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Only 26% of Americans think Obama will be reelected

cpwill

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The midterms not only dealt a big shock to Democrats but also sent a message to President Barack Obama. According to the new POLITICO Power and the People poll, only 26 percent of the public believes he will be reelected as president in 2012. Inside the Beltway, however, expectations are quite different, with D.C. elites saying he will have a second term by a reverse 2 to 1 margin. (49 percent say re-elected; 23 percent say not).

This difference in expectations could mislead the president if he is listening to the Beltway chatter — right here in D.C., he may just find a lot of comfort in this assessment by insiders, and that may lead to actions that don’t fully adjust for the sea change that has occurred among the general public...

This big difference can partially be explained by the different ways that the two groups see the economy and the world today. Seventy percent of D.C. elites admit that they have been affected less than the average citizen when it comes to the economic downturn. The elites see the tea party as purely a fad (70 percent). In contrast, those who say that the president will not be reelected see the country as headed in the wrong direction by 82 percent, see the economy as headed in the wrong direction by 81 percent and overwhelmingly want repeal of the health care law at the top of the agenda. The quarter of the public who consider Obama's reelection probable see the economy turning around by nearly 3-to-1. They are the outliers of the electorate, suggesting that the president has a lot more work to do to get back on track for a second term...

It should be clear now that the public believes it sent a very clear message to the president that it wants new policies — particularly when it comes to government spending and health care. The public wants him to move back to the center and focus on the economy.

D.C. elites can, of course, sometimes be right over the public. But in this case the administration has the electoral carnage of the midterms as proof that the public is fully prepared to vote in more Republicans unless it sees more changes than it saw in the months since Brown was elected. There will be a tempting comfort to the president to stay the course; the poll results show that staying the course may be quite perilous.
 

Deuce

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That's a strange way to measure things...
 

Hoplite

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It utterly astonishes me that people continue to say this.
It happens to be true. All the partisan jawing from both parties aside, Obama has been fairly consistent of being a down the middle political figure and unfortunately MG is right. Centrality doesnt have a lot of the active and zealous members that the far left or far right have; no one bombs an abortion clinic or a McDonalds because they want to see a moderation of economic policies that more closely resembles a hybridization of a collectivist and capitalistic economy.

The average person doesnt want someone who might shake hands with "the enemy" or want to work with them. The average person wants THEIR political views to be dominant and a centrist wont give you that. A centrist will tell you that some of your ideas are good, but some of them are not and the side that you might seriously dislike actually has some good ideas.

Humans are generally pretty bad at gradiation like this; we dont typically see things in a scale. For most of us, it's black or white, left or right, wrong or right. We want to be in groups of people that agree with us and we want to see leaders that agree with us. Very few of us want to actually critically THINK about our positions. We usually have several well-trod paths of logic (faulty or functional) and we tread those paths every time we need a morale boost.
 

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What, so all it takes to be a "centrist" is that you're not blowing things up?

You know, for all the silly personal swipes at me, neither of you guys actually went into the merits on Obama (SheWolf didn't even bother to make an argument of any kind).

The guy has pushed the most left-liberal agenda in a generation. He may not have achieved it to the liking of of the leftiest of left-liberals, but hey, them's the bricks when you live in a republic. He certainly would have preferred everything to be more leftist than it ended up being.

Now, I'm sure someone's going to whine about the American left not really being "left," but that, too, is a weekend trip to Silly Town. (By those standards, neither is the American right really "right.") There's a center in American politics and Obama sits comfortably to the left of it.
 

Ockham

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What, so all it takes to be a "centrist" is that you're not blowing things up?

You know, for all the silly personal swipes at me, neither of you guys actually went into the merits on Obama (SheWolf didn't even bother to make an argument of any kind).

The guy has pushed the most left-liberal agenda in a generation. He may not have achieved it to the liking of of the leftiest of left-liberals, but hey, them's the bricks when you live in a republic. He certainly would have preferred everything to be more leftist than it ended up being.

Now, I'm sure someone's going to whine about the American left not really being "left," but that, too, is a weekend trip to Silly Town. (By those standards, neither is the American right really "right.") There's a center in American politics and Obama sits comfortably to the left of it.
You have to understand that liberals, especially one's who blindly follow or defend Obama continue to try and convince people that he is a Centrist. There's a few reasons for that... first it's because those defenders are so far left they see Stalin and Marx as conservatives. Viewing life from their perspective for one minute, it's obvious to them Obama is a centrist or possibly even conservative, because they're view are so utterly skewed and leftist. Second, one of the tools in the progressive tool box is the ability to and committment to redefine language. Up is down, left is right, liberal is conservative. This does a few things - it confuses those who have a simplistic view of what is and is not centrist or conservative or liberal. It also attempts to redefine and move the goal posts, such that future discussions about what is and is not centrist to those who are not very political, may be swayed either during a conversation or during voting. By constantly parroting the same talking points like, "Obama is most definately a centrist", there will be a minimal amount of people who will read/listen to that enough times and then parrot it or even start to believe it. It is incumbant upon those people who are NOT drastically skewed in their political or social views to call those who are claiming Obama is a centrist out, and to place some perspective on the matter. Obama is certainly NO centrist. He is a progressive liberal. To what degree he is a progressive liberal depends on how much leeway he has to dictate policy. In his first 2 years he very much let the liberal progressives do his bidding in Congress giving him deniablity. Those policies were rejected and now he has a choice to either move his progressive liberal policies more towards the center (which does NOT make him a centrist either - it simply forces him to concede to pressures from the republicans and conservative right) in order to make any progress in the next two years.

