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Ongoing House Polling and Model Updates

Here is the House Polling Map through September 29th.
Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/2M3O21M

Notes:
1) All districts in Utah now have polls.
2) All districts in New Hampshire now have polls.
3) The Democrats have 46 seats, and the Republicans have 44.

Here is where I believe the races stand. This projection (Not prediction -- that comes later) comes from public statements candidates have made, issues they have taken, and more. The modifications assume that every voter knows everything about a candidate and counteracts that by only allowing a +1/-1 per statement, issue, etc.

The projection comes from the most recent poll taken through September 29th. At least one opinion poll must be taken in a district for the model to work in that district.

Model Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/kqxK9na

Modifications:
Republicans:
  • Lauren Boebert (R-CO) -4
  • Don Bacon (R-NE) +4
  • Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) +3
  • Matt Gaetz (R-FL) -3
  • Maria Salazar (R-FL) -1
  • Andrew Garbarino (R-NY) +1
  • Neal Dunn (R-FL) +1
  • First District in Montana (Open) +14
  • Third District in Washington (Open) +1
  • Kelly Armstrong (R-ND) +1

Democrats:
  • Jahana Hayes (D-CT) +1
  • Donald Norcross (D-NJ) +2
  • Seventh District in Colorado (Open) +1
  • Eighth District in Colorado (Open) -1
  • Fourth District in Oregon (Open) +1
  • 13th District in California (Open) +1
  • 15th District in Florida (Open) -1
  • Julia Brownley (D-CA) +1

While most modifications strengthen or weaken candidates compared to the public opinion polls, there are the following significant differences between the polls and the model:

  • The Democrats have 47 seats, and the Republicans have 43.
  • Matt Gaetz's (R-FL) district switches to tilting Democrat.
  • The Republican seats are much stronger than the seats of Democrats when I add the modifications.
 
Here is the House Polling Map through October 6th.
Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/zazdEbM

Notes:
  • On October 6th, a poll showed Lauren Boebert (R-CO) losing her election

Model Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/V5Xl8e5
Model Notes:
  • This projection comes from the most recent polls taken through October 6th. At least one opinion poll must be taken in a district for the model to work in that district.
  • The Democrats have 50 seats, and the Republicans have 40, for a net Republican loss of 3 seats since the last update.
  • Matt Gaetz's (R-FL) district switches to tilting Democrat.
  • The Republican seats are much stronger than the seats of Democrats when I add the modifications.
Modifications:
Republicans:
Boebert (R-CO) -3
Bacon (R-NE) +4
Fitzpatrick (R-PA) +3
Gaetz (R-FL) -3
Salazar (R-FL) -1
Dunn (R-FL) +1
Montana (Open) R+14
WA-3 (Open) R+1
Armstrong (R-ND) +1

Democrats:
Hayes (D-CT) +1
CO-7 (open) D+1
OR-4 (Open) D+1
CA-13 (Open) D+1
CO-8 (Open) D+1
NY-19 (Open) D-1
WI-3 (Open) D-1
Brownley (D-CA) +1
RI-2 (Open) D-1
Schneider (D-IL) +1
 
Polling from the 6th?
Recently voters seem to be breaking towards the republican?
 
I'm a little bit behind as you can tell. :)
Based on what I have read and seen, yes, they are breaking Republican. My map will start to resemble that as we go on.
 
Remember the polls are skewed. Bannon's tactic of filling the space with shit works with polls too!

 
Well, that's the downside, right? My model only works based on polling. If the polling's wrong, so are my models! :)
 
Here is the House Polling Map through October 13th.
Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/7qAPg2a

Notes:
  • If we use only the polling data from this period, FiveThirtyEight gives Republicans a 92% chance of winning the House.
  • The same data gives Democrats a 60% chance of winning the Senate.
  • I added new, previously unpolled districts.

Model Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/75W9nZq
Model Notes:
  • This projection comes from the most recent polls taken through October 13th. At least one opinion poll must be taken in a district for the model to work in that district.
  • The Democrats have 50 seats, and the Republicans have 44, for a net Republican gain of 4seats since the last update.
  • Matt Gaetz's (R-FL) district switches to tilting Democrat.
  • The Republican seats are much stronger than the seats of Democrats when I add the modifications.
Modifications:
Republicans:
Boebert (R-CO) -3
Bacon (R-NE) +4
Fitzpatrick (R-PA) +3
Gaetz (R-FL) -3
Salazar (R-FL) -1
Garbarino (R-NY) +1
Dunn (R-FL) +1
MT-1 (Open) R+14
3-WA (Open) R+1
Armstrong (R-ND) +1

