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Ongoing Senate Polling and Model Updates

Senate:
Here is the map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/MYDrP1

Notes on this week's edition:

1) South Carolina releases its first poll for the Tim Scott (R - SC) race
2) Oklahoma releases its first polls for the special election and regular Senate race.
3) The Georgia Senate race flips back in Raphael Warnock's (D-GA) direction
4) Kelly (D-AZ) solidifies his lead in Arizona
5) Murray (D-WA) solidifies her lead in Washington State
6) Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA) is weakening in Iowa
7) Laxalt (R-NV) is on top in Nevada
8) South Dakota comes online with John Thune (R-SD) being a solid R.
9) Maryland finally has a poll that doesn't show Gov. Hogan (R-MD) running for Senate. It switches to solid D.
10) Fetterman (D-PA) is weakening in Pennsylvania
11) Barnes (D-WI) takes the lead in Wisconsin





This week's model: https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/5kvmYp
Notes on the model:
1) The model assumes a +1/-1 for every event and that all voters know about the issues. For example, Trump's Mar-a-Lago raid will have the same weight as Jill Biden's comments about Hispanics being as unique as tacos. It also assumes that all voters know about the Mar-a-Lago raid and the Hispanic taco comment.
2) The model needs a poll and is recreated each time a new poll is released. The model may read from a candidate's polling data or a more official poll, depending on the latest available election poll on the candidate that shows up in 538's polling aggregate.
3) The model works based on who is energized by a comment or legislative vote. A candidate's vocal position against abortion will energize a Republican's base in a red state or a Democrat's base in a blue state.
4) Using this model in the 2018 midterms, I successfully predicted about 93% of the races.
5) The model shows that if we held the election on September 29th, Democrats would have 50 seats to 44 Republican seats.

Model modifiers:
I added the following modifiers to the polls released through September 29th:

1) Budd (R-NC) -3
2) Johnson (R-WI) -2
3) Murkowski (R-AK) -1
4) Grassley (R-IA) +2
5) Rubio (R-FL) -1
7) Crapo (R-ID) +1
8) Moran (R-KS) -1
9) Scott (R-SC) +4
10) Thune (R-SD) +1
11) Warnock (D-GA) -1
12) Ryan (D-OH) +4
13) Blumenthal (D-CT) +1
14) Wyden (D-OR) -1
15) Open Pennsylvania Seat D +11
16) Kelly (D-AZ) +2
17) Schumer (D-NY) +1
18) Murray (D-WA) +2
19) Bennett (D-CO) +3


I determine the modifiers by looking at public statements, headlines, and Congressional votes and weigh these factors equally at either a +1 or a -1. Additionally, polls by a candidate or a group associated with the candidate's party showing the candidate losing receive a -1. Candidates whose opposition releases a poll that shows the other party winning get a +1.

The model only works if at least one poll is conducted in a state for the model to work. Since there have been no polls in Alabama, California, Hawaii, Idaho, Oregon, and North Dakota, these states were left grey and untouched.

Since I add these modifiers to the most recent poll, some states may remain unchanged. For example, Rubio (R-FL) has a +7. With a modifier, that becomes +6, and the colors don't weaken until under +5.

(Note that this is not a predictive model. I will release my final predictions the day before Election Day if all goes well)
 

PoliSciPulse

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Senate:
Here is the map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/aDApbp
Notes on October 6th's edition:
1) Oregon now has an opinion poll
2) The high-water mark for Democrats is 52 as of this map.
3) This will probably be the last time Democrats will be this high. Forecasters noticed a change in the polls coming up.



This week's model: https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/qgGk4A

Notes on the model:
1) My model says that Cheri Beasley (D-NC) would win if they held the primary during this week
2) My model says that Ron Johnson (R-WI) would lose if they held the primary during this week according to my model.
3) Democrats would therefore win 54 seats.
3) According to FiveThirtyEight, my model shows that the Democrats would wind up with 53 seats in the Senate.
4) According to FiveThirtyEight, my model shows that the Democrats would have a 63% chance of the Democrats winning the house.



