Orban May Win Hungary Election by Comfortable Margin, Poll Shows

[DarkWizard12]

You have repeatedly praised Orban before, for keeping the brown migrants out of Hungary and protecting its white heritage. That’s very racist, because it also highlights a double standard when it comes to refugees fleeing war: white refugees from Ukraine = good. Syrian refugees = bad, because they are brown.

how racist! Everyone knows the original hungarians were black!

 

[EMNofSeattle]

That is only your impression. The news media in the US, Canada, Western Europe is considered free & fair

By leftists, and leftists only. In Western Europe if you criticize Islam or tell transvestites they can’t really change their sex you can be arrested for hate speech, or killed.

and in the hands of nobody particular. Mostly in the hands of corporate entities with some money, who lean center-right. But not exclusively.

The media is entirely staffed by far leftists with very few exceptions

 

[Tender Branson]

Actually it seems you’re being very racist. You seem to have irrational and abiding hatred of Hungarians and their heritage.

That’s partially true, Ukranians aren’t known to gang rape women, whereas Afghan migrants will specifically target European women for brutal gang attacks to show their dominance in the new society

And because they were nearly all military age males leaving a hotbed of Islamic extremism. Plus those men were likely subject to Syrian conscription and draft dodging is a crime and people don’t like criminals living among them

I don’t have anything against Hungarian heritage, as long as Hungarian people are not turning to radicalism & anti-democratic behaviour.

Besides, 99.9% of Syrian & Afghan refugees are NOT criminal & raping women. These cases are very rare.

 

[EMNofSeattle]

I don’t have anything against Hungarian heritage, as long as Hungarian people are not turning to radicalism & anti-democratic behaviour.

In other words, you hate Hungarian heritage and you only love Hungarians if they agree to go with your left-wing political philosophy.

Besides, 99.9% of Syrian & Afghan refugees are NOT criminal & raping women.

Yeah I’m gonna go with this is total horse crap right now.

These cases are very rare.

No they’re not. Rates of sexual violence in countries that took refugees have increased by orders of magnitude.

 

[Tender Branson]

There are 2 other major elections today:

# Serbia president + parliament (another autocrat running for re-election, with Aleksandar Vucic)
# Costa Rica president (runoff)

In both countries, the rightwing candidates are expected to win, just like in Hungary.

Hungary & Serbia are autocratic pseudo-democratic countries, where press freedoms were limited and power concentrated in one party/one man.

Costa Rica on the other hand is a full democracy.

 

[Tender Branson]

In other words, you hate Hungarian heritage and you only love Hungarians if they agree to go with your left-wing political philosophy.

Yeah I’m gonna go with this is total horse crap right now.

No they’re not. Rates of sexual violence in countries that took refugees have increased by orders of magnitude.

You don’t get it:

Autocratic countries eventually start to bully people and minorities (Hungary, Poland, Florida) or, kill them: Russia / China (war in Georgia, Ukraine) or killing the Uygurs in concentration camps.

Of course I will oppose such tendencies.

Besides, the level of sexual violence has not risen significantly in the last few years. You can read any crime report in Europe. There were isolated incidents between 2015-17, but after that the crime situation improved and crime is down to a very low level in Western Europe. Murders are low, rapes hardly happen.

 

[EMNofSeattle]

You don’t get it:

Autocratic countries eventually start to bully people and minorities (Hungary, Poland, Florida)

I mean it is true that people with disordered sexual practices and proclivities are a minority of the population. But I don’t consider making them keep away from children to be a form of bullying.

or, kill them: Russia / China (war in Georgia, Ukraine) or killing the Uygurs in concentration camps.

These are a bunch of unrelated things. First off, the Warren Georgia was to prevent an actual cultural genocide. The Georgians instituted in attack of aggression against the Ossetians To forcibly incorporate them into a political community which they never assented to joining.

Of course I will oppose such tendencies.

So you are against democracy if it goes against leftism.

