No, Frozen Wind Turbines Did Not Cause the Texas Blackouts

[dcsports]

How would you respond to the ERCOT spokesman assessment?

I can't respond to your out of context quote, other than perhaps you are trying to leverage it to attempt to make a point. This doesn't contradict anything I said.

Wind accounts for 15.7% of ERCOT's power. As much as 50% of this (40% now) was offline. So it accounts for about 7-8% of the offline capacity. 25% was offline, a third of which was wind and solar. (Solar is around 1%, and it was all offline or severely degraded.)

So, yes, it wasn't all the 'fault' of wind and solar. But those forms of power generation suffered the most (by far) from these conditions. That doesn't make them 'bad' - but highlights that those forms of energy have severe limitations that we need to understand and prepare for. For example, six coal plants were taken offline in the past decade, despite concerns that coal plants are some of the most reliable and secure (they and nuclear store their fuel onsite). Should we have maintained these in a reserve status for an emergency like this until additional reserve capacity is online?

If you want to lay fault... it's probably with developers promoting 'all electric' houses as 'green' - discounting the fact that resistance heat (electric) is far less efficient than natural gas.

 

[Vern]

Actually, wind accounts for 15.7% of power in Texas, and 17.4% of the power used by ERCOT, which is where the issue is. (Some areas, including El Paso and parts of the panhandle, use a different power grid.) The state uses more wind energy as a percent than any other.
.....
It's not 'wind's fault' - but to say it wasn't a key contributor is foolish. This highlights the need to understand the limitations of any technology.

DC, thats seems like perfectly acceptable comment. The first problem is the typical lying conservative narrative is that its all wind power's fault. the numbers you have from 2017 are for total generation. Ercot only planned to have 7% wind for the winter peak

It’s estimated that of the grid’s total winter capacity, about 80% of it, or 67 gigawatts, could be generated by natural gas, coal and some nuclear power. Only 7% of ERCOT’s forecasted winter capacity, or 6 gigawatts, was expected to come from various wind power sources across the state.

No, frozen wind turbines aren’t to blame for Texas’ power outages | The Texas Tribune

The second problem is I dont it was key. Something tells me that "lack of gas" was the biggest driver of lost generation. Cold related outages of wind and fossil will be distant second.

Most of the generation that tripped offline Tuesday, primarily in Texas' ERCOT region, was caused by issues in the natural gas supply system, said Woodfin — several pipes and wellheads froze, leaving the plants fuel-constrained. This led to about half ERCOT's natural gas fleet and about 30% of its total capacity to come offline

FERC, NERC to investigate mass outages across ERCOT, SPP, MISO | Utility Dive

Woodfin is ERCOT senior director of system operations.

 

[dcsports]

Republicans fought tooth and nail to refuse the American Puerto Rican people any assistance, but are now joyfully requesting aid for their own policy errors.

Hypocrites, the lot of them.

False

 

[Montgomery]

It's probably too late to change now but government may have been able to do it better. There might have been more emphasis on people's wellbeing and less emphasis on making a big profit.

Now it's probably better to just trade in the highheel boots for mukluks!

 

[dcsports]

Wind energy was a contributor, but not a key contributor.

"And the loss of power to the grid caused by shutdowns of thermal power plants, primarily those relying on natural gas, dwarfed the dent caused by frozen wind turbines, by a factor of five or six."​

This highlights the need to understand the limitations of a free market.

"What has sent Texas reeling is not an engineering problem, nor is it the frozen wind turbines blamed by prominent Republicans. It is a financial structure for power generation that offers no incentives to power plant operators to prepare for winter. In the name of deregulation and free markets, critics say, Texas has created an electric grid that puts an emphasis on cheap prices over reliable service."​

Yes, it's a key contributor. 1/3 of the offline power generating capacity lost.

And you are loosing the forest for the trees. It's only 1/3 of the lost capacity because it accounts for 15.7% of energy production (still the most of ANY state). Half of wind was offline, as opposed to something like 10% of non-wind. Do we continue to make ourselves more venerable by increasing the amount of reliance on wind, without planning for severe weather that can knock it out?

 

[Clownonthewing]

Yes, it's a key contributor. 1/3 of the offline power generating capacity lost.

And you are loosing the forest for the trees. It's only 1/3 of the lost capacity because it accounts for 15.7% of energy production (still the most of ANY state). Half of wind was offline, as opposed to something like 10% of non-wind. Do we continue to make ourselves more venerable by increasing the amount of reliance on wind, without planning for severe weather that can knock it out?

You do realize there are methods to winterize windmills to prevent them from freezing? These have inherent costs to them, costs which the private company in Texas decided to forego. Winterizing fossil fuels have inherent cost as well. You can’t demonize any one power source because of this event, but the only reason we are having this discussion is as a reaction to the conservative media spin machine trying to deflect blame away from failed policies in Texas.

