New Poll Shows Bernie Sanders Jump Into The Lead For 2020 Democratic Primary

[Surrealistik]

Both have 'plans' to pay for it through dramatically increased taxes. Bernie excessively so. (Warren less so, but she won't cover the cost either). People won't want to pay that price tag. Sorry.

Evidently the polling disagrees with you thus far.

 

[Waddy]

The DNC will put an end to this craziness.

 

[CaughtInThe]

PredictIt

Bernie no is selling at 86 cents on the dollar.

Can we set it up so that we can have our own private pool of people here at that site?

 

[dobieg]

My God I hope Bernie is the Dem candidate. I can see millions of middle aged hard working Democrats with 401k's throw caution to the wind and vote for the crazy old dude who looks and acts like Doc from Back To The Future.

 

[dobieg]

 

[slick]

So, you want Trump to get handed another 4 years?

You're not doing anyone any favors.

The most recent polls on the race in RCP has Bernie & Biden the only Dems currently ahead of Trump, with
Buttigieg & Warren far behind. When Biden flops it's Bernie who has the best chance against Trump, not
Warren & certainly not Butt!!!!

Nevada: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 47, Trump 40 Biden +7
Nevada: Trump vs. Warren FOX News Warren 44, Trump 41 Warren +3
Nevada: Trump vs. Sanders FOX News Sanders 47, Trump 40 Sanders +7
Nevada: Trump vs. Buttigieg FOX News Trump 41, Buttigieg 41 Tie
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 45, Trump 43 Biden +2
North Carolina: Trump vs. Warren FOX News Trump 44, Warren 43 Trump +1
North Carolina: Trump vs. Sanders FOX News Sanders 45, Trump 44 Sanders +1
North Carolina: Trump vs. Buttigieg FOX News Trump 43, Buttigieg 39 Trump +4

 

[3leftsdoo]

The DNC will put an end to this craziness.

The DNC?

They ARE the craziness.

Democrats = Criminally insane

Bernie would have won in 2016, but can't win in 2020.

Or get the nomination.

 

[Outlook]

New Poll Shows Bernie Sanders Jump Into The Lead For 2020 Democratic Primary



The Hill panel breakdown:




Hilariously (albeit unsurprisingly), Reuters buried the lead as per its headline here to highlight Bloomberg: Reuters/Ipsos poll: 3% support Bloomberg for Democratic nomination - Reuters

As a Bernie supporter this is great news, but of course this one poll is in no way definitive; I'll be more confident once I start seeing aggregates confirm this Ipsos sample. However, it does further confirm ongoing trends featuring the decline of Biden and more recently Warren, as well as Bernie Sander's recent surge upward.

Wake me up when the democrats have a candidate.
The person who runs against Trump is the candidate chosen by the DNC, Bernie should know that by now.

 

[Outlook]

The most recent polls on the race in RCP has Bernie & Biden the only Dems currently ahead of Trump, with
Buttigieg & Warren far behind. When Biden flops it's Bernie who has the best chance against Trump, not
Warren & certainly not Butt!!!!

Nevada: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 47, Trump 40 Biden +7
Nevada: Trump vs. Warren FOX News Warren 44, Trump 41 Warren +3
Nevada: Trump vs. Sanders FOX News Sanders 47, Trump 40 Sanders +7
Nevada: Trump vs. Buttigieg FOX News Trump 41, Buttigieg 41 Tie
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 45, Trump 43 Biden +2
North Carolina: Trump vs. Warren FOX News Trump 44, Warren 43 Trump +1
North Carolina: Trump vs. Sanders FOX News Sanders 45, Trump 44 Sanders +1
North Carolina: Trump vs. Buttigieg FOX News Trump 43, Buttigieg 39 Trump +4

September 2016: Trump v. Hillary. Trump 40, Hillary 48. Hillary +8

 

[Waddy]

The DNC?

They ARE the craziness.

Democrats = Criminally insane

Bernie would have won in 2016, but can't win in 2020.

Or get the nomination.

Not if he has AOC as his running mate. 1 crazy + 1 crazy = defeat

 

[Surrealistik]

Wake me up when the democrats have a candidate.
The person who runs against Trump is the candidate chosen by the DNC, Bernie should know that by now.

The DNC, while powerful and certainly opposed to Bernie as nominee, doesn't have absolute control over who will be the Dem nominee; moreover, it is being closely watched this time around. There are certainly substantive changes that work against its favourite (Biden), like a comparatively large number of debates where Joe does nothing but bomb.

September 2016: Trump v. Hillary. Trump 40, Hillary 48. Hillary +8

I agree, it's definitely too premature to say who will win this far out, but as is, he's definitely one of the best performing candidates in head to heads if not the best performing.

 

[dcsports]

Evidently the polling disagrees with you thus far.

I just covered that. Thanks!

But again, head to head polling at this point is useless.

