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Orban May Win Hungary Election by Comfortable Margin, Poll Shows

Tender Branson

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Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is poised to win Sunday’s general election by a comfortable margin, though not by enough to secure another supermajority in parliament, according to the latest poll.

Hungarian-Prime-Minister-Orban-attends-a-foundation-stone-laying-ceremony-for-a.jpg


His Fidesz party has 50% backing among decided voters, compared with 40% for a six-party opposition alliance, according to the Median poll for weekly news magazine HVG. The survey was taken at the end of March, HVG said, without being more specific. Other polls have forecast a tighter race.

In the 199-seat Hungarian Parliament, the 10-point gap may translate into 128 seats for Fidesz -- shy of the 133 needed for a legislative supermajority, but well clear of the minimum 100 to form a government. United for Hungary, the opposition alliance, may win 71 seats, according to the poll. Two smaller parties are close to clearing the threshold of votes to enter parliament.

The vote in Hungary has been overshadowed by the war in neighboring Ukraine. Orban has walked a tightrope, trying to create distance between himself and President Vladimir Putin, with whom he’s cultivated close relations over the past decade, while offering limited support for Ukraine out of concern that he may antagonize Russia’s leader.

The opposition has tried to brand Orban as Putin’s pawn and reduce the election to a choice between East and West. But the four-term premier has boosted support with a message that he’d keep Hungary out of the war.

Nine in 10 Fidesz voters believed the party would win the election, double the share of opposition supporters, HVG said, citing the Median poll. Some 43% of Fidesz voters also said they believed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was justified, compared with 9% of voters backing the opposition alliance.


That would be a shame. But it would be a win for White Nationalists such as Republicans, heading into the US elections in November.
 
I’m disappointed, but not surprised.

Hungary has a history of right wing governments predating WWII.

Indeed, Hungary always played both sides against one another in the various geopolitical skirmishes of the era.

They were never particularly hostile to the Nazi regieme in Berlin before the war.

So much so, that the Nazis didn’t occupy Hungary until well into 1944, by which time the Russians were advancing along the entire Eastern Front.

And since the war, Hungary hosted right wing Soviet governments throughout the Cold War, except for the brief shining spring of 1956.
 
In Serbia, there’s also a parliament & president election on Sunday.

Which incumbent Alexander Vucic from the SNS should easily win (60%+ in both cases).

Like Orban, Vucic is also an authoritarian. The media in both countries is considered „not free“.
 
A couple other pollsters show a bit of a tighter race, but generally Orban and his far-right populist Fidesz are ahead by around 5% on average.

The election is tomorrow.

There is a general consensus among pollsters though that turnout will be exceptionally high and could reach 75-80% - which would be the highest turnout since democratic elections started in Hungary.
 
The situation in neighboring Hungary explained to US readers:

Orban is a very corrupt authoritarian politician, but not an incompetent one. No scandal really sticks on him and he managed to create a system that benefits his friends within Fidesz (his party) a lot financially. State money is secretly directed into their pockets, they get rich and so they cultivate the image of the party - because, as a result, the job boom in the past 12 years under Orban has actually lifted many Hungarian people out of poverty.

So, economically speaking, Orban was not bad for Hungarians. Coupled with a nationalist tone (brown migrants not welcome !), it has galvanized support to a level that Fidesz gets at least 45% support in any election.

The opposition has formed a joint list this time to appear much more competitive.

Hungary has an absurd election system thanks to election reforms by Orban and his party:

It is highly gerrymandered and favours the largest party in an election (Fidesz), because half of the seats in parliament are elected in constituency seats, where a party with 50% will win ALL seats vs. a fractured opposition where the 2nd place party only gets like 15%. It means that they have no chances to get a majority of seats in parliament, because the proportional count won’t compensate for their overall result.

So, if there is a united opposition candidate in each constituency, the chances are much higher to win the seats there and be competitive in the proportional count that compensates for their overall election result.

But even if the united opposition list somehow gets a majority of seats in parliament and ousts Orban, it would come at a heavy price for real leftists.

The united opposition is NOT entirely leftist as one might think: a big chunk is Jobbik, a former Neonazi party (!) that reformed itself a bit in the last years and is now mainstream right-wing. The Neonazi wing split from the party and will run as a party on its own (3% in polls).

And: the United Opposition candidate is Peter Marki-Zay, a conservative church-goer and no leftist, but who says he’d govern moderately and would not hunt and bully LGBT people for example like Orban.

The situation would be similar to a parliamentary election in Utah, in which a Trump-GOP runs with 50% support, against a Spencer Cox-led GOP (= Utah Governor) who is more moderate and doesn’t persecute minorities or LGBT/trans people …

Hungary, like Utah, votes ca. 70% for far-right / right parties tomorrow !
 
Polls are opening in about half an hour.

I will post live updates about the election today - such as turnout reports etc. and the results as they come in.
 
How sad, Hungarians determined to return to authoritarianism more than ever.
 
Orban = Europe’s DeSantis.

