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No Collusion/No Concession

Rexedgar

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Mycroft

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jnug

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Believe me...Chuck and Nancy got the message, even if you didn't.

Yea they got the message. The message is "PLEASE give me a trap door out of this mess. Give me anything that lets me declare victory 21 days from now. I will take anything at this point. Beaded curtain is actually starting to look good!" Trump has no leverage.
 

Mycroft

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Yea they got the message. The message is "PLEASE give me a trap door out of this mess. Give me anything that lets me declare victory 21 days from now. I will take anything at this point. Beaded curtain is actually starting to look good!" Trump has no leverage.

Trump's not asking for a trap door. He HAS a trap door...and they know it.

But Chuck and Nancy don't have a trap door. All they have are options that are bad. They'll have to decide which one to run with.
 

Chomsky

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Trump's not asking for a trap door. He HAS a trap door...and they know it.

But Chuck and Nancy don't have a trap door. All they have are options that are bad. They'll have to decide which one to run with.
I'm blown away that you can say this, after Trump just suffered such an overwhelming defeat at the hands of Pelosi & Schumer.

What, pray tell, do you base thus upon?
 

Praxas

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Trump's not asking for a trap door. He HAS a trap door...and they know it.

But Chuck and Nancy don't have a trap door. All they have are options that are bad. They'll have to decide which one to run with.

And at long last you admit that you live in a fantasy world and not reality. Trump got his ass handed to him.
 

lwf

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Trump's not asking for a trap door. He HAS a trap door...and they know it.

But Chuck and Nancy don't have a trap door. All they have are options that are bad. They'll have to decide which one to run with.

What is Trump's trap door?
 

Mycroft

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I'm blown away that you can say this, after Trump just suffered such an overwhelming defeat at the hands of Pelosi & Schumer.

What, pray tell, do you base thus upon?

What is Trump's trap door?

sigh...Do I HAVE to keep explaining this?

Nancy's options:

1. Make a deal that Trump will accept. If she does this, her supporters are pissed at her.

2. Don't make a deal. If she does this, it'll result in either HER closing down the government again or Trump declaring a national emergency and moving forward with his wall. Either option...someone is pissed at her.

That's the box she's in...and she has a deadline.

My prediction: She will go with option 1. She will try to get a good deal from Trump in return for giving him all the money he wants and she'll hope the media is successful in spinning it well enough to minimize the damage.

Trump's options:

1. Drop the whole border issue. Move on to something else. Out of the question. If he does this, he is toast.

2. Work out a deal with the Dems. He is open to this, but as we've seen, he's not afraid to walk away if he doesn't get the deal he wants. In any case, this will depend on the Dems.

3. (The trap door) Stop dealing with Congress. Declare a national emergency. Move immediately to enhancing border security.​

BUT!!!, you say...THE COURTS!!

Okay...what will be the grounds of a suit?

1. "He doesn't have the power to declare a national emergency." Nonsense. Not only has he already done this, he has extended national emergencies that other Presidents have declared.

2. "Landowners...eminent domain." A waste of time. According to the law, protections for landowners are waived as long as the emergency is in effect.

3. I'm sure there are a multitude of frivolous reasons people will use. They won't work. And the courts will start to get pissed off at the people who bring them.​

Now...I'm sure there are smart people out there reading this who might think of something I haven't. I would love to hear what they have to say. But if all you have is "Trump is a poopy-head" rhetoric, don't waste my time. (I don't care if you waste your own time)
 

lwf

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sigh...Do I HAVE to keep explaining this?

Nancy's options:

1. Make a deal that Trump will accept. If she does this, her supporters are pissed at her.

2. Don't make a deal. If she does this, it'll result in either HER closing down the government again or Trump declaring a national emergency and moving forward with his wall. Either option...someone is pissed at her.

That's the box she's in...and she has a deadline.

My prediction: She will go with option 1. She will try to get a good deal from Trump in return for giving him all the money he wants and she'll hope the media is successful in spinning it well enough to minimize the damage.