The modifiers I added were:
Republicans:
1) North Carolina (Open) R-2
2) Johnson (R-WI) -2
3) Murkowski (R-AK) -1
4) Grassley (R-IA) +2
5) Crapo (R-ID) +1
6) Scott (R-SC) +4
7) Thune (R-SD) +1
8) Rubio (R-FL) -2
9) Lee (R-UT) +3

Democrats:
1) Ryan (D-OH) +6
2) Blumenthal (D-CT) +1
3) Wyden (D-OR) -1
4) Pennsylvania (Open) D+14
5) Kelly (D-AZ) +4
6) Schumer (D-NY) +1
7) Murray (D-WA) +2
8) Bennet (D-CO) +3
9) Warnock (D-GA) +18
10) Pritzker (D-IL) +1
11) Cortez-Masto (D-NV) +1
 

PoliSciPulse

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Senate:
Here is the map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/5pDjeL

Senate Elections 2022​


Notes on October 13th's edition:
1) California has its first poll released.
2) Oz takes the lead in Pennsylvania
3) Vance takes the lead in Ohio.
4) The high-water mark for the Democrats is 51 Senators.
5) 538 believes this combination gives Democrats a 99% chance of keeping the House, with a 94.1% chance of the Democrats taking 51 seats.
6) 538 also believes this combination gives Republicans a 75% chance to take the House, with a 5.2% chance of the Republicans taking 225 or 222 seats.


This week's model: https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/5BBR61

Notes on the model:
1) Ohio switches from Republican to Democrat.
2) Pennsylvania switches from Republican to Democrat.
3) Georgia switches from toss-up to Democrat.
4) 538 gives Democrats an 88.9% chance of winning 53 races using this model.
5) 538 gives Democrats a 67% chance of winning the House and a 4.9% chance of winning 223 seats using this model.



The modifiers I added were:
Republicans:
North Carolina (Open) R-1
Johnson (R-WI) -2
Grassley (R-IA) +2
Scott (R-SC) +4
Thune (R-SD) +1
Rubio (R-FL) -1
Lee (R-UT) +3

Democrats:
Ryan (D-OH) +6
Wyden (D-OR) -1
Pennsylvania (Open) D+12
Kelly (D-AZ) +4
Schumer (D-NY) +1
Murray (D-WA) +2
Bennett (D-CO) +3
Pritzker (D-IL) +1
Cortez-Mastro (D-NV) +1
Warnock (D-GA) +10
 

PoliSciPulse

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Senate:
Here is the map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/qy1ydD

Senate Elections 2022​


Notes on October 20th's edition:
1) Nevada switched sides five times
2) Pennsylvania switched to the Democrats
3) Wisconsin switched to the Democrats
4) Ohio became a toss-up election
5) Iowa solidified for the Republicans
6) North Carolina became a toss-up election
6) FiveThirtyEight's model showed a 47.4% chance that the Democrats would take 51 seats and less than a 1% chance that the Republicans would take the majority in the Senate.
7) FiveThirtyEight's model showed a 56% chance that Republicans would take the House and a 44% chance that the Democrats would take the House. Of the possible outcomes, the highest probability (5%) was that the Republicans would take 219 seats.

This week's model: https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/5rD2W8


Notes on the model:
1) I created this after the election was over. However, I continued to score the model by hand as I would have before the election.
2) This means that a Trump campaign stop counts just as much as a Biden campaign stop (+1), despite the results saying that a Trump campaign stop hurt or was neutral.
3) North Carolina Tilts Blue
4) Ohio is a solid Democratic Pickup
5) Nevada tilts Democrat
6) Arizona is a safe Democratic pickup
7) FiveThirtyEight's Model says there is less than a 1% chance for Republicans to take the Senate. There is a 51.4% chance that Democrats will win 53 seats.
8) FiveThirtyEight's Model says that Democrats have an 81% chance of winning the House. The highest probability (5.1%) is that Democrats will take 224 seats.