Along with the parliamentary election in Hungary on Sunday, there’s also a anti-LGBT referendum:

Good, it’s time to start pushing back on the alphabet people. They need to start keeping their disorders to themselves and stop trying to groom children for abuse.

But they won’t, because disordered sexualities can’t generally lead to reproduction they can only keep their factions alive by grooming the children into them.
 
How sad, Hungarians determined to return to authoritarianism more than ever.
Wrong, Hungary was authoritarian now it’s democratic. Because Orban destroyed the power of non elected entities like the press and the courts which frequently are centers of anti-democratic elite leftist rule.

American right wingers should really take notice, the way to improve democracy is to use government power to take power away from centers of atheistic ideological elites
 
Wrong, Hungary was authoritarian now it’s democratic. Because Orban destroyed the power of non elected entities like the press and the courts which frequently are centers of anti-democratic elite leftist rule.

American right wingers should really take notice, the way to improve democracy is to use government power to take power away from centers of atheistic ideological elites

Dude, please do us a favour and stop your racist & fascist posting.

It is unbearable.
 
And since the war, Hungary hosted right wing Soviet ????????? governments throughout the Cold War, except for the brief shining spring of 1956.

Soviet governments were never Right wing.
 
Orban's opposition is a coalition of both left wing and right wing parties who support real democracy for Hungary.
Orban has made Hungary a real democracy, all power has been consolidated in the parliament and anti-democratic power centers have been destroyed. So I don’t know what you’re complaining about.

Well I know exactly what you’re complaining about, it’s just you’re being dishonest by claiming this is about democracy, you really want a leftist oligopoly. Leftists never accept an anti-leftist democratic result as legitimate. Hence why prop 8 in California was never allowed to become law.
 
Dude, please do us a favour and stop your racist & fascist posting.

It is unbearable.
Race was never mentioned anywhere in the post, nor was fascism. Was Hitler’s government based on the power of an elected assembly? Certainly not after the Reichstag
 
that's why everyone votes for them, yea?
Like I said it is sad that Hungarians have been convinced by an autocrat through acts like the suppression of opposition and control of the media that authoritarianism is the way forward.
 
Orban has made Hungary a real democracy, all power has been consolidated in the parliament and anti-democratic power centers have been destroyed. So I don’t know what you’re complaining about.

Well I know exactly what you’re complaining about, it’s just you’re being dishonest by claiming this is about democracy, you really want a leftist oligopoly. Leftists never accept an anti-leftist democratic result as legitimate. Hence why prop 8 in California was never allowed to become law.

You have an absurd fascist impression of what „democracy“ is.

Eliminating the pillars of a democratic state by going after the opposition, jailing them and getting rid of independent media and staffing courts with their own people. Is not democratic, but Nazi and fascist.
 
that's why everyone votes for them, yea?
To a leftist democracy is only legitimate insofar as it produces left wing policy results. Look at how leftists including the prime minister of Canada were heartbroken when Fidel Castro died, they would have no problem with murdering their opponents en masse if they could. Just Google Jose Calvo Sotelo, or more recently Jay Danielson, the Trump supporter assasinated by Antifa in Portland whom the left has never condemned without qualifiers.
 
Like I said it is sad that Hungarians have been convinced by an autocrat through acts like the suppression of opposition and control of the media that authoritarianism is the way forward.
Why is not? The left in America and Canada are completely in control of the media. Do you condemn this?
 
Race was never mentioned anywhere in the post, nor was fascism. Was Hitler’s government based on the power of an elected assembly? Certainly not after the Reichstag

You have repeatedly praised Orban before, for keeping the brown migrants out of Hungary and protecting its white heritage. That’s very racist, because it also highlights a double standard when it comes to refugees fleeing war: white refugees from Ukraine = good. Syrian refugees = bad, because they are brown.
 
Why is not? The left in America and Canada are completely in control of the media. Do you condemn this?

That is only your impression. The news media in the US, Canada, Western Europe is considered free & fair and in the hands of nobody particular. Mostly in the hands of corporate entities with some money, who lean center-right. But not exclusively.
 
Like I said it is sad that Hungarians have been convinced by an autocrat through acts like the suppression of opposition and control of the media that authoritarianism is the way forward.
Yes, it's "real democracy" when they vote for you, but authoritarian when they vote for Orban.
 
You have repeatedly praised Orban before, for keeping the brown migrants out of Hungary and protecting its white heritage. That’s very racist,
Actually it seems you’re being very racist. You seem to have irrational and abiding hatred of Hungarians and their heritage.
because it also highlights a double standard when it comes to refugees fleeing war: white refugees from Ukraine = good.
That’s partially true, Ukranians aren’t known to gang rape women, whereas Afghan migrants will specifically target European women for brutal gang attacks to show their dominance in the new society
Syrian refugees = bad, because they are brown.
And because they were nearly all military age males leaving a hotbed of Islamic extremism. Plus those men were likely subject to Syrian conscription and draft dodging is a crime and people don’t like criminals living among them
 
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