Democrats:
Hayes (D-CT) +1
Norcross (D-NJ) +2
7-CO (Open) D+1
4-OR (Open) D+1
13-CA (Open) D+1
8-CO (Open) D-1
19-NY (Open) D-1
15-FL (Open) D-1
Brownley (D-CA) +1
RI-2 (Open) D-1
Schneider (D-IL) +1
Wexton (D-VA) +1
Morelle (D-NY) +1
 
Here is the House Polling Map through October 20th.
Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/8M4ZRZa

Notes:
  • I finished adding unopposed races.
  • I noted the Lockout Primaries in California and Louisiana. There were no lockouts in Washington.
  • There is polling for both districts in Montana at long last.
  • I declared races with major parties where the opponent is either an independent, a third party, or a write-in to be won by the dominant party.
  • If we use only the polling data from this period, FiveThirtyEight gives Democrats a 53% chance of winning the House.
  • The same data gives Democrats an 86% chance of winning the Senate.
  • I added new, previously unpolled districts.
  • I will continue with these updates beyond Election Day (provided 538 and 270towin cooperate), so we can see the readouts of my model and final polls.

Model Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/bMm9dPM
Model Notes:
  • This projection comes from the most recent polls taken through October 20th. At least one opinion poll must be taken in a district for the model to work in that district.
  • The Democrats have 66 seats, and the Republicans have 56. This number has changed due to the updates.
  • Matt Gaetz's (R-FL) district switches to tilting Democrat.
  • The Republican seats are much stronger than the seats of Democrats when I add the modifications.
Modifications:
Republicans:
Boebert (R-CO) -3
Bacon (R-NE) +4
Fitzpatrick (R-PA) +3
Gaetz (R-FL) -3
Chabot (R-OH) -1
Salazar (R-FL) -1
Dunn (R-FL) +1
Montana (Open) +4
3-WA (Open) +1

Democrats:
Hayes (D-CT) +1
Norcross (D-NJ) +2
7-CO (Open) D +1
4-OR (Open) D+1
13-CA (Open) D+1
8-CO (Open) D+1
19-NY (Open) D-1
3-WI (Open) D-1
15-FL (Open) D-1
Brownly (D-CA) +1
RI-2 (Open) D-1
Schneider (R-IL) +1
Wexton (D-VA) +1
Morelle (D-NY) +1
Bishop (D-GA) +1
 
Here is the House Polling Map through October 27th.
Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/2M3pdY5

Notes:
  • CT-5 becomes a toss-up.
  • NV-1 becomes a toss-up
  • KS-3 becomes a solid Democratic pickup
  • RI-2 becomes a toss-up
  • NH-2 tilts Republican.
  • FL-4 shows a solid Republican victory.
  • NY-22 tilts Democratic.
  • The first poll in FL-13 shows a tilt toward a Republican win.
  • The first poll in CT-2 shows a solid Democratic victory.
  • The first poll in CT-4 shows a solid Democratic victory.
  • NM-1 comes online and is an easy Democratic pickup.
  • NM-3 comes online and is a solid Democratic pickup.
  • All three districts of NM now have polls.
  • If we use only the polling data from this period, FiveThirtyEight gives Democrats a 65% chance of winning the Senate and a 24.2% chance of winning 50 seats.
  • The same data gives Republicans a 77% of winning the House and a 6.4% chance of winning 222 seats.

Model Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/v5Pn41q

Model Notes:
  • This projection comes from the most recent polls taken through October 27th. At least one opinion poll must be taken in a district for the model to work in that district.
  • The Democrats have 50 seats, and the Republicans have 44, for a net Republican gain of 4seats since the last update.
  • Matt Gaetz's (R-FL) district switches to tilting Democrat.
  • CT-5 becomes a toss-up
  • RI-2 Tilts Republican.
  • The Republican seats are the most vulnerable they've been on this map.
  • According to FiveThirtyEight, Democrats had a 72% of winning the Senate, with a 20.6% chance of winning 51 seats.
  • According to FiveThirtyEight, Republicans had a 63% of winning the House, with a 4.8% chance of winning 221 Seats.
Modifications:
Republicans:
Boebert (R-CO) -3
Bacon (R-NE) +4
Fitzpatrick (R-PA) +3
Gaetz (R-FL) -3
Chabot (R-OH) -1
Salazar (R-FL) -1
Garbarino (R-NY) +1
Dunn (R-FL) +1
MT-1 (Open) R+14
WA-3 (Open) R+1
NC-13 (Open) R-1


