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Ongoing Governor Polls and Models

I have returned after a hiatus then went on far too long:
Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/V4Y3

Notes:
  • Gov. Kemp (R-GA) weakens in Georgia.
  • The Map shows, in my estimation, a maximum of 24 seats for Democrats as of September 29th.
  • A shocking poll released on September 18th by third-party Gubernatorial candidate Natalie Bruno in Oklahoma showed the Democratic candidate leading.
  • Two surprising polls in Oregon -- on September 20th and September 24th -- showed the Republican gubernatorial candidate leading.
  • Another shocking poll released on September 21st showed incumbent Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) trailing Charlie Crist (D-FL) by 6 points.

Model Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/XOL4

The model assumes that every voter knows everything but can only have a +1/-1 for each statement, campaign event, etc.

For the model to work, there must be at least one poll for the Gubernatorial race. Grey states are either even or have no election polls for the Gubernatorial race.

I added these modifiers to the existing election map on September 29th, 2022:

Republican:
  • DeSantis (R-FL) -1
  • Stitt (R-OK) -2
  • Ivey (R-AL) -2
  • Arkansas (Open) R-2
  • Noem (R-SD) -2
  • Gordon (R-WV) -1
  • Lee (R-TN) -1
  • McMaster (R-SC) -1
  • Sununu (R-NH) +1
  • Dunleavy (R-AK) +1
  • Nebraska (Open) R+1
  • Little (R-ID) +1
  • DeWine (R-OH) +3
  • Oregon (Open) R+1
  • Kemp (R-GA) +6

Democrat:
  • Whitmer (D-MI) +2
  • Hochul (D-NY) +4
  • Arizona (Open) D+4
  • Pritzker (D-IL) +3
  • Evers (D-WI) -1
  • Lamont (D-CT) -1
  • Pennsylvania (Open) D+6
  • Sisolak (D-NV) +1
  • Polis (D+CO) +2
  • Kelly (D-KS) -1
  • Waltz (D-MN) +1
  • Lujan-Grisham (D-NM) +1

Model Notes:
  • No significant seat changes; the modifiers strengthen or weaken races but do not change the outcome.
  • Arizona's race becomes a solid Democratic pickup
  • Lombardo's lead in Nevada becomes a "tilt."
  • Walz's lead in Minnesota strengthens to a "Likely" Democratic pickup.
  • Lujan-Grisham's race becomes one that "leans" Democratic.
 
Click to expand...
It's always interesting to compare near election polls to the final turnout.
 
Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/ROJB

Notes:
  • A shock poll showed the Stitt (R-OK) losing his race
  • The high-water mark for the Republicans is 27 seats.
  • Lake (R-AZ) took the lead in Arizona.

Model Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/o43E

Model Notes:
  • Arizona goes Democratic
  • Wisconsin becomes a toss-up
  • Nevada becomes a toss-up
  • Kansas becomes a toss-up
  • The Republicans could win a total of 28 elections using this map.

I added these modifiers to the existing election map on October 6th, 2022:

Republicans:
DeSantis (R-FL) -1
Stitt (R-OK) -3
McMaster (R-SC) -1
Sununu (R-NH) +1
Nebraska (Open) R+1
Dunleavy (R-AK) +1
DeWine (R-OH) +4
Oregon (Open) R+1
Kemp (R-GA) +6

Democrats:
Whitmer (D-MI +2
Hochul (D-NY) +5
Arizona (Open) D+6
Pritzker (D-IL) +3
Pennsylvania (Open) D+6
Sisolak (D-NV) +1
Polis (D-CO) +1
Kelly (D-KS) -1
Walz (D-MN) +1
Lujan-Grisham (D-NM) +1
 
Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/04JO


Notes:
  • South Dakota Comes online
  • The Oklahoma gubernatorial race looks closer to a Democratic pickup
  • The High-Water Mark for Democrats is 25 seats.

