New Poll Shows Bernie Sanders Jump Into The Lead For 2020 Democratic Primary

[Perotista]

New Poll Shows Bernie Sanders Jump Into The Lead For 2020 Democratic Primary



The Hill panel breakdown:




Hilariously (albeit unsurprisingly), Reuters buried the lead as per its headline here to highlight Bloomberg: Reuters/Ipsos poll: 3% support Bloomberg for Democratic nomination - Reuters

As a Bernie supporter this is great news, but of course this one poll is in no way definitive; I'll be more confident once I start seeing aggregates confirm this Ipsos sample. However, it does further confirm ongoing trends featuring the decline of Biden and more recently Warren, as well as Bernie Sander's recent surge upward.

Here's the latest polling data from RCP averages. It shows Sanders climbing ahead of Warren for 2nd, but still 10 points behind Biden.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination

Buttigieg leads Sanders in the first in the Nation Iowa Caucuses.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus

New Hampshire is close to a three way tie between Biden, Buttigieg and Warren with Sanders 4th.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary

Nevada caucus is next, Biden up by 9 over warren and 10 over Sanders.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...vada_democratic_presidential_caucus-6866.html

South Carolina is all Biden, no one else is even close

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...ina_democratic_presidential_primary-6824.html

Then comes Super Tuesday.

 

[Nap]

Ridiculous. Obama is an outright conservative next to the likes of FDR.

Lol, FDR a Liberal? The man was effectively the Bernie Sanders of his day. Liberalism is based on individual rights and limited government the antithesis of what FDR stood for.

 

[Phys251]

So, you want Trump to get handed another 4 years?

You're not doing anyone any favors.

Your ilk will say that regardless of who we nominate. :lol:

 

[RetiredUSN]

Your ilk will say that regardless of who we nominate. :lol:

What is my ilk?

You don't have a clue, but still feel the need to interject your usual freaking nonsense anyways.

 

[Rexedgar]

What is my ilk?

You don't have a clue, but still feel the need to interject your usual freaking nonsense anyways.

View attachment 67268933

 

[Phys251]

What is my ilk?

You don't have a clue, but still feel the need to interject your usual freaking nonsense anyways.

Why are you wrong?

 

[Surrealistik]

Here's the latest polling data from RCP averages. It shows Sanders climbing ahead of Warren for 2nd, but still 10 points behind Biden.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination

Buttigieg leads Sanders in the first in the Nation Iowa Caucuses.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus

New Hampshire is close to a three way tie between Biden, Buttigieg and Warren with Sanders 4th.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary

Nevada caucus is next, Biden up by 9 over warren and 10 over Sanders.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Nevada Democratic Presidential Caucus

South Carolina is all Biden, no one else is even close

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary

Then comes Super Tuesday.

Are we looking at the same averages?

Bernie is a close 2nd in NH per the RCP poll average, while leading in the two most recent polls.

Further, it's no surprise Buttigieg tops in NH and Iowa; the man has dumped obscene amounts of money in both states with an all-in, all or nothing strategy, because the only shot he has to win this is via a momentum play, outspending the nearest candidate 10 to 1 in the latter state (yet, as above, Bernie is still beating him in recent polls in NH, and placing 2nd in Iowa whereas Biden is an embarrassing 4th in both starting states).

SC is a lost cause; no tears there, and if Biden continues to decay in Nevada, as he probably will, there's little to worry about, with Bernie virtually tied for 2nd with Warren.

Meanwhile, California is a tight race, and I certainly can't see Biden holding onto his narrow first, especially not after his absolutely disastrous handling of a Latino democrat who challenged him on immigration: Biden Tells Protester to 'Vote for Trump'

I know you hate Sanders, are probably outright indignant that he might ever be so much as tied with Biden in any poll, and want the centrist candidates to win, but you're really overstating their case.

 

[Surrealistik]

Lol, FDR a Liberal? The man was effectively the Bernie Sanders of his day. Liberalism is based on individual rights and limited government the antithesis of what FDR stood for.

Meanings change; the word you're looking for now is libertarianism. Also I agree; FDR was indeed the Bernie Sanders of his day, and is one of the greatest presidents of all time, rivaled only by Lincoln.

 

[Perotista]

Are we looking at the same averages?

