NOAA - Arctic Report Card -warming temperatures and melting ice

[Media_Truth]

Since it's only happened once before, how do we know it's unusual? I agree that it is happening faster than the previous time, but there are also many more people on the earth now than before. That alone would change the variables. Since it's not comparable because of the amount of people and animals there are now, we don't know what a 'normal' speed of change there should be, only that it is faster than previously.

People and animals - please explain. In the middle ages, many more animals probably roamed the earth. What is your variable? Farting and excrement releasing CO2? That said - I agree that more people are causing the warming - more people burning fossil fuels...

 

[holbritter]

People and animals - please explain. In the middle ages, many more animals probably roamed the earth. What is your variable? Farting and excrement releasing CO2? That said - I agree that more people are causing the warming - more people burning fossil fuels...

I'm comparing to the Ice Age, not the Middle Ages, but yes, since we are currently in an interglacial period that started about 11,000 years ago, the Middle Ages would be included. I'm not talking about just 200 or so years.

 

[Tim the plumber]

I presume that by "end of the Ice Age" you mean the warming of about 6 C over 10,000 years or so that led to the current interglacial period? This is generally thought to be due to small variations in solar insolation arising from cyclical changes in the Earth's orbit and axial inclination whose effects were amplified by positive feedbacks such as changes in ice cover and greenhouse gas concentration.

The current warming of about 1 C in 100 years is approximately 16 times as fast as the warming that marked the end of ice age conditions, so something very unusual indeed is happening to the Earth's climate!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globa...edia/File:Holocene_Temperature_Variations.png

No it wasn't.

 

[Surface Detail]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globa...edia/File:Holocene_Temperature_Variations.png

No it wasn't.

I'm not sure what your point is. That graph doesn't even show the period in question, when the Earth warmed from the depths of the ice age to interglacial conditions. This occurred over a period of about 10,000 years, starting about 20,000 years ago and ending about 10,000 years ago.

 

[Tim the plumber]

I'm not sure what your point is. That graph doesn't even show the period in question, when the Earth warmed from the depths of the ice age to interglacial conditions. This occurred over a period of about 10,000 years, starting about 20,000 years ago and ending about 10,000 years ago.

According to the graph we went from very very cold, like 4c or more less than now to warm, now-ish between 11.8 and 11.6 thousand years ago. The red line proxy shows something even steeper.

The central England temperature record, the longest one we have, shows several periods of faster warming than the late 20th century. And obviously since then it's been flat.

We also have the central

 

[Surface Detail]

According to the graph we went from very very cold, like 4c or more less than now to warm, now-ish between 11.8 and 11.6 thousand years ago. The red line proxy shows something even steeper.

The central England temperature record, the longest one we have, shows several periods of faster warming than the late 20th century. And obviously since then it's been flat.

We also have the central

Where do you get 4 C from?

 

[Tim the plumber]

Where do you get 4 C from?

From the fact that the ice age was at least 4c colder than now.

Also we have the central England temperature record, the longest one we have with thermometers, which shows several periods when the temperature rose more quickly than the he late 20th century. Don't know why that did not get into the last post...

 

[Threegoofs]

From the fact that the ice age was at least 4c colder than now.

Also we have the central England temperature record, the longest one we have with thermometers, which shows several periods when the temperature rose more quickly than the he late 20th century. Don't know why that did not get into the last post...

Arent you the guy whining about how one or two degrees temp difference won’t mean anything?

Yet you have the cognitive ability to grasp that the difference between an ice age and no ice age is only 4 degrees?

LOL

 

[Media_Truth]

I'm comparing to the Ice Age, not the Middle Ages, but yes, since we are currently in an interglacial period that started about 11,000 years ago, the Middle Ages would be included. I'm not talking about just 200 or so years.

Others have responded aptly - the short-duration current warming is unprecedented, even when considering your timeframe.

Secondly - Ice core data is a scientific tool. Scientists use them, understanding all the uncertainties.