Democrats:
FL-13 (Open) D-1
Hayes (D-CT) +1
Norcross (D-NJ) +2
CO-7 (open) D+1
OR-4 (open) D+1
CA-13 (Open) D+1
CO-8 (Open) D-1
NY-19 (Open) D-1
WI-3 (Open) D-1
FL-15 (Open) D-1
Brownley (D-CA) +1
RI-2 (Open) D-1
Wexton (D-VA) +1
Morelle (D-NY) +1
Bishop (D-GA) +1
 
Here is the House Polling Map through November 3rd.
Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/257RxZM

Notes:
  • The entire state of Nevada is now online.
  • The two districts of New Hampshire swap hands.
  • Wyoming comes online
  • With this map, FiveThirtyEight gave Democrats a 54% chance of winning the Senate and a 23.7% chance that they would win 50 seats.
  • With this map, FiveThirtyEight gave Republicans a 92% chance of winning and a 6.6% chance of winning 227 seats.

Model Map:

Model Notes:
  • This projection comes from the most recent polls taken through November 3rd. At least one opinion poll must be taken in a district for the model to work in that district.
  • Gaetz (R-FL) shows as losing.
  • Miller-Meeks' (R-IA) district shows an even split.
  • Luria (R-VA) shows as winning.
  • Hayes (D-CT) shows as winning.
  • OR-4 (open) becomes a Democratic pickup.
  • Slotkin (MI-7) switches to a Democratic pickup.
  • FiveThirtyEight says this model gives Democrats a 76% chance of winning the Senate, with a 23.3% chance of winning 51 seats.
  • FiveThirtyEight says this model gives Republicans a 62% chance of winning the House, with a 6.5% chance of winning either 218 or 219 seats.
Modifications:
Republicans:
Boebert (R-CO) -3
Fitzpatrick (R-PA) +3
Gaetz (R-FL) -4
Perry (R-PA) -2
Harris (R-MD) +1
Malliotakis (R-NY) +1
Miller-Meeks (R-IA) -1
Rosendale (R-MT) -2
Chabot (R-OH) -1
Salazar (R-FL) -1
Garbarino (R-NY) +1
Dunn (R-FL) +1
Montana (Open) R+1
3-WA (Open) +1
Calvert (R-CA) +1
Laturner (R-KS) +1
13-NC (Open) R-1
Bacon (R-NE) +8

Democrats:
Luria (D-VA) +1
Price (D-NC) -1
Gonzalez (D-TX) -2
DeFazio (D-OR) -1
13-FL (Open) -1
Brown (D-OH) +1
Kaptur (D-OH) +1
Hayes (D-CT) +1
Norcross (D-NJ) +2
5-OR (Open) -1
Alaska (Open) +1
7-CO (Open) +1
4-OR (Open) +1
13-CA (Open) +1
8-CO (Open) -1
19-NY (Open) D-2
15-FL (Open) -1
Maloney (D-NY) +5
Brownley (D-CA) +1
Schneider (D-IL) +1
Wexton (D-VA) +1
Morelle (D-NY) +1
Trone (D-MD) +1
Levin (D-CA) +1
Slotkin (D-MI) +12
Ruppersberger (D-MD) +2
Horsford (D-NV) +1
 
Here is the House Polling Map through November 4th.
Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/257RxZM

(At this point, I would have been updating every day)

Notes:
  • No polls for this day. The model and map remained unchanged.
  • With this map, FiveThirtyEight gives Democrats a 71% to win the Senate, with a 24.0% chance of winning 50 seats.
  • With this map, FiveThirtyEight gives Republicans a 69% chance of winning the House with a 6.2% of winning 221 seats.

