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NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

BDBoop

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NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath - Newsweek

As Democrats prepare for considerable losses in the November elections, there’s reason to believe the party in power may not be headed for the bloodbath it might expect. According to a new NEWSWEEK Poll, President Obama’s approval rating—47 percent—indicates that the party is better off this year than Republicans were in 2006, when the GOP lost 30 House seats, and than the Democrats were in 1994, when they lost 52 House seats.

Actual poll results

http://nw-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/pdf/1004-ftop.pdf
 

Deuce

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Eh, I'm not so sure presidential approval ratings correlate very strongly to house and senate election results. That said, I do think the right-wingers are going to be disappointed at their results this November. They've got themselves all fired up and expecting a landslide.
 

Kandahar

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NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath - Newsweek

As Democrats prepare for considerable losses in the November elections, there’s reason to believe the party in power may not be headed for the bloodbath it might expect. According to a new NEWSWEEK Poll, President Obama’s approval rating—47 percent—indicates that the party is better off this year than Republicans were in 2006, when the GOP lost 30 House seats, and than the Democrats were in 1994, when they lost 52 House seats.
Yes, but the Democrats are coming off two back-to-back landslide elections in 2006 and 2008. That means that they currently hold more marginal seats than the Republicans did in 2006, or the Democrats did in 1994. Even if voters were evenly split in their preference for Democrats or Republicans, that would translate into substantial losses for the Democrats.

Also, as Deuce said, I think the correlation between the president's approval ratings and his party's congressional result is weak-to-medium, at best.

I hope that the Democrats don't lose too many seats in November, but if they do I won't be too terribly disappointed. Health care reform has already passed, and that victory alone is more than worth a drubbing in the polls in 2010.
 

danarhea

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There is something missing from the poll - How much the base is energized for each party. The GOP base is revved up, but the Democrat base is, for the most part, apathetic. This translates into more votes for Republicans. Now, while I don't expect the GOP to actually take back either house, I do expect them to make substantial gains in both. This will be because Democrats have not seen Obama live up to the promises he made while campaigning. Many see him as Bush Lite, and as a result, you can expect many to stay away from the polls this year.
 

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NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath - Newsweek

As Democrats prepare for considerable losses in the November elections, there’s reason to believe the party in power may not be headed for the bloodbath it might expect. According to a new NEWSWEEK Poll, President Obama’s approval rating—47 percent—indicates that the party is better off this year than Republicans were in 2006, when the GOP lost 30 House seats, and than the Democrats were in 1994, when they lost 52 House seats.

Actual poll results

http://nw-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/pdf/1004-ftop.pdf

didn't Meechum just sell that loser rag for $1 recently?......:lmao


j-mac
 

Erod

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Health care reform has already passed, and that victory alone is more than worth a drubbing in the polls in 2010.
Undoing that will be Job #1 for the next president.
 

damianvincent

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NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath - Newsweek

As Democrats prepare for considerable losses in the November elections, there’s reason to believe the party in power may not be headed for the bloodbath it might expect. According to a new NEWSWEEK Poll, President Obama’s approval rating—47 percent—indicates that the party is better off this year than Republicans were in 2006, when the GOP lost 30 House seats, and than the Democrats were in 1994, when they lost 52 House seats.

Actual poll results

http://nw-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/pdf/1004-ftop.pdf
Eh, Newsweek polls are notoriously inaccurate. Rasmussen is the polling firm I trust, as through the past 3 election cycles, they've been the most accurate on election day. Take a look at these numbers, they certainly suggest something quite different...


________________________________________________________________

58% Favor Repeal of the Health Care Law, 36% Are Opposed
________________________________________________________________

Voters Now Trust Republicans More On All 10 Key Issues

Education 40% 41%

Health Care 40% 48%

Iraq 40% 43%

Economy 39% 47%

Social Security 38% 44%

Government Ethics 38% 40%

National Security 37% 49%

Afghanistan 36% 43%

Taxes 36% 52%

Immigration 35% 44%
______________________________________________________________

Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 47%, Democrats 38%
________________________________________________________________

16% Say Congress Doing A Good or Excellent Job; 56% Say Poor

Rasmussen Reports™: The Most Comprehensive Public Opinion Data Anywhere
 
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FilmFestGuy

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In general, I don't trust generic ballot polls (would you vote Republican or Democrat) because people have a tendency to view their own representative differently than the party as a whole.