Model Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/l7nG


Model Notes:
  • Nevada becomes a toss-up

I added these modifiers to the existing election map on October 13th, 2022:

Republicans:
Stitt (R-OK) -3
Noem (R-SD) -2
McMaster (R-SC) -1
DeWine (R-OH) +4
Oregon (Open) R+1
Kemp (R-GA) +5

Democrats:
Whitmer (D-MI) +2
Hochul (D-NY) +5
Arizona (Open) D+6
Pritzker (D-IL) +3
Evers (D-WI) -1
Lamont (D-CT) +1
Pennsylvania (Open) D+6
Sisolak (D-NV) +1
Polis (D-CO) +2
Kelly (D-KS) -1
Walz (D-MN) +1
Lujan-Grisham (D-NM) +1
 
Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/xmJ7

Notes:
  • Tennessee finally comes online.
  • Kari Lake (D-AZ) leads for the first time.
  • Lombardo (R-NV) takes the lead in Nevada.
  • Lujan-Grisham (D-NM) takes back the lead in New Mexico.
  • Kotek (D-OR) retakes the lead in Oregon)

Model Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/PO6k


Model Notes:
  • Arizona changes to solid blue

I added these modifiers to the existing election map on October 27th, 2022:

Republicans:
Stitt (R-OK) -3
Noem (R-SD) -2
Lee (R-TN) -1
McMaster (R-SC) -1
Sununu (R-NH) +2
Dunleavy (R-AK) +1
Nebraska (Open) R+1
DeWine (R-OH) +5
Oregon (Open) R+1
Kemp (R-GA) +5
Abbott (R-TX) +1

Democrats:
Whitmer (D-MI) +3
Hochul (D-NY) +1
Arizona (Open) +7
Pritzker (D-IL) +3
Lamont (D-CT) +1
Pennsylvania (Open) (D+6)
Sisolak (D-NV) +1
Polis (D-CO) +2
Kelly (D-KS) -1
Walz (D-MN) +1
Lujan-Grisham (D-NM) +1
 
Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/Qplk

I accidentally skipped an update. So, this will be for October 20th's polls.

Notes:
  • Hobbs (D-AZ) takes the lead back in her state.
  • The Democratic candidate leads in Oklahoma.
  • Pritzker (D-IL) weakens.
  • Wisconsin flips to a lean-Democratic pickup.
  • Arizona switches to lean Republican.
  • A shock poll had Minnesota switching to a Republican pickup.
  • A shock poll had New York switching to a Republican pickup.
  • This map shows that the Republicans have a high-water mark of 27 seats.

Model Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/zjrw

Model Notes:
  • Oregon becomes a Republican pickup.
  • Oklahoma becomes a toss-up.
  • Arizona becomes a solid Republican pickup.
  • New York becomes a solid Democratic pickup.
  • Minnesota becomes a toss-up
  • In this model, Republicans have a high-water mark of 28 seats.

I added these modifiers to the existing election map on October 20th, 2022:

Republicans:
Ivey (R-AL) -2
Arkansas (Open) R-2
Noem (R-SD) -1
Lee (R-TN) -1
McMaster (R-SC) -1
Sununu (R-NH) +9
Dunleavy (R-AK) +1
Nebraska (Open) R+1
Little (R-ID) +1
DeWine (R-OH) +5
Oregon (Open) R+3
Kemp (R-GA) +2
Abbott (R-TX) +1
DeSantis (R-FL) -5
Stitt (R-OK) +1
Arizona (Open) R+6


Democrats:
Whitmer (D-MI) +2
Hochul (D-NY) +10
Pritzker (D-IL) +4
Lamont (D-CT) +1
Pennsylvania (Open) D+7
Polis (D-CO) +2
Kelly (D-KS) -1
Walz (D-MN) +1
Lujan-Grisham (D-NM) +1
 
Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/gppO

We are back to regular polling. These maps will be for November 3rd's polls.

