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New NBC Poll: Hillary Falls Further

JoeTrumps

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Poll: Clinton and Trump Now Tied as GOP Convention Kicks Off - NBC News

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are virtually tied in the polls as the Republican National Convention convenes in Cleveland this week. Clinton now just barely edges out Trump in a direct head-to-head match-up, 46 percent to 45 percent. This is slightly down from the 3-point lead she held in last week's tracking poll numbers.

She better get some kind of democratic convention bump or it's going to be a long election cycle for Hillary
 

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If I recall correctly, McCain led Obama by a small margin and increased that to a double digit lead exiting the Republican convention in 2008 and Romney had similar numbers coming out of the Republican convention in 2012. If this is all Trump has at this point in time, after his VP nominee is announced, and while the convention is hogging the limelight, it's over. Trump is about to get slaughtered in the electoral college count.

Virtually any other Republican candidate, with the exception of Ted Cruz, would be leading the polls at this point by a significant margin. With all the negative media attention Clinton has received lately, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, Chris Christie, would all be leading Clinton by a significant margin at this point in time. They may not have won it in November, but they'd be in it. Failing social media pics of Hillary in a burka wielding the severed head of Monica Lewinski, this election is over and another prime opportunity for Republicans to gain the White House has been pissed away.
 

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Shhhhh polls only mean something if Clinton is in the lead.
 

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ajn678

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If I recall correctly, McCain led Obama by a small margin and increased that to a double digit lead exiting the Republican convention in 2008 and Romney had similar numbers coming out of the Republican convention in 2012. If this is all Trump has at this point in time, after his VP nominee is announced, and while the convention is hogging the limelight, it's over. Trump is about to get slaughtered in the electoral college count.

Virtually any other Republican candidate, with the exception of Ted Cruz, would be leading the polls at this point by a significant margin. With all the negative media attention Clinton has received lately, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, Chris Christie, would all be leading Clinton by a significant margin at this point in time. They may not have won it in November, but they'd be in it. Failing social media pics of Hillary in a burka wielding the severed head of Monica Lewinski, this election is over and another prime opportunity for Republicans to gain the White House has been pissed away.

We haven't even gotten to the debates yet. If you actually think that Clinton dropping like a stone is a good thing for her campaign you're insane.
 

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The important poll is on election day.

That will be very close, reflecting a deeply divided America......just as in the last few elections.

I suspect Trump will win, barring a massive change somewhere.
 

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We haven't even gotten to the debates yet. If you actually think that Clinton dropping like a stone is a good thing for her campaign you're insane.

The convention bounces are definitely real. If Trump is still behind or tied during his, that's not a good sign for him. But there's still plenty of time left, especially with the debates to come and the conventions so early this year.
 

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The important poll is on election day.

That will be very close, reflecting a deeply divided America......just as in the last few elections.

I suspect Trump will win, barring a massive change somewhere.

Today, the sissies are hiding behind a beautiful woman's convention speech. Tomorrow, it'll be something different, some new drama laced with all the twists and turns of "Days of Our Lives" and equally silly. Sometimes you get the feeling that you're out on the playground at Kindergarten, and all the kids are running around in circles screaming about how Mary has a bugger in her nose while they don't even know that they have wet their pants.
 

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If I recall correctly, McCain led Obama by a small margin and increased that to a double digit lead exiting the Republican convention in 2008 and Romney had similar numbers coming out of the Republican convention in 2012. If this is all Trump has at this point in time, after his VP nominee is announced, and while the convention is hogging the limelight, it's over. Trump is about to get slaughtered in the electoral college count.

Virtually any other Republican candidate, with the exception of Ted Cruz, would be leading the polls at this point by a significant margin. With all the negative media attention Clinton has received lately, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, Chris Christie, would all be leading Clinton by a significant margin at this point in time. They may not have won it in November, but they'd be in it. Failing social media pics of Hillary in a burka wielding the severed head of Monica Lewinski, this election is over and another prime opportunity for Republicans to gain the White House has been pissed away.

IMHO, had the GOP chosen Kasich, he would have beaten Hillary in a landslide.
 

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She better get some kind of democratic convention bump or it's going to be a long election cycle for Hillary

She will get a bump, I think it's rather common for candidates to get a bump during their convention. But it's also probably going to be a long election cycle. I don't think many people want either Trump or Hillary and it may not be the easiest road. However, if Trump's campaign continues its novice route, making silly gaffes that should be caught and vetted out, once it really gets into it and it is Hillary v. Trump, she could easily run away with the election.

I don't think Trump will be able to run away with the election. If he plays a very good hand, he can keep it tight (possibly win, but I think it's more probable Hillary wins) and make it hard on Hillary. But I don't think he'll ever run away with the election.
 