 

[BlueTex]

I can't respond to your out of context quote, other than perhaps you are trying to leverage it to attempt to make a point. This doesn't contradict anything I said.

Wind accounts for 15.7% of ERCOT's power. As much as 50% of this (40% now) was offline. So it accounts for about 7-8% of the offline capacity. 25% was offline, a third of which was wind and solar. (Solar is around 1%, and it was all offline or severely degraded.)

So, yes, it wasn't all the 'fault' of wind and solar. But those forms of power generation suffered the most (by far) from these conditions. That doesn't make them 'bad' - but highlights that those forms of energy have severe limitations that we need to understand and prepare for. For example, six coal plants were taken offline in the past decade, despite concerns that coal plants are some of the most reliable and secure (they and nuclear store their fuel onsite). Should we have maintained these in a reserve status for an emergency like this until additional reserve capacity is online?

If you want to lay fault... it's probably with developers promoting 'all electric' houses as 'green' - discounting the fact that resistance heat (electric) is far less efficient than natural gas.

Is it unusual for wind to be offline in the winter in Texas?

Wind is actually producing more than was forecast for this time of year.

COP HSL for Current Day Forecasted and Actual Wind Power Production

www.ercot.com

Are you suggesting that the state should force power wholesalers to build certain types of power plants? I thought we wanted the free market to decide?

 

[Tbird19482]

You're right. Ten years from now, there will still be Trumpers claiming it was the turbines.

And we can't just ship them away, huh?

Yet they have hundreds of them up off the east shore of lake Erie in and around the Buffalo NY area and they have no problems keeping them running in the winter and in the last 10 years they have had at least 4or 5 times when they got over 7 foot of snow ,
with winds and more.

So maybe the operators in TX should talk to the ones in the Buffalo area and find out what they do to keep them running
Have a nice day

 

[dcsports]

DC, thats seems like perfectly acceptable comment. The first problem is the typical lying conservative narrative is that its all wind power's fault. the numbers you have from 2017 are for total generation. Ercot only planned to have 7% wind for the winter peak

It’s estimated that of the grid’s total winter capacity, about 80% of it, or 67 gigawatts, could be generated by natural gas, coal and some nuclear power. Only 7% of ERCOT’s forecasted winter capacity, or 6 gigawatts, was expected to come from various wind power sources across the state.

No, frozen wind turbines aren’t to blame for Texas’ power outages | The Texas Tribune

The second problem is I dont it was key. Something tells me that "lack of gas" was the biggest driver of lost generation. Cold related outages of wind and fossil will be distant second.

Most of the generation that tripped offline Tuesday, primarily in Texas' ERCOT region, was caused by issues in the natural gas supply system, said Woodfin — several pipes and wellheads froze, leaving the plants fuel-constrained. This led to about half ERCOT's natural gas fleet and about 30% of its total capacity to come offline

FERC, NERC to investigate mass outages across ERCOT, SPP, MISO | Utility Dive

Woodfin is ERCOT senior director of system operations.

Again, no one is saying it's 'all wind power's fault'. That's a typical left wing strawman.

The concern is that so much of what we do have from wind capacity is offline. ERCOT not even planning to have full wind generation available doesn't help it's case from a reliability standpoint.

 

[ecofarm]

Yet they have hundreds of them up off the east shore of lake Erie in and around the Buffalo NY area and they have no problems keeping them running in the winter and in the last 10 years they have had at least 4or 5 times when they got over 7 foot of snow ,
with winds and more.

So maybe the operators in TX should talk to the ones in the Buffalo area and find out what they do to keep them running
Have a nice day

I lived in Sweden.

 

[dcsports]

You do realize there are methods to winterize windmills to prevent them from freezing? These have inherent costs to them, costs which the private company in Texas decided to forego. Winterizing fossil fuels have inherent cost as well. You can’t demonize any one power source because of this event, but the only reason we are having this discussion is as a reaction to the conservative media spin machine trying to deflect blame away from failed policies in Texas.

Again with the straw men. Who's demonizing wind? What this points to is the danger in relying on it without making allowances for it's instability.

Yes, they said that some of the windmills didn't have winterizing kits installed that would be up north. However, in this case, the big issue was the freezing rain, which coated the blades with ice, forcing a shut down to prevent damage from the excess weight.

 

[Torus34]

Texas? Texas? Can't be Texas. I listen to 'conservative' experts and they tell me it's only the cities run by Democrats that are mismanaged and found lacking when a problem arises.

Can't be Texas, dude! Somebody's feeding us fake news!

Regards, stay safe 'n well.

 

[dcsports]

Is it unusual for wind to be offline in the winter in Texas?

