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Now what?

watsup

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Indications are that President Biden is right and that Putin will invade Ukraine within the week. Mobile hospitals are in place. Russians are being evacuated from the disputed regions of eastern Ukraine under the pretext that they are in danger from imminent attack. A big push to propagandize the Russian people that it is Ukraine that is on the cusp of STARTING a war, and that Putin will be the protector of the Ukrainian Russians.
Okay, now what. An invasion will basically change the political and economic relationships of a large portion.of the Northern hemisphere with a new “Cold War” atmosphere. Economic sanctions both ways, towards the West and towards Russia. Diplomatic relations into the pit, ambassadors recalled, no more “talks” on basically anything.
Some say that Putin will be the loser, but he is way too smart to get himself into such a bind. He claims that he wants an agreement from NATO not to expand eastward, but I think that’s just an EXCUSE for the invasion. He knows that would never happen, but he can now blame the intransigence of the West for his actions. He claims that he’s doing so in order to protect Russian citizens in Ukraine, but that’s an obvious lie, too. Fact is that he simply wants to extend his empire into the “breadbasket” of the area, plus it will give him more warm water ports. He’s a murderous thug so he doesn’t care if a few thousand of his Russian soldiers or a few then of thousand of Ukrainians die in his effort.
 

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Putin’s not dumb. He’s pretty certain that Russia can withstand any economic sanctions that the West can throw at him. He’s pretty certain that sooner or later the countries of Eastern and Western Europe will be begging him for his natural gas. Ukraine has no doubt bugged him for years, ever since they threw out the Russian installed president and went down a road of relative democracy. He was upset r that a “traditional” Russian enclave would be so uppity as to look West instead of north. He has no doubt been planning this in his mind for years. Yes, he didn’t want to do it when Trump was president because he knew that Trump was crazy and could very well actually start a nuclear war over it, so he had to wait for a “rational” leader to come into office, knowing that Biden would indeed not start a larger war,
So there you have it. What will be the outcome of the “reset” of Cold War conditions?
 

phoenix2020

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In absorbing Ukraine, Russia will increase its accessible land mass by single digit percentages and increase its economic capacity a similar amount. It will upgrade itself from also-ran to also-ran + 7%. Long story short, Russia doesn't matter. Further encroachment will result in Moscow being leveled by a hydrogen bomb so they won't push farther. We should keep our eyes on the big picture, which includes China but not Russia.

My 2 post-inflation cents...
 

Phys251

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In absorbing Ukraine, Russia will increase its accessible land mass by single digit percentages and increase its economic capacity a similar amount. It will upgrade itself from also-ran to also-ran + 7%. Long story short, Russia doesn't matter. Further encroachment will result in Moscow being leveled by a hydrogen bomb so they won't push farther. We should keep our eyes on the big picture, which includes China but not Russia.

My 2 post-inflation cents...

Russia is growing closer to China.
 

phoenix2020

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Russia is growing closer to China.
Indeed, that has been the case for some time. However, at this point, Russia is for all practical purposes just another satellite in orbit around China. This century will be dominated by China, the United States, the EU, and potentially India if they can get their act together. Russia will be an Israel-with-more-land: capable of protecting its interests, able to lean on nuclear munitions, but otherwise ineffective at projecting their ambitions much farther than their borders.

From the U.S. point of view, I consider the whole Russia-Ukraine situation to be a distraction from what really matters: U.S. and China competition on economic, military and cultural fronts.

I'd be happy to be proven wrong but I [presently] don't think I will be.

The reason there's no actual, serious debate about U.S. intervention in this situation is because Russia and Ukraine just aren't that important anymore. Think of it this way: even Kuwait was more important.
 

