New Jersey and Virginia are very likely to elect female Governors later this year, both of them Democrats.

[Tender Branson]

NJ and VA are the only important state elections later this year in November in the US.

Both states usually see the incumbent US President's party perform really bad or/and elect the opposite party for governor.

This year, in New Jersey, Mikie Sherrill should win.

In Virginia, Abigail Spanberger should win.

While Sherrill would be the 2nd female governor of New Jersey (they had a Republican woman governor in the 1990s), Spanberger will be the first woman governor ever in Virginia.

Even if Spanberger loses (which is highly unlikely*), Virginia will still get a female governor, because the R candidate is also a woman.

*VA will definitely vote D this year, because it employs the most federal employees in the US, many of which Trump removed from their jobs. As a result, VA will lose tens of thousands of jobs this year. This will be a big backlash against Trump.

Sherrill (left), Spanberger (right)

 

[Tender Branson]

Mikie Sherrill still has to win the primaries in 4 weeks, but she's ahead and has the most money left to spend.

In Virginia, the candidates of Ds and Rs are already set in stone, because no other candidates has the necessary signatures or withdrew.

 

[Tender Branson]

There are, I guess, several posters here from NJ and VA, who might know more about those races than I (an Austrian).

 

[Tender Branson]

There are also 2 US House Special Elections in the fall, because 2 incumbent Democrats died, but those will remain solidly Democratic (because the gerrymandered districts are so heavily Democratic).

House will remain 220-215 R/D (if there are no additional special elections until fall).

 

[Phys251]

NJ and VA are the only important state elections later this year in November in the US.

Both states usually see the incumbent US President's party perform really bad or/and elect the opposite party for governor.

This year, in New Jersey, Mikie Sherrill should win.

In Virginia, Abigail Spanberger should win.

While Sherrill would be the 2nd female governor of New Jersey (they had a Republican woman governor in the 1990s), Spanberger will be the first woman governor ever in Virginia.

Even if Spanberger loses (which is highly unlikely*), Virginia will still get a female governor, because the R candidate is also a woman.

*VA will definitely vote D this year, because it employs the most federal employees in the US, many of which Trump removed from their jobs. As a result, VA will lose tens of thousands of jobs this year. This will be a big backlash against Trump.

Sherrill (left), Spanberger (right)

Virginia is a slightly blue state. While all signs favor a Democratic win, it is no guarantee.

 

[Tender Branson]

Virginia is a slightly blue state. While all signs favor a Democratic win, it is no guarantee.

Trump lost it by 6% last year in a Republican wave year.

This year will see Trump-hostility in Virginia and NJ, so both states will go D by 10% or more.

 

[SkyChief]

I think democrats will do very well in mid-term elections. I predict democrat takeovers in both houses.

Probably a lot more seats will be won in the House than the Senate. Trump's bull-in-the-China-shop rampage ends in November 2026.

 

[CaughtInThe]

Have they learned how to extort, cheat, lie, steal and ignore the Constitution?

 

[Fletch]

I think democrats will do very well in mid-term elections. I predict democrat takeovers in both houses -

The House could easily flop because the current majority is so tiny, but would be curious to see how you think the senate will flip.

 

[Tender Branson]

I think democrats will do very well in mid-term elections. I predict democrat takeovers in both houses.

Probably a lot more seats will be won in the House than the Senate. Trump's bull-in-the-China-shop rampage ends in November 2026.

2026 could be a very D-year.

But in the Senate elections, Democrats have 3 big problems:

# they need a net gain of 4 seats to win a majority
# most Republican seats up for election are in ultra-Republican states that cannot be flipped
# Democrats have far more retirements of incumbents so far than Republicans

Besides, Georgia is currently D-held, but Trump won there. If Ds lose this seat, there's no way they can win the Senate.

Winning the House and doing well with Governors is definitely possible though.

 

[SkyChief]

The House could easily flop because the current majority is so tiny, but would be curious to see how you think the senate will flip.

GOP has only a 3-seat majority in the Senate, and that's not a very comfortable margin. There is a lot of opposition to Trump's policies, and many independent voters will vote for democrat candidates in protest. I think even many republicans will vote for democrats in protest. I personally know republicans who said that they would.

It's flawed logic, but that's how democracy works. Voters don't need to demonstrate that they are informed on the important issues in order to vote.

2026 could be a very D-year.

But in the Senate elections, Democrats have 3 big problems:

# they need a net gain of 4 seats to win a majority
# most Republican seats up for election are in ultra-Republican states that cannot be flipped
# Democrats have far more retirements of incumbents so far than Republicans

There's a lot of backlash against Trump right now and I think that will cause many independent and some republican voters to vote for democrats when, under more moderate leadership, they would vote Republican.

Besides, Georgia is currently D-held, but Trump won there. If Ds lose this seat, there's no way they can win the Senate.

Winning the House and doing well with Governors is definitely possible though.

True. a democrat win in the House would effectively limit Trump to only making Executive Orders, and the Supreme Court could (and would) attempt to block most of them.

 

[Tender Branson]

A new Emerson College poll confirms that Mikie Sherrill is very likely to win the D primary for Governor of New Jersey in about a month.

They didn't poll the general election yet though (= too early).

But Trump has a surprisingly high (= even) approval rating in NJ at 47-47 approval/disapproval. Considering he lost the state by 6 and usually Republicans are underwater by 15 or more there.

May 2025 New Jersey Poll: Sherrill and Ciattarelli Favorites for Party Nominations - Emerson Polling

New Jersey Voters Blame Trump, FAA, and Biden for Newark Airport Issues A new Emerson…Full Release & Results

emersoncollegepolling.com

 

[markdc]

NJ and VA are the only important state elections later this year in November in the US.

Both states usually see the incumbent US President's party perform really bad or/and elect the opposite party for governor.

This year, in New Jersey, Mikie Sherrill should win.

In Virginia, Abigail Spanberger should win.

While Sherrill would be the 2nd female governor of New Jersey (they had a Republican woman governor in the 1990s), Spanberger will be the first woman governor ever in Virginia.

Even if Spanberger loses (which is highly unlikely*), Virginia will still get a female governor, because the R candidate is also a woman.

*VA will definitely vote D this year, because it employs the most federal employees in the US, many of which Trump removed from their jobs. As a result, VA will lose tens of thousands of jobs this year. This will be a big backlash against Trump.

Sherrill (left), Spanberger (right)

Spamberger is one of the few Democrat politicians that I like personally.

Mark