Model Map:
Model Notes:
  • This projection comes from the most recent polls taken through November 4th. At least one opinion poll must be taken in a district for the model to work in that district.
  • Gaetz's (R-FL) district tilts Democrat.
  • IA-1 becomes a toss-up.
  • Elaine Luria (D-VA) takes the lead in Virginia.
  • Jahana Hayes (D-CT) takes the lead in Connecticut. There is an error on the general map, which I will correct next edition.
  • Hoyle takes the lead in OR-4.
  • FL-15 has an error that I will correct in the next edition.
  • Modifiers shore up Republican positions while Democrats take the lead in crucial races.
  • FiveThirtyEight says that my model showed a 76% chance for the Democrats to win the Senate with a 23.3% chance that they would win 51 seats.
  • FiveThirtyEight says that my model showed a 62% chance for Republicans to win the House with a 6.5% chance that they would win either 218 or 219 seats.
Modifications:
Republicans:
  • Boebert (R-CO) -3
  • Fitzpatrick (R-PA) +3
  • Gaetz (R-FL) -4
  • Perry (R-PA) -2
  • Harris (R-MD) +1
  • Malliotakis (R-NY) +1
  • Miller-Meeks (R-IA) -1
  • Rosendale (R-MT) -2
  • Chabot (R-OH) -1
  • Salazar (R-FL) -1
  • Garbarino (R-NY) +1
  • Gonzales (R-TX) +1
  • Dunn (R-FL) +1
  • Montana (Open) R+14
  • 3-WA (Open) R+1
  • Calvert (R-CA) +1
  • LaTurner (R-KS) +1
  • 13-NC (Open) R-1
  • Bacon (R-NE) +8

Democrats:
  • Luria (D-VA) +1
  • 13-FL (Open) -1
  • Kaptur (D-OH) +1
  • Hayes (D-CT) +1
  • Norcross (D-NJ) +2
  • 5-OR (Open) D-1
  • Alaska (Open) D+1
  • 7-CO (Open) D+1
  • 4-OR (Open) D+1
  • 13-CA (Open) D+1
  • 8-CO (Open) D-1
  • 14-NY (Open) D-2
  • 15-FL (Open) D-1
  • Brownley (D-CA) +1
  • Schnieder (D-IL) +1
  • Wexton (D-VA) +1
  • Morelle (D-NY) +1
  • Levin (D-CA) +1
 
Here is the House Polling Map through November 5th.
Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/AqEkyo5


(At this point, I would have been updating every day)

Notes:
  • No polls for this day. The model and map remained unchanged.
  • I corrected the errors I noted in the last map.
  • With this map, FiveThirtyEight gives Democrats a 70% chance to win the Senate, with a 23.5% chance of winning 50 seats.
  • With this map, FiveThirtyEight gives Republicans a 72% chance of winning the House, with a 6.3% chance of winning 219 seats.

Model Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/V5XnQLq

Model Notes:
  • This projection comes from the most recent polls taken through November 5th. At least one opinion poll must be taken in a district for the model to work in that district.
  • Gaetz's (R-FL) district tilts Democrat.
  • IA-1 becomes a toss-up.
  • Elaine Luria (D-VA) takes the lead in Virginia.
  • Hoyle takes the lead in OR-4.
  • Modifiers shore up Republican positions while Democrats take the lead in crucial races.
  • FiveThirtyEight says that my model showed a 76% chance for the Democrats to win the Senate with a 23.3% chance that they would win 51 seats.
  • FiveThirtyEight says that my model showed a 62% chance for Republicans to win the House with a 6.5% chance that they would win either 218 or 219 seats.
Modifications:
Republicans:
  • Boebert (R-CO) -3
  • Fitzpatrick (R-PA) +3
  • Gaetz (R-FL) -4
  • Perry (R-PA) -2
  • Harris (R-MD) +1
  • Malliotakis (R-NY) +1
  • Miller-Meeks (R-IA) -1
  • Rosendale (R-MT) -2
  • Chabot (R-OH) -1
  • Salazar (R-FL) -1
  • Garbarino (R-NY) +1
  • Gonzales (R-TX) +1
  • Dunn (R-FL) +1
  • Montana (Open) R+14
  • 3-WA (Open) R+1
  • Calvert (R-CA) +1
  • LaTurner (R-KS) +1
  • 13-NC (Open) R-1
  • Bacon (R-NE) +8

Democrats:
  • Luria (D-VA) +1
  • 13-FL (Open) -1
  • Kaptur (D-OH) +1
  • Hayes (D-CT) +1
  • Norcross (D-NJ) +2
  • 5-OR (Open) D-1
  • Alaska (Open) D+1
  • 7-CO (Open) D+1
  • 4-OR (Open) D+1
  • 13-CA (Open) D+1
  • 8-CO (Open) D-1
  • 19-NY (Open) D-2
  • 15-FL (Open) D-1
  • Brownley (D-CA) +1
  • Schnieder (D-IL) +1
  • Wexton (D-VA) +1
  • Morelle (D-NY) +1
  • Levin (D-CA) +1
 
Here is the House Polling Map through November 6th.
Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/wqjLv65

Notes:
  • November 6th was the last date that polls were released. I will post one last update, and then I will create my posthumous predictions and analysis thread.
  • The final map will consider all candidates I have a modification for and will be the best, most correct map.
  • NH-1 goes back to the Democrats.
  • Jared Golden's district (ME-2) weakens for the Democrats.
  • According to FiveThirtyEight, this map gives the Democrats a 70% chance of winning the Senate and a 23.5% chance of winning 50 seats.
  • According to FiveThirtyEight, this map gives the Republicans a 72% chance of winning the House and a 6.3% chance of winning 219 seats.