Bernie is a close 2nd in NH per the RCP poll average, while leading in the two most recent polls.

Further, it's no surprise Buttigieg tops in NH and Iowa; the man has dumped obscene amounts of money in both states with an all-in, all or nothing strategy, because the only shot he has to win this is via a momentum play, outspending the nearest candidate 10 to 1 in the latter state (yet, as above, Bernie is still beating him in recent polls in NH, and placing 2nd in Iowa whereas Biden is an embarrassing 4th in both starting states).

SC is a lost cause; no tears there, and if Biden continues to decay in Nevada, as he probably will, there's little to worry about, with Bernie virtually tied for 2nd with Warren.

Meanwhile, California is a tight race, and I certainly can't see Biden holding onto his narrow first, especially not after his absolutely disastrous handling of a Latino democrat who challenged him on immigration: Biden Tells Protester to 'Vote for Trump'

I know you hate Sanders, are probably outright indignant that he might ever be so much as tied with Biden in any poll, and want the centrist candidates to win, but you're really overstating their case.

No, not overstating or backing any candidate. I don't hate Sanders, I respect him. I may disagree with his politics, but even so, I know he has the best interests of this country in his heart. I don't think Warren has, Biden's time has passed and perhaps Sanders also. Those RCP averages was as of this morning, probably around 0800. If new polls were added to them since, that would have changed them. Keep abreast is why I gave you the links. If you're going by RCP averaging and not just one poll. Averaging all the recent polls tends to take some bias out of any single poll along with a skewed poll. I like RCP.

I said numerous times, I preferred a fresh young face, if not from the northeast, so much the better. Biden, Sanders, Warren are in my book old political cronies from the northeast. Fresh young faces have done pretty good for the Democrats. Jimmy Carter, Georgia in 1976, Bill Clinton, Arkansas 1992, Obama, Illinois 2008. Old politicians from the northeast, not so good. Dukakis, Massachusetts 1988, John Kerry Massachusetts 2004 and Hillary Clinton, New York 2016.

We already have a tired old fart from the northeast as president today, New York. Time to spread the wealth around.

 

[Surrealistik]

No, not overstating or backing any candidate. I don't hate Sanders, I respect him. I may disagree with his politics, but even so, I know he has the best interests of this country in his heart. I don't think Warren has, Biden's time has passed and perhaps Sanders also. Those RCP averages was as of this morning, probably around 0800. If new polls were added to them since, that would have changed them. Keep abreast is why I gave you the links. If you're going by RCP averaging and not just one poll. Averaging all the recent polls tends to take some bias out of any single poll along with a skewed poll. I like RCP.

I said numerous times, I preferred a fresh young face, if not from the northeast, so much the better. Biden, Sanders, Warren are in my book old political cronies from the northeast. Fresh young faces have done pretty good for the Democrats. Jimmy Carter, Georgia in 1976, Bill Clinton, Arkansas 1992, Obama, Illinois 2008. Old politicians from the northeast, not so good. Dukakis, Massachusetts 1988, John Kerry Massachusetts 2004 and Hillary Clinton, New York 2016.

We already have a tired old fart from the northeast as president today, New York. Time to spread the wealth around.

Alright, my apologies then if that's not your angle and I presumed too much. While I might prefer someone younger myself, no one else, in my view, has the will, fortitude and policy to match Sanders; Warren comes closest.

As to polling, I'm going by RCP averages; I don't invest any meaningful amount of stock in individual polls, aside from them possibly hinting at a new trend or significant event if they're dramatic or unexpected as per my original post. I will say though that some of your analysis appears to be lagging. Overall, on the whole, and context considered (like Buttigieg's massive NH/Iowa spend) things look pretty good for Sanders in the early states.

 

[marke]

New Poll Shows Bernie Sanders Jump Into The Lead For 2020 Democratic Primary



The Hill panel breakdown:




Hilariously (albeit unsurprisingly), Reuters buried the lead as per its headline here to highlight Bloomberg: Reuters/Ipsos poll: 3% support Bloomberg for Democratic nomination - Reuters

As a Bernie supporter this is great news, but of course this one poll is in no way definitive; I'll be more confident once I start seeing aggregates confirm this Ipsos sample. However, it does further confirm ongoing trends featuring the decline of Biden and more recently Warren, as well as Bernie Sander's recent surge upward.