Obama's no Stalin, not Hitler and certainly he's no Gingrich, Reagan or fill in the blank with some other prominent Conservative historical figure. He is a progressive liberal and that other progressive liberals want to convince others he's a centrist means there is an agenda to sway public opinion and convince moderates and independents he's not so bad after all. In other words, don't trust what you see him do, and hear him say, trust what we tell you he is... yeah. Right.
 

Kandahar

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I think that neither the American people nor the DC elites have the slightest clue whether Obama will be reelected. It depends ENTIRELY on the events of the next two years, who he is running against, the state of the economy in 2012, etc. Anyone who tells you they can predict the outcome of the election this far ahead is an idiot.

However, from a purely structural standpoint, I would say that he is more likely than not to win reelection. It is rare for the voters to toss a political party out of the White House after only one term. In the past century, only Jimmy Carter managed to pull off that dubious feat. While the historical record makes a reelection more likely than not, these structural factors are simply not as important as the current events in 2012.

InTrade places Obama's chances of reelection at about 60%. Anyone who thinks that is overpriced should go buy some Republican stock on InTrade and make a bundle of money when you're right. And anyone who thinks it's underpriced should likewise buy some Obama stock. Personally I think 60% sounds about right. ;)
 
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Thorgasm

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We shouldn't change Presidents while we are at war. :lol:

I can't wait for the Tax Partiers to raise the debt ceiling. That should go well.





Purrrrrrs
 
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Gray_Fox_86

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People are stupid and too content. Obama will be President for a second term and that is that. If you are hoping that a public official will make you rich then just die. These lawmakers do not help you in any way. They just continue to increase their power and fortune while bringing yours down to do it. Such a shame how this nation has turned out to be. Not that we were ever that great. The rest of the world just sucks. People have lost hope and it is due to lawmakers like Obama. Now we just look at the Presidents as though they were royalty. We need to stop and pause on what made this country great. And it was because we were not being held down by Politicians who were corrupt now they are just overly corrupt and no one cares. Our status will be gone and we will become like the rest of the world.
 
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StandUpChuck

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People are stupid and too content. Obama will be President for a second term and that is that. If you are hoping that a public official will make you rich then just die. These lawmakers do not help you in any way. They just continue to increase their power and fortune while bringing yours down to do it. Such a shame how this nation has turned out to be. Not that we were ever that great. The rest of the world just sucks. People have lost hope and it is due to lawmakers like Obama. Now we just look at the Presidents as though they were royalty. We need to stop and pause on what made this country great. And it was because we were not being held down by Politicians who were corrupt now they are just overly corrupt and no one cares. Our status will be gone and we will become like the rest of the world.
How's the head injury coming along? :lol:
 

Paschendale

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After Republicans continue to prevent any kind of improvements from happening, I have no doubt that there will be a large swell of liberal voters in 2012 like there was in 2008. But let's be honest, every midterm election swings back against the previous vote. There was a very vocal conservative movement (the Tea Party) that made a difference in this election. I can't see their steam continuing in a situation where they are not the underdogs anymore. They need that "voice of the voiceless" mentality for their claims to be legitimate, especially since of their claims do not actually square with facts or statistics.

Consider the debate over health care reform. A lot of the Tea Party's complaints were a) a lack of knowledge about what the new law would do and b) contentions that it would cost more money. In actual fact, it is quite easy to find out what's in the new law, and it is actually going to save people money. Pretty much every single thing that Tea Partiers said about the new law was speculation, and is proven wrong if you actually look at the facts.

I have no doubt that the Tea Party will lose its momentum and cooler heads will prevail. Republican fatcats will get voted back out of power, and perhaps actual progress can continue. Hopefully Obama's successor will have enough testicular fortitude (or Ovarian, I suppose, but the metaphor doesn't quite hold up) to actually push a progressive agenda without fawning all over conservatives. In the face of real progress, even moderates would flock behind a liberal leader.
 

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What, so all it takes to be a "centrist" is that you're not blowing things up?
No, simply that Centrists dont tend to be the hardcore "blow things up to make a point" kind of crowd.

The guy has pushed the most left-liberal agenda in a generation. He may not have achieved it to the liking of of the leftiest of left-liberals, but hey, them's the bricks when you live in a republic. He certainly would have preferred everything to be more leftist than it ended up being.
Rant all you want, it doesnt make it true.