Notes:
  • New Mexico weakens for the Democrats.
  • Oklahoma flips to the Republicans, then back to the Democrats.
  • A shock opinion poll on October 28th had Charlie Crist (D-FL) up by +7.
  • Alabama comes online and is a solid Republican victory.
  • Wisconsin changed hands multiple times during this week.
  • Wyoming comes online and is a solid Republican victory.
  • Again, we had one of the more conservative-leaning weeks for the polls.
  • The high-water mark for the Republicans was 28 governorships.

Model Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/gppO

Model Notes:
  • Both sides solidify their positions.

I added these modifiers to the existing election map on November 3rd, 2022:

Republicans:
  • Ivey (R-AL) -2
  • Arkansas (Open) R-2
  • Noem (R-SD) -1
  • Lee (R-TN) -1
  • McMaster (R-SC) -1
  • Sununu (R-NH)+9
  • Dunleavy (R-AK) +1
  • Nebraska (Open) R+1
  • Little (R-ID) +1
  • DeWine (R-OH) +5
  • Kemp (R-GA) +3
  • Abbott (R-TX) +1
  • Stitt (R-OK) -1
  • DeSantis (R-FL) -5
  • Arizona (Open) R+6

Democrats:
  • Whitmer (D-MI) +9
  • Hochul (D-NY) +11
  • Pritzker (D-IL) +4
  • Lamont (D-CT) +1
  • Pennsylvania (Open) D+7
  • Kelly (D-KS) -1
  • Walz (D-MN) +1
  • Lujan-Grisham (D-NM) +1
 
Map:

We are back to regular polling. These maps will be for November 4th's polls. At this point, I would have gone daily.

Notes:
  • Nevada becomes a solid Republican pickup.
  • The High Water Mark for Republicans is 28 Governorships.

Model Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/877A


Model Notes:
  • Arizona becomes a Solid Republican pickup.
  • Oklahoma weakens for the Democrats.
  • Michigan becomes a Solid Democratic pickup.

I added these modifiers to the existing election map on November 4th, 2022:

Republicans:
  • Noem (R-SD) -1
  • Lee (R-TN) -1
  • McMaster (R-SC) -1
  • Sununu (R-NH) +9
  • Nebraska (Open) R+1
  • Little (R-ID) +1
  • DeWine (R-OH) +5
  • Kemp (R-GA) +3
  • Oregon (Open) R+3
  • Stitt (R-OK) +1
  • DeSantis (R-FL) -5
  • Arizona (Open) R+6
  • Ivey (R-AL) -2
  • Arkansas (open) R-2
  • Dunleavy (R-AK) +1

Democrats:
  • Whitmer (D-MI) +9
  • Hochul (D-NY) +11
  • Pritzker (D-IL)+9
  • Lamont (D-CT) +1
  • Pennsylvania (Open) D+7
  • Polis (D-CO) +3
  • Kelly (D-KS) -1
  • Walz (D-MN) +1
  • Lujan Grisham (D-MN) +1
 
Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/pGlY
We are back to regular polling. These maps will be for November 5th's polls. I appear to have skipped two days since I last posted. I will post twice in a row in this thread.

Notes:
  • Nothing major of note changes
  • I corrected Oklahoma, which had a slightly higher margin of victory for the Democrats at this point.

Model Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/oGAQ

Model Notes:
  • Oregon becomes a safe Republican state.
  • Kansas weakens for the Democrats.
  • New Mexico strengthens for the Democrats.
  • The high-water mark for the Republicans is 28 governorships.