The modifiers I added were:
Republicans:
North Carolina (Open) R-1
Johnson (R-WI) -3
Grassley (R-IA) +2
Scott (R-SC) +4
Thune (R-SD) +1
Rubio (R-FL) -2
Lee (UT) +3


Democrats:
Ryan (D-OH) +6
Pennsylvania (Open) D+13
Kelly (D-AZ) +6
Schumer (D-NY) +1
Murray (D-WA) +2
Bennet (D-CO) +3
Cortez-Masto (D-NM) +3
Warnock (D-GA) +12
Hassan (D-NH) +2
 

PoliSciPulse

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Senate:
Here is the map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/qy1ydD


Senate Elections 2022​


Notes on October 27th's edition:
1) Wisconsin flips back to Johnson (R-WI)
2) Herschel Walker (R-GA) takes the first lead in polls. The polling firm was Trafalgar Group.
3) JD Vance (R-OH) takes the lead in Ohio.
4) The Democrats' high water mark was 49 seats.
5) According to FiveThirtyEight, this map gave Republicans a 98% chance of winning the Senate, with the most likely combination being 51 seats (70.9% chance).
6) Meanwhile, this map gave Republicans a 96% chance of winning the House, with the most likely combination being 230 or 231 seats (5.3% chance of both outcomes).


This week's model: https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/5LlRlP


Notes on the model:
1) North Carolina shows Cheri Beasley (D-NC) winning
2) Ohio shows Tim Ryan (D-OH) winning
3) Arizona shows Mark Kelly (D-AZ) winning
4) Nevada shows Cortez-Masto (D-NV) winning
5) According to FiveThirtyEight, this combination shows an 83.7% chance of Democrats winning 54 seats.
6) According to FiveThirtyEight, this combination shows an 88% chance that Democrats kept the House with a 4.9% chance of them winning either 224 or 228 seats.


The modifiers I added were:
Republicans:
  • North Carolina (Open) (R-2)
  • Johnson (R-WI) -5
  • Grassley (R-IA) +3
  • Scott (R-SC) +4
  • Thune (R-SD) +1
  • Rubio (R-FL) -2


Democrats:
  • Ohio (Open) (D+2)
  • Blumenthal (D-CT) +1
  • Wyden (D-OR) -1
  • Pennsylvania (Open) D+19
  • Kelly (D-AZ) +11
  • Schumer (D-NY) +1
  • Bennett (D-CO) +2
  • Cortez-Mastro (D-NV) +4
  • Hassan (D-NH) +4
  • Warnock (D-GA) +4*
* Significant Decrease from 1st Debate
 

PoliSciPulse

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Senate:
Here is the map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/5VgoRP


Senate Elections 2022​


Notes on November 3rd's edition:
  • Pennsylvania flips back to the Republicans.
  • Lee (R-UT) solidifies his lead.
  • Alabama comes online as a solid Republican victory.
  • Ted Budd (R-NC) looks like he will have a solid win.
  • Georgia flips to Walker.
  • October 29th, 2022, had the most states flipped to Republicans (WI, NC, NH)
  • On this map, the high-water mark for Republicans was 51 Senators.
  • The map for this week was when the conservative polling that many news media outlets talked about finally kicked in and showed on the polling results.
  • FiveThirtyEight says that this map gave Republicans a 97% chance to win the Senate and a 96.5% chance of winning 51 seats.
  • FiveThirtyEight also says that this map gave Republicans a 94% chance of winning the House and a 5.7% of winning 228 seats.


This week's model: https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/avor1b

Notes on the model:
  • Wisconsin is still a Democratic pickup.
  • Pennsylvania is still a Democratic pickup.
  • Georgia is still a Democratic pickup.
  • Note that even though this map says the correct number of Democrats, 51, Hawaii is not accounted for as there were no polls up to this point.
  • Thus, the Democrats' high-water mark is 52 Senators.
  • According to FiveThirtyEight, this map gives Democrats a greater than 99% chance of winning the Senate and a 91.2% chance of winning 52 seats.
  • Also, according to FiveThirtyEight, this map gives Democrats a 53% chance of winning, and Republicans and Democrats each have a 5.5% chance of winning 218 seats.


