New York’s true nursing home death toll cloaked in secrecy

[eman623]

Wow. Cuomo's order caused maybe 11,000 nursing home deaths - almost half of whom weren't counted as such because the sick elderly patients died in a hosptial instead of the home where they were infected by other patients forced into close quarters by the governor's said order.

New York’s true nursing home death toll cloaked in secrecy

By BERNARD CONDON, MATT SEDENSKY and MEGHAN HOYER
yesterday

NEW YORK (AP) — Riverdale Nursing Home in the Bronx appears, on paper, to have escaped the worst of the coronavirus pandemic, with an official state count of just four deaths in its 146-bed facility.

The truth, according to the home, is far worse: 21 dead, most transported to hospitals before they succumbed.

“It was a cascading effect,” administrator Emil Fuzayov recalled. “One after the other.”

New York’s coronavirus death toll in nursing homes, already among the highest in the nation, could actually be a significant undercount. Unlike every other state with major outbreaks, New York only counts residents who died on nursing home property and not those who were transported to hospitals and died there.

...

For all 43 states that break out nursing home data, resident deaths make up 44% of total COVID deaths in their states, according to data from the Kaiser Family Foundation. Assuming the same proportion held in New York, that would translate to more than 11,000 nursing home deaths.

New York’s true nursing home death toll cloaked in secrecy

 

[snakestretcher]

Wow. Cuomo's order caused maybe 11,000 nursing home deaths - almost half of whom weren't counted as such because the sick elderly patients died in a hosptial instead of the home where they were infected by other patients forced into close quarters by the governor's said order.

Good, so now speculation, assumption, no evidence whatsoever, "maybe" and "could be" is a fact? Try harder; the entire article is based in nothing but a wild and unsubstantiated guess.

 

[Torus34]

I'm a retired scientist. My thinking is informed by the requirement of causality. With regard to the number of deaths assigned to the SARS-CoV-2 virus pandemic in New York State's nursing homes, I would look for the number from multiple sources and then check the totals for agreement.

As to the assigned reasons for the deaths, I would require that there be traceability. This means that each specific case of a NYS nursing home resident who died from the disease be checked to determine whether that resident caught the disease from a patient with the disease who was transferred into the nursing home.

To date, I doubt if anyone on this forum has access to those data.

'Nuf said.

Regards, stay safe 'n well. Remember the Big 3: masks, hand washing and physical distancing.

 

[snakestretcher]

I'm a retired scientist. My thinking is informed by the requirement of causality. With regard to the number of deaths assigned to the SARS-CoV-2 virus pandemic in New York State's nursing homes, I would look for the number from multiple sources and then check the totals for agreement.

As to the assigned reasons for the deaths, I would require that there be traceability. This means that each specific case of a NYS nursing home resident who died from the disease be checked to determine whether that resident caught the disease from a patient with the disease who was transferred into the nursing home.

To date, I doubt if anyone on this forum has access to those data.

'Nuf said.

Regards, stay safe 'n well. Remember the Big 3: masks, hand washing and physical distancing.

I also worked in a science-related field before retiring (cytopathology), and articles such as that quoted are always treated with caution and scepticism, absent substantiating and corroborating data upon which science relies.

 

[HonestJoe]

Wow. Cuomo's order caused maybe 11,000 nursing home deaths - almost half of whom weren't counted as such because the sick elderly patients died in a hosptial instead of the home where they were infected by other patients forced into close quarters by the governor's said order.

Lies, damn lies and statistics!

There is a key misrepresentation here. The narrative is that the statistics presented (that four people with COVID-19 died at the particular care home) are wrong. That isn't the case though, it is an accurate measure of what actually happened (presumably). The issue is in the interpretation. Obviously most people who die of a serious disease like this will end up actually passing away in hospital so data on where they were at point of death isn't the only relevant information. To properly assess what the article claims it wants to assess requires a more detailed and nuanced look at the wider data.

That generally isn't what the media do want though (especially if they're expected to do the actual work). They just want big numbers and simple arguments to generate eye-catching (and thus money-making) headlines.

This reminds me of when data was released about where COVID-19 patients were admitted to hospital from. Unsurprisingly, most were admitted from home (because generally, you start feeling ill so you stay at home then you get worse and call the ambulance). This was widely misrepresented in the press (knowingly or not) as meaning all those people caught the virus at home, being spun in to attacks on preventative measures in workplaces and shops.

 

[eman623]

Good, so now speculation, assumption, no evidence whatsoever, "maybe" and "could be" is a fact? Try harder; the entire article is based in nothing but a wild and unsubstantiated guess.

It's not wild, nor unsubstantiated. Read the article to learn the substantiation for the claim. New York calculates nursing home deaths differently than other states.

 

[Slavister]

Wow. Cuomo's order caused maybe 11,000 nursing home deaths - almost half of whom weren't counted as such because the sick elderly patients died in a hosptial instead of the home where they were infected by other patients forced into close quarters by the governor's said order.

The article says nothing about what I bolded - that's just your unfounded speculation.

Even if article is correct (and they admit they are just guessing at their 11k estimate), that would just mean NY is at the same level of nursing home deaths as other states - in fact, that's how the article authors got to that 11k number. That would mean Governor's order in fact did NOT increase death toll vs what happened everywhere else.

I can see how NY have counted deaths differently, whether politically motivated or not. It's been a moving target how to assign covid deaths; e.g. based on location of death or prior residence. But we have no idea how big of a difference it makes.

 

[eman623]

The article says nothing about what I bolded - that's just your unfounded speculation.

Even if article is correct (and they admit they are just guessing at their 11k estimate), that would just mean NY is at the same level of nursing home deaths as other states - in fact, that's how the article authors got to that 11k number. That would mean Governor's order in fact did NOT increase death toll vs what happened everywhere else.

I can see how NY have counted deaths differently, whether politically motivated or not. It's been a moving target how to assign covid deaths; e.g. based on location of death or prior residence. But we have no idea how big of a difference it makes.

That's an interesting spin.
1. Governor signs order forcing sick people into nursing homes.
2. Death rate from nursing home deaths (estimated) goes higher than the total death rate in all but one other state. Including states with a higher overall population then NY's.
3. People spin that to claim the order did not increase the death toll compared to what happened elsewhere.

 

[Slavister]

That's an interesting spin.
1. Governor signs order forcing sick people into nursing homes.
2. Death rate from nursing home deaths (estimated) goes higher than the total death rate in all but one other state. Including states with a higher overall population then NY's.
3. People spin that to claim the order did not increase the death toll compared to what happened elsewhere.

You are the one spinning here.

Cuomo was running out of hospital beds. Where should he have sent these folks?

That's what happens when healthcare system runs out of capacity.

You have to choose between bad options.

Cuomo order only applied to those in stable condition and he also said nursing homes incapable of handling (i.e. properly isolating) COVID patients did not have to take them.

It is NOT clear from the stats whether those patients ended up increasing infection rates and if so by how much.

I would not be surprised if they did, but we simply do NOT know that despite your right wing propaganda.

 

[Moderate Right]

Wow. Cuomo's order caused maybe 11,000 nursing home deaths - almost half of whom weren't counted as such because the sick elderly patients died in a hosptial instead of the home where they were infected by other patients forced into close quarters by the governor's said order.

Cuomo is the left's poster child. He can do no wrong. Just the other day California got in trouble for serious undercounting. Who makes the MSM headlines? Florida and Texas.