Here is the House Polling Map through September 29th.
Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/2M3O21M
Notes:
1) All districts in Utah now have polls.
2) All districts in New Hampshire now have polls.
3) The Democrats have 46 seats, and the Republicans have 44.
Here is where I believe the races stand. This projection (Not prediction -- that comes later) comes from public statements candidates have made, issues they have taken, and more. The modifications assume that every voter knows everything about a candidate and counteracts that by only allowing a +1/-1 per statement, issue, etc.
The projection comes from the most recent poll taken through September 29th. At least one opinion poll must be taken in a district for the model to work in that district.
Model Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/kqxK9na
Modifications:
Republicans:
Democrats:
While most modifications strengthen or weaken candidates compared to the public opinion polls, there are the following significant differences between the polls and the model:
Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/2M3O21M
Notes:
1) All districts in Utah now have polls.
2) All districts in New Hampshire now have polls.
3) The Democrats have 46 seats, and the Republicans have 44.
Here is where I believe the races stand. This projection (Not prediction -- that comes later) comes from public statements candidates have made, issues they have taken, and more. The modifications assume that every voter knows everything about a candidate and counteracts that by only allowing a +1/-1 per statement, issue, etc.
The projection comes from the most recent poll taken through September 29th. At least one opinion poll must be taken in a district for the model to work in that district.
Model Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/kqxK9na
Modifications:
Republicans:
- Lauren Boebert (R-CO) -4
- Don Bacon (R-NE) +4
- Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) +3
- Matt Gaetz (R-FL) -3
- Maria Salazar (R-FL) -1
- Andrew Garbarino (R-NY) +1
- Neal Dunn (R-FL) +1
- First District in Montana (Open) +14
- Third District in Washington (Open) +1
- Kelly Armstrong (R-ND) +1
Democrats:
- Jahana Hayes (D-CT) +1
- Donald Norcross (D-NJ) +2
- Seventh District in Colorado (Open) +1
- Eighth District in Colorado (Open) -1
- Fourth District in Oregon (Open) +1
- 13th District in California (Open) +1
- 15th District in Florida (Open) -1
- Julia Brownley (D-CA) +1
While most modifications strengthen or weaken candidates compared to the public opinion polls, there are the following significant differences between the polls and the model:
- The Democrats have 47 seats, and the Republicans have 43.
- Matt Gaetz's (R-FL) district switches to tilting Democrat.
- The Republican seats are much stronger than the seats of Democrats when I add the modifications.