The modifiers I added were:
Republicans:
  • North Carolina (Open) R-2
  • Johnson (R-WI) -6
  • Crapo (R-ID) +1
  • Scott (R-SC) +4
  • Thune (D-SD) +1
  • Lee (R-UT) +1
  • Rubio (R-FL) +3


Democrats:
  • Ohio (open) D+2
  • Blumenthal (D-CT) +2
  • Wyden (D-OR) -1
  • Pennsylvania (Open) D+18
  • Kelly (D-AZ) +9
  • Schumer (D-NY) +3
  • Murray (D-WA) +3
  • Bennet (D-CO) +3
  • Cortez-Masto (D-NY) +8
  • Hassan (D-NH) +4
  • Warnock (D-GA) +5
*
 

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Senate:
Here is the map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/5pDjeL

Senate Elections 2022​


Notes on October 13th's edition:
1) California has its first poll released.
2) Oz takes the lead in Pennsylvania
3) Vance takes the lead in Ohio.
4) The high-water mark for the Democrats is 51 Senators.
5) 538 believes this combination gives Democrats a 99% chance of keeping the House, with a 94.1% chance of the Democrats taking 51 seats.
6) 538 also believes this combination gives Republicans a 75% chance to take the House, with a 5.2% chance of the Republicans taking 225 or 222 seats.


This week's model: https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/5BBR61

Notes on the model:
1) Ohio switches from Republican to Democrat.
2) Pennsylvania switches from Republican to Democrat.
3) Georgia switches from toss-up to Democrat.
4) 538 gives Democrats an 88.9% chance of winning 53 races using this model.
5) 538 gives Democrats a 67% chance of winning the House and a 4.9% chance of winning 223 seats using this model.

Sorry, just to clarify... were you referring to 270towin as your model (I assume you maintain that site?)?

You quoted 538 prediction which were pretty clear. What were your comparable predictions in terms of chance of winning Senate and chance of winning House?
 

PoliSciPulse

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270towin is not my website or my model. It is a map of my model. What I do is I take the modifiers and add to/subtract from the polling results. Then, the map on 270towin reflects my modifiers. I believe the first post explains what I am doing well enough, but if you have questions after I read that, please let me know :)

As far as my predictions, I will have a new thread on that. I haven't finished the models for the days yet. This is more a retrospective (i.e., not knowing what we know now, what -would- my models have said had I gotten them done on time?)
 

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Senate:
Here is the map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/5X7oZQ




Senate Elections 2022​


Notes on November 4th's edition (I would have gone daily at this point) :
  • Ron Johson (R-WI) increases his lead.
  • Nevada switches to a solid Republican gain.
  • The high-water mark for Republicans was 52 seats.
  • According to FiveThirtyEight, this map gives Republicans an over 99% chance to win the Senate, with a 96.2% chance of winning 52 seats.
  • According to FiveThirtyEight, this map gives Republicans a 98% chance of winning the House, with a 5.1% chance of winning 234 seats.


This week's model: https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/59gRld

Notes on the model:
  • Wisconsin changes to a Democratic victory.
  • The Democrat wins in Nevada.
  • Warnock (D-GA) wins in Georgia.
  • FiveThirtyEight says this map gives Democrats a 99% chance of winning the Senate and a 91.9% chance of winning 52 seats.
  • FiveThirtyEight also says this map gives Democrats a 53% chance of winning the House and a 5.5% chance of either the Republicans or Democrats winning 218 seats.