Besides, the level of sexual violence has not risen significantly in the last few years. You can read any crime report in Europe. There were isolated incidents between 2015-17, but after that the crime situation improved and crime is down to a very low level in Western Europe. Murders are low, rapes hardly happen.

It raised spectacularly in 2015. It got so bad that police forces stop reporting the authenticity of attackers to protect migrants.

 

[Tender Branson]

No they’re not. Rates of sexual violence in countries that took refugees have increased by orders of magnitude.

I AM from a country that took in a record amount of refugees from Syria & Afghanistan between 2011 and now.

Second only to Sweden. Austria took in 300.000 immigrants from the Middle East in the past 11 years.

That is an equivalent of 12 million Muslim refugees for the US !

Yet, despite this and the fact they came from war zones, our crime rate today is very low. Murders are low, overall crime is 50% lower than in 2011.

Rapes are unchanged from 2011. You cannot say that rapes are up because today, women are more confident in reporting a rape to law enforcement than 50 years ago, when women were still in the kitchen and said to themselves: why report a rape to police when nobody believes me anyway ? Numbers of rapes are up as a result of more and more women being brave to report it and go after their abusers !

 

[EMNofSeattle]

I AM from a country that took in a record amount of refugees from Syria & Afghanistan between 2011 and now.

Second only to Sweden. Austria took in 300.000 immigrants from the Middle East in the past 11 years.

That is an equivalent of 12 million Muslim refugees for the US !

Yet, despite this and the fact they came from war zones, our crime rate today is very low. Murders are low, overall crime is 50% lower than in 2011.

Rapes are unchanged from 2011. You cannot say that rapes are up because today, women are more confident in reporting a rape to law enforcement than 50 years ago, when women were still in the kitchen and said to themselves: why report a rape to police when nobody believes me anyway ? Numbers of rapes are up as a result of more and more women being brave to report it and go after their abusers !

I am not going to take your word for it though. I have to look at what happened in Austria particularly. But you are insisting that Austria somehow avoided what was a major problem in Sweden Germany in the United Kingdom, and I simply do not believe you. If anything I would think it is far more likely that the government is changing records and altering numbers then the idea that reps went down after taking in a bunch of Muslims.

 

[Tender Branson]

I am not going to take your word for it though. I have to look at what happened in Austria particularly. But you are insisting that Austria somehow avoided what was a major problem in Sweden Germany in the United Kingdom, and I simply do not believe you. If anything I would think it is far more likely that the government is changing records and altering numbers then the idea that reps went down after taking in a bunch of Muslims.

No numbers are altered.

Austria even had a far-right Interior Minister between 2017-19 and while there are isolated shocking cases of rape every year (I posted about a 13-year old Austrian girl last summer who was gang-raped and killed by 4 Afghan refugees), the number of rapes overall didn’t increase in the past 10 years:

 

[ChickenTendies]

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is poised to win Sunday’s general election by a comfortable margin, though not by enough to secure another supermajority in parliament, according to the latest poll.

His Fidesz party has 50% backing among decided voters, compared with 40% for a six-party opposition alliance, according to the Median poll for weekly news magazine HVG. The survey was taken at the end of March, HVG said, without being more specific. Other polls have forecast a tighter race.

In the 199-seat Hungarian Parliament, the 10-point gap may translate into 128 seats for Fidesz -- shy of the 133 needed for a legislative supermajority, but well clear of the minimum 100 to form a government. United for Hungary, the opposition alliance, may win 71 seats, according to the poll. Two smaller parties are close to clearing the threshold of votes to enter parliament.

The vote in Hungary has been overshadowed by the war in neighboring Ukraine. Orban has walked a tightrope, trying to create distance between himself and President Vladimir Putin, with whom he’s cultivated close relations over the past decade, while offering limited support for Ukraine out of concern that he may antagonize Russia’s leader.

The opposition has tried to brand Orban as Putin’s pawn and reduce the election to a choice between East and West. But the four-term premier has boosted support with a message that he’d keep Hungary out of the war.