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/icecore/ice-cores.pdf

1. Timescale uncertainty
2. Diffusion uncertainty
3. Sampling uncertainty
4. Spatial uncertainty
5. Uncertainties in physical relationships

 

[Surface Detail]

From the fact that the ice age was at least 4c colder than now.

Also we have the central England temperature record, the longest one we have with thermometers, which shows several periods when the temperature rose more quickly than the he late 20th century. Don't know why that did not get into the last post...

Because I wouldn't be stupid enough to conflate the central England temperature with the global temperature.

 

[Tim the plumber]

Arent you the guy whining about how one or two degrees temp difference won’t mean anything?

Yet you have the cognitive ability to grasp that the difference between an ice age and no ice age is only 4 degrees?

LOL

2c colder would be catastrophic.

2c warmer sounds great.

 

[Jack Hays]

[h=2]Arctic Glaciers ADVANCED 16 km During 2008-2016 In A Region That Was 6°C Warmer ~9,000 Years Ago[/h]By Kenneth Richard on 20. December 2018

 

[Media_Truth]

[h=2]Arctic Glaciers ADVANCED 16 km During 2008-2016 In A Region That Was 6°C Warmer ~9,000 Years Ago[/h]By Kenneth Richard on 20. December 2018

I got an idea. Let's look at some blog that says something happened 9000 years ago. And then let's use that to tell some of the best Scientists in the world, the NOAA, that their data is wrong ---
Surface air temperatures in the Arctic continued to warm at twice the rate relative to the rest of the globe. Arctic air temperatures for the past five years (2014-18) have exceeded all previous records since 1900.
In 2018 Arctic sea ice remained younger, thinner, and covered less area than in the past. The 12 lowest extents in the satellite record have occurred in the last 12 years.
.......

 

[Tim the plumber]

I got an idea. Let's look at some blog that says something happened 9000 years ago. And then let's use that to tell some of the best Scientists in the world, the NOAA, that their data is wrong ---
Surface air temperatures in the Arctic continued to warm at twice the rate relative to the rest of the globe. Arctic air temperatures for the past five years (2014-18) have exceeded all previous records since 1900.
In 2018 Arctic sea ice remained younger, thinner, and covered less area than in the past. The 12 lowest extents in the satellite record have occurred in the last 12 years.
.......

You didn't read it then.

Lovell et al., 2018

Røthe et al., 2018

Fjeldskaar et al., 2018

Tarasov et al., 2018

Köseoğlu et al., 2018

 

[Surface Detail]

[h=2]Arctic Glaciers ADVANCED 16 km During 2008-2016 In A Region That Was 6°C Warmer ~9,000 Years Ago[/h]By Kenneth Richard on 20. December 2018

Yes, this is yet another indication of a warming climate. As the climate warms, the glaciers are able to flow more easily and can surge forwards. Heidi Sevestre, one of the authors of the first paper cited by your source, explains:

Water and warmth, they determined, were key. "These surges are very different in character and magnitude from what we've been used to seeing in Svalbard, a real shift in behavior," Sevestre says.

Surges are complex, the likely result of several factors. Their study indicated the warmer the climate, the more calving glaciers will melt at their front. That increases the slope compared to the rest of the glacier. The steeper the slope, the faster it moves, stretching the glacier and creating more crevasses. Enter precipitation. Glaciers surge when water accumulates at the base of the ice.

Water can accumulate at the bed of glaciers from several causes. A large thickening from snow accumulation can lower the pressure melting point of the ice creating meltwater. Warmer ice can move more easily and that friction in turn creates more warming. Water can also come from surface melting and precipitation and enter rapidly through crevasses. That water acts as a lubricant, triggering a surge that dumps a massive amount of ice, through calving, and water, through melting, into the seas.