Model Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/eqK7y6q

Model Notes:
  • This projection comes from the most recent polls taken through November 6th. At least one opinion poll must be taken in a district for the model to work in that district.
  • Gaetz's (R-FL) seat flips to the Democrats.
  • Miller-Meeks's (R-IA) seat becomes a toss-up.
  • CT-5 goes to the Democrats.
  • Luria's (D-VA) goes to the Democrats.
  • FiveThirtyEight says that this model shows Democrats with a 76% chance of winning the Senate and a 23.3% chance of Democrats having 51 seats.
  • FiveThirtyEight says that this model shows Republicans with a 62% chance of winning the House and a 6.5% chance of winning either 219 or 218 seats.
Modifications:
Republicans:
  • Boebert (R-CO) -3
  • Fitzpatrick (R-PA) +3
  • Gaetz (R-FL) -4
  • Perry (R-PA) -2
  • Malliotakis (R-NY) +1
  • Miller-Meeks (R-IA) -1
  • Rosendale (R-MT) -2
  • Chabot (R-OH) -1
  • Salazar (R-FL) -1
  • Garbarino (R-NY) +1
  • Gonzales (R-TX) +1
  • Dunn (R-FL) +1
  • Montana (Open) R+14
  • WA-3 (Open) R +1
  • Calvert (R-CA) +1
  • Laturner (R-KS) +1
  • NC-13 (Open) R-1
  • Bacon (R-NE) +8

Democrats:
  • Luria (D-VA) +1
  • 13-FL (Open) D-1
  • Kaptur (D-OH) +1
  • Hayes (D-CT) +1
  • Norcross (D-NJ) +2
  • 5-OR (Open)D-1
  • Alaska (Open) D+1
  • 7-CO (Open) D+1
  • 13-CA (Open) D+1
  • 8-CO (Open) D-1
  • 14-NY (Open) D-2
  • 15-FL (Open) D-1
  • Maloney (D-NY) +5
  • Brownley (D-CA) +1
  • Schneider (D-IL) +1
  • Morelle (D-NY) +1
  • Vallejo (D-TX) +2
 
Here is the House Polling Map through November 7th.
Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/wqZpxJ5

Notes:
  • There were two errors, which I corrected. It gives WA-4 to the Republicans and makes TX-15 a toss-up.
  • With this final map, FiveThirty projected that the Democrats had a 77% chance of winning the Senate and a 22.6% chance of winning 51 seats.
  • FiveThirtyEight projected that Republicans had a 56% chance of winning the House and a 5.8% chance of winning 218 seats.

Model Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/k5JL2Qq

Final Model Notes:
  • This projection comes from the most recent polls taken through November 7th.
  • Matt Gaetz's (R-FL) seat switches to a Democratic victory.
  • Mariannette Miller-Meek's (R-IA) seat becomes a toss-up.
  • Republicans take WA-4.
  • The open seat in NC-13 becomes a toss-up.
  • VA-2 tilts Democratic.
  • Hayes (D-CT) takes the lead in her district.
  • OR-4 tilts Democratic.
  • Slotkin's district switches to Democratic.
  • With this final model, FiveThirtyEight projected that Democrats had an 85% chance of winning the Senate and a 22.3% chance of winning 51 seats.
  • FiveThirtyEight projected that Democrats had a 61% chance of winning the House and a 5.5% chance of winning 219 seats.
Modifications:
Republicans:
  • Boebert (R-CO) -3
  • Fitzpatrick (R-PA) +3
  • Gaetz (R-FL) -4
  • Perry (R-PA) -2
  • Harris (R-MD) +1
  • Maillotakis (R-NY) +1
  • Miller-Meeks (R-IA) -1
  • Rosendale (R-MT) -2
  • Chabot (R-OH) -1
  • Salazar (R-FL) -1
  • Garbarino (R-NY) +1
  • Gonzales (R-TX) +1
  • Dunn (R-FL) +1
  • Montana (Open) R+4
  • WA-4 (Open) R+1
  • Calvert (R-CA) +1
  • LaTurner (R-KS) +1
  • 13-NC (Open) R-1
  • Bacon (R-NE) +8
  • Bognet (R-PA) +1