Nine in 10 Fidesz voters believed the party would win the election, double the share of opposition supporters, HVG said, citing the Median poll. Some 43% of Fidesz voters also said they believed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was justified, compared with 9% of voters backing the opposition alliance.

Orban May Win Hungary Election by Comfortable Margin, Poll Shows

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is poised to win Sunday’s general election by a comfortable margin, though not by enough to secure another supermajority in parliament, according to the latest poll.

www.bloomberg.com

That would be a shame. But it would be a win for White Nationalists such as Republicans, heading into the US elections in November.

War is always good for re-election

 

[EMNofSeattle]

No numbers are altered.

Austria even had a far-right Interior Minister between 2017-19 and while there are isolated shocking cases of rape every year (I posted about a 13-year old Austrian girl last summer who was gang-raped and killed by 4 Afghan refugees), the number of rapes overall didn’t increase in the past 10 years:

It doesn’t even matter who the minister is, it matters who the far left civil service is.

They would absolutely alter the numbers, because you now have to insist a Trend occurring everywhere else isn’t happening in this one place. I don’t believe it.

 

[PeteEU]

My prediction is he will get his supermajority and not pass 50% of the vote.

 

[Tender Branson]

It doesn’t even matter who the minister is, it matters who the far left civil service is.

They would absolutely alter the numbers, because you now have to insist a Trend occurring everywhere else isn’t happening in this one place. I don’t believe it.

You are talking bullsh#t.

We don’t have a leftist civil service.

Crimes are recorded by the police, which are made up of disproportionately right-wingers.

It doesn’t matter if you are in the US or Austria, most police officers are right-wing.

 

[Tender Branson]

My prediction is he will get his supermajority and not pass 50% of the vote.

That is … unlikely.

Orban and his Fidesz are not having the same advantage they had in 2018, when they got 49% of the vote but more than 2/3 of seats.

They ran against a fractured opposition then, winning every single constituency (around 100 seats).

This time, they have fiercer united opposition candidates in these constituencies who will win several seats, maybe 30-50 of the 100.

Orban & Fidesz could get 45-55% of the proportional vote, but is therefore very unlikely to get more than 55-60% of seats overall.

 

[Tender Branson]

Hungary:

Turnout until 1pm was about 40% - which is ca. 2% lower than in 2018.

 

[Tigerace117]

To a leftist democracy is only legitimate insofar as it produces left wing policy results. Look at how leftists including the prime minister of Canada were heartbroken when Fidel Castro died, they would have no problem with murdering their opponents en masse if they could. Just Google Jose Calvo Sotelo, or more recently Jay Danielson, the Trump supporter assasinated by Antifa in Portland whom the left has never condemned without qualifiers.

Your idol Pinochet literally ordered a terrorist attack on American soil. Spare us the posturing.

 

[PeteEU]

That is … unlikely.

Orban and his Fidesz are not having the same advantage they had in 2018, when they got 49% of the vote but more than 2/3 of seats.

They ran against a fractured opposition then, winning every single constituency (around 100 seats).

This time, they have fiercer united opposition candidates in these constituencies who will win several seats, maybe 30-50 of the 100.

Orban & Fidesz could get 45-55% of the proportional vote, but is therefore very unlikely to get more than 55-60% of seats overall.

You have far far too much faith in so called Hungarian democracy. Orban will win a super majority with less than 50% of the vote, as he has done the last many elections. United opposition means nothing.

And I hope I get to eat my words, but doubt it. Democracy is dead in Hungary and has been for a long time.

 

[Tender Branson]

You have far far too much faith in so called Hungarian democracy. Orban will win a super majority with less than 50% of the vote, as he has done the last many elections. United opposition means nothing.

And I hope I get to eat my words, but doubt it. Democracy is dead in Hungary and has been for a long time.

Remember that Orban/Fidesz only barely got 67% and a supermajority in 2018, with 49% of the vote.

I think they only got a supermajority by 1 single seat out of 199.

