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Neither Trump nor Sanders will remedy USA’s global trade deficits.

I'm Supposn

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Neither Trump nor Sanders will remedy USA’s global trade deficits.

Trump & Sanders at least acknowledge USA’s chronic trade deficits extents of harm to USA’s economy; no candidates dare propose explicit answers.

All nations, enterprises and people behave in what they perceive to be their there own best interests.

Trump and Sanders believe that can be changed by negotiation rather than changing USA’s trade policy so others’ best interests coincide with USA’s best economic interests.

Currently USA’s policies encourage enterprises to produce and/or import from other nations.

Both candidates believe we can negotiate for entities to behave against their best interests rather than changing USA’s trade policy. Both believe we can negotiate better and trump additionally believes he above all others is the master of “deal”.
They’re both wrong.

Refer to the paragraphs entitled “Trade balances affects upon their nations economies” within Wikipedia’s article entitled “Trade balances”
and/or
the Wikipedia article entitled “Import Certificates”.

Respectfully, Supposn
 

Dittohead not!

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Neither Trump nor Sanders will remedy USA’s global trade deficits.

Trump & Sanders at least acknowledge USA’s chronic trade deficits extents of harm to USA’s economy; no candidates dare propose explicit answers.

All nations, enterprises and people behave in what they perceive to be their there own best interests.

Trump and Sanders believe that can be changed by negotiation rather than changing USA’s trade policy so others’ best interests coincide with USA’s best economic interests.

Currently USA’s policies encourage enterprises to produce and/or import from other nations.

Both candidates believe we can negotiate for entities to behave against their best interests rather than changing USA’s trade policy. Both believe we can negotiate better and trump additionally believes he above all others is the master of “deal”.
They’re both wrong.

Refer to the paragraphs entitled “Trade balances affects upon their nations economies” within Wikipedia’s article entitled “Trade balances”
and/or
the Wikipedia article entitled “Import Certificates”.

Respectfully, Supposn

I'm not sure just what any president could do to fix the balance of trade problem. Congress makes the laws, not the president.
 

David_N

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What is bad about a trade deficit when a nation is sovereign in its own currency?
 

OrphanSlug

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Neither Trump nor Sanders will remedy USA’s global trade deficits...

That is because neither Trump nor Sanders (nor Clinton, nor Cruz, nor whoever else talking about this) understands why we have a trade deficit. This is the economic model we built as we shifted towards a heavy services and consumer debt based economy. You couple that with how we negotiate trade agreements with various nations and it stands to reason that we will be running a trade deficit for generations to come. The good news is our economic model can sustain this over the long term assuming we keep other elements of the GDP math in check.
 

Ntharotep

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You forgot the part where Clinton has no plan to do this either...
At least not one that is so much motherhood and apple pie feel good speech.
 

I'm Supposn

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That is because neither Trump nor Sanders (nor Clinton, nor Cruz, nor whoever else talking about this) understands why we have a trade deficit. This is the economic model we built as we shifted towards a heavy services and consumer debt based economy. You couple that with how we negotiate trade agreements with various nations and it stands to reason that we will be running a trade deficit for generations to come. The good news is our economic model can sustain this over the long term assuming we keep other elements of the GDP math in check.

OrphanSlug & DittoHead Not!, for a proposed remedy that would reverse trade deficits net detriment upon our GDP, refer to the Wikipedia topic “Import Certificates”.

OrphanSlug, your selected quote from Penn Jillette suggests that you may be a libertarian. I’m usually nodding in agreement when I begin to read or hear libertarians but then they continue beyond what I can accept and go an to actually advocating anarchy.

Throughout all levels of statutes and regulations within the USA’s legal systems there appear explicit descriptions of actions and transactions that would otherwise be legal; but legislators have determined that they are grievously detrimental to the reasonable rights of others and/or our society and were thus henceforth declared to be illegal.

I’m a proponent of a unilateral substantially market driven trade policy.
Refer to Wikipedia’s topic “Import Certificates”
or to
http://www.debatepolitics.com/econo...-deficit-increase-gdp-and-median-wage-11.html

Respectfully, Supposn
 
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I'm Supposn

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What is bad about a trade deficit when a nation is sovereign in its own currency?

David_N, refer to the paragraphs entitled "Trade Balances' effects upon their nation’s GDP"
within Wikpedia’s article entitled “Balance of trade”:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balance_of_trade#Trade_Balances.27_effects_upon_th eir_nation.E2.80.99s_GDP

It’s discussed within the thread
http://www.debatepolitics.com/economics/248997-trade-balances-effects-upon-their-nation-s-gdp-4.html

Respectfully, Supposn
 

Socrates1

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Neither Trump nor Sanders will remedy USA’s global trade deficits.