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If I recall correctly, McCain led Obama by a small margin and increased that to a double digit lead exiting the Republican convention in 2008 and Romney had similar numbers coming out of the Republican convention in 2012. If this is all Trump has at this point in time, after his VP nominee is announced, and while the convention is hogging the limelight, it's over. Trump is about to get slaughtered in the electoral college count.

Virtually any other Republican candidate, with the exception of Ted Cruz, would be leading the polls at this point by a significant margin. With all the negative media attention Clinton has received lately, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, Chris Christie, would all be leading Clinton by a significant margin at this point in time. They may not have won it in November, but they'd be in it. Failing social media pics of Hillary in a burka wielding the severed head of Monica Lewinski, this election is over and another prime opportunity for Republicans to gain the White House has been pissed away.

I have a mixed reaction to that comment.

On the one hand I too believe that most any Republican would show well against Hillary because she's such a horrible human being and because they'd be in a better position to nail her with details in debates since they're likely to actually know details. Trump ain't likely to know much about anything lower than a 20,000 foot detail level.

Trump however is more likely to eviscerate Hillary in a debate by saying something the other Republicans would be afraid to say. She's got to be prepared for whatever comes at her. And we know she can only be prepared with whatever someone wrote for her.
And it could be there are enough voters so pissed off that, all things considered, they'll vote his way.

So at this point I can't agree with your conclusion that she's a lock.
This is an unusual election year with unusual electorate expectations but with unusual candidates having unorthodox characteristics.
 

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IMHO, had the GOP chosen Kasich, he would have beaten Hillary in a landslide.

Same could be said for any of the other GOP candidates. Rubio would have destroyed her.

Trump gave her a fighting chance, which makes you wonder if they're not in cahoots.
 

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We haven't even gotten to the debates yet. If you actually think that Clinton dropping like a stone is a good thing for her campaign you're insane.

Trump was a buffoon in the Republican debates - he's not going to win any points with his misogynistic and dismissive facial expressions in a Presidential debate. And you have a strange idea of what "dropping like a stone" means. Seems to me, even in this poll, that stone is still leading the cement head who will carry the Republican colours to the polls.

I always love how supporters of Trump revel in the fact that it doesn't matter what Trump does or says, people will still support him. Well, news flash, the same is true of supporters of Hillary Clinton and I'll be shocked if Independents will purposely go out to vote for a loose cannon like Trump.

It makes me nauseous to think that Hillary Clinton will be the next President. She isn't the slightest bit fit or deserving of that great position but the media and fools on the right have played into her hands and created about the only scenario whereby she will waltz into the White House.
 

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I have a mixed reaction to that comment.

On the one hand I too believe that most any Republican would show well against Hillary because she's such a horrible human being and because they'd be in a better position to nail her with details in debates since they're likely to actually know details. Trump ain't likely to know much about anything lower than a 20,000 foot detail level.

Trump however is more likely to eviscerate Hillary in a debate by saying something the other Republicans would be afraid to say. She's got to be prepared for whatever comes at her. And we know she can only be prepared with whatever someone wrote for her.
And it could be there are enough voters so pissed off that, all things considered, they'll vote his way.

So at this point I can't agree with your conclusion that she's a lock.
This is an unusual election year with unusual electorate expectations but with unusual candidates having unorthodox characteristics.

Good afternoon Bubba

I don't disagree with a lot of your points above, but they don't damage my conclusion at least in my view. Hillary Clinton has been under attack, rightly, for the past two decades plus and nothing sticks. The media wants Clinton in the White House and they will do their damnedest to ensure that happens. It's hard to imagine anything that Trump could come up with in the debates that will damage Clinton that hasn't already been beaten like a dead horse the past four years. Is it possible, sure - she's scum so anything's possible. But Trump's negatives are far worse than Clinton's, unbelievably, and the surface hasn't even been scratched yet into the shady life's work of Trump. I can almost guarantee that Clinton will be the one eviscerating Trump in the debates and her surrogates, both in the campaign and in the media, are poised to tear him apart.

It's not going to be pretty - I see Clinton getting well over 300 electoral college votes by the time the counting's done. My only hope at this point is that Trump doesn't piss away the Republican's control of the Senate in the process.
 

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Same could be said for any of the other GOP candidates. Rubio would have destroyed her.

Trump gave her a fighting chance, which makes you wonder if they're not in cahoots.

Of course they are. They are actually close friends. Trump has shown up at many Hillary Clinton events..... At least he did before he started running for president. I wouldn't be surprised if he and Hillary hatched a plan during one of those events.
 

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Trump was a buffoon in the Republican debates - he's not going to win any points with his misogynistic and dismissive facial expressions in a Presidential debate. And you have a strange idea of what "dropping like a stone" means. Seems to me, even in this poll, that stone is still leading the cement head who will carry the Republican colours to the polls.