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Indications are that President Biden is right and that Putin will invade Ukraine within the week. Mobile hospitals are in place. Russians are being evacuated from the disputed regions of eastern Ukraine under the pretext that they are in danger from imminent attack. A big push to propagandize the Russian people that it is Ukraine that is on the cusp of STARTING a war, and that Putin will be the protector of the Ukrainian Russians.
Okay, now what. An invasion will basically change the political and economic relationships of a large portion.of the Northern hemisphere with a new “Cold War” atmosphere. Economic sanctions both ways, towards the West and towards Russia. Diplomatic relations into the pit, ambassadors recalled, no more “talks” on basically anything.
Some say that Putin will be the loser, but he is way too smart to get himself into such a bind. He claims that he wants an agreement from NATO not to expand eastward, but I think that’s just an EXCUSE for the invasion. He knows that would never happen, but he can now blame the intransigence of the West for his actions. He claims that he’s doing so in order to protect Russian citizens in Ukraine, but that’s an obvious lie, too. Fact is that he simply wants to extend his empire into the “breadbasket” of the area, plus it will give him more warm water ports. He’s a murderous thug so he doesn’t care if a few thousand of his Russian soldiers or a few then of thousand of Ukrainians die in his effort.


I disagree that it is a specifically Putin problem. All last three Russian leaders: Gorbachev, Yeltsin, Putin felt the same way about Nato eastward expansion. By and large I will say Russians- as a nation, or people- right or wrong, feel same way. The tendency in the west is to blame it on Putin megalomania. I think that is avoiding the issue. Kind of a pretense things would be right with Russia but for Putin.

As far back as the implosion of the Soviet Union the issue of Nato expansion eastwards came up. Many in the west pointed out that pushing into formerly Russian dominated areas was bound to lead to complications down the road. So the present state of affairs should not come as a surprise.

Now I am not saying Nato should not have taken advantage of the implosion of the Soviet Union and pushed east. It would have been malpractive if Nato had not. Nor is it easy to say things would be any better if Nato had not expanded. Yet it is undeniable that it should have been kept in mind that the relentless expansion was bound to run into Russian push back, and there had to have been some plans on how to address that.

Both powers should sit down and negotiate a grand settlement. The Nato claim that Russia has no say on who its neighbours contract military alliances with is nonesense. The fact of the matter is Russia has a say. It is not a right. It is a previledge only the powerful can afford.
 

Phys251

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Indeed, that has been the case for some time. However, at this point, Russia is for all practical purposes just another satellite in orbit around China. This century will be dominated by China, the United States, the EU, and potentially India if they can get their act together. Russia will be an Israel-with-more-land: capable of protecting its interests, able to lean on nuclear munitions, but otherwise ineffective at projecting them much farther than their borders.

From the U.S. point of view, I consider the whole Russia-Ukraine situation to be a distraction from what really matters: U.S. and China competition on economic, military and cultural fronts.

I'd be happy to be proven wrong but I don't think I will be.

Careful--you're adopting some Russian propaganda there. Putin is a bully who doesn't care about the sovereignty of Ukraine, who deserves the right to decide their own course in the world.
 

Phys251

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I disagree that it is a specifically Putin problem. All last three Russian leaders: Gorbachev, Yeltsin, Putin felt the same way about Nato eastward expansion. By and large I will say Russians- as a nation, or people- right or wrong, feel same way. The tendency in the west is to blame it on Putin megalomania. I think that is avoiding the issue. Kind of a pretense things would be right with Russia but for Putin.

As far back as the implosion of the Soviet Union the issue of Nato expansion eastwards came up. Many in the west pointed out that pushing into formerly Russian dominated areas was bound to lead to complications down the road. So the present state of affairs should not come as a surprise.

Now I am not saying Nato should not have taken advantage of the implosion of the Soviet Union and pushed east. It would have been malpractive if Nato had not. Nor is it easy to say things would be any better if Nato had not expanded. Yet it is undeniable that it should have been kept in mind that the relentless expansion was bound to run into Russian push back, and there had to have been some plans on how to address that.

Both powers should sit down and negotiate a grand settlement. The Nato claim that Russia has no say on who its neighbours contract military alliances with is nonesense. The fact of the matter is Russia has a say. It is not a right. It is a previledge only the powerful can afford.

^ This is what Russian propaganda looks like.