Cook Political Report has 40 seats in "toss-up" (largely Democrats) and an additional 36 leaning (again, largely Democratic).

For instance, a guy named Mike Ross, D-AR is in a district rated R+7 (meaning largely Republican) and he considered likely to be safe as a Democrat.

Additionally, since this is nation-wide polling, it's also including those people in districts that are simply never going to change party because of gerrymandering.

You really have to focus on the 40 or so seats that are actually at risk to see what's going to happen.

Republicans are going to make gains, for sure. I still don't think they'll take a majority, though. If they do, it will be relatively slim.

Honestly, I've reached the point of not really caring which party is in control. I just want actual governing to occur. And by governing - I mean serving all Americans, even those you disagree with. Both parties have become victims of over-estimating their political capital.

Sadly, if Republicans take control, I fear that they will merely continue this trend.

Everyone - from Bush to Delay to Cheney to Obama to Pelosi to Reid keep thinking they have a "mandate" when they win.

From now on, I want my leaders to realize, that unless they won like 80 - 90% of the vote, they've not been given a mandate to do anything. They've been given permission to represent their community - and usually by a slim to moderate margin.
 

FilmFestGuy

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Eh, Newsweek polls are notoriously inaccurate. Rasmussen is the polling firm I trust, as through the past 3 election cycles, they've been the most accurate on election day. Take a look at these numbers, they certainly suggest something quite different...


________________________________________________________________

58% Favor Repeal of the Health Care Law, 36% Are Opposed
________________________________________________________________

Voters Now Trust Republicans More On All 10 Key Issues

Education 40% 41%

Health Care 40% 48%

Iraq 40% 43%

Economy 39% 47%

Social Security 38% 44%

Government Ethics 38% 40%

National Security 37% 49%

Afghanistan 36% 43%

Taxes 36% 52%

Immigration 35% 44%
______________________________________________________________

Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 47%, Democrats 38%
________________________________________________________________

16% Say Congress Doing A Good or Excellent Job; 56% Say Poor

Rasmussen Reports™: The Most Comprehensive Public Opinion Data Anywhere
Just four short years ago, people thought exactly the opposite.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/21/us/politics/21poll.html

So, see my above post.
 

damianvincent

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In general, I don't trust generic ballot polls (would you vote Republican or Democrat) because people have a tendency to view their own representative differently than the party as a whole.

Cook Political Report has 40 seats in "toss-up" (largely Democrats) and an additional 36 leaning (again, largely Democratic).

For instance, a guy named Mike Ross, D-AR is in a district rated R+7 (meaning largely Republican) and he considered likely to be safe as a Democrat.

Additionally, since this is nation-wide polling, it's also including those people in districts that are simply never going to change party because of gerrymandering.

You really have to focus on the 40 or so seats that are actually at risk to see what's going to happen.

Republicans are going to make gains, for sure. I still don't think they'll take a majority, though. If they do, it will be relatively slim.

Honestly, I've reached the point of not really caring which party is in control. I just want actual governing to occur. And by governing - I mean serving all Americans, even those you disagree with. Both parties have become victims of over-estimating their political capital.

Sadly, if Republicans take control, I fear that they will merely continue this trend.

Everyone - from Bush to Delay to Cheney to Obama to Pelosi to Reid keep thinking they have a "mandate" when they win.

From now on, I want my leaders to realize, that unless they won like 80 - 90% of the vote, they've not been given a mandate to do anything. They've been given permission to represent their community - and usually by a slim to moderate margin.
I agree that the generic ballot is'nt as accurate as district by district polling, the point of my post was that the numbers in general look pretty dismal for the Democrats.

