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Nuclear attack in Ukraine should spark ‘devastating’ Nato response, says Polish foreign minister

Allan

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On the weekend we heard that Biden had delivered a strong message to Putin as to what the response would be should Russia attack Ukraine with nuclear weapons. Now thanks to the Polish Foreign Minister we know what that message was - full NATO response, short of a nuclear attack.

The US national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, warned on Sunday that any nuclear use by the Kremlin would have “catastrophic consequences for Russia”, which had been “spelled out” in private conversations with Russian officials.

Poland’s foreign minister, Zbigniew Rau, has said Nato’s response to any use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine should be non-nuclear but “devastating”.
Speaking on a visit to Washington, Rau said the alliance was in the process of delivering that message to Moscow.

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The wrinkle in this approach is that Putin has previously said that he would use nukes if he felt that Russian survival was threatened. A NATO attack might be what pushes him to launch. This is a very tricky brinkmanship exercise going on here.
 
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Tigerace117

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On the weekend we heard that Biden had delivered a strong message to Putin as to what the response would be should Russia attack Ukraine with nuclear weapons. Now thanks to the Polish Foreign Minister we know what that message was - full NATO response, short of a nuclear attack.





Link

The wrinkle in this approach is that Putin has previously said that he would use nukes if he felt that Russian survival was threatened. A NATO attack might be what pushes him to launch. This is a very tricky brinkmanship exercise going on here.

The obvious issue, of course, is that trying to bomb Russia is likely to lead to the Russians escalating in turn.
 

Gatsby

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I think everyone needs to take a deep breath and stop escalating. On the NATO side, there's no need for this kind of dick-measuring. We are already winning. Just continue doing what we have been doing: Arm Ukraine with the types of weapons we have been giving them, privately warn Russia about using nukes, and mostly just ignore their nuclear threats publicly aside from pro forma denunciations.

Don't concede an inch to Putin on the subject of Ukraine, but also don't ratchet up the nuclear rhetoric. A nuclear miscalculation would be devastating for the entire world.
 

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So much for Gorbachev’s ‘Wind of Change’.
 

Gatsby

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If Russia actually does use nukes in Ukraine then we are in uncharted territory. We would have to make sure there are catastrophic consequences for Russia, without destroying the world in a full-on nuclear war. Which is not an easy needle to thread. If it came to that, I think there should be two red lines: Don't respond with nuclear weapons, and don't strike inside of Russia. But I think America would need to utterly destroy the Russian naval fleets in Sevastopol and Tartus; destroy the Russian army in Ukraine, Crimea, Transnistria, and Georgia; invade or foment a color revolution in Belarus; and push Russia back to its own borders.
 

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I think everyone needs to take a deep breath and stop escalating. On the NATO side, there's no need for this kind of dick-measuring. Just continue doing what we have been doing: Arm Ukraine with the types of weapons we have been giving them, privately warn Russia about using nukes, and mostly just ignore their nuclear threats publicly aside from pro forma denunciations.

Don't concede an inch to Putin on the subject of Ukraine, but also don't ratchet up the nuclear rhetoric. A nuclear miscalculation would be devastating for the entire world.
I agree completely. This does not end well for anyone, and it's easy for people to do even dumber things once the rhetoric starts being made all over the place. What remains to be seen is what happens now that the "referendum" has gone the way most people knew it would, and Russia now having the pretext it needs to claim any attack on the eastern Ukrainian oblasts to be an attack on Russian soil.

Despite Putin's bluster, I suspect he will not be keen on using that kind of weapon even if the fighting continues, because it is an unconventional response to a conventional war they can win otherwise. Using nuclear weapons against a foe with less manpower and weapons looks like a major sign of weakness and will also further isolate Russia from the world community.
 

Allan

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If Russia actually does use nukes in Ukraine then we are in uncharted territory. We would have to make sure there are catastrophic consequences for Russia, without destroying the world in a full-on nuclear war. Which is not an easy needle to thread. If it came to that, I think there should be two red lines: Don't respond with nuclear weapons, and don't strike inside of Russia. But I think America would need to utterly destroy the Russian naval fleets in Sevastopol and Tartus; destroy the Russian army in Ukraine, Crimea, Transnistria, and Georgia; invade or foment a color revolution in Belarus; and push Russia back to its own borders.
I think you are on the right track here. Staying out of Russian territory negates any Russian claim their country is threatened. A NATO entry into Ukraine would decisively overwhelm Russian forces and prevent reentry. It would also devastate what's left of Russian military power. Such a move is contrary to the NATO charter though and I have to wonder if all signatories are on board. Presumably this has been discussed already and it's clear to everyone there's a mandate to make this commitment.
 