Wind is actually producing more than was forecast for this time of year.

COP HSL for Current Day Forecasted and Actual Wind Power Production

www.ercot.com

Are you suggesting that the state should force power wholesalers to build certain types of power plants? I thought we wanted the free market to decide?

In west Texas? Doubtful.

 

[dcsports]

Yet they have hundreds of them up off the east shore of lake Erie in and around the Buffalo NY area and they have no problems keeping them running in the winter and in the last 10 years they have had at least 4or 5 times when they got over 7 foot of snow ,
with winds and more.

So maybe the operators in TX should talk to the ones in the Buffalo area and find out what they do to keep them running
Have a nice day

They probably don't have the same issue with freezing rain in Michigan. Snow wouldn't have caused the same issue. I also bet that most homes don't use resistance heat, driving up demand for electricity in the winter.

 

[roughdraft274]

Yeah, it's absurd for Republican politicians to try to deflect by blaming wind turbines, when most of the problems are actually a result of natural gas lines freezing, as well as NG/coal power plants not being properly winterized.

And while I do not find anyone's suffering amusing, I do find it amusingly hypocritical that several big-name Texas Republican politicians attacked California's government for blackouts, but refuse to assign any blame or responsibility for these problems to Texas' mostly Republican government. It is really astounding how the partisan mind works sometimes.

It really is bizarre. I don't even understand the argument. Even if what they are saying is 100% true, that alot of the wind power is shut down because of a record breaking weather event, what does that entail? We shouldn't use wind power because some of them shut down in an insane weather event? I couldn't imagine arguing that because a natural gas pipeline shut down due to record breaking cold temps that therefor we need to stop using natural gas. It's just such a dishonest and stupid argument.

 

[roguenuke]

Yes, it's a key contributor. 1/3 of the offline power generating capacity lost.

And you are loosing the forest for the trees. It's only 1/3 of the lost capacity because it accounts for 15.7% of energy production (still the most of ANY state). Half of wind was offline, as opposed to something like 10% of non-wind. Do we continue to make ourselves more venerable by increasing the amount of reliance on wind, without planning for severe weather that can knock it out?

Increase reliance on other sources, like nuclear, while still having wind to take up some of the load when it is able. That is the goal. It doesn't mean you don't recognize that there is a need for more actual capacity than needed when building the nuclear plants, allowing for the nuclear to take on a lighter load, perhaps be timed for maintenance periods, while the load is expected to be able to be handled by the wind and solar farms. Another thing would be hooking up to the national network so that it is able to provide backup as well. Also, reinforce for unforeseen rather than what you think happens in your area. NC has snow plows that are almost never used but very much needed despite not getting snow but maybe once or twice a decade that could be a problem. However, it is much harder to get such things after the fact than before.

 

[PeteEU]

Actually, wind accounts for 15.7% of power in Texas, and 17.4% of the power used by ERCOT, which is where the issue is. (Some areas, including El Paso and parts of the panhandle, use a different power grid.) The state uses more wind energy as a percent than any other.

Wind power in Texas - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

.

There are 2 big issues at play. 1) the tremendous demand on electricity due to the weather - record breaking. The primary contributor is electric heat, which is the norm in apartments here (it's cheap and easy to install, and doesn't get used much). However, there have been a rising number of 'all electric' 'green' homes - discovering that the electricity isn't as efficient as gas in cold weather. 2) About 25 % of the generating capacity is offline. Wind is a big part of that - you can't run turbines in extreme cold, or when blades are coated with ice. Solar also doesn't work when panels are coated with freezing rain. True - there were other issues. A nuclear plant went off line. Some other plants ran into issue as well. Also several coal plants - normally very reliable for reserve capacity, have been decommissioned.

It's not 'wind's fault' - but to say it wasn't a key contributor is foolish. This highlights the need to understand the limitations of any technology.

It was not a key contribution...if a contribution at all as the power companies own numbers show that wind is producing more at the moment than it should.

 

[Clownonthewing]

They probably don't have the same issue with freezing rain in Michigan. Snow wouldn't have caused the same issue. I also bet that most homes don't use resistance heat, driving up demand for electricity in the winter.

Your first assertion is a complete fabrication. Your second statement is a red herring.

 

[BlueTex]

In west Texas? Doubtful.

Do you not believe ERCOT’s data?

 

[Vern]

Yes, it's a key contributor. 1/3 of the offline power generating capacity lost.

And you are loosing the forest for the trees. It's only 1/3 of the lost capacity because it accounts for 15.7% of energy production (still the most of ANY state). Half of wind was offline, as opposed to something like 10% of non-wind. Do we continue to make ourselves more venerable by increasing the amount of reliance on wind, without planning for severe weather that can knock it out?

oh DC, this hurts my feelings because you are pretending to ignore my post. Not only are you making up a number for "lost wind generation" you are ignoring Ercot telling you "This led to about half ERCOT's natural gas fleet and about 30% of its total capacity to come offline " I know, let me post another link

Failures across Texas’ natural gas operations and supply chains due to extreme temperatures are the most significant cause of the power crisis that has left millions of Texans without heat and electricity during the winter storm sweeping the U.S.

