Orban May Win Hungary Election by Comfortable Margin, Poll Shows

[EMNofSeattle]

Your idol Pinochet literally ordered a terrorist attack on American soil. Spare us the posturing.

The Kennedy Admin also drew up plans to orchestrate false flag terror attacks on American soil.

Also Pinochet is not my “idol”

 

[Fishking]

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is poised to win Sunday’s general election by a comfortable margin, though not by enough to secure another supermajority in parliament, according to the latest poll.

His Fidesz party has 50% backing among decided voters, compared with 40% for a six-party opposition alliance, according to the Median poll for weekly news magazine HVG. The survey was taken at the end of March, HVG said, without being more specific. Other polls have forecast a tighter race.

In the 199-seat Hungarian Parliament, the 10-point gap may translate into 128 seats for Fidesz -- shy of the 133 needed for a legislative supermajority, but well clear of the minimum 100 to form a government. United for Hungary, the opposition alliance, may win 71 seats, according to the poll. Two smaller parties are close to clearing the threshold of votes to enter parliament.

The vote in Hungary has been overshadowed by the war in neighboring Ukraine. Orban has walked a tightrope, trying to create distance between himself and President Vladimir Putin, with whom he’s cultivated close relations over the past decade, while offering limited support for Ukraine out of concern that he may antagonize Russia’s leader.

The opposition has tried to brand Orban as Putin’s pawn and reduce the election to a choice between East and West. But the four-term premier has boosted support with a message that he’d keep Hungary out of the war.

Nine in 10 Fidesz voters believed the party would win the election, double the share of opposition supporters, HVG said, citing the Median poll. Some 43% of Fidesz voters also said they believed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was justified, compared with 9% of voters backing the opposition alliance.

Orban May Win Hungary Election by Comfortable Margin, Poll Shows

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is poised to win Sunday’s general election by a comfortable margin, though not by enough to secure another supermajority in parliament, according to the latest poll.

www.bloomberg.com

That would be a shame. But it would be a win for White Nationalists such as Republicans, heading into the US elections in November.

How dare he not engage in activity that could increase tensions and cause bigger problems for his country! Doesn't he know that he should put other countries before his own?!

 

[EMNofSeattle]

How dare he not engage in activity that could increase tensions and cause bigger problems for his country! Doesn't he know that he should put other countries before his own?!

It’s amazing how quick the open borders left are now staunch Ukrainian patriots. You’re either with us or you’re with evil Putler.

Stepan Bandera will be added to Mount Rushmore before you know it.

 

[Tender Branson]

Turnout update until 3pm:

53% (-0.9% compared to 2018)

In the morning, turnout was 4% lower than last time, so it’s catching up.

Final turnout was 70% last time, so, it’s on track for 70-71% this time.

Not as good as in Austria (76-80%), or Scandinavia (85%), but pretty good for Eastern Europe.

 

[Tigerace117]

The Kennedy Admin also drew up plans to orchestrate false flag terror attacks on American soil.

Also Pinochet is not my “idol”

Actual terrorist attacks are far more important than hairbrained plans that were never even remotely considered for implementation.

Suuuuure he isn’t bud

 

[EMNofSeattle]

Actual terrorist attacks are far more important than hairbrained plans that were never even remotely considered for implementation.

Suuuuure he isn’t bud

I mean I know you operate in a binary where communism is good and any reaction to it is bad, so that might be where your confusion comes from, but understanding historical events in context does not mean one idolizes a particular political figure

 

[multivita-man]

The situation in neighboring Hungary explained to US readers:

Orban is a very corrupt authoritarian politician, but not an incompetent one. No scandal really sticks on him and he managed to create a system that benefits his friends within Fidesz (his party) a lot financially. State money is secretly directed into their pockets, they get rich and so they cultivate the image of the party - because, as a result, the job boom in the past 12 years under Orban has actually lifted many Hungarian people out of poverty.

So, economically speaking, Orban was not bad for Hungarians. Coupled with a nationalist tone (brown migrants not welcome !), it has galvanized support to a level that Fidesz gets at least 45% support in any election.

The opposition has formed a joint list this time to appear much more competitive.

Hungary has an absurd election system thanks to election reforms by Orban and his party:

It is highly gerrymandered and favours the largest party in an election (Fidesz), because half of the seats in parliament are elected in constituency seats, where a party with 50% will win ALL seats vs. a fractured opposition where the 2nd place party only gets like 15%. It means that they have no chances to get a majority of seats in parliament, because the proportional count won’t compensate for their overall result.

So, if there is a united opposition candidate in each constituency, the chances are much higher to win the seats there and be competitive in the proportional count that compensates for their overall election result.

But even if the united opposition list somehow gets a majority of seats in parliament and ousts Orban, it would come at a heavy price for real leftists.