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On the weekend we heard that Biden had delivered a strong message to Putin as to what the response would be should Russia attack Ukraine with nuclear weapons. Now thanks to the Polish Foreign Minister we know what that message was - full NATO response, short of a nuclear attack.





Link

The wrinkle in this approach is that Putin has previously said that he would use nukes if he felt that Russian survival was threatened. A NATO attack might be what pushes him to launch. This is a very tricky brinkmanship exercise going on here.
If Putin is going to claim that the newly annexed parts of Ukraine are now part of “Mother Russia” and he tries to defend them with nukes then it’s time for NATO to restore Ukraines borders to before Crimea. Screw Putin. He has warned several times that Russia is a nuclear power. Well guess what. There are many other nuclear powers whose missiles are aimed down his throat.
 

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If Putin is going to claim that the newly annexed parts of Ukraine are now part of “Mother Russia” and he tries to defend them with nukes then it’s time for NATO to restore Ukraines borders to before Crimea. Screw Putin. He has warned several times that Russia is a nuclear power. Well guess what. There are many other nuclear powers whose missiles are aimed down his throat.
Any rational person understands a tit-for-tat nuclear exchange between Russia and NATO is unwinnable. Putin might not be one of those rational people.
 

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Any rational person understands a tit-for-tat nuclear exchange between Russia and NATO is unwinnable. Putin might not be one of those rational people.
Of course he isn’t rational. I am not advocating for a nuclear exchange with them. I think an overwhelming NATO deployment to free Ukraine would be a proper response.
I would hope that the Chinese would talk some sense into the butcher. China would also be destroyed in a nuclear war-and they are mostly bystanders.
Not that I trust anything the Chinese do or say….
 

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The referendums of the Ukraine oblasts are to join the Russian Federation. whether the west recognizes them or not.
That's enough of a cause for Putin to use a tactical nuke .. he doesnt have to sabotage pipelines - he can then claim Russia is being attacked. Nuclear brinksmanship is really easy to walk up to that fine line -walking it back is the touchy problem!

for years ths has been in the background but because of the rapid escalation by the west of this war,
and refusing to provide an "off-ramp" for Putin..here you go.. tiptoe time..
 

Ethel2

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The referendums of the Ukraine oblasts are to join the Russian Federation. whether the west recognizes them or not.
That's enough of a cause for Putin to use a tactical nuke .. he doesnt have to sabotage pipelines - he can then claim Russia is being attacked. Nuclear brinksmanship is really easy to walk up to that fine line -walking it back is the touchy problem!

for years ths has been in the background but because of the rapid escalation by the west of this war,
and refusing to provide an "off-ramp" for Putin..here you go.. tiptoe time..
Rapid escalation of WHAT?
Let’s place the blame where it belongs: on the Russian butcher.
Bullies cannot be appeased. It was a mistake for NATO to let it get this far. Now Putin will claim that an attack on Donetsk is an attack on “mother Russia “. Had NATO driven him out of Ukraine at the beginning such a claim would not be possible.
It’s past time to confront this asshole.
 

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Of course he isn’t rational. I am not advocating for a nuclear exchange with them. I think an overwhelming NATO deployment to free Ukraine would be a proper response.

It seems to me like you may not be advocating for nuclear exchange with Russia while at the same time advocating a force projection that actually begs for a nuclear exchange.




I would hope that the Chinese would talk some sense into the butcher. China would also be destroyed in a nuclear war-and they are mostly bystanders.
Not that I trust anything the Chinese do or say….


We living interesting times
 

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The one outcome that is probably most assured is that US militarism is going to continue expanding.

Thankfully US jets, boats, tanks, missiles, and such run on clean renewable energy.
 

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The one outcome that is probably most assured is that US militarism is going to continue expanding.

Thankfully US jets, boats, tanks, missiles, and such run on clean renewable energy.

Antiwar said "militarism".... Everyone drink!
 

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It seems to me like you may not be advocating for nuclear exchange with Russia while at the same time advocating a force projection that actually begs for a nuclear exchange.







We living interesting times
You cannot appease a bully. That’s the bottom line. He will always want more.
We should never initiate a nuclear exchange.
 

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You cannot appease a bully. That’s the bottom line. He will always want more.


That's the tricky part. The Russians in their turn- not just Putin- are convinced it's the west the bullies squeezing in on them. It's pointless whether they are right or wrong; that's their conviction.