What the Surging Glaciers of Svalbard Tell Us About the Future of Rising Seas

 

[Jack Hays]

I got an idea. Let's look at some blog that says something happened 9000 years ago. And then let's use that to tell some of the best Scientists in the world, the NOAA, that their data is wrong ---
Surface air temperatures in the Arctic continued to warm at twice the rate relative to the rest of the globe. Arctic air temperatures for the past five years (2014-18) have exceeded all previous records since 1900.
In 2018 Arctic sea ice remained younger, thinner, and covered less area than in the past. The 12 lowest extents in the satellite record have occurred in the last 12 years.
.......

From the link at #62:

[h=4]

[/h][h=3]Lovell et al., 2018[/h][h=6]“Most large tidewater glaciers in Svalbard are known to have surged at least once in the last few hundred years. However, very little information exists on the frequency, timing or magnitude of surges prior to the Little Ice Age (LIA) maximum in ∼1900. We investigate the sediment-landform assemblages produced by multiple advances of the Nathorstbreen glacier system (NGS) in order to reconstruct its Late Holocene surge history. The glacier has recently undergone one of the largest surges ever observed in Svalbard, advancing ∼16 km from 2008 to 2016.”[/h][h=6]“By combining these data with previous marine geological investigations in inner and outer Van Keulenfjorden, we demonstrate that NGS [Nathorstbreen glacier system] has advanced at least four times prior to the recent 2008–2016 surge: twice at ∼2.7 kyr BP, at ∼1160 AD, and in ∼1890. This represents a unique record of the timing and magnitude of Late Holocene tidewater glacier surges in Svalbard.”[/h]

 

[Jack Hays]

Yes, this is yet another indication of a warming climate. As the climate warms, the glaciers are able to flow more easily and can surge forwards. Heidi Sevestre, one of the authors of the first paper cited by your source, explains:



What the Surging Glaciers of Svalbard Tell Us About the Future of Rising Seas

“By combining these data with previous marine geological investigations in inner and outer Van Keulenfjorden, we demonstrate that NGS [Nathorstbreen glacier system] has advanced at least four times prior to the recent 2008–2016 surge: twice at ∼2.7 kyr BP, at ∼1160 AD, and in ∼1890. This represents a unique record of the timing and magnitude of Late Holocene tidewater glacier surges in Svalbard.”

 

[Surface Detail]

“By combining these data with previous marine geological investigations in inner and outer Van Keulenfjorden, we demonstrate that NGS [Nathorstbreen glacier system] has advanced at least four times prior to the recent 2008–2016 surge: twice at ∼2.7 kyr BP, at ∼1160 AD, and in ∼1890. This represents a unique record of the timing and magnitude of Late Holocene tidewater glacier surges in Svalbard.”

Yes, you already linked to this and I read it and did a little more research on the topic. I'm not sure why you feel the need to keep quoting it. As one of the authors, Heidi Sevestre, explains here, these surges seem to be triggered by the accumulation of water at the base of the glacier, which allows it it slide more rapidly:

Timelapse and glaciology: 8 questions to Dr. Heidi Sevestre

"I am particularly interested in the phenomenon of glacial surges. This phenomenon, unknown to the general public, remains one of the greatest enigmas in glaciology. Some glaciers have the ability to accelerate for several years, reaching crazy speeds between 1 and 50 m per day! It’s the surge. Once the surge is over, the glacier goes into “hibernation” for several decades … before starting to overflow again. Water is one of the keys to this phenomenon, especially when it accumulates under the glacier and allows it to slide extremely fast. For us, the time lapse is the most appropriate tool for the study of glacial surges. The cameras can capture the birth of the surge, the acceleration of the glacier and the end of the acceleration. It is very easy to measure the velocities reached by the glacier in this way. The images can also reveal the entrances and exits of water, and understand why and how the glacier surges!"