Real Clear Politics, which averages all the polls, has the Republicans gaining at least 7 of 10 seats in the Senate, and has at least 31 house seats leaning/likely GOP gains, that would mean that the GOP only has to win 10 of the 34 toss up races, a feat pretty likely in this enviroment.
 

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Undoing that will be Job #1 for the next president.
That would mean that Republicans would have to have A) a majority in the House in 2013, B) a 60-seat supermajority in the Senate in 2013, and C) the White House in 2013.

It's not going to happen, even if the Democrats take a thumpin' in the polls this year. Dream on.
 
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Dav

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IMO, anyone who honestly thinks that the Democrats won't lose the House in November are deluding themselves at this point.

That would mean that Republicans would have to have A) a majority in the House in 2013, B) a 60-seat supermajority in the Senate in 2013, and C) the White House in 2013.

It's not going to happen, even if the Democrats take a thumpin' in the polls this year. Dream on.
At least to begin with, all they have to do is not vote to fund it.
 

BDBoop

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HA! You got two if you're lucky and he doesn't get impeached before that.


j-mac
Impeached on what basis? I swear, if Clinton and Bush can weather all the **** they pulled, Obama will be just fine.
 

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Impeached on what basis? I swear, if Clinton and Bush can weather all the **** they pulled, Obama will be just fine.
I would agree. I don't see anyone who could be considered a legitmate threat to Obama in 2012. Regardless of what happens in 2010.
 

VanceMack

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There are some variables that make this very uncertain...already mentioned in some cases.

1-Will the Tea Party actually detract from republican support (if a tea party condidate loses and its the same ol republicans running, will people bother to vote-will defeated candidates run for office as independents and split the conservative vote)
2-There was a swell and excitement with minority voters and youth voters to both be rid of Bush and to elect the first black president. Can the democrats do anything to inspire those folks to vote.
3-Will those that already voted for democrats be upset because they arent seeing all those hopeful changes in their lives.

If I was a betting man...and I am but not on things I have no control over...but Id say at the end of the day the dems will have a 54/46 majority in the senate and will likely keep the house by 3-4 seats.
 

Redress

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There are some variables that make this very uncertain...already mentioned in some cases.

1-Will the Tea Party actually detract from republican support (if a tea party condidate loses and its the same ol republicans running, will people bother to vote-will defeated candidates run for office as independents and split the conservative vote)
2-There was a swell and excitement with minority voters and youth voters to both be rid of Bush and to elect the first black president. Can the democrats do anything to inspire those folks to vote.
3-Will those that already voted for democrats be upset because they arent seeing all those hopeful changes in their lives.

If I was a betting man...and I am but not on things I have no control over...but Id say at the end of the day the dems will have a 54/46 majority in the senate and will likely keep the house by 3-4 seats.
That right there is a pretty good post. I agree with your senate prediction, and I think the house is still way too close to call, and could swing about 10 seats either way. More if something significant happens between now and then.
 

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There are some variables that make this very uncertain...already mentioned in some cases.

1-Will the Tea Party actually detract from republican support (if a tea party condidate loses and its the same ol republicans running, will people bother to vote-will defeated candidates run for office as independents and split the conservative vote)
Especially agreed on your #1 point. I think it sucks that the Republican and Tea Partiers are practically interchangeable. It would be awesome if the entire apple cart spilled, and we then had a fighting shot at getting anything done.

I don't think any of us have the slightest idea of how to possibly make that happen.
 

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2-There was a swell and excitement with minority voters and youth voters to both be rid of Bush and to elect the first black president. Can the democrats do anything to inspire those folks to vote.
Honestly it was the free coffee from Starbucks. Vote and get a free cup. We have seven I believe here on campus.
 