Deluded Americans giddily cheer the rise of the American version of Mao.

 

[Perotista]

Alright, my apologies then if that's not your angle and I presumed too much. While I might prefer someone younger myself, no one else, in my view, has the will, fortitude and policy to match Sanders; Warren comes closest.

As to polling, I'm going by RCP averages; I don't invest any meaningful amount of stock in individual polls, aside from them possibly hinting at a new trend or significant event if they're dramatic or unexpected as per my original post. I will say though that some of your analysis appears to be lagging. Overall, on the whole, and context considered (like Buttigieg's massive NH/Iowa spend) things look pretty good for Sanders in the early states.

Polling this far out means little except who gets into the Democratic debates. Buttigieg, a distant 4th needs to make a splash. Spending big in NH and Iowa makes sense. If I were him, I'd do the same. A big showing in Iowa and NH could make it the big four instead of the big three. I do think one of the big three will win the nomination with Buttigieg having an outside shot. The rest are nothing more than window dressing. At least at this point in time.

But one huge mistake, could doom any one of the big three. Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton along with Obama were unknowns at this juncture. Yet went on to win the nomination and the presidency. Carter did what Buttigieg did, he won both Iowa and New Hampshire and was on his way to the nomination over more well known candidates. Bill clinton lost both Iowa and NH, Iowa to favorite son Harkin and NH to Tsongas. But Clinton rode super Tuesday victories to the nomination. Obama got off to a great start winning 3 of the first four. Split the Super Tuesday vote, then Obama caught fire winning the next 11 in a row.

Buttigieg has moved toward the center, despite his spending in Iowa and NH, I wouldn't underestimate him.

 

[Surrealistik]

Polling this far out means little except who gets into the Democratic debates. Buttigieg, a distant 4th needs to make a splash. Spending big in NH and Iowa makes sense. If I were him, I'd do the same. A big showing in Iowa and NH could make it the big four instead of the big three. I do think one of the big three will win the nomination with Buttigieg having an outside shot. The rest are nothing more than window dressing. At least at this point in time.

But one huge mistake, could doom any one of the big three. Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton along with Obama were unknowns at this juncture. Yet went on to win the nomination and the presidency. Carter did what Buttigieg did, he won both Iowa and New Hampshire and was on his way to the nomination over more well known candidates. Bill clinton lost both Iowa and NH, Iowa to favorite son Harkin and NH to Tsongas. But Clinton rode super Tuesday victories to the nomination. Obama got off to a great start winning 3 of the first four. Split the Super Tuesday vote, then Obama caught fire winning the next 11 in a row.

Buttigieg has moved toward the center, despite his spending in Iowa and NH, I wouldn't underestimate him.

I don't disagree with polling being not particularly important now, though getting into the debates is of course huge.

And yes, Buttigieg is playing the only strategy available to him that can possibly work since he polls so terribly everywhere else, and the needle hasn't otherwise moved for him all that much; center or not, he hasn't really had a great showing in other states where his spend and ground game are more standard.

 

[marke]

I'm in my 30s, make substantially more than six figures on the average per annum, have personally benefited from Trump's tax cuts and probably stand to lose much more than I gain from a Sanders' administration financially, yet I'll vote Bernie over Trump any day of the week because I prefer a man of demonstrable principle who is going to strive to implement long overdue policies in this country over a moronic fraud that has cynically exploited and demeaned his office as a vehicle of self-interest, both for himself, and the wealthy at large.

It's easy to baselessly broad brush and demean Sanders' supporters as being poor, universally young, unaccomplished and/or envious who are looking for a handout to satisfy your political biases, but the fact is that his appeal has far more to do with recognizing the real problems this country has, along with an earnest desire to fix them. Having said that, I have no doubt that a significant chunk of his support stems from people who are exposed to or experience these problems first hand, because of course it would; if you're living large in an ivory tower, doubly so if everyone you know is doing likewise, you may not even be aware they exist in the first place, or at best they exist in your mind only as a remote, abstracted notion without any bearing on your daily life whatsoever.

