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Ongoing House Polling and Model Updates

Here is the House Polling Map through September 29th.
Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/2M3O21M

Notes:
1) All districts in Utah now have polls.
2) All districts in New Hampshire now have polls.
3) The Democrats have 46 seats, and the Republicans have 44.

Here is where I believe the races stand. This projection (Not prediction -- that comes later) comes from public statements candidates have made, issues they have taken, and more. The modifications assume that every voter knows everything about a candidate and counteracts that by only allowing a +1/-1 per statement, issue, etc.

The projection comes from the most recent poll taken through September 29th. At least one opinion poll must be taken in a district for the model to work in that district.

Model Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/kqxK9na

Modifications:
Republicans:
  • Lauren Boebert (R-CO) -4
  • Don Bacon (R-NE) +4
  • Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) +3
  • Matt Gaetz (R-FL) -3
  • Maria Salazar (R-FL) -1
  • Andrew Garbarino (R-NY) +1
  • Neal Dunn (R-FL) +1
  • First District in Montana (Open) +14
  • Third District in Washington (Open) +1
  • Kelly Armstrong (R-ND) +1

Democrats:
  • Jahana Hayes (D-CT) +1
  • Donald Norcross (D-NJ) +2
  • Seventh District in Colorado (Open) +1
  • Eighth District in Colorado (Open) -1
  • Fourth District in Oregon (Open) +1
  • 13th District in California (Open) +1
  • 15th District in Florida (Open) -1
  • Julia Brownley (D-CA) +1

While most modifications strengthen or weaken candidates compared to the public opinion polls, there are the following significant differences between the polls and the model:

  • The Democrats have 47 seats, and the Republicans have 43.
  • Matt Gaetz's (R-FL) district switches to tilting Democrat.
  • The Republican seats are much stronger than the seats of Democrats when I add the modifications.
 

PoliSciPulse

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Here is the House Polling Map through October 6th.
Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/zazdEbM

Notes:
  • On October 6th, a poll showed Lauren Boebert (R-CO) losing her election

Model Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/V5Xl8e5
Model Notes:
  • This projection comes from the most recent polls taken through October 6th. At least one opinion poll must be taken in a district for the model to work in that district.
  • The Democrats have 50 seats, and the Republicans have 40, for a net Republican loss of 3 seats since the last update.
  • Matt Gaetz's (R-FL) district switches to tilting Democrat.
  • The Republican seats are much stronger than the seats of Democrats when I add the modifications.
Modifications:
Republicans:
Boebert (R-CO) -3
Bacon (R-NE) +4
Fitzpatrick (R-PA) +3
Gaetz (R-FL) -3
Salazar (R-FL) -1
Dunn (R-FL) +1
Montana (Open) R+14
WA-3 (Open) R+1
Armstrong (R-ND) +1

Democrats:
Hayes (D-CT) +1
CO-7 (open) D+1
OR-4 (Open) D+1
CA-13 (Open) D+1
CO-8 (Open) D+1
NY-19 (Open) D-1
WI-3 (Open) D-1
Brownley (D-CA) +1
RI-2 (Open) D-1
Schneider (D-IL) +1
 

Common Sense 1

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Polling from the 6th?
Recently voters seem to be breaking towards the republican?
 

PoliSciPulse

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I'm a little bit behind as you can tell. :)
Based on what I have read and seen, yes, they are breaking Republican. My map will start to resemble that as we go on.
 

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Remember the polls are skewed. Bannon's tactic of filling the space with shit works with polls too!

 

PoliSciPulse

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Well, that's the downside, right? My model only works based on polling. If the polling's wrong, so are my models! :)
 

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Here is the House Polling Map through October 13th.
Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/7qAPg2a

Notes:
  • If we use only the polling data from this period, FiveThirtyEight gives Republicans a 92% chance of winning the House.
  • The same data gives Democrats a 60% chance of winning the Senate.
  • I added new, previously unpolled districts.

Model Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/75W9nZq
Model Notes:
  • This projection comes from the most recent polls taken through October 13th. At least one opinion poll must be taken in a district for the model to work in that district.
  • The Democrats have 50 seats, and the Republicans have 44, for a net Republican gain of 4seats since the last update.
  • Matt Gaetz's (R-FL) district switches to tilting Democrat.
  • The Republican seats are much stronger than the seats of Democrats when I add the modifications.
Modifications:
Republicans:
Boebert (R-CO) -3
Bacon (R-NE) +4
Fitzpatrick (R-PA) +3
Gaetz (R-FL) -3
Salazar (R-FL) -1
Garbarino (R-NY) +1
Dunn (R-FL) +1
MT-1 (Open) R+14
3-WA (Open) R+1
Armstrong (R-ND) +1