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1. as a very close watcher of all polls for a very long time i can tell you with no partisan spin that newsweek, which doesn't poll very often, is routinely rather an outlier

2. rasmussen has been the most accurate pollster in the nation since 04---in 04, 06 and 08 scott, the founder of espn, nailed it

3. i can give you the links, i can give you the fordham university study that confirms (it's all empirics, after all, pure numbers) rasmussen #1

4. i can also tell you that it is a common knowledge that for whatever reasons republicans always do better at the polls than they do in their generics, by about 3%, says the common wisdom

5. that is, all my seemingly endless life democrats have held this apparently inherent generic lead over the party i'm such a reluctant member of, even in years that hold a november which turns out to be pretty solidly red

6. it's probably, in my opinion, because so many pollsters question registered voters instead of likely voters, and gop demographics tend to contribute to higher turnouts

7. rasmussen, for instance, asks only likely voters, it's what separates him from the rest, most notably gallup which stubbornly sticks to its surveys of all those who've motor-voter reg'd, or whatever

8. gallup today stunningly has reds up generically by +10, by far the highest for the party of lincoln in the 68 year history of our most prestigious pollster

Tidal wave? 10-point poll edge for GOP - Jonathan Allen and Richard E. Cohen - POLITICO.com

9. before barack, the highest gop margin was +5 in 02, that record shattered in george's reckonings the last 3 weeks straight, +6, +7, +10

10. of course the president's popularity or un- has great impact on ballots

11. independents are breaking in record numbers one way

12. seniors ALWAYS VOTE, seniors run this country, seniors have all the money, they're motivated and they know what's going on

13. in offyears, the influence of the elderly is greatly increased

14. they are breaking hugely away

15. the youth vote is notoriously unreliable and their hero, now far fallen, is not directly in front of them in this offyear

16. african americans, i'm sorry to say, turn out fewer in offyears

17. offyears generally are about the most dedicated voters

18. the enthusiasm gap, last i saw, was over 20

19. the gop will generally run candidates amenable to tea and the beck crowd will in most cases rally behind her or him who gives them the best chance to stonewall barry, witness scott brown in teddy kennedy's seat

20. the house, naturally, is far harder to forecast than the gubs and the senate

21. in upper parliament, +6 appears in the bag---delaware, pennsylvania, indiana, north dakota, colorado and arkansas

RealClearPolitics - 2010 Election Maps - Senate No Toss Ups

22. meek's win in florida almost surely gives sunshine to rubio, the cuban tea drinker has lurched to a 10 point lead since the primary

23. reds require 10 pickups to take upstairs

24. they would need---harry reid (7), patty murray (8), russ feingold (9), alex giannoulias in obama/burris' bench (10), bitchy barbara boxer (11), richard blumenthal in biden's seat (12), governor manchin in bobby kkk byrd's west virginia chair (13)

25. that's not as tall an order as it appears---since his primary win dino rossi opened a 7 point lead in washington, ron johnson in wisconsin poked ahead of feingold by a point

26. and i can tell you that ms boxer who mustn't be called that is more vulnerable out here in fruits-and-nuts land than she's ever been, by far

27. manchin has lost exactly 11 points since just last saturday's primary, down to a 7 point advantage

28. in the house, rcp has moved 15 seats to the gop in the last 3 weeks or so, which is very unusual, rcp's house numbers usually freeze

29. today rcp has reds gaining 51 positions, giving opposition a 12 seat plurality on pelosi's cheap carpet

RealClearPolitics - 2010 Election Maps - Battle for the House

30. i would very much look at voter turnout as thus far demonstrated---those aren't polls, those are hard and real data

31. in michigan reds outpolled blues in the wolverine primary, 2 to 1

32. in arizona, where house dems are really in big trouble, republicans also doubled dem ballots

33. in florida (you all know how indicative chad country can be), turnout was 1.6 to 1 red

34. in missouri, which has picked the president more often and more accurately than any state, the most bellwether commonwealth in the country, which also had measure c on its ballot, refusing to accept obamacare's individual mandate (it passed, 71 to 29), red voters outnumbered their counterparts, 1.6 to 1

35. in usually reliably blue washington, which has a blanket primary, putting all candidates regardless of affiliation on the same ballot---analysts look to the evergreens the way they used to see maine before 1958---reds outvoted dems by a very small margin, about 1.1 or 1.2 to 1

36. house dems from washington are also rather famously in particular danger

37. charlie cook is an insider's stud, when he talks THEY really listen

38. ten days ago he made statements that msm headlines interpreted: cook sees gop romp

Political Prognosticator Sees a Republican House - WSJ.com

39. the analyst's actual words are quite a bit more measured than "romp," but if you parse them...

