Oil Prices Tumble Below $100 and Keep Falling. Here’s Why.

[itstony]

I'm glad the "let's go Brandon" crowd plastered gas pumps with the Biden "I did that" stickers. When prices come down as expected they can say he did that as well. It's simple supply and demand and after all the noise about oil futures that's what it comes back to.

“Meanwhile on the demand side for oil, fears about an aggressive policy response from Beijing to China’s Covid outbreak has raised the prospect of a much weaker demand for oil from the world’s second-largest economy,” she adds.

Technical factors are also clearly at play. Traders had come into March holding aggressive long bets on oil that would pay off at futures prices above $100. There is evidence that many of them sold out of positions when oil spiked. Open interest in oil futures is now at the lowest level in six years, according to Bloomberg.

An oil market momentum indicator known as the Relative Strength Index, which measures price changes, has fallen to the mid-40s from highs above 80. Generally, a reading above 70 indicates that an asset is overbought.

Oil Prices Tumble Below $100 and Keep Falling. Here's Why.

The fall comes amid hopes over cease-fire talks between Russia and Ukraine and as China imposed lockdown restrictions on major manufacturing regions.

www.barrons.com

 

[Craig234]

You make a good point except that it isn't "simple supply and demand" - there's a speculation role that's huge IIUC. As your quote shows.

 

[HIP56948]

It also means the price of fuel will decrease in 2 months. (Prices seem to go up fast then takes forever to fall)

 

[bongsaway]

You make a good point except that it isn't "simple supply and demand" - there's a speculation role that's huge IIUC. As your quote shows.

I got raked over the coals for saying it's due to speculation in the markets. If there is a shortage of oil, I haven't seen it, have you? So much for the supply and demand theory alone, speculation plays a huge part in the price of oil.

 

[Chillfolks]

It also means the price of fuel will decrease in 2 months. (Prices seem to go up fast then takes forever to fall)

They will fall in time to rise again for the summer driving months

 

[Schism]

I got raked over the coals for saying it's due to speculation in the markets. If there is a shortage of oil, I haven't seen it, have you? So much for the supply and demand theory alone, speculation plays a huge part in the price of oil.

I see lots of speculation in these threads; some even masquerading as facts.

 

[Luckyone]

I'm glad the "let's go Brandon" crowd plastered gas pumps with the Biden "I did that" stickers. When prices come down as expected they can say he did that as well. It's simple supply and demand and after all the noise about oil futures that's what it comes back to.

“Meanwhile on the demand side for oil, fears about an aggressive policy response from Beijing to China’s Covid outbreak has raised the prospect of a much weaker demand for oil from the world’s second-largest economy,” she adds.

Technical factors are also clearly at play. Traders had come into March holding aggressive long bets on oil that would pay off at futures prices above $100. There is evidence that many of them sold out of positions when oil spiked. Open interest in oil futures is now at the lowest level in six years, according to Bloomberg.

An oil market momentum indicator known as the Relative Strength Index, which measures price changes, has fallen to the mid-40s from highs above 80. Generally, a reading above 70 indicates that an asset is overbought.

Oil Prices Tumble Below $100 and Keep Falling. Here's Why.

The fall comes amid hopes over cease-fire talks between Russia and Ukraine and as China imposed lockdown restrictions on major manufacturing regions.

www.barrons.com

What a load of BS

This market is a "computer and algorithm" market that moves from resistance (when found) and down to support (where it is).

In my newsletter this past Sunday, I stated that since selling was found at $130.30, that there was no established support below until 95.46 was reached. Computers, algorithms and professional chart traders see this and they trade for it (this market is all about making money).

Today, Oil closed at $95.35, meaning that the support level has been reached, which in turn means that tomorrow the computers, algorithms and chart traders will be buyers and a rally back up to test the $130 high will be seen.

The catalyst for this drop was the statement made last week that Putin and the Ukranians were talking about a compromise and that was "enough" to bring in a round of profit taking that caused this fall.

There has not been anything "tangible" that has changed. Inflation remains, the war remains, the sanctions on Oil from Russia remains. This is ALL about trading the prices.

 

[mrjurrs]

It also means the price of fuel will decrease in 2 months. (Prices seem to go up fast then takes forever to fall)

Up like a missile, down like a feather...

Couldn't have anything to do with energy companies being more concerned with profits than our economy...

 

[Mr Person]

What a load of BS

This market is a "computer and algorithm" market that moves from resistance (when found) and down to support (where it is).