Putin's behavior is exactly why NATO has to continue to exist. Without it, Putin could invade more countries in Europe with little consequence.
 
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phoenix2020

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Careful--you're adopting some Russian propaganda there. Putin is a bully who doesn't care about the sovereignty of Ukraine, who deserves the right to decide their own course in the world.
The text in bold is not terribly meaningful. I could say 'careful @Phys251, you're adopting some Chinese propaganda there' and it would be as meaningful e.g. not very. Yes, Putin is the 6th grader who will bully some of the 2nd graders on his western borders. I don't disagree with any of that. But, seriously, how much of the global status quo actually changes? Russia gains a tiny amount of capability, becomes a global pariah for it, and upgrades itself from (to quote one of our arguably racist brethren) "Nigeria with snow" to "Nigeria with snow and a small part of Ukraine." To the OP's question of "what now" I would say the answer is that little actually changes. The conflict of the century continues to be U.S. (+ EU frenemy) vs. China vs. maybe-India.

I hate to say this but from the perspective of geopolitical importance, "will Russia invade Ukraine" is probably not as important as "will Russia invade Ukraine during the Olympics in China, pissing off 1.4 billion Chinese citizens?" It's sad, but I do believe that is the reality of the situation.
 

Phys251

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The text in bold is not terribly meaningful. I could say 'careful @Phys251, you're adopting some Chinese propaganda there' and it would be as meaningful e.g. not very. Yes, Putin is the 6th grader who will bully some of the 2nd graders on his western borders. I don't disagree with any of that. But, seriously, how much of the global status quo actually changes? Russia gains a tiny amount of capability, becomes a global pariah for it, and upgrades itself from (to quote one of our arguably racist brethren) "Nigeria with snow" to "Nigeria with snow and a small part of Ukraine." To the OP's question of "what now" I would say the answer is that little actually changes. The conflict of the century continues to be U.S. (+ EU frenemy) vs. China vs. maybe-India.

No. If you read between the lines of what I said, I want Russia and China checked, in that order. Righties want China checked and Russia to run free.

And don't forget that Russia is a shithole country. Rampant corruption, organized crime, extreme right-wing values (for instance, they decriminalized domestic violence years ago). Ukraine has the right not to be a part of that.
 

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Indeed, that has been the case for some time. However, at this point, Russia is for all practical purposes just another satellite in orbit around China. This century will be dominated by China, the United States, the EU, and potentially India if they can get their act together. Russia will be an Israel-with-more-land: capable of protecting its interests, able to lean on nuclear munitions, but otherwise ineffective at projecting their ambitions much farther than their borders.

From the U.S. point of view, I consider the whole Russia-Ukraine situation to be a distraction from what really matters: U.S. and China competition on economic, military and cultural fronts.

I'd be happy to be proven wrong but I [presently] don't think I will be.

The reason there's no actual, serious debate about U.S. intervention in this situation is because Russia and Ukraine just aren't that important anymore. Think of it this way: even Kuwait was more important.


I think Russia has overtaken China. Or at least Putin has. Look at it this way. Lets say you are say a Iran, Venezuela, or some other rogue state in need for protection; will you turn to Putin or China? Its like a credit ratings. For Security Guard companies. Putin being CEO of a Security Guard company. Or a hired gun if you will. Syria's Assad can attest to the efficacy of Putin as a hired gun. Chechnya also adds to his portfolio as a hired gun. The Chinese folder is empty. Putin is much more likely to emerge as the anti pole of the western pole.
 

phoenix2020

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No. If you read between the lines of what I said, I want Russia and China checked, in that order. Righties want China checked and Russia to run free.
Sure. I don't really identify as a 'rightie' or 'lefty' so I can't speak to that. I want China checked, and I don't pay a lot of attention to Russia unless they blow up a satellite or commit a cyberattack on our assets.
And don't forget that Russia is a shithole country. Rampant corruption, organized crime, extreme right-wing values (for instance, they decriminalized domestic violence years ago). Ukraine has the right not to be a part of that.
Great. I agree they have the right to not be a part of Russia. What do you think the U.S. should do about it? What are you willing to commit to ensure they're not a part of Russia?
 