The modifiers I added were:
Republicans:
  • North Carolina (Open) R-2
  • Johnson (R-WI) -6
  • Grassley (R-IA) +5
  • Scott (R-SC) +4
  • Thune (R-SD) +1
  • Rubio (R-FL) +5


Democrats:
  • Ohio (Open) D+2
  • Wyden (D-OR) -1
  • Pennsylvania (Open) D+17
  • Kelly (D-AZ) +10
  • Schumer (D-NY) +3
  • Murray (D-WA) +3
  • Bennett (D-CO) +3
  • Cortez-Masto (D-NV) +8
  • Hassan (D-NH) +4
  • Warnock (D-GA) +5
 

PoliSciPulse

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Senate:
Here is the map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/a0b4GB





Senate Elections 2022​


Notes on November 5th's edition:
  • A shock poll had Washington's race be tied.
  • The high-water mark for Republicans is 53 seats.
  • FiveThirtyEight says this map gives Republicans a 99% chance to win the Senate, with a 63.5% chance of winning the Senate and a 63.5% chance of winning 52 seats.
  • FiveThirtyEight says this map gives Republicans a 97% chance of winning the House and a 5.2% chance of winning 231 seats.


Model for November 5th: https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/qZKokQ

Notes on the model:
  • Wisconsin becomes a toss-up. This result is the first time the Democratic candidate did not lead once I added the modifiers.
  • Pennsylvania shows a solid Democratic victory.
  • Murray (D-WA) wins the Washington State race.
  • Cortez Masto (D-NV) wins the Nevada race.
  • Warnock (D-GA) wins the Georgia race.
  • The high-water mark for the Democrats is 52.
  • FiveThirtyEight says this map gives Democrats a 99% chance of winning the Senate and a 64.1% chance of winning 51 seats.
  • FiveThirtyEight says this map gives Republicans a 61% chance of winning the House and a 51.6% chance of winning 219 seats.


The modifiers I added were:
Republicans:
  • Johnson (R-WI) -6
  • Grassley (R-IA) +5
  • Scott (R-SC) +4
  • Thune (R-SD) +1
  • Lee (R-UT) +1
  • Rubio (R-FL) +5


Democrats:
  • Ohio (Open) D+2
  • Wyden (D-OR) -1
  • Pennsylvania (Open) D+17
  • Kelly (D-AZ) +10
  • Schumer (D-NY) +3
  • Murray (D-WA) +3
  • Bennet (D-CO)+3
  • Cortez-Masto (D-NV) +8
  • Warnock (D-GA) +7
 

PoliSciPulse

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Senate:
Here is the map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/Mmxooj






Senate Elections 2022​


Notes on November 6th's edition:
  • Pennsylvania flips to the Democrats.
  • Walker (R-GA) leads in Georgia again.
  • The high-water mark for Republicans is 51 seats.
  • FiveThirtyEight says this map gives Republicans a 97% chance to win the Senate and a 90.7% chance of winning 51 seats.
  • FiveThirtyEight says this map gives Republicans a 94% chance of winning the House and a 5.1% chance of winning 231, 229, or 228 seats.


Model for November 6th: https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/aDAWWd

Notes on the model:
  • Wisconsin goes back to the Democrats.
  • Murray (D-WA) wins Washington.
  • Cortez Masto (D-NV) wins Nevada.
  • Warnock (D-GA) wins Georgia.
  • The high-water mark for Democrats is 52 seats.
  • FiveThirtyEight says this map gives Democrats a 99% chance of winning the Senate and a 91.8% chance of winning 52 seats.
  • FiveThirtyEight says this map gives Democrats a 53% chance of winning the House and a 5.5% chance of either the Republicans or the Democrats winning 218 seats.


The modifiers I added were:
Republicans:
  • North Carolina (Open) R-2
  • Johnson (R-WI) -7
  • Grassley (R-IA) +5
  • Scott (R-SC) +4
  • Thune (R-SD) +1
  • Rubio (R-FL) +5


Democrats:
  • Ohio (Open) D+2
  • Wyden (D-OR) -1
  • Pennsylvania (Open) D+17
  • Kelly (D-AZ) +10
  • Schumer (D-NY) +5
  • Murray (D-WA) +3
  • Bennet (D-CO) +4
  • Cortez-Masto (D-NV) +8
  • Warnock (D-GA) +7
 
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