 

[Jack Hays]

Yes, you already linked to this and I read it and did a little more research on the topic. I'm not sure why you feel the need to keep quoting it. As one of the authors, Heidi Sevestre, explains here, these surges seem to be triggered by the accumulation of water at the base of the glacier, which allows it it slide more rapidly:

Timelapse and glaciology: 8 questions to Dr. Heidi Sevestre

"I am particularly interested in the phenomenon of glacial surges. This phenomenon, unknown to the general public, remains one of the greatest enigmas in glaciology. Some glaciers have the ability to accelerate for several years, reaching crazy speeds between 1 and 50 m per day! It’s the surge. Once the surge is over, the glacier goes into “hibernation” for several decades … before starting to overflow again. Water is one of the keys to this phenomenon, especially when it accumulates under the glacier and allows it to slide extremely fast. For us, the time lapse is the most appropriate tool for the study of glacial surges. The cameras can capture the birth of the surge, the acceleration of the glacier and the end of the acceleration. It is very easy to measure the velocities reached by the glacier in this way. The images can also reveal the entrances and exits of water, and understand why and how the glacier surges!"

Yes, and it has happened before.

 

[Surface Detail]

Yes, and it has happened before.

Indeed it has. Many times. Presumably whenever a sufficient amount of water accumulates at the base of a glacier.

 

[Into the Night]

Yes, this is yet another indication of a warming climate. As the climate warms, the glaciers are able to flow more easily and can surge forwards. Heidi Sevestre, one of the authors of the first paper cited by your source, explains:



What the Surging Glaciers of Svalbard Tell Us About the Future of Rising Seas

Do rivers cause the sea to rise, dude? Glaciers are just slow moving rivers.

 

[Into the Night]

I got an idea. Let's look at some blog that says something happened 9000 years ago. And then let's use that to tell some of the best Scientists in the world, the NOAA, that their data is wrong ---
Surface air temperatures in the Arctic continued to warm at twice the rate relative to the rest of the globe. Arctic air temperatures for the past five years (2014-18) have exceeded all previous records since 1900.
In 2018 Arctic sea ice remained younger, thinner, and covered less area than in the past. The 12 lowest extents in the satellite record have occurred in the last 12 years.
.......

Their data is wrong. You don't need to look at 9000 year old anything to see that! It is not possible to measure the temperature of the Earth.

 

[Media_Truth]

Indeed it has. Many times. Presumably whenever a sufficient amount of water accumulates at the base of a glacier.

Somehow, deniers like to point to every historical event, and conclude, that the vast majority of Scientists and Climatologists around the world, are wrong about the unprecedented rapid warming that the earth is experiencing today.

 

[Jack Hays]

Somehow, deniers like to point to every historical event, and conclude, that the vast majority of Scientists and Climatologists around the world, are wrong about the unprecedented rapid warming that the earth is experiencing today.

When you go low, we go high.

[h=4]

[/h][h=3]Lovell et al., 2018[/h][h=6]“Most large tidewater glaciers in Svalbard are known to have surged at least once in the last few hundred years. However, very little information exists on the frequency, timing or magnitude of surges prior to the Little Ice Age (LIA) maximum in ∼1900. We investigate the sediment-landform assemblages produced by multiple advances of the Nathorstbreen glacier system (NGS) in order to reconstruct its Late Holocene surge history. The glacier has recently undergone one of the largest surges ever observed in Svalbard, advancing ∼16 km from 2008 to 2016.”[/h][h=6]“By combining these data with previous marine geological investigations in inner and outer Van Keulenfjorden, we demonstrate that NGS [Nathorstbreen glacier system] has advanced at least four times prior to the recent 2008–2016 surge: twice at ∼2.7 kyr BP, at ∼1160 AD, and in ∼1890. This represents a unique record of the timing and magnitude of Late Holocene tidewater glacier surges in Svalbard.”[/h]

 

[Media_Truth]

You didn't read it then.

Lovell et al., 2018

Røthe et al., 2018

Fjeldskaar et al., 2018

Tarasov et al., 2018

Köseoğlu et al., 2018

Have you seen what the real scientists are saying. The first words that show up on this video are - "2018 Arctic Report Card" and "The Melting Arctic". American citizens owe it to themselves to watch this video.