In my newsletter this past Sunday, I stated that since selling was found at $130.30, that there was no established support below until 95.46 was reached. Computers, algorithms and professional chart traders see this and they trade for it (this market is all about making money).

Today, Oil closed at $95.35, meaning that the support level has been reached, which in turn means that tomorrow the computers, algorithms and chart traders will be buyers and a rally back up to test the $130 high will be seen.

The catalyst for this drop was the statement made last week that Putin and the Ukranians were talking about a compromise and that was "enough" to bring in a round of profit taking that caused this fall.

There has not been anything "tangible" that has changed. Inflation remains, the war remains, the sanctions on Oil from Russia remains. This is ALL about trading the prices.

OP's point was that the attacks on Biden re: gas prices are BS. So this is one of those situations where he can be (possibly) wrong about some facts (why, specifically, the price fluctuated) while being right overall anyway.

 

[itstony]

You make a good point except that it isn't "simple supply and demand" - there's a speculation role that's huge IIUC. As your quote shows.

Agreed, thought that was a given and many people are being burned on futures. I think it's also fair to say that that if we reach a point that supply is majorly above demand for a period of time then it all evens out and speculators get a little more realistic. Oil futures are no different than a housing bubble only on a much shorter term. The speculators have been pointing to instability in the politics of the major oil producing countries fearing we hit "peak oil" from those suppliers for the long term.

 

[Luce]

I got raked over the coals for saying it's due to speculation in the markets.

Why? That's exactly what's happened.

 

[Luckyone]

OP's point was that the attacks on Biden re: gas prices are BS. So this is one of those situations where he can be (possibly) wrong about some facts (why, specifically, the price fluctuated) while being right overall anyway.

This had nothing to do with Biden other than the fact that he stood up for the principles that Putin should not have invaded Ukraine and by standing up for the principle, Russia's Oil (12% of the world production) would not be bought and therefore causing a shortage of Oil in the world.

That has not changed and therefore this drop in Oil is more trading-for-short-term-profits by the computers, algorithms, and traders than anything that has to do with the fundamental picture.

 

[Deuce]

They will fall in time to rise again for the summer driving months

And by then you'll be blaming Biden for the existence of summer.

 

[Chillfolks]

And by then you'll be blaming Biden for the existence of summer.

Like Democrats did with Trump the circle of politics rolls on

 

[Michael Cole]

You make a good point except that it isn't "simple supply and demand" - there's a speculation role that's huge IIUC. As your quote shows.

Speculating on supply and demand.

 

[Michael Cole]

I got raked over the coals for saying it's due to speculation in the markets. If there is a shortage of oil, I haven't seen it, have you? So much for the supply and demand theory alone, speculation plays a huge part in the price of oil.

Speculation is how oil is priced. What they are speculating is future supply and demand. The two are mutually combined

 

[MaryP]

It also means the price of fuel will decrease in 2 months. (Prices seem to go up fast then takes forever to fall)

The cost of gas here dropped 20 cents a gallon a few days ago. It has gone down all over Maine to just over $4. It still sucks, but it was at 4.25.

 

[Gateman_Wen]

It also means the price of fuel will decrease in 2 months. (Prices seem to go up fast then takes forever to fall)

They will trickle down, a few pennies at a time, for weeks.

 

[HIP56948]

The cost of gas here dropped 20 cents a gallon a few days ago. It has gone down all over Maine to just over $4. It still sucks, but it was at 4.25.

ah..Very good. Bought gas this morning, in Sarasota. Regular was $4.47 Been that way for about a week.
v

 

[MaryP]

ah..Very good. Bought gas this morning, in Sarasota. Regular was $4.47 Been that way for about a week.
v

I'm so sorry!

 

[itstony]

The cost of gas here dropped 20 cents a gallon a few days ago. It has gone down all over Maine to just over $4. It still sucks, but it was at 4.25.

We lived in Cape Elizabeth for a few years, gas always seemed a little high in Maine but we loved it there.

 

[bongsaway]

Why? That's exactly what's happened.

I get it since there are no oil shortages it must be some other factor. It's fear that drove up the price of a barrel of oil.

 

[Razoo]

They will fall in time to rise again for the summer driving months

yep ......

 

[Threegoofs]

I see lots of speculation in these threads; some even masquerading as facts.

Biden just lowered the price of oil by 25% in a month!

Best President Evah!

I know you agree because you clearly think Presidents are responsible for oil prices. You must be a huge Biden fan now.

 

[CaughtInThe]

i'm still waiting for the Fox crowd to blame Biden for Daylight Savings Time.