 

[Surrealistik]

I just covered that. Thanks!

But again, head to head polling at this point is useless.

No you haven't; the support for things like MFA and public college is durable, majoritarian and has nothing to do with head to heads. It is rather telling that majorities of Americans nationally continue to support them despite ceaseless attacks from the right, broad swaths of the media and even some voices from within the Democratic party (and this has been the case for years).

 

[dcsports]

The most recent polls on the race in RCP has Bernie & Biden the only Dems currently ahead of Trump, with
Buttigieg & Warren far behind. When Biden flops it's Bernie who has the best chance against Trump, not
Warren & certainly not Butt!!!!

Nevada: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 47, Trump 40 Biden +7
Nevada: Trump vs. Warren FOX News Warren 44, Trump 41 Warren +3
Nevada: Trump vs. Sanders FOX News Sanders 47, Trump 40 Sanders +7
Nevada: Trump vs. Buttigieg FOX News Trump 41, Buttigieg 41 Tie
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 45, Trump 43 Biden +2
North Carolina: Trump vs. Warren FOX News Trump 44, Warren 43 Trump +1
North Carolina: Trump vs. Sanders FOX News Sanders 45, Trump 44 Sanders +1
North Carolina: Trump vs. Buttigieg FOX News Trump 43, Buttigieg 39 Trump +4

Bernie only polls well because he's relatively unscathed. The other major candidates don't see him as a threat, and they'd prefer to later have his support / call upon his popularity in certain demographics (college). If he gets in the lead, expect the knives to come out.

His strength (freebies!) is also his weakness (massive tax increases to pay for it). That will scare a lot of people off when a spotlight is put on it.

 

[dcsports]

No you haven't; the support for things like MFA and public college is durable, majoritarian and has nothing to do with head to heads. It is rather telling that majorities of Americans nationally continue to support them despite ceaseless attacks from the right, broad swaths of the media and even some voices from within the Democratic party (and this has been the case for years).

Check back in the thread. I literally just covered it.

Sure, people would be in favor of those things in a vacuum. Everybody loves freebies. However, if it was that easy, we'd have them. The problem comes to paying for the programs. When you attach a price tag, the enthusiasm evaporates.

 

[bubbabgone]

If you'd prefer Trump face off against Sanders rather than the guy who seems like he may possibly have dementia and has done nothing but decay since he announced, or a consistently less electable Warren (who in my view has more flawed ideas on how to implement similar plans where differences exist), I'd consider that a wholesale abandonment of political instinct.

Oh absolutely.
To try to protect herself Warren is denying she's a Socialist.
Biden will deny his early dementia.
But Bernie? Bernie is an unapologetic balls-out Socialist with a Starbuck's constituency.
Translation: Bernie would be dead tofu before the first vote was cast.

 

[Surrealistik]

Oh absolutely.
To try to protect herself Warren is denying she's a Socialist.
Biden will deny his early dementia.
But Bernie? Bernie is an unapologetic balls-out Socialist with a Starbuck's constituency.
Translation: Bernie would be dead tofu before the first vote was cast.

Your baseless opinion is noted.

Check back in the thread. I literally just covered it.

Sure, people would be in favor of those things in a vacuum. Everybody loves freebies. However, if it was that easy, we'd have them. The problem comes to paying for the programs. When you attach a price tag, the enthusiasm evaporates.

Care to back that with polling data?

Here's polling that contradicts you directly: CNN Poll: Most think the government should provide a national health insurance program - CNNPolitics

Support for Medicare for All Jumps When Right-Wing Talking Points Are Countered With Strong Progressive Response: Poll | Common Dreams News

 

[dcsports]

Your baseless opinion is noted.



Care to back that with polling data?

Here's polling that contradicts you directly: CNN Poll: Most think the government should provide a national health insurance program - CNNPolitics

Support for Medicare for All Jumps When Right-Wing Talking Points Are Countered With Strong Progressive Response: Poll | Common Dreams News

No, it's not a wild leap at all. Note that even the articles you cited don't support Bernie's position. The CNN article states that "only one and five think it [a national insurance program] should replace private insurance, and the tax suggested is a dramatic increase on those earning $10M+ a year - which not only is unrealistic but wouldn't begin to pay for the program.

The other link is to a liberal site that discusses a poll conducted by a liberal organization, and really isn't worth commenting on. Even it notes that people aren't in favor of additional taxes to support a program, but noted that some people would change their mind if you told them it wouldn't cost them more.

 

[Abbazorkzog]

Dear lord some of the special snowflakes in this thread. It doesn't take quantum mechanics to figure out - or be a <"sOcIaLiStCoMmIeLiBtArD"> to figure out that both Trump and the Democratic establishment/Obamaworld are ****ing morons.