40. anyway, I SAW with my own eyes the insider's reaction to cook's recipe---that's when the pessimism really hit, leadership, membership...

41. finally, the governorships---there's way too much data to go over right now, but suffice it to say, reds are in a significantly stronger position in the capitols than they are in either the senate or the house

RealClearPolitics - 2010 Election Maps - Governor No Toss Ups

42. and i'm going to take for granted that you all appreciate the powerful part governorships play in presidentials

fyi

party on!
 
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There is something missing from the poll - How much the base is energized for each party. The GOP base is revved up, but the Democrat base is, for the most part, apathetic.
Revved up, but seemingly directionless, and deeply divided.
The fringe-element extremists seem to have become the mouthpieces for the party; I can only assume there's a large silenced majority of moderate Republicans who resent having their party hijacked in this manner.
 

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NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath - Newsweek

As Democrats prepare for considerable losses in the November elections, there’s reason to believe the party in power may not be headed for the bloodbath it might expect. According to a new NEWSWEEK Poll, President Obama’s approval rating—47 percent—indicates that the party is better off this year than Republicans were in 2006, when the GOP lost 30 House seats, and than the Democrats were in 1994, when they lost 52 House seats.

Actual poll results

http://nw-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/pdf/1004-ftop.pdf
president Obama, eh? how do Congressional Republicans look? :)


Republicans lead by 51% to 41% among registered voters in Gallup weekly tracking of 2010 congressional voting preferences. The 10-percentage-point lead is the GOP's largest so far this year and is its largest in Gallup's history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress...

The Republican leads of 6, 7, and 10 points this month are all higher than any previous midterm Republican advantage in Gallup's history of tracking the generic ballot, which dates to 1942. Prior to this year, the highest such gap was five points, measured in June 2002 and July 1994. Elections in both of these years resulted in significant Republican gains in House seats...

Republicans are now twice as likely as Democrats to be "very" enthusiastic about voting, and now hold -- by one point -- the largest such advantage of the year.

Enthusiasm About Voting in 2010 Congressional Elections by Party, Weekly Averages: % Very Enthusiastic, Among Registered Voters


...The last Gallup weekly generic ballot average before Labor Day underscores the fast-evolving conventional wisdom that the GOP is poised to make significant gains in this fall's midterm congressional elections. Gallup's generic ballot has historically proven an excellent predictor of the national vote for Congress, and the national vote in turn is an excellent predictor of House seats won and lost. Republicans' presumed turnout advantage, combined with their current 10-point registered-voter lead, suggests the potential for a major "wave" election in which the Republicans gain a large number of seats from the Democrats and in the process take back control of the House...
 

damianvincent

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There are some variables that make this very uncertain...already mentioned in some cases.

1-Will the Tea Party actually detract from republican support (if a tea party condidate loses and its the same ol republicans running, will people bother to vote-will defeated candidates run for office as independents and split the conservative vote)
2-There was a swell and excitement with minority voters and youth voters to both be rid of Bush and to elect the first black president. Can the democrats do anything to inspire those folks to vote.
3-Will those that already voted for democrats be upset because they arent seeing all those hopeful changes in their lives.

If I was a betting man...and I am but not on things I have no control over...but Id say at the end of the day the dems will have a 54/46 majority in the senate and will likely keep the house by 3-4 seats.
For that to happen the GOP would have to lose 2 of the Senate seats they now currently lead in, and that's assuming the Dems keep Feigngold's, Reid's, Murray, all of which only lead by 1.something. That would wind up being some pretty good fortune for the Dems going forward. As far as the house is concerned I feel your way off, the GOP only needs 10 of 35 toss ups almost all of which are Dem seats.

I mean for the Dems to hold the House they have to win over 2/3 the toss up seats, in this election cycle, I just don't see it happening.
 
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