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Now Here’s a Shocking Poll: Cuomo 49, Paladino 43

RightinNYC

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Now Here's a Shocking Poll: Cuomo 49, Paladino 43 - NYTimes.com

[E]very now and then, a poll comes along that really forces us to reconsider what we thought we knew about a particular race. There is one such poll out this morning from Quinnipiac University, which finds the Republican nominee of governor in New York, Carl Paladino, only 6 points behind the Democrat, Andrew Cuomo. Mr. Cuomo has 49 percent of the vote in the poll, and Mr. Paladino 43 percent.

Polls taken before the primary on Sept. 14 showed Mr. Cuomo leading Mr. Paladino by much wider margins, ranging from 23 points to 45 points. This includes three prior polls by Quinnipiac University, which had shown leads of 36, 30 and 37 points for Mr. Cuomo.

That's certainly a surprise. The poll didn't include Lazio, which could be a big factor, but for Paladino even to be within 20 is not what I expected.
 

donsutherland1

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My guess is that Andrew Cuomo will probably win the election by 6-12 points, as Mr. Paladino has taken some positions that are likely unrealistic e.g., pledging to cut spending by 20% in the first year. How will he be able to do so? The details are not available. Of course, given some of Mr. Paladino's past statements, he could well self-destruct. At the same time, Andrew Cuomo cannot refuse to debate. If he does so, independent voters could begin to question the reasons for his avoiding a public discussion of the issues.

Nonetheless, one cannot help but recall that Andrew's father, Mario Cuomo had a very difficult fight in 1982. Then, Rite Aid entrepreneur Lew Lehrman ran for the Republicans and lost by just 3 percentage points. Then, as now, the economy was weak and the State was facing major challenges. Mario Cuomo is a far more powerful and articulate speaker than his son, and he had success in getting his ideas across to voters.

Today, there is also a fairly strong anti-incumbent headwind blowing across the U.S. Mr. Paladino's best chance lies with persuading independent voters that Andrew Cuomo is part of the political establishment responsible for the nation's/State's problems (HUD, NYS government, etc.). Mr. Cuomo's best chance rests with his staying focused on the issues and seeking to place the burden on Mr. Paladino to explain how he would achieve his agenda e.g., how would he bring about the political compromises necessary to achieve his objectives.
 

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