Democrats:
  • Luria (D-VA) +1
  • Gonzalez (D-TX) -2
  • 13-FL (Open) D-1
  • Kaptur (D-OH) +1
  • Hayes (D-CT) +1
  • Norcross (D-NJ) +2
  • 5-OR (Open) D-1
  • Alaska (Open) D+1
  • 7-CO (Open) D+1
  • 4-OR (Open) D+1
  • 13-CA (Open) D+1
  • 8-CO (Open) D-1
  • 15-FL (Open) -1
  • Maloney (D-NY) +5
  • Brownley (D-CA) +1
  • Schnieder (D-IL) +1
  • Wexton (R-VA) +1
  • Morelle (D-NY) +1
  • Levin (D-CA) +1
  • Trone (D-MD) +1
  • Ruppersbrger (D-MD) +2
  • Slotkin (D-MI) +16
  • Horsford (D-NV) +1
  • TX-15 (open) D+2
  • Cartwright (D-PA) -1



Outstanding Modifiers:
These are modifiers that do not have a poll for me to modify. When I create what would have been my prediction map, I will use the Cook Partisan Voter Index (CPVI) as found on Ballotpedia to make my final predictions.

Republicans:
  • Biggs (R-AZ) -5
  • Massie (R-KY) -8
  • Higgins (R-LA) -3
  • Roy (R-TX) -4
  • Greene (R-GA) -13
  • Arrington (R-TX) -3
  • Foxx (R-NC) -2
  • Palazzo (R-MS) -2
  • Rutherford (R-FL) -2
  • Smucker (R-PA) -2
  • Cole (R-OK) +1
  • Turner (R-OH) +2
  • Bice (R-OK) -1
  • Bishop (R-NC) -3
  • Miller (R-VA) -1
  • Grothman (R-WI) -1
  • Jordan (R-OH) -2
  • Loudermilk (R-GA) -1
  • Crenshaw (R-TX) +1
  • Hudson (R-NC) +1
  • Meuser (R-PA) +1
  • Posey (R-FL) +1
  • Bost (R-IL) -1
  • Babin (R-TX) -1
  • Buck (R-CO) -1
  • Burchett (R-TN) -1
  • Cloud (R-TX) -1
  • Clyde (R-GA) -1
  • Comer (R-KY) -1
  • Davidson (R-OH) -1
  • DesJarlais (R-TN) -1
  • Donalds (R-FL) -1
  • Duncan (R-SC) -1
  • Estes (R-KS) -2
  • Fulcher (R-ID) -1
  • Good (R-VA) -1
  • Graves (R-LA) -1
  • Harshbarger (R-TN) -1
  • Hern (R-OK) -1
  • Huizenga (R-MI) -1
  • Mann (R-KS) -1
  • Mast (R-FL) -1
  • Miller (R-IL) -2
  • Moore (R-AL) -1
  • Nehls (R-TX) -1
  • Sessions (R-TX) -1
  • Steube (R-FL) -1
  • Tiffany (R-WI) -1
  • Van Drew (R-NJ) -1
  • Van Duyne (R-TX) -1
  • Westerman (R-AR) -1
  • Fallon (R-TX) -3
  • Joyce (R-OH) -1
  • Pence (R-IN) +1
  • Wenstrup (R-OH) +1
  • Johnson (R-OH) +1
  • OH-7 (Open) +1
  • Balderson (R-OH) +1
  • Flood (R-NE) -1
  • Mooney (R-WV) -1
  • McCaul (R-TX) +10
  • Emmer (R-MN) +2
  • Stefanik (R-NY) +6
  • Banks (R-IN) -2
  • Scalise (R-LA) +4
  • Mace (R-NC) +13
  • Guest (R-MS) -1
  • McCarthy (R-CA) +2
  • Kelly (R-PA) -1
Democrats:
  • Jacobs (D-CA) +1
  • DeLauro (D-CT) +1
  • Strickland (D-WA) -4
  • Pascrell (D-NJ) +1
  • 3-KY (Open)
  • 4-NC (Open)
  • Jefferies (D-NY) +1
  • Omar (D-MN) -1
  • Cuellar (D-TX) +9
  • Clyburn (D-SC) +4
  • Pelosi (D-CA) +2
  • 14-NY (Open) D-2
 
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