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Social Security's Chief Actuary confirms in a letter to members of Congress that if we permanently eliminate the payroll tax next year as Trump has proposed, the trust fund will go broke and no longer be able to pay benefits sometime in 2023.
That's some re-election platform!
While benefits scheduled in the law for OASI and DI are obligations, such obligations can only be met to the extent that asset reserves are available in the OASI and DI Trust Funds. The law does not provide authority for the trust funds to borrow in order to pay benefits beyond the limited authority for “advance tax transfers.” This limited authority allows all payroll tax income expected for a month to be advanced to the beginning of that month if needed to meet benefit obligations on a timely basis. Thus, under this hypothetical legislation, benefit obligations could not be met after the depletion of the asset reserves and elimination of payroll taxes.
If this hypothetical legislation were enacted, with no alternative source of revenue to replace the elimination of payroll taxes on earned income paid on January 1, 2021 and thereafter, we estimate that DI Trust Fund asset reserves would become permanently depleted in about the middle of calendar year 2021, with no ability to pay DI benefits thereafter. We estimate that OASI Trust Fund reserves would become permanently depleted by the middle of calendar year 2023, with no ability to pay OASI benefits thereafter.
That's some re-election platform!