Once Congress passes a spending bill, then the only person with the power to shut the government down is the president. If Congress does not pass a spending bill, you're right that Congress takes the blame for the shutdown. Once they do, however, it is the president who is now on the hook for whether or not to accept the compromise and keep the government open. Do you agree with this? Negotiations cannot take place when one party is threatening innocent people. The "offer she can't refuse" tactic is not going to work as long as Nancy can get a bill she's happy with past the House. Once that happens, Republicans absolutely HAVE TO avoid any possible blame for another shutdown if they want to stand any chance in 2020, therefore the Senate will send that sucker right up the chain. My prediction: there will be a spending bill on President Trump's desk before the deadline. At that point, Trump will once again own whatever happens.

Trump's options:

1. Drop the whole border issue. Move on to something else. Out of the question. If he does this, he is toast.

2. Work out a deal with the Dems. He is open to this, but as we've seen, he's not afraid to walk away if he doesn't get the deal he wants. In any case, this will depend on the Dems.

3. (The trap door) Stop dealing with Congress. Declare a national emergency. Move immediately to enhancing border security.​

BUT!!!, you say...THE COURTS!!

Okay...what will be the grounds of a suit?

1. "He doesn't have the power to declare a national emergency." Nonsense. Not only has he already done this, he has extended national emergencies that other Presidents have declared.

2. "Landowners...eminent domain." A waste of time. According to the law, protections for landowners are waived as long as the emergency is in effect.

3. I'm sure there are a multitude of frivolous reasons people will use. They won't work. And the courts will start to get pissed off at the people who bring them.​

Now...I'm sure there are smart people out there reading this who might think of something I haven't. I would love to hear what they have to say. But if all you have is "Trump is a poopy-head" rhetoric, don't waste my time. (I don't care if you waste your own time)

The real reason the courts will instantly spike it is that declaring a national emergency where none exists is an abuse of power. Even conservative judges don't want to set that precedent.

Think if it this way: If a national emergency exists at the border, then it has existed there for the past 50 years and is, in fact, far less dire of an emergency now than it was 20 years ago, yes? If Trump was aware of this national emergency that no other president seems to have been aware of, why didn't he declare it as soon as he took office? Why did he wait two years before deciding to do something about it? Was he incompetent in not declaring a national emergency during an ongoing humanitarian crisis, or is he all of a sudden fabricating a national emergency in order to seize funding for a personal project?

A national emergency declaration would be political suicide for Trump. It is a false "trump card." He's bluffing. That's why he's been so vocal about having that power for the past two years. He knows that if he plays it he still doesn't get his money and endures another humiliating political defeat that will likely result in him kissing a 2020 run goodbye.

Nope. Trump will immediately sign whatever bill lands on his desk and spin it to his base that it's somehow a 'win.' He'll say a few million for fence repair = 'wall.'
 

lwf

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Duplicate post
 
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Chomsky

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sigh...Do I HAVE to keep explaining this?

Nancy's options:

1. Make a deal that Trump will accept. If she does this, her supporters are pissed at her.

2. Don't make a deal. If she does this, it'll result in either HER closing down the government again or Trump declaring a national emergency and moving forward with his wall. Either option...someone is pissed at her.

That's the box she's in...and she has a deadline.

My prediction: She will go with option 1. She will try to get a good deal from Trump in return for giving him all the money he wants and she'll hope the media is successful in spinning it well enough to minimize the damage.

Trump's options:

1. Drop the whole border issue. Move on to something else. Out of the question. If he does this, he is toast.

2. Work out a deal with the Dems. He is open to this, but as we've seen, he's not afraid to walk away if he doesn't get the deal he wants. In any case, this will depend on the Dems.

3. (The trap door) Stop dealing with Congress. Declare a national emergency. Move immediately to enhancing border security.​

BUT!!!, you say...THE COURTS!!

Okay...what will be the grounds of a suit?

1. "He doesn't have the power to declare a national emergency." Nonsense. Not only has he already done this, he has extended national emergencies that other Presidents have declared.

2. "Landowners...eminent domain." A waste of time. According to the law, protections for landowners are waived as long as the emergency is in effect.

