Senate:
Here is the map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/MYDrP1
Notes on this week's edition:
1) South Carolina releases its first poll for the Tim Scott (R - SC) race
2) Oklahoma releases its first polls for the special election and regular Senate race.
3) The Georgia Senate race flips back in Raphael Warnock's (D-GA) direction
4) Kelly (D-AZ) solidifies his lead in Arizona
5) Murray (D-WA) solidifies her lead in Washington State
6) Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA) is weakening in Iowa
7) Laxalt (R-NV) is on top in Nevada
8) South Dakota comes online with John Thune (R-SD) being a solid R.
9) Maryland finally has a poll that doesn't show Gov. Hogan (R-MD) running for Senate. It switches to solid D.
10) Fetterman (D-PA) is weakening in Pennsylvania
11) Barnes (D-WI) takes the lead in Wisconsin
This week's model: https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/5kvmYp
Notes on the model:
1) The model assumes a +1/-1 for every event and that all voters know about the issues. For example, Trump's Mar-a-Lago raid will have the same weight as Jill Biden's comments about Hispanics being as unique as tacos. It also assumes that all voters know about the Mar-a-Lago raid and the Hispanic taco comment.
2) The model needs a poll and is recreated each time a new poll is released. The model may read from a candidate's polling data or a more official poll, depending on the latest available election poll on the candidate that shows up in 538's polling aggregate.
3) The model works based on who is energized by a comment or legislative vote. A candidate's vocal position against abortion will energize a Republican's base in a red state or a Democrat's base in a blue state.
4) Using this model in the 2018 midterms, I successfully predicted about 93% of the races.
5) The model shows that if we held the election on September 29th, Democrats would have 50 seats to 44 Republican seats.
Model modifiers:
I added the following modifiers to the polls released through September 29th:
1) Budd (R-NC) -3
2) Johnson (R-WI) -2
3) Murkowski (R-AK) -1
4) Grassley (R-IA) +2
5) Rubio (R-FL) -1
7) Crapo (R-ID) +1
8) Moran (R-KS) -1
9) Scott (R-SC) +4
10) Thune (R-SD) +1
11) Warnock (D-GA) -1
12) Ryan (D-OH) +4
13) Blumenthal (D-CT) +1
14) Wyden (D-OR) -1
15) Open Pennsylvania Seat D +11
16) Kelly (D-AZ) +2
17) Schumer (D-NY) +1
18) Murray (D-WA) +2
19) Bennett (D-CO) +3
I determine the modifiers by looking at public statements, headlines, and Congressional votes and weigh these factors equally at either a +1 or a -1. Additionally, polls by a candidate or a group associated with the candidate's party showing the candidate losing receive a -1. Candidates whose opposition releases a poll that shows the other party winning get a +1.
The model only works if at least one poll is conducted in a state for the model to work. Since there have been no polls in Alabama, California, Hawaii, Idaho, Oregon, and North Dakota, these states were left grey and untouched.
Since I add these modifiers to the most recent poll, some states may remain unchanged. For example, Rubio (R-FL) has a +7. With a modifier, that becomes +6, and the colors don't weaken until under +5.
(Note that this is not a predictive model. I will release my final predictions the day before Election Day if all goes well)
Here is the map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/MYDrP1
Notes on this week's edition:
1) South Carolina releases its first poll for the Tim Scott (R - SC) race
2) Oklahoma releases its first polls for the special election and regular Senate race.
3) The Georgia Senate race flips back in Raphael Warnock's (D-GA) direction
4) Kelly (D-AZ) solidifies his lead in Arizona
5) Murray (D-WA) solidifies her lead in Washington State
6) Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA) is weakening in Iowa
7) Laxalt (R-NV) is on top in Nevada
8) South Dakota comes online with John Thune (R-SD) being a solid R.
9) Maryland finally has a poll that doesn't show Gov. Hogan (R-MD) running for Senate. It switches to solid D.
10) Fetterman (D-PA) is weakening in Pennsylvania
11) Barnes (D-WI) takes the lead in Wisconsin
This week's model: https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/5kvmYp
Notes on the model:
1) The model assumes a +1/-1 for every event and that all voters know about the issues. For example, Trump's Mar-a-Lago raid will have the same weight as Jill Biden's comments about Hispanics being as unique as tacos. It also assumes that all voters know about the Mar-a-Lago raid and the Hispanic taco comment.
2) The model needs a poll and is recreated each time a new poll is released. The model may read from a candidate's polling data or a more official poll, depending on the latest available election poll on the candidate that shows up in 538's polling aggregate.
3) The model works based on who is energized by a comment or legislative vote. A candidate's vocal position against abortion will energize a Republican's base in a red state or a Democrat's base in a blue state.
4) Using this model in the 2018 midterms, I successfully predicted about 93% of the races.
5) The model shows that if we held the election on September 29th, Democrats would have 50 seats to 44 Republican seats.
Model modifiers:
I added the following modifiers to the polls released through September 29th:
1) Budd (R-NC) -3
2) Johnson (R-WI) -2
3) Murkowski (R-AK) -1
4) Grassley (R-IA) +2
5) Rubio (R-FL) -1
7) Crapo (R-ID) +1
8) Moran (R-KS) -1
9) Scott (R-SC) +4
10) Thune (R-SD) +1
11) Warnock (D-GA) -1
12) Ryan (D-OH) +4
13) Blumenthal (D-CT) +1
14) Wyden (D-OR) -1
15) Open Pennsylvania Seat D +11
16) Kelly (D-AZ) +2
17) Schumer (D-NY) +1
18) Murray (D-WA) +2
19) Bennett (D-CO) +3
I determine the modifiers by looking at public statements, headlines, and Congressional votes and weigh these factors equally at either a +1 or a -1. Additionally, polls by a candidate or a group associated with the candidate's party showing the candidate losing receive a -1. Candidates whose opposition releases a poll that shows the other party winning get a +1.
The model only works if at least one poll is conducted in a state for the model to work. Since there have been no polls in Alabama, California, Hawaii, Idaho, Oregon, and North Dakota, these states were left grey and untouched.
Since I add these modifiers to the most recent poll, some states may remain unchanged. For example, Rubio (R-FL) has a +7. With a modifier, that becomes +6, and the colors don't weaken until under +5.
(Note that this is not a predictive model. I will release my final predictions the day before Election Day if all goes well)