The united opposition is NOT entirely leftist as one might think: a big chunk is Jobbik, a former Neonazi party (!) that reformed itself a bit in the last years and is now mainstream right-wing. The Neonazi wing split from the party and will run as a party on its own (3% in polls).

And: the United Opposition candidate is Peter Marki-Zay, a conservative church-goer and no leftist, but who says he’d govern moderately and would not hunt and bully LGBT people for example like Orban.

The situation would be similar to a parliamentary election in Utah, in which a Trump-GOP runs with 50% support, against a Spencer Cox-led GOP (= Utah Governor) who is more moderate and doesn’t persecute minorities or LGBT/trans people …

Hungary, like Utah, votes ca. 70% for far-right / right parties tomorrow !

Thank you for this enlightening, informative post.

I've read about Orban, Fidesz, and Hungary, but you summed it up a way that's easy to process. I think Republicans are trying to create their own version of the Fidesz here, and moving toward illiberal democracy.

I got into an exchange on another thread in which someone remarked that the Republicans wanted to do away with all democracy, and I don't think that's the case. Rather, they want what Hungary has, what Poland has, or what Turkey has (to differing degrees of course). The right wing in America desires a political and judicial system that work hand-in-glove to produce outcomes that are, technically democratic, but against powerless political opposition. In this type of system, there's a chance that the ruling party could lose, and in some cases, they do lose, but the system is such that they lose the battles, and not the war.

 

[multivita-man]

To a leftist democracy is only legitimate insofar as it produces left wing policy results. Look at how leftists including the prime minister of Canada were heartbroken when Fidel Castro died, they would have no problem with murdering their opponents en masse if they could. Just Google Jose Calvo Sotelo, or more recently Jay Danielson, the Trump supporter assasinated by Antifa in Portland whom the left has never condemned without qualifiers.

This is sheer nonsense.

 

[multivita-man]

Yes, it's "real democracy" when they vote for you, but authoritarian when they vote for Orban.

That's not what he is saying at all; you're just making that up.

 

[Tigerace117]

I mean I know you operate in a binary where communism is good and any reaction to it is bad, so that might be where your confusion comes from, but understanding historical events in context does not mean one idolizes a particular political figure

Gee, on one hand there’s your idol Pinochet ordering a terrorist attack on American soil.

On the other, a hairbrained plan....with zero evidence it was ever seriously considered.

I know which one is more relevant.

But hey, I get that to someone who gleefully supports the torture and murder of innocent people in the name of “but communism!” setting off car bombs in America is no big deal.

 

[EMNofSeattle]

Gee, on one hand there’s your idol Pinochet ordering a terrorist attack on American soil.

On the other, a hairbrained plan....with zero evidence it was ever seriously considered.

I know which one is more relevant.

But hey, I get that to someone who gleefully supports the torture and murder of innocent people in the name of “but communism!” setting off car bombs in America is no big deal.

So did Viktor Orban set off a car bomb in America? Is he planning to? What’s the point of the diversion?

 

[Tigerace117]

So did Viktor Orban set off a car bomb in America? Is he planning to? What’s the point of the diversion?

You squealed about the left supposedly “supporting tyrants” when in reality your idols are every bit as vicious.....or many times, far worse.

 

[DarkWizard12]

That's not what he is saying at all; you're just making that up.

he equated his opposition parties with "real democracy", yet when "real democracy" happens, and voters choose another party(Orban's), am I to think that's not real democracy?

 

[multivita-man]

he equated his opposition parties with "real democracy", yet when "real democracy" happens, and voters choose another party(Orban's), am I to think that's not real democracy?

It's not a true democracy when one party uses the machinery of government to gain unfair advantages. We can debate what 'fair' and 'unfair' mean, I suppose, but the OP has described how Orban has tilted the system in his favor. As I said in my own post, Hungary's democracy is a democracy, but not a liberal one, and not one that represents the cross section of the population, ethnically or ideologically.

 

[DarkWizard12]

It's not a true democracy when one party uses the machinery of government to gain unfair advantages.

What's a "unfair" advantage, exactly? What has orban's party done that the opposition parties have not also done?

We can debate what 'fair' and 'unfair' mean, I suppose, but the OP has described how Orban has tilted the system in his favor. As I said in my own post, Hungary's democracy is a democracy, but not a liberal one,

well cry me a river! People chose not to be liberal today. oh the **** well. You'll just have to either a) wait until they vote for a liberal government, or b) be more palatable to the voters there!

and not one that represents the cross section of the population, ethnically or ideologically.

apparantly it does because they voted, and that's what they got. It's not even close.

 

[gbg3]

So, economically speaking, Orban was not bad for Hungarians.

This is always good. If his governing has successfully lifted people out of poverty, as you discussed, I can imagine he's maintaining popularity.

Orban = Europe’s DeSantis.

Nice!

Thanks for the thread. I was unaware of the election happening today and I'm glad for the election info.