Phys251

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Sure. I don't really identify as a 'rightie' or 'lefty' so I can't speak to that. I want China checked, and I don't pay a lot of attention to Russia unless they blow up a satellite or commit a cyberattack on our assets.

You might want to start paying attention. You think gas is expensive now? Just wait until Putin invades. Get ready for $4-$5 gas.

Great. I agree they have the right to not be a part of Russia. What do you think the U.S. should do about it? What are you willing to commit to ensure they're not a part of Russia?

That's a good question. It has to start with a strong diplomatic stance from the West. Thankfully we have a real President now instead of one who would kiss Putin's ass.
 

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I think Russia has overtaken China. Or at least Putin has. Look at it this way. Lets say you are say a Iran, Venezuela, or some other rogue state in need for protection; will you turn to Putin or China? Its like a credit ratings. For Security Guard companies. Putin being CEO of a Security Guard company. Or a hired gun if you will. Syria's Assad can attest to the efficacy of Putin as a hired gun. Chechnya also adds to his portfolio as a hired gun. The Chinese folder is empty. Putin is much more likely to emerge as the anti pole of the western pole.
You turn to China of course. They are the ones developing global currency alternatives to the United States. They are the ones that have a financial system to rival the United States. They are the ones that can supply your people with food, fuel and household goods. They are the ones who will build the economic engines within your borders that you crave. They are the ones who will provide access to clean energy, mobility, quantum computing and advanced semiconductors. They are the ones who can build your rail networks and deploy cellular networks.

What do Putin and Russia offer? Fossil fuels and... uh... um... oh yeah. Just some fossil fuels.
 

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You might want to start paying attention. You think gas is expensive now? Just wait until Putin invades. Get ready for $4-$5 gas.
Dude, I live in California. Our gasoline has been at $5/gallon for a few years now. But it's true I don't pay too much attention since I don't need gasoline anymore.
That's a good question. It has to start with a strong diplomatic stance from the West. Thankfully we have a real President now instead of one who would kiss Putin's ass.
Sure, everyone's saying "we will have strong sanctions!" I just don't see how big a deterrent that is. All it does is send everyone who might take issue with us deeper into the orbit of China's banking network.
 

Phys251

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Dude, I live in California. Our gasoline has been at $5/gallon for a few years now. But it's true I don't pay too much attention since I don't need gasoline anymore.

Then get ready for $6. Not joking--it is very likely gas prices are going to surge if Russia invades.

Sure, everyone's saying "we will have strong sanctions!" I just don't see how big a deterrent that is. All it does is send everyone who might take issue with us deeper into the orbit of China's banking network.

I'm not sure TBH. Putin may invade tomorrow. Or he may be trying to bait the West into blinking first. Either way we will find out.
 

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I'm not sure TBH. Putin may invade tomorrow. Or he may be trying to bait the West into blinking first. Either way we will find out.
Well I hope he doesn't, and I am hoping the Ukrainian people will be safe.
 

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I disagree that it is a specifically Putin problem. All last three Russian leaders: Gorbachev, Yeltsin, Putin felt the same way about Nato eastward expansion. By and large I will say Russians- as a nation, or people- right or wrong, feel same way. The tendency in the west is to blame it on Putin megalomania. I think that is avoiding the issue. Kind of a pretense things would be right with Russia but for Putin.

As far back as the implosion of the Soviet Union the issue of Nato expansion eastwards came up. Many in the west pointed out that pushing into formerly Russian dominated areas was bound to lead to complications down the road. So the present state of affairs should not come as a surprise.

Now I am not saying Nato should not have taken advantage of the implosion of the Soviet Union and pushed east. It would have been malpractive if Nato had not. Nor is it easy to say things would be any better if Nato had not expanded. Yet it is undeniable that it should have been kept in mind that the relentless expansion was bound to run into Russian push back, and there had to have been some plans on how to address that.