I added these modifiers to the existing election map on November 5th, 2022:

Republicans:
  • Ivey (R-AL) -2
  • Arkansas (Open) -2
  • Noem (R-SD) -1
  • Lee (R-TN) -1
  • McMaster (R-SC) -1
  • Sununu (R-NH) +9
  • Nebraska (Open) R+1
  • DeWine (R-OH) +5
  • Kemp (R-GA) +3*
  • Abbott (R-TX) +1
  • Oregon (Open) R+3
  • Stitt (R-OK) +1
  • DeSantis (R-FL) -5
  • Arizona (Open) R+6

* Swing from Debate
Democrats:
  • Whitmer (D-MI) +10
  • Hochul (D-NY) +11
  • Pritzker (D-IL) +4
  • Lamont (D-CT) +1
  • Pennsylvania (Open) D+7
  • Kelly (D-KS) -1
  • Polis (D-CO) +4
  • Walz (D-MN) +1
  • Lujan Grisham (D-NM) +1
 
Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/rGPo

We are back to regular polling. These maps will be for November 6th's polls.

Notes:
  • Oregon flips back to the Democrats.
  • Lake's (R-AZ) lead weakens.
  • Lombardo's (R-NV) lead weakens.
  • Wisconsin becomes a toss-up state.
  • Oklahoma finally switches back to a Republican win.
  • The high water mark for Republicans is 28 governorships.

Model Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/1WKl

Model Notes:
  • Lake (R-AZ) is a solid lock for governor in Arizona.
  • The other states strengthen and weaken depending on modifiers, but all generally show the same results.
  • The Republicans have a high-water mark of 28 governorships.

I added these modifiers to the existing election map on November 6th, 2022:

Republicans:
  • Ivey (R-AL) -2
  • Arkansas (Open) R-2
  • Noem (R-SD) -1
  • Lee (R-TN) -1
  • McMaster (R-SC) -1
  • Sununu (R-NH) +9
  • Dunleavy (R-AK) +1
  • Nebraska (Open) R+1
  • DeWine (R-OH) +5
  • Kemp (R-GA) +3
  • Stitt (R-OK) +1
  • DeSantis (R-FL) -5
  • Arizona (Open) R+6

Democrats:
  • Whitmer (D-MI) +10
  • Hochul (D-NY) +11
  • Pritcher (D-IL) +4
  • Lamont (D-CT) +1
  • Pennsylvania (Open) D+7
  • Polis (D-CO) +4
  • Kelly (D-KS) -1
  • Walz (D-MN) +1
  • Lujan-Grisham (D-NM) +1
 
Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/RAXX

These maps will be for November 7th's polls. These are the last map and model before I finalize what would have been my predictions for 2022.

Notes:
  • Wisconsin flips to the Democrats.
  • Michigan becomes a toss-up.
  • The lead for DeSantis (R-FL) weakens.

Model Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/nG3x

Model Notes:
  • Florida flips to a Democratic pickup.
  • Michigan is a solid Democratic pickup.
  • The high-water mark for Republicans is 26 seats.

I added these modifiers to the existing election map on November 7th, 2022:

Republicans:
  • Ivey (R-AL)
  • Arkansas (Open) R-2
  • Noem (R-SD) -1
  • Lee (R-TN) -1
  • McMaster (R-SC) -1
  • Sununu (R-NH) +9
  • Dunleavy (R-AK) +1
  • Nebraska (Open) R+1
  • DeWine (R-OH) +5
  • Kemp (R-GA) +3
  • Abbott (R-TX) +1
  • Oregon (Open) R+3
  • Stitt (R-OK) +1
  • DeSantis (R-FL) -5
  • Arizona (R-AZ) +6

Democrats:
  • Whitmer (D-MI) +10
  • Hochul (D-NY) +11
  • Pritzker (D-IL) +4
  • Lamont (D-CT) +1
  • Pennsylvania (Open) +7
  • Polis (D-CO) +4
  • Kelly (D-KS) -1
  • Walz (D-MN) +1
  • Lujan-Grisham (D-NM) +1
I had these extra modifiers left over. They will not work for these models because they had no polls to go with them. In my posthumous predictions map, I will apply these modifiers to the Cook Partisan Voter Index, as provided by Ballotpedia.

Republicans:
  • Little (R-ID) +1
 
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