I always love how supporters of Trump revel in the fact that it doesn't matter what Trump does or says, people will still support him. Well, news flash, the same is true of supporters of Hillary Clinton and I'll be shocked if Independents will purposely go out to vote for a loose cannon like Trump.

It makes me nauseous to think that Hillary Clinton will be the next President. She isn't the slightest bit fit or deserving of that great position but the media and fools on the right have played into her hands and created about the only scenario whereby she will waltz into the White House.

You don't have to vote for either. Vote for Gary Johnson. At least when you leave the voting booth, you will be able to say "I don't feel dirty".
 

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Good afternoon Bubba

I don't disagree with a lot of your points above, but they don't damage my conclusion at least in my view. Hillary Clinton has been under attack, rightly, for the past two decades plus and nothing sticks. The media wants Clinton in the White House and they will do their damnedest to ensure that happens. It's hard to imagine anything that Trump could come up with in the debates that will damage Clinton that hasn't already been beaten like a dead horse the past four years. Is it possible, sure - she's scum so anything's possible. But Trump's negatives are far worse than Clinton's, unbelievably, and the surface hasn't even been scratched yet into the shady life's work of Trump. I can almost guarantee that Clinton will be the one eviscerating Trump in the debates and her surrogates, both in the campaign and in the media, are poised to tear him apart.

It's not going to be pretty - I see Clinton getting well over 300 electoral college votes by the time the counting's done. My only hope at this point is that Trump doesn't piss away the Republican's control of the Senate in the process.

The media certainly DOES intend to do their damnedest to get Hillary in and they will be the ones moderating the debates ... and we've seen how anxious they were to introduce any of her scandals ... which is to say, not at all.
And she's in a much better position to present what will appear to be factual information, particularly on foreign policy, and he's not knowledgeable enough to directly challenge her on it - officeholders would be.
What he has is her "extreme carelessness" and he'll be bringing that up early and often.

But that brings me to something else you just mentioned ... what could Trump possibly come up with during the debates. One thing I can see him doing that, say, Jeb would never do is to confront the mods ... get in their faces.
When they ask him about Trump U, and we know they will because they should, then Trump can get a lot of attention by asking them why they haven't been hammering Hillary on her many scandals, because they will not. The debate audience will erupt , the home audience will erupt because they hate the media as much as they hate the candidates, and the media may feel obliged (and defensive) enough to cover it.

Which brings me to another point.
I wish to hell there was no debate audience at those things. Way too much playing to the audience and waste of time.
 

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If I recall correctly, McCain led Obama by a small margin and increased that to a double digit lead exiting the Republican convention in 2008 and Romney had similar numbers coming out of the Republican convention in 2012. If this is all Trump has at this point in time, after his VP nominee is announced, and while the convention is hogging the limelight, it's over. Trump is about to get slaughtered in the electoral college count.

Virtually any other Republican candidate, with the exception of Ted Cruz, would be leading the polls at this point by a significant margin. With all the negative media attention Clinton has received lately, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, Chris Christie, would all be leading Clinton by a significant margin at this point in time. They may not have won it in November, but they'd be in it. Failing social media pics of Hillary in a burka wielding the severed head of Monica Lewinski, this election is over and another prime opportunity for Republicans to gain the White House has been pissed away.

It was very brief. RNC convention was 9/1-9/4 on 2008. McCain got a bump for 2 days following that. He only hit double digits in one poll at +10. It was very short lived through.
 

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If I recall correctly, McCain led Obama by a small margin and increased that to a double digit lead exiting the Republican convention in 2008 and Romney had similar numbers coming out of the Republican convention in 2012. If this is all Trump has at this point in time, after his VP nominee is announced, and while the convention is hogging the limelight, it's over. Trump is about to get slaughtered in the electoral college count.

Virtually any other Republican candidate, with the exception of Ted Cruz, would be leading the polls at this point by a significant margin. With all the negative media attention Clinton has received lately, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, Chris Christie, would all be leading Clinton by a significant margin at this point in time. They may not have won it in November, but they'd be in it. Failing social media pics of Hillary in a burka wielding the severed head of Monica Lewinski, this election is over and another prime opportunity for Republicans to gain the White House has been pissed away.


The Palin affect right? Then the bottom well out. Can you see Trump losing momentum like that?
 

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If I recall correctly, McCain led Obama by a small margin and increased that to a double digit lead exiting the Republican convention in 2008 and Romney had similar numbers coming out of the Republican convention in 2012. If this is all Trump has at this point in time, after his VP nominee is announced, and while the convention is hogging the limelight, it's over.
Double digit lead? According to RCP, Romney never even managed a single digit lead the entire election cycle. Can't get the McCain figures to load on my phone.
 
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