Both powers should sit down and negotiate a grand settlement. The Nato claim that Russia has no say on who its neighbours contract military alliances with is nonesense. The fact of the matter is Russia has a say. It is not a right. It is a previledge only the powerful can afford.

I still think that Putin is using NATO expansion as just an EXCUSE to do what he was going to do anyway, which is to bring Ukraine firmly back into the Russian orbit.
I also disagree with those who claim that it will be worse than Afghanistan for the Russians. The people of Ukraine are not a bunch of backwards fanatics like the Taliban and others in Afghanistan, nor is the countryside a maze of mountains and tribal interests. Those in Ukraine are a modern peoples who are used to living somewhat well. I suspect it will all be over in a month to six weeks, at most, maybe not that long. Unfortunately, the fine people of Ukraine will just have to get used to living under Russian domination, and a very large segment of them will adapt somewhat quickly so that they can get on with their lives. Those that don’t will be thrown in jail or “disappeared”. A real shame, but it’s what murderous thigs do.
 

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Unfortunately for the Ukrainian people, Putin’s invasion will be a masterpiece. Like in Crimea, all communications will be shut down and any computer network of any importance will be hacked. Centers of power will be the immediate targets for occupation. As with every Russian war going back for centuries, the slaughter of any opposition will be brutal. The Russians simply don’t have any conscience or any adherence to the Geneva conventions.
 

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I still think that Putin is using NATO expansion as just an EXCUSE to do what he was going to do anyway, which is to bring Ukraine firmly back into the Russian orbit.
I also disagree with those who claim that it will be worse than Afghanistan for the Russians. The people of Ukraine are not a bunch of backwards fanatics like the Taliban and others in Afghanistan, nor is the countryside a maze of mountains and tribal interests. Those in Ukraine are a modern peoples who are used to living somewhat well. I suspect it will all be over in a month to six weeks, at most, maybe not that long. Unfortunately, the fine people of Ukraine will just have to get used to living under Russian domination, and a very large segment of them will adapt somewhat quickly so that they can get on with their lives. Those that don’t will be thrown in jail or “disappeared”. A real shame, but it’s what murderous thigs do.



I believe there is much truth to your analysis.
 

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You might want to start paying attention. You think gas is expensive now? Just wait until Putin invades. Get ready for $4-$5 gas.



Get ready???? I have been groaning under $4.65/gal for quite a while now. You must be living in some paradise if $4/gal is not yet in your rear view mirror
 

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Putin’s not dumb. He’s pretty certain that Russia can withstand any economic sanctions that the West can throw at him. He’s pretty certain that sooner or later the countries of Eastern and Western Europe will be begging him for his natural gas. Ukraine has no doubt bugged him for years, ever since they threw out the Russian installed president and went down a road of relative democracy. He was upset r that a “traditional” Russian enclave would be so uppity as to look West instead of north. He has no doubt been planning this in his mind for years. Yes, he didn’t want to do it when Trump was president because he knew that Trump was crazy and could very well actually start a nuclear war over it, so he had to wait for a “rational” leader to come into office, knowing that Biden would indeed not start a larger war,
So there you have it. What will be the outcome of the “reset” of Cold War conditions?
Careful, your praise for Putin means you voted for Trump. Deplorable stuff.
 

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Invasion may be bad for Russia but good for Putin. It's not a contradiction. He could be aiming for even more power in the Duma, which does not have a fixed term.

(Mind you his party United Russia holds 72% in the Duma and 83% in the Federation Council, more than enough to rewrite the Constitution)
 

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Indications are that President Biden is right and that Putin will invade Ukraine within the week.
Still waiting for any shred of evidence .Even a teeny weeny one .

He will doubtless protect his New Republics if required , but that has as much to do with invasion as it has to do with the price of a sandwich .
 

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Russia is growing closer to China.
No .
The big two are now in a super two team league and the US has nowhere to go .
The shortest ever Empire and one based on control and fear has been largely ignored and already largely bypassed .

Perhaps the US should enter the Banana market .The UK consumes enormous amounts and we are just about your only remaining notional pals . God help us .
 
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