Texas power outage: Why natural gas went down during the winter storm | The Texas Tribune


and DC, you're not addressing the typical lying conservative narrative that only blames wind power. posting made up numbers doesnt change that.

 

[uptower]

Actually, wind accounts for 15.7% of power in Texas, and 17.4% of the power used by ERCOT, which is where the issue is. (Some areas, including El Paso and parts of the panhandle, use a different power grid.) The state uses more wind energy as a percent than any other.

Wind power in Texas - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

.

There are 2 big issues at play. 1) the tremendous demand on electricity due to the weather - record breaking. The primary contributor is electric heat, which is the norm in apartments here (it's cheap and easy to install, and doesn't get used much). However, there have been a rising number of 'all electric' 'green' homes - discovering that the electricity isn't as efficient as gas in cold weather. 2) About 25 % of the generating capacity is offline. Wind is a big part of that - you can't run turbines in extreme cold, or when blades are coated with ice. Solar also doesn't work when panels are coated with freezing rain. True - there were other issues. A nuclear plant went off line. Some other plants ran into issue as well. Also several coal plants - normally very reliable for reserve capacity, have been decommissioned.

It's not 'wind's fault' - but to say it wasn't a key contributor is foolish. This highlights the need to understand the limitations of any technology.

Yes, some shit was going to break down anyway in extreme weather - wind, gas, nuclear, oil, whatever. But focusing on wind when the state relies much more heavily on gas and has had much greater losses of output in the gas sector is just playing the blame game. As was some tool's suggestion it was the 'Green New Deal's fault, when to the best of my knowledge it hasn't even been implemented much less had time to take root.

the real problem is - regardless of the energy source - deregulation, poor maintenance and upkeep and basic neglect by the state authorities when it come to keeping teh gird secure and functioning. They can't blame that on wind.

 

[dcsports]

Your first assertion is a complete fabrication. Your second statement is a red herring.

Your comment is incorrect, and meaningless. Please let me know if you have a question, or something you would like to discuss.

 

[dcsports]

Do you not believe ERCOT’s data?

I responded citing it. so..... not sure what you are getting at.

 

[dcsports]

It really is bizarre. I don't even understand the argument. Even if what they are saying is 100% true, that alot of the wind power is shut down because of a record breaking weather event, what does that entail? We shouldn't use wind power because some of them shut down in an insane weather event? I couldn't imagine arguing that because a natural gas pipeline shut down due to record breaking cold temps that therefor we need to stop using natural gas. It's just such a dishonest and stupid argument.

I posted it above. The statement that started the thread is a strawman. No one is saying that 'it's all the fault of wind'. No one is saying we shouldn't use it.

The concern is that in this case that wind has proven to be not reliable in a weather condition when power is needed most. We lost half the wind capacity in this storm (and as of the last update, it was still 40%). We need to take this into consideration as we become more reliant on this form of energy.

Personally, I think part of the lesson is that we need to find a way to add some surge capacity - perhaps by maintaining some of the older plants in reserve instead of decommissioning them.

 

[AncientGeek]

Actually, wind accounts for 15.7% of power in Texas, and 17.4% of the power used by ERCOT, which is where the issue is. (Some areas, including El Paso and parts of the panhandle, use a different power grid.) The state uses more wind energy as a percent than any other.

Wind power in Texas - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

.

There are 2 big issues at play. 1) the tremendous demand on electricity due to the weather - record breaking. The primary contributor is electric heat, which is the norm in apartments here (it's cheap and easy to install, and doesn't get used much). However, there have been a rising number of 'all electric' 'green' homes - discovering that the electricity isn't as efficient as gas in cold weather. 2) About 25 % of the generating capacity is offline. Wind is a big part of that - you can't run turbines in extreme cold, or when blades are coated with ice. Solar also doesn't work when panels are coated with freezing rain. True - there were other issues. A nuclear plant went off line. Some other plants ran into issue as well. Also several coal plants - normally very reliable for reserve capacity, have been decommissioned.

It's not 'wind's fault' - but to say it wasn't a key contributor is foolish. This highlights the need to understand the limitations of any technology.

About 16% of Texas electricity is wind generated. About half of that capacity went offline because their turbines were not built for the cold. Does not happen in northern states because they put heaters in the turbines.
A lot of natural gas generators went offline for the same reason: not built to work in cold.
This highlights the need to build infrastructure for the more extreme weather we are causing.