Now, with the United Opposition, they should make a lot of seats in urban and suburban areas winnable.

Unless voters from the opposition have no discipline and don’t vote for their constituency candidates - which would be horrible, but kinda understandable.

If you have a Jobbik lead candidate in your constituency, as a leftist voter would you vote for them ?

Jobbik is part of United Opposition, but used to be a Neonazi party (!) - as a leftist voter I would really have to hold my nose to vote for such a lead candidate. I’m not sure how many such candidates there are though.

 

[MTAtech]

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is poised to win Sunday’s general election by a comfortable margin, though not by enough to secure another supermajority in parliament, according to the latest poll.

His Fidesz party has 50% backing among decided voters, compared with 40% for a six-party opposition alliance, according to the Median poll for weekly news magazine HVG. The survey was taken at the end of March, HVG said, without being more specific. Other polls have forecast a tighter race.

In the 199-seat Hungarian Parliament, the 10-point gap may translate into 128 seats for Fidesz -- shy of the 133 needed for a legislative supermajority, but well clear of the minimum 100 to form a government. United for Hungary, the opposition alliance, may win 71 seats, according to the poll. Two smaller parties are close to clearing the threshold of votes to enter parliament.

The vote in Hungary has been overshadowed by the war in neighboring Ukraine. Orban has walked a tightrope, trying to create distance between himself and President Vladimir Putin, with whom he’s cultivated close relations over the past decade, while offering limited support for Ukraine out of concern that he may antagonize Russia’s leader.

The opposition has tried to brand Orban as Putin’s pawn and reduce the election to a choice between East and West. But the four-term premier has boosted support with a message that he’d keep Hungary out of the war.

Nine in 10 Fidesz voters believed the party would win the election, double the share of opposition supporters, HVG said, citing the Median poll. Some 43% of Fidesz voters also said they believed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was justified, compared with 9% of voters backing the opposition alliance.

Orban May Win Hungary Election by Comfortable Margin, Poll Shows

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is poised to win Sunday’s general election by a comfortable margin, though not by enough to secure another supermajority in parliament, according to the latest poll.

www.bloomberg.com

That would be a shame. But it would be a win for White Nationalists such as Republicans, heading into the US elections in November.

Elections in Hungary are not fair.

Fidesz, used its years in power with its two-thirds majority in the parliament to redesign every aspect of the electoral system to its advantage.

Fidesz also overwhelmingly dominates the offline media and has closed off almost all avenues through which opposition parties can reach the electorate. It’s difficult to throw out the ruling party when the ruling party controls the media.

The Parliamentary elections are like Congressional elections in the U.S., where the Republicans can win a solid majority even if they get a minority of the votes.

 

[Tender Branson]

Elections in Hungary are not fair.

Fidesz, used its years in power with its two-thirds majority in the parliament to redesign every aspect of the electoral system to its advantage.

Fidesz also overwhelmingly dominates the offline media and has closed off almost all avenues through which opposition parties can reach the electorate. It’s difficult to throw out the ruling party when the ruling party controls the media.

The Parliamentary elections are like Congressional elections in the U.S., where the Republicans can win a solid majority even if they get a minority of the votes.

All of this is correct, but the gerrymandering by Fidesz and election system re-design in their favour (using the Republican playbook) are weakened in this election today, because the opposition is not fractured anymore like in previous years, but a United Bloc. This is giving them more and better chances today of winning many direct constituency seats. In 2018 and before, an opposition party with 15% couldn’t win a direct constituency seat against a 50% Fidesz. This time, they can. We’ll see how it plays out.

 

[MTAtech]

You have far far too much faith in so called Hungarian democracy. Orban will win a super majority with less than 50% of the vote, as he has done the last many elections. United opposition means nothing.

And I hope I get to eat my words, but doubt it. Democracy is dead in Hungary and has been for a long time.

Hungary is the model Republicans are using in America. Create districts that bunch Democrats together while making other districts where Republicans win by slimmer majorities.