We should never initiate a nuclear exchange.


I don't believe either side will initiate a nuclear exchange. What is more likely to happen is misunderstanding and miscommunication.
 

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That's the tricky part. The Russians in their turn- not just Putin- are convinced it's the west the bullies squeezing in on them. It's pointless whether they are right or wrong; that's their conviction.






I don't believe either side will initiate a nuclear exchange. What is more likely to happen is misunderstanding and miscommunication.
I am not even sure we should respond in kind to a nuclear attack. Tough decision.
 

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On the weekend we heard that Biden had delivered a strong message to Putin as to what the response would be should Russia attack Ukraine with nuclear weapons. Now thanks to the Polish Foreign Minister we know what that message was - full NATO response, short of a nuclear attack.





Link

The wrinkle in this approach is that Putin has previously said that he would use nukes if he felt that Russian survival was threatened. A NATO attack might be what pushes him to launch. This is a very tricky brinkmanship exercise going on here.
Whenever Putin makes comments like, "It may come down to nuclear strikes.", he is just showing the weakness of the West. The West HAS to respond to such words, but all they can manage to do is bluster about "full NATO response, short of nuclear attack". If NATO had even a minuscule set of balls, they would make it clear that any kind of nuclear action WILL result in a devastating nuclear response.

If you are going to talk big, you have to TALK BIG...even if you have no intention of taking big action.

NATO comes across looking like *****cats.
 

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Of course he isn’t rational. I am not advocating for a nuclear exchange with them. I think an overwhelming NATO deployment to free Ukraine would be a proper response.
I would hope that the Chinese would talk some sense into the butcher. China would also be destroyed in a nuclear war-and they are mostly bystanders.
Not that I trust anything the Chinese do or say….
The thing to not forget is both China and Russia have been working together to break the traditional balance of power that's existed since WW2. Whether through all of the soft power moves China's made through the years, to the establishment of BRINCS, their moves are still underway. A nuclear war between the US, China, Russia and other aligned nuclear powers is a whole nightmare scenario. What we're really banking on here is that there's enough of a sense of reason among leaders to know the outcome will be devastating to all nations involved even if the end game is to come out on top even after all of that destruction. Russia has less to lose than China, which is why I hope they're the more reasonable of the two.
 

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On the weekend we heard that Biden had delivered a strong message to Putin as to what the response would be should Russia attack Ukraine with nuclear weapons. Now thanks to the Polish Foreign Minister we know what that message was - full NATO response, short of a nuclear attack.





Link

The wrinkle in this approach is that Putin has previously said that he would use nukes if he felt that Russian survival was threatened. A NATO attack might be what pushes him to launch. This is a very tricky brinkmanship exercise going on here.
Poland has no authority to commit NATO to a war. If Poland launches their own offensive against Russia then other countries carry no article 5 obligation.
 

EMNofSeattle

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Whenever Putin makes comments like, "It may come down to nuclear strikes.", he is just showing the weakness of the West. The West HAS to respond to such words, but all they can manage to do is bluster about "full NATO response, short of nuclear attack". If NATO had even a minuscule set of balls, they would make it clear that any kind of nuclear action WILL result in a devastating nuclear response.

If you are going to talk big, you have to TALK BIG...even if you have no intention of taking big action.

NATO comes across looking like *****cats.
Why? Why should the US commit to nuclear retaliation against Russia for Ukriane’s sake? What’s in it for us?

This is hypothetical anyway since this is the Poles making noise, which is one reason why NATO expansion was a bad idea, we’re committing to the security of warmongers who want war with Russia and only talk so boldly because they wager the US is behind them.
 

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The referendums of the Ukraine oblasts are to join the Russian Federation. whether the west recognizes them or not.
That's enough of a cause for Putin to use a tactical nuke .. he doesnt have to sabotage pipelines - he can then claim Russia is being attacked. Nuclear brinksmanship is really easy to walk up to that fine line -walking it back is the touchy problem!

for years ths has been in the background but because of the rapid escalation by the west of this war,
and refusing to provide an "off-ramp" for Putin..here you go
.. tiptoe time..
The problem with this idea is Putin was the ultimate aggressor. One can certainly argue that NATO's entertaining the idea of Ukraine as a member nation was provocative, but based on Putin's own words, it seems clear there was much more afoot with his invasion than just that. The end result now is two additional nations on Russia's border; two better armed nations by the way. From the perspective of keeping NATO nations further from its border, the invasion was a total failure.
 
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