3. I'm sure there are a multitude of frivolous reasons people will use. They won't work. And the courts will start to get pissed off at the people who bring them.​

Now...I'm sure there are smart people out there reading this who might think of something I haven't. I would love to hear what they have to say. But if all you have is "Trump is a poopy-head" rhetoric, don't waste my time. (I don't care if you waste your own time)
I appreciate your putting a lot of time & effort into laying-down the rationale for your conclusion, but I just don't see it.

Trump is exactly back where he was 35 days ago, stymied & looking at having to try to declare a national emergency, only now he's a solid 6-8 points lower in the polls, while the Dems & Pelosi have strongly unified and greatly increased their political capital and positive public perception.

So I see Trump's actions as a major political blunder. Also, I don't agree with your legal assessment.
 

Mycroft

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I appreciate your putting a lot of time & effort into laying-down the rationale for your conclusion, but I just don't see it.

Trump is exactly back where he was 35 days ago, stymied & looking at having to try to declare a national emergency, only now he's a solid 6-8 points lower in the polls, while the Dems & Pelosi have strongly unified and greatly increased their political capital and positive public perception.

So I see Trump's actions as a major political blunder. Also, I don't agree with your legal assessment.

Actually, Trump is not where he was 35 days ago. He is on record as trying to go the legislative route. Congress is on record as being nothing more than oppositional. Congress has forced him to take the step of declaring a national emergency to deal with the crisis.

If Trump had declared a national emergency 35 days ago, he would have been pilloried for daring to bypass Congress. Doing THAT would have been a political blunder.

If you disagree with my legal assessment, present your own. I'd be interested in hearing it.
 

Chomsky

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Actually, Trump is not where he was 35 days ago. He is on record as trying to go the legislative route. Congress is on record as being nothing more than oppositional. Congress has forced him to take the step of declaring a national emergency to deal with the crisis.

If Trump had declared a national emergency 35 days ago, he would have been pilloried for daring to bypass Congress. Doing THAT would have been a political blunder.
Political blunders do not constitute military emergencies. If it was a legit emergency, by definition it needed to be addressed immediately. He didn't do that.

Q.E.D.

If you disagree with my legal assessment, present your own. I'd be interested in hearing it.
Illegal southern border crossings are down drastically from 2000, to less than 25% of what they were. And Trump has had two years to declare an emergency, including the last 5 months since his 2018 (caravan based) election run-up hysteria propaganda.

Due to the above, I believe he will have a hard time making the "emergency" case to the courts.
 

Mach

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Hello, I’d like to report a fire............
Yep.

Starts a raging fire.
Hello, I'd like to report a fire...no ma'am, no idea how it started. Probably democrats.

“....off to the races?”
Pure lunacy. This guy.
 

Mycroft

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Once Congress passes a spending bill, then the only person with the power to shut the government down is the president. If Congress does not pass a spending bill, you're right that Congress takes the blame for the shutdown. Once they do, however, it is the president who is now on the hook for whether or not to accept the compromise and keep the government open. Do you agree with this? Negotiations cannot take place when one party is threatening innocent people. The "offer she can't refuse" tactic is not going to work as long as Nancy can get a bill she's happy with past the House. Once that happens, Republicans absolutely HAVE TO avoid any possible blame for another shutdown if they want to stand any chance in 2020, therefore the Senate will send that sucker right up the chain. My prediction: there will be a spending bill on President Trump's desk before the deadline. At that point, Trump will once again own whatever happens.

I'm not going to keep repeating myself. For a response to the parts of your post that I've snipped, look elsewhere in this thread and in other related threads.

I'm glad you are placing the blame to our last shutdown where it belongs: With Congress. btw, Congress includes both Dems and Reps.

Now, I have to ask you...given the actions since last December, what makes you think Congress will put a bill on Trump's desk? What has changed? What prevented Congress from putting a bill on Trump's desk at any time in the last month?

Has Nancy come out and said she'll start negotiating? Has she actually STARTED negotiating?