Then, replace unbiased election officials with partisans, who decide the outcome of presidential elections.

 

[PeteEU]

Remember that Orban/Fidesz only barely got 67% and a supermajority in 2018, with 49% of the vote.

Yes... did you actually read what you wrote? 49% gave 67% of the seats...

I think they only got a supermajority by 1 single seat out of 199.

No.. they held the seats they had.. 133, aka a supermajority. So again, 67% of the seats, for 49% of the vote.

Now, with the United Opposition, they should make a lot of seats in urban and suburban areas winnable.

On paper sure.. but you really think that Orban wont fiddle with the election?

Unless voters from the opposition have no discipline and don’t vote for their constituency candidates - which would be horrible, but kinda understandable.

Or are intimidated by the Orban regime to not vote. You pointed out that turnout is down.

If you have a Jobbik lead candidate in your constituency, as a leftist voter would you vote for them ?

Jobbik is part of United Opposition, but used to be a Neonazi party (!) - as a leftist voter I would really have to hold my nose to vote for such a lead candidate. I’m not sure how many such candidates there are though.

Irrelevant imo. Orban and his goons have already arranged who will win where. I have zero faith in the Hungarian election system since Orban took power.

We shall see, but I aint optimistic at all. Orban will remain in power and sure he might not have a super majority, but he will have a huge majority and can do whatever he wants. He has had a decade of super majority and has changed the constitution to fit him... so no need for a super majority really.

 

[Tender Branson]

Or are intimidated by the Orban regime to not vote. You pointed out that turnout is down.

Hungarian elections are not Russian elections.

No voter is intimidated in Hungary, unlike in Russia. Elections are generally free in conduct for voters, according to OSCE observers, but they are not fair. Because Orban + Fidesz have bought up most media or bullied the opposition media into non-existence. But they have not given up and created new media channels. Voters in general get balanced information, also via chattery on the street. So, people can vote freely, and I guess election rigging is not such a factor as in Russia, maybe on a local level with Fidesz filling out postal ballots for demented old voters in care homes. Other than that, Fidesz & Orban actually have a strong backing in the population of at least 40%. Orban would never receive less than that, even in a full democratic system.

Also, turnout is just down 2% until noon, so no big drop. And is probably catching up until evening.

 

[PeteEU]

Hungarian elections are not Russian elections.

Okay if you say so... but they are. The Hungarian Orban government has designed the election system after the British and Russian models.

No voter is intimidated in Hungary, unlike in Russia.

Yea no voter intimidation at all....sure...so things like closing down independent media or even the OCSE saying that the 2018 election had massive issues is what? Fairy tales? As for voter intimidation. Just one of many that has happened over the last decade.

Elections are generally free in conduct for voters, according to OSCE observers, but they are not fair.

LOL you do understand that if voting is not fair, then it is not free right? The OSCE has reported many issues and even internally there has been reporting of vote rigging. Of course the police have done nothing about it.

Because Orban + Fidesz have bought up most media or bullied the opposition media into non-existence.

HAHA that is white washing what is going on. Orban has put in place legislation that makes it impossible for independent media to operate. For example, the media watch dog is fully appointed by the majority party in parliament. This law, means this body is judge, jury and executioner on any media that does not meet its requirements. And it has used it, to eliminate almost all independent media.

But they have not given up and created new media channels. Voters in general get balanced information, also via chattery on the street. So, people can vote freely, and I guess election rigging is not such a factor as in Russia, maybe on a local level with Fidesz filling out postal ballots for demented old voters in care homes. Other than that, Fidesz & Orban actually have a strong backing in the population of at least 40%. Orban would never receive less than that, even in a full democratic system.

Seriously? That is your excuse? Most Hungarians get their information from the big media, which is all controlled by Orban. Any free independent media is lurking out on the internet, which aint gonna do much.

Also, turnout is just down 2% until noon, so no big drop. And is probably catching up until evening.

Sure.. we shall see.