 

[Tender Branson]

Turnout at 5pm (from all precincts within Hungary, excl. voters eligible abroad):

62.9% (-0.3% vs. 2018 election)

So, basically the same as in the last election (which had pretty high turnout) and it could still rise in the last two hours.

One of the factors contributing to the lower turnout in the first hours of election day could be the weather. In the morning, Hungary woke up to temperatures close to the freezing point and, in many places, snowfall which later turned into rain. Now it is partly sunny here in Budapest with the temperature reaching 7°C.

 

[Tender Branson]

On the same day as the election, a referendum on four questions regarding child protection is also being held in Hungary.

The questions are:

• Do you support the teaching of sexual orientation to minors in public education institutions without parental consent?
• Do you support the promotion of sex reassignment therapy for underage children?
• Do you support the unrestricted exposure of underage children to sexually explicit media content that may affect their development?
• Do you support the showing of sex-change media content to minors?

During the campaign, Fidesz-KDNP asked voters to vote against all four proposals. In contrast, the United for Hungary opposition alliance asked their supporters to invalidate the ballot by writing crosses in both the “yes” and “no” boxes.

 

[Tender Branson]

Here is a map of the 2018 election and who won which region, by margin:

Here is a map of turnout today until 5pm:

Országgyűlési választások 2022 - Portfolio.hu

Országgyűlési választások 2022

www.portfolio.hu

Turnout is very high in the West (bordering Austria) and in Budapest, but low in the East (bordering Ukraine).

The western borderlands to Austria with high turnout are strong Orban areas, Budapest where turnout is high, is of course an opposition stronghold. The East, with low turnout, is also strong Orban territory.

Moral of the story: good news for everyone.

High turnout in Budapest + suburbs is good for the opposition, high turnout in the West good for Orban. Eastern low turnout is bad news for Orban.

 

[Callen]

I read reports in the Globe and Mail today that the race had gotten very tight since the Russian invasion of Ukraine because Orban and Putin are very close and the Hungarian people are not happy with that. It is expected that unlike his past wins any Orban win will be very narrow. A very conservative father of seven had managed to form a six-party coalition in opposition by focusing on Orban's ties to Putin and his authoritarianism. The Hungarian people have become very sympathetic towards the Ukrainian people recalling their own suppression.

The Globe has a paywall but here is an article from a European outlet saying similar things. We'll see how it goes but Europe does not need another Putin.... the world doesn't!

All you need to know about Hungary's unprecedented election

Hungary's opposition has gone to extraordinary lengths to oust longtime prime minister Viktor Orban.

www.euronews.com

 

[PeteEU]

The opposition got 5 minutes of TV time in the whole election campaign.

 

[Callen]

The opposition got 5 minutes of TV time in the whole election campaign.

Yes, I read an article about the media controls and changes to election laws Orban put in place to quash any opposition. The leader of the coalition is counting on social media and disgust with Russia to get him over the line. How any American can admire a man like Orban is astounding.

 

[Tender Branson]

This is interesting.

It confirms what I posted earlier: combining forces could pay off for the United Opposition, because they win more direct seats in constituencies and would very likely keep Fidesz below the 2/3 constitutional supermajority and if they have a really good day, even below a majority of seats:

 

[PeteEU]

Yes, I read an article about the media controls and changes to election laws Orban put in place to quash any opposition. The leader of the coalition is counting on social media and disgust with Russia to get him over the line. How any American can admire a man like Orban is astounding.

To be honest, Orban is the modern right wing politicians wet dream.

Conservatives have always been very authoritarian going back centuries, but during times of opposition that can win elections, the conservative movements across the world has moved more and more to the left. But their basic instinct of being anti-democratic and authoritarian has not gone away... it is just they cant get away with it in most places.

People forget history and that is the problem. The conservative movement dominated politics for centuries until a guy called Marx and a few friends started movements in the middle to late 1800s. This lead to arguably the worst year for the conservative movement ever... 1848. Some countries learned to adapt for a time, while others did not. But when the Czar was overthrown in Russia, then the European countries started to change big time as the conservative movement could not rely on military might to keep the people in their place.

But that does not mean that these traditional conservatives dont want to go back to the "good old days"...

 

[Tender Branson]

Interesting side fact:

Hungary had a total of 8.3 million registered voters domestic + abroad in 2018.

Today, the number is 8.2 million - 100.000 lower - because Hungary has a lot more deaths than births per year and it isn’t compensated by immigration. In fact, 60.000 more people die each year than are born and it only has an annual surplus of 10.000 immigrants. Not enough.

Also, the number of registered voters within Hungary dropped by 200.000 in 4 years (the results of above), while the number abroad rose by 100.000 registered voters.

Hungary has a large diaspora, which lives primarily in Romania, Germany, Austria, the UK and North America. Not many of them are registered to vote, because they don’t care about Hungarian elections (too long away), but Orban is courting them. 95% of them voted for Fidesz in 2018.