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No bounce in support for Trump as Americans see pandemic, not crime, as top issue: poll

JacksinPA

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No bounce in support for Trump as Americans see pandemic, not crime, as top issue: Reuters/Ipsos poll - Reuters

NEW YORK (Reuters) - President Donald Trump’s attempt to make civil unrest a central theme of his re-election campaign has yet to boost his political standing, as most Americans do not see crime as a major problem confronting the nation and a majority remain sympathetic to anti-racism protests, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Wednesday.

The Aug. 31-Sept. 1 national opinion poll showed that 40% of registered voters support Trump, a Republican, compared with 47% who said they will vote for his Democratic opponent Joe Biden. Biden’s lead is largely unchanged over the past three weeks during which both parties held conventions to nominate their candidates Trump and Biden for the presidency.

Trailing Biden in most national opinion polls since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus this year, Trump has sought to change the subject from a pandemic that has killed more than 180,000 Americans, blaming Black Lives Matters protesters for violence in the cities and accusing Biden of being weak on crime.
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I think this topic shift is a bridge too far. Most Americans are more concerned about the virus than they are Black Lives Matter. Trump has shifted away from the virus, even giving up his daily briefs.
 
Of the top concerns Americans have, crime is actually in fifth place (4%), behind race relations (10%), economic problems (12%), poor government leadership (22%), and the coronavirus 35%. Trump's attempt to put crime front and center was red meat for his base, but it was a terrible read on what is actually important to people.

Most Important Problem | Gallup Historical Trends
 
Today's FiveThirtyEight is at odds with the topic headline.

Ref: How Popular Is Donald Trump? | FiveThirtyEight

Regards, stay safe 'n well. Remember the Big 3: masks, hand washing and physical distancing.

Yes and no.

"Bunch more national polls in, a pretty good batch for Biden.

YouGov has Biden back up to +11 after having fallen to +6 post-RNC

IBD/TIPP (live caller) has Biden +8 (RV)

Rasmussen has Biden +4 which is more like 7/8 with their house effect.

If you look carefully at the dates here, especially for YouGov and Morning Consult which have polled after the RNC twice, can start to make the case that Trump got a little bounce that's already receding a bit."

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1301194969525506048
 
Yes and no.

"Bunch more national polls in, a pretty good batch for Biden.

YouGov has Biden back up to +11 after having fallen to +6 post-RNC

IBD/TIPP (live caller) has Biden +8 (RV)

Rasmussen has Biden +4 which is more like 7/8 with their house effect.

If you look carefully at the dates here, especially for YouGov and Morning Consult which have polled after the RNC twice, can start to make the case that Trump got a little bounce that's already receding a bit."

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1301194969525506048

Hi!

I've made the FiveThirtyEight compiled poll chart a daily pit stop. If we assume, and it's an admittedly risky assumption, that any individual poll is randomly, not systematically flawed, then the sigma, using the hoary old Studentized t distribution, reduces by the square root of n. [Ed.: Averaging data reduces the uncertainty of the estimated average as the number of pieces of data increases.]

Regards, stay safe 'n well.
 
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