I can see how rich people with a taste for pleasure and a distaste for God's rules of civilized order would favor Bernie over any republican unless the republican shared some of the ungodly policies promoted by secular democrats.

 

[Perotista]

I don't disagree with polling being not particularly important now, though getting into the debates is of course huge.

And yes, Buttigieg is playing the only strategy available to him that can possibly work since he polls so terribly everywhere else, and the needle hasn't otherwise moved for him all that much; center or not, he hasn't really had a great showing in other states where his spend and ground game are more standard.

One thing Buttigieg may have going for him is he isn't some old tired politician who's been around for centuries. Of course that may be just me. Always looking for a fresh young face. I do think it's time for a generational change. We've had them from time to time. JFK in 1960 bring an end to the dominance of the born pre-1900 generation. Bill Clinton ending the WWII generation dominance. Perhaps it's time to end the baby boomer's reign.

 

[Surrealistik]

One thing Buttigieg may have going for him is he isn't some old tired politician who's been around for centuries. Of course that may be just me. Always looking for a fresh young face. I do think it's time for a generational change. We've had them from time to time. JFK in 1960 bring an end to the dominance of the born pre-1900 generation. Bill Clinton ending the WWII generation dominance. Perhaps it's time to end the baby boomer's reign.

Buttigieg may not be a tired old politician, but he certainly does act like one with his obsessive commitment to bromide and platitude, and I'm personally sick of this, as are many other younger voters. I was fooled by Obama's appealing albeit substance-free rhetoric in 2008 (though to be fair, a big part of it was that the only alternative was well... Hillary), let it disarm my doubts about his record and the reams of money he was taking in from all the wrong people, and after his disappointing administration, it'll never happen again.

A big part of the reason Sanders is so beloved by the youth is that he's genuine. He doesn't prevaricate like a typical politico and is impatient to strike at the beating heart of any issue. He may be old, but he acts like a firebrand tired of the bull**** who seeks to break through and take action; in him we see ourselves.

 

[Perotista]

Buttigieg may not be a tired old politician, but he certainly does act like one with his obsessive commitment to bromide and platitude, and I'm personally sick of this, as are many other younger voters. I was fooled by Obama's appealing albeit substance-free rhetoric in 2008 (though to be fair, a big part of it was that the only alternative was well... Hillary), let it disarm my doubts about his record and the reams of money he was taking in from all the wrong people, and after his disappointing administration, it'll never happen again.

A big part of the reason Sanders is so beloved by the youth is that he's genuine. He doesn't prevaricate like a typical politico and is impatient to strike at the beating heart of any issue. He may be old, but he acts like a firebrand tired of the bull**** who seeks to break through and take action; in him we see ourselves.

Regardless of what one thinks of Sanders politics, he is the genuine article. In 2008 I was a McCain backer. I liked the maverick who wasn't afraid to work across the aisle. Even if his fellow Republicans were much peeved about him doing so. Besides, he was a fellow military man. It didn't bother me he lost to Obama, you had the recession and quite a lot of folks tired of war. Tired of Republican rule. It was more or less a foregone conclusion.

With our system of choosing candidates, if one doesn't like either major party candidate one is left with the choice of voting for the lesser of two evils, the least worst candidate, the candidate you want to lose the least or voting third party against both. Even though you know in advance that candidate has no chance of winning. 9 million people voted the later in 2016. I was one of them. 2016 wasn't my first third party vote either, I voted third party in 2012 mainly because I lost faith in Obama and never trusted Romney. Then there are the two Perot votes in 1992 and 1996. I'm not a party animal, I'll swing back and forth if I like or dislike their candidates.

For me, 2016 is still up in the air. I know I won't be voting for Trump. But that doesn't mean an automatic Democratic vote either. That depends on who they nominate. So we'll see. I'd still like to see a generational change.

 

[dcsports]

For me, 2016 is still up in the air. I know I won't be voting for Trump. But that doesn't mean an automatic Democratic vote either. That depends on who they nominate. So we'll see. I'd still like to see a generational change.

I think the book is probably closed on 2016. If you haven't decided by now...

(I'm sure you meant 2020. )

 

[Perotista]

I think the book is probably closed on 2016. If you haven't decided by now...

(I'm sure you meant 2020. )

Exactly. Sometimes my fingers get ahead of my mind or brain.