Now, I'm sure someone's going to whine about the American left not really being "left," but that, too, is a weekend trip to Silly Town. (By those standards, neither is the American right really "right.") There's a center in American politics and Obama sits comfortably to the left of it.
America itself is a very diverse place but MOST of the voting bloc are moderates. There are definitely those on the far right and left but the moderates are the largest group in the country and they decide elections. This is a cornerstone of American politics.
 

Deuce

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Far-left, eh?

Single-payer healthcare? Nope.
Public option? Nope.
Gitmo prisoners? No change.
Environment? No significant changes. Not even cap and trade.
Wars? Still in them.
DADT? Could have ended with a stroke of the pen.
Marriage? Obama says between a man and a woman.
Guns? No significant changes.

You people have a strange ****ing idea of what far-left is.
 

Harshaw

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No, simply that Centrists dont tend to be the hardcore "blow things up to make a point" kind of crowd.
Then it's an entirely irrelevant point. :shrug:

Rant all you want, it doesnt make it true.
Calling it a "rant" doesn't make it untrue.

Let's see -- he pushed through a "stimulus" which was actually a 40-year liberal wish list of pet programs, he got as far left as he could toward universal health care, he pushed through a sweeping "financial" reform, he tried for cap and trade.

Now, if he failed at it, or wasn't able to get it far enough, that's not evidence he's in the "center." That simply means he didn't get what he wanted.



America itself is a very diverse place but MOST of the voting bloc are moderates. There are definitely those on the far right and left but the moderates are the largest group in the country and they decide elections. This is a cornerstone of American politics.
Yippee. Doesn't answer the point.
 

Harshaw

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Far-left, eh?

Single-payer healthcare? Nope.
Public option? Nope.
Gitmo prisoners? No change.
Environment? No significant changes. Not even cap and trade.
Wars? Still in them.
DADT? Could have ended with a stroke of the pen.
Marriage? Obama says between a man and a woman.
Guns? No significant changes.

You people have a strange ****ing idea of what far-left is.
Well, for one thing, not all of those are necessarily "left." For another, I never said anything about "far-left." I said comfortably to the left of center. He doesn't have to adopt absolutely every liberal position in order to be that. For a third thing, simply because things haven't even been attempted yet doesn't mean he won't try. And for a fourth thing, as I said, not accomplishing something doesn't mean that's the way he wanted it.
 

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Perhaps the difference in the numbers says more about informed opinion versus uninformed opinion?

If you took a poll of the general public and asked them who is going to win the NBA title this year and then asked the same question of NBA players, I would put a whole lot more stock in the opinion of the players. The people inside the hated DC beltway are the players in this game.
 

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Then it's an entirely irrelevant point. :shrug:
No, it isnt. It was a partial explanation of why the focus is almost never on Centrists when it comes to politics.

Calling it a "rant" doesn't make it untrue.
Then prove it.
 

Harshaw

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No, it isnt. It was a partial explanation of why the focus is almost never on Centrists when it comes to politics.
Who cares? The only point in question is whether or not Obama is "categorically" a centrist. I don't give a crap who focuses on what.


Then prove it.
I already gave you examples, which you completely ignored. And it was, of course, deliberate, because you had to actually cut them out of the quotation. :shrug:
 

Hoplite

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I already gave you examples, which you completely ignored. And it was, of course, deliberate, because you had to actually cut them out of the quotation. :shrug:
Because all you did was rant. You didnt prove anything except that you have functioning fingers.
 

Thorgasm

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Well, for one thing, not all of those are necessarily "left." For another, I never said anything about "far-left." I said comfortably to the left of center. He doesn't have to adopt absolutely every liberal position in order to be that. For a third thing, simply because things haven't even been attempted yet doesn't mean he won't try. And for a fourth thing, as I said, not accomplishing something doesn't mean that's the way he wanted it.

The guy has pushed the most left-liberal agenda in a generation.
He may not have achieved it to the liking of of the leftiest of left-liberals, but hey, them's the bricks when you live in a republic. He certainly would have preferred everything to be more leftist than it ended up being.

Now, I'm sure someone's going to whine about the American left not really being "left," but that, too, is a weekend trip to Silly Town. (By those standards, neither is the American right really "right.") There's a center in American politics and Obama sits comfortably to the left of it.


Yes, you said "comfortably" but you also said that he had the "most left-liberal (redundant?) agenda in a generation". So it's easy to see how he read that into your words. BTW, Dennis Kucinic has had the biggest liberal agenda.

Purrrrrs
 

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Because all you did was rant. You didnt prove anything except that you have functioning fingers.
Apparently, you are unable to refute the examples, then. Noted.
 

Harshaw

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Yes, you said "comfortably" but you also said that he had the "most left-liberal (redundant?) agenda in a generation". So it's easy to see how he read that into your words. BTW, Dennis Kucinic has had the biggest liberal agenda.

Purrrrrs
These are fair points. I clarify then -- the most left-liberal agenda of someone who can actually set an agenda for the country. Which doesn't require that it be "far" left, only "left-liberal."
 
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