 

[Surrealistik]

No, it's not a wild leap at all. Note that even the articles you cited don't support Bernie's position. The CNN article states that "only one and five think it [a national insurance program] should replace private insurance, and the tax suggested is a dramatic increase on those earning $10M+ a year - which not only is unrealistic but wouldn't begin to pay for the program.

Actually they do.

Firstly, you do realize that Singlepayer doesn't actually wholly replace private insurance right? That even in places like Canada and the UK, it continues to exist for supplemental coverage? The very notion that private insurance would be eliminated is a misnomer. Even in Bernie's specific bill the wording permits opportunities for them to continue existing in a supplemental capacity. This is further addressed per the polling of the second link.

Second, you predictably failed to read the article property for the sake of salvaging your argument: the polling on taxes was distinct and separate from the polling relating to healthcare, which only purports that taxes would be higher. That people do not support a specific increase in income taxes on 10+ mil to 70% doesn't say anything in relation to things like payroll taxes, transactional taxes, and the many other means of raising enough money.

The other link is to a liberal site that discusses a poll conducted by a liberal organization, and really isn't worth commenting on. Even it notes that people aren't in favor of additional taxes to support a program, but noted that some people would change their mind if you told them it wouldn't cost them more.

Since when is YouGov a 'liberal organization'?

And so, you note that when you tell them the truth regarding MFA and its outcomes, support skyrockets? That's not a good look since you're taking the contrarian approach here.

 

[Abbazorkzog]

Call me a pessimist if you must, but I seriously doubt the D establishment is anymore ready now than they were 4 years ago to allow any Independent to emerge victorious from a contested convention. They'll make back-room deals, they'll use rogue superdelegates, flip poll numbers like we saw CNN doing a few weeks ago... they'll stop at nothing to ensure that no outsider insurgent emerges victorious, they saw what happened with Trump on the other side and now they're bat**** full-blown paranoid schizophrenic McCarthyite nationalist.

Its about time we admit this isn't a problem with one side or the other, this is an endemic problem with the culture of America as a whole, and I say that as someone who realizes now he does love his country - but he is ****ing disgusted with his nation-state. There is a BIG difference between the two that a lot of people are conflating in recent years...

 

[dcsports]

Actually they do.

Firstly, you do realize that Singlepayer doesn't actually wholly replace private insurance right? That even in places like Canada and the UK, it continues to exist for supplemental coverage? The very notion that private insurance would be eliminated is a misnomer. Even in Bernie's specific bill the wording permits opportunities for them to continue existing in a supplemental capacity. This is further addressed per the polling of the second link.

Second, you predictably failed to read the article property for the sake of salvaging your argument: the polling on taxes was distinct and separate from the polling relating to healthcare, which only purports that taxes would be higher. That people do not support a specific increase in income taxes on 10+ mil to 70% doesn't say anything in relation to things like payroll taxes, transactional taxes, and the many other means of raising enough money.



Since when is YouGov a 'liberal organization'?

And so, you note that when you tell them the truth regarding MFA and its outcomes, support skyrockets? That's not a good look since you're taking the contrarian approach here.

You are stretching it a lot there. Sorry. Yes - single payer essentially replaces commercial insurance. It's in the title. The fact that supplemental payers exist mean that they aren't primary coverage.

Your second posting was from "Common Dreams", and the poll was done by "YouGov/Progressive Change Institute".

 

[Mr. Invisible]

Head to head polls this early are meaningless. In Bernie's case, I think this is especially true. He is a nice guy, and a principled man - but much of his platform is not realistic. I think most people recognize this, and would vote accordingly in a general election.

I didn't cite a head to head poll for this year, but rather for the 2016 election, just arguing that Bernie could potentially when against Trump, were he the nominee this time around.

 

[Surrealistik]

You are stretching it a lot there. Sorry. Yes - single payer essentially replaces commercial insurance. It's in the title. The fact that supplemental payers exist mean that they aren't primary coverage.

Your second posting was from "Common Dreams", and the poll was done by "YouGov/Progressive Change Institute".

It's YouGovBlue which is the segment of YouGov that does polling for progressive issues. If that's the standard you use, I suppose you would also trash the likes of say Fox polling (rated A- per 538), despite them continually doing good work and little in terms of outliers? YouGov is rated at B- per 538, which is above average and respectable.

Second, no, not at all. Eliminating private insurance wholesale is not remotely equivalent to private insurance continuing to exist as gold plated supplementals even if they don't provide primary coverage. Further, private elimination or not, support remains strong when the role of private insurers and retention of providers/continuity of care is explained.

 

[dcsports]

I didn't cite a head to head poll for this year, but rather for the 2016 election, just arguing that Bernie could potentially when against Trump, were he the nominee this time around.

Sure, Sanders COULD win, in theory. I really think this is overstated though. Sanders hasn't really been challenged, because he's never been a serious threat. If he becomes one in the primary, other Democrats will bring out the knives, and he would definitely be challenged in the general.