Seems to me your prediction is based on nothing at all.

btw, whether Nancy negotiates or not, there won't be another shutdown. You can take that to the bank.
 

lwf

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I'm not going to keep repeating myself. For a response to the parts of your post that I've snipped, look elsewhere in this thread and in other related threads.

I'm glad you are placing the blame to our last shutdown where it belongs: With Congress. btw, Congress includes both Dems and Reps.

Now, I have to ask you...given the actions since last December, what makes you think Congress will put a bill on Trump's desk? What has changed? What prevented Congress from putting a bill on Trump's desk at any time in the last month?

Has Nancy come out and said she'll start negotiating? Has she actually STARTED negotiating?

Seems to me your prediction is based on nothing at all.

btw, whether Nancy negotiates or not, there won't be another shutdown. You can take that to the bank.

I think Congress will put a bill on Trump's desk because Republicans took a beating on the last shutdown. Yes, both sides took a beating, but I think Republicans got the worst of it and can't afford to take any more of the blame. Republican senators were already starting to turn on Trump before he wisely decided to reopen the government. I believe the House will pass a bill along to the Senate in short order with generous border security money with NONE of it allocated for the wall, and the Senate will grudgingly pass it to avoid taking blame for another shutdown, leaving it in Trump's hands. I don't think he will have the stones to veto it.

And I agree with your prediction that there will not be another shutdown.
 

Mycroft

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Political blunders do not constitute military emergencies. If it was a legit emergency, by definition it needed to be addressed immediately. He didn't do that.

Q.E.D.

Who has said anything about "military emergencies"?

Illegal southern border crossings are down drastically from 2000, to less than 25% of what they were. And Trump has had two years to declare an emergency, including the last 5 months since his 2018 (caravan based) election run-up hysteria propaganda.

Due to the above, I believe he will have a hard time making the "emergency" case to the courts.

Given the law and the assumption that Trump will comply with the law, I seriously doubt any court will accept a case that objects to Trump's declaration of a national emergency on the basis of whether it's an emergency or not. By complying with the law, Trump HAS to give his justification to Congress. Then it's up to Congress to either stop him if they disagree or not try to stop him.

So tell me...who do you think would have standing to bring suit based on a disagreement that there is an emergency?
 

Yakshi

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I'm blown away that you can say this, after Trump just suffered such an overwhelming defeat at the hands of Pelosi & Schumer.

What, pray tell, do you base thus upon?

The power of delusion.
 

Mycroft

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I think Congress will put a bill on Trump's desk because Republicans took a beating on the last shutdown. Yes, both sides took a beating, but I think Republicans got the worst of it and can't afford to take any more of the blame. Republican senators were already starting to turn on Trump before he wisely decided to reopen the government. I believe the House will pass a bill along to the Senate in short order with generous border security money with NONE of it allocated for the wall, and the Senate will grudgingly pass it to avoid taking blame for another shutdown, leaving it in Trump's hands. I don't think he will have the stones to veto it.

And I agree with your prediction that there will not be another shutdown.

I don't think such a bill will get past McConnel.
 

Chomsky

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I think Congress will put a bill on Trump's desk because Republicans took a beating on the last shutdown. Yes, both sides took a beating, but I think Republicans got the worst of it and can't afford to take any more of the blame. Republican senators were already starting to turn on Trump before he wisely decided to reopen the government. I believe the House will pass a bill along to the Senate in short order with generous border security money with NONE of it allocated for the wall, and the Senate will grudgingly pass it to avoid taking blame for another shutdown, leaving it in Trump's hands. I don't think he will have the stones to veto it.

And I agree with your prediction that there will not be another shutdown.
To the bolded:

He won't veto it. He'll sign whatever he gets, and declare an emergency if the bill cannot give him plausible material to spin a web of deceit for his base.
 

<alt>doxygen

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I don't think such a bill will get past McConnel.

McConnell will probably continue to try to protect Trump, but once the 2020 cycle nears that may change. The "we can't do anything that will anger Trump's base" factor may recede, but that remains to be seen.

Coulter already turned on Trump. Hannity didn't. Limbaugh? In 3 weeks if there's no WALL money, some interesting things may happen. I don't know if Trump's base will hold.
 
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