Democrats:
Hayes (D-CT) +1
Norcross (D-NJ) +2
7-CO (Open) D+1
4-OR (Open) D+1
13-CA (Open) D+1
8-CO (Open) D-1
19-NY (Open) D-1
15-FL (Open) D-1
Brownley (D-CA) +1
RI-2 (Open) D-1
Schneider (D-IL) +1
Wexton (D-VA) +1
Morelle (D-NY) +1
 

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Here is the House Polling Map through October 20th.
Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/8M4ZRZa

Notes:
  • I finished adding unopposed races.
  • I noted the Lockout Primaries in California and Louisiana. There were no lockouts in Washington.
  • There is polling for both districts in Montana at long last.
  • I declared races with major parties where the opponent is either an independent, a third party, or a write-in to be won by the dominant party.
  • If we use only the polling data from this period, FiveThirtyEight gives Democrats a 53% chance of winning the House.
  • The same data gives Democrats an 86% chance of winning the Senate.
  • I added new, previously unpolled districts.
  • I will continue with these updates beyond Election Day (provided 538 and 270towin cooperate), so we can see the readouts of my model and final polls.

Model Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/bMm9dPM
Model Notes:
  • This projection comes from the most recent polls taken through October 20th. At least one opinion poll must be taken in a district for the model to work in that district.
  • The Democrats have 66 seats, and the Republicans have 56. This number has changed due to the updates.
  • Matt Gaetz's (R-FL) district switches to tilting Democrat.
  • The Republican seats are much stronger than the seats of Democrats when I add the modifications.
Modifications:
Republicans:
Boebert (R-CO) -3
Bacon (R-NE) +4
Fitzpatrick (R-PA) +3
Gaetz (R-FL) -3
Chabot (R-OH) -1
Salazar (R-FL) -1
Dunn (R-FL) +1
Montana (Open) +4
3-WA (Open) +1

Democrats:
Hayes (D-CT) +1
Norcross (D-NJ) +2
7-CO (Open) D +1
4-OR (Open) D+1
13-CA (Open) D+1
8-CO (Open) D+1
19-NY (Open) D-1
3-WI (Open) D-1
15-FL (Open) D-1
Brownly (D-CA) +1
RI-2 (Open) D-1
Schneider (R-IL) +1
Wexton (D-VA) +1
Morelle (D-NY) +1
Bishop (D-GA) +1
 

PoliSciPulse

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Here is the House Polling Map through October 27th.
Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/2M3pdY5

Notes:
  • CT-5 becomes a toss-up.
  • NV-1 becomes a toss-up
  • KS-3 becomes a solid Democratic pickup
  • RI-2 becomes a toss-up
  • NH-2 tilts Republican.
  • FL-4 shows a solid Republican victory.
  • NY-22 tilts Democratic.
  • The first poll in FL-13 shows a tilt toward a Republican win.
  • The first poll in CT-2 shows a solid Democratic victory.
  • The first poll in CT-4 shows a solid Democratic victory.
  • NM-1 comes online and is an easy Democratic pickup.
  • NM-3 comes online and is a solid Democratic pickup.
  • All three districts of NM now have polls.
  • If we use only the polling data from this period, FiveThirtyEight gives Democrats a 65% chance of winning the Senate and a 24.2% chance of winning 50 seats.
  • The same data gives Republicans a 77% of winning the House and a 6.4% chance of winning 222 seats.

Model Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/v5Pn41q

Model Notes:
  • This projection comes from the most recent polls taken through October 27th. At least one opinion poll must be taken in a district for the model to work in that district.
  • The Democrats have 50 seats, and the Republicans have 44, for a net Republican gain of 4seats since the last update.
  • Matt Gaetz's (R-FL) district switches to tilting Democrat.
  • CT-5 becomes a toss-up
  • RI-2 Tilts Republican.
  • The Republican seats are the most vulnerable they've been on this map.
  • According to FiveThirtyEight, Democrats had a 72% of winning the Senate, with a 20.6% chance of winning 51 seats.
  • According to FiveThirtyEight, Republicans had a 63% of winning the House, with a 4.8% chance of winning 221 Seats.
Modifications:
Republicans:
Boebert (R-CO) -3
Bacon (R-NE) +4
Fitzpatrick (R-PA) +3
Gaetz (R-FL) -3
Chabot (R-OH) -1
Salazar (R-FL) -1
Garbarino (R-NY) +1
Dunn (R-FL) +1
MT-1 (Open) R+14
WA-3 (Open) R+1
NC-13 (Open) R-1


Democrats:
FL-13 (Open) D-1
Hayes (D-CT) +1
Norcross (D-NJ) +2
CO-7 (open) D+1
OR-4 (open) D+1
CA-13 (Open) D+1
CO-8 (Open) D-1
NY-19 (Open) D-1
WI-3 (Open) D-1
FL-15 (Open) D-1
Brownley (D-CA) +1
RI-2 (Open) D-1
Wexton (D-VA) +1
Morelle (D-NY) +1
Bishop (D-GA) +1
 
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