Trump & Sanders at least acknowledge USA’s chronic trade deficits extents of harm to USA’s economy; no candidates dare propose explicit answers.

All nations, enterprises and people behave in what they perceive to be their there own best interests.

Trump and Sanders believe that can be changed by negotiation rather than changing USA’s trade policy so others’ best interests coincide with USA’s best economic interests.

Currently USA’s policies encourage enterprises to produce and/or import from other nations.

Both candidates believe we can negotiate for entities to behave against their best interests rather than changing USA’s trade policy. Both believe we can negotiate better and trump additionally believes he above all others is the master of “deal”.
They’re both wrong.

Refer to the paragraphs entitled “Trade balances affects upon their nations economies” within Wikipedia’s article entitled “Trade balances”
and/or
the Wikipedia article entitled “Import Certificates”.

Respectfully, Supposn

Our trade deficit exploded with the Clinton's and NAFTA !
 

clownboy

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That is because neither Trump nor Sanders (nor Clinton, nor Cruz, nor whoever else talking about this) understands why we have a trade deficit. This is the economic model we built as we shifted towards a heavy services and consumer debt based economy. You couple that with how we negotiate trade agreements with various nations and it stands to reason that we will be running a trade deficit for generations to come. The good news is our economic model can sustain this over the long term assuming we keep other elements of the GDP math in check.

And why did we shift to that? Globalization and the leveling of the playing field. These deals that got us here have a "fairness" component and were negotiated with giving the other fellow a break (while screwing ourselves in the process).

Time to say - screw that.
 

OrphanSlug

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OrphanSlug & DittoHead Not!, for a proposed remedy that would reverse trade deficits net detriment upon our GDP, refer to the Wikipedia topic “Import Certificates”.

OrphanSlug, your selected quote from Penn Jillette suggests that you may be a libertarian. I’m usually nodding in agreement when I begin to read or hear libertarians but then they continue beyond what I can accept and go an to actually advocating anarchy.

Throughout all levels of statutes and regulations within the USA’s legal systems there appear explicit descriptions of actions and transactions that would otherwise be legal; but legislators have determined that they are grievously detrimental to the reasonable rights of others and/or our society and were thus henceforth declared to be illegal.

I’m a proponent of a unilateral substantially market driven trade policy.
Refer to Wikipedia’s topic “Import Certificates”
or to
http://www.debatepolitics.com/econo...-deficit-increase-gdp-and-median-wage-11.html

Respectfully, Supposn

Well, in some ways I lean Libertarian but I am far from being one. If anything I am just a social and economic liberal, but one who tends to dislike government reaction to crisis (hence the quote that is generally speaking spot on.) All that said I am not an isolationist nor someone who advocates anarchy.

The idea of "import certificates" does have some pluses and minuses. My suspicion though is the concept would lean heavy to larger organizations that have more means to obtain them open market speaking, and cause perhaps unbalance with smaller organizations that have adopted a business model reliant on imported goods and services. Perhaps more importantly someone has to set the cap, and presumably control the import certificate market otherwise it all becomes a private market (and we have too many examples of what happens when collections of wealth create private exchanges that tend to cause economic bubbles.)

The point of my comment though was due to our economic model we can sustain a trade deficit over the long term assuming several factors, mainly that it does not become a bubble itself representing an increasing negative number on the GDP math year on year. Eventually problems will arise if that becomes to massive for any economic model to absorb.
 

OrphanSlug

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And why did we shift to that? Globalization and the leveling of the playing field. These deals that got us here have a "fairness" component and were negotiated with giving the other fellow a break (while screwing ourselves in the process).

Time to say - screw that.

Long story, which means it did not happen overnight.

The trend of our path on diminishing agriculture and manufacturing to increasing our model of import and consumer debt took generations to occur. Some you can point to trade policy (which really means trade control) as a means to force domestic labor to compete intentionally. That is mainly what "Globalization" in our context, and in modern times, means. Taking economic models across the planet at various stages of development and means (where they are in relation to an industrial revolution point as just one example) and forcing them to compete irregardless of these differences. We have business models today that would not be plausible without reliance on government engaging in more of these trade agreements as a means to ensure continued use of off-shore labor at ridiculously low rates in comparison to our workforce in our economic model today.

It was always dubious to assume "fairness" or that the playing field would ever be level. World economics does not have every single nation on the same page (in any sense of the phrase.) So the answer is what manipulation gives the best impact to what business model. Some figured it out when we opened up Japan, others when we opened up China, some waited until NAFTA, and of course TPP will continue the trend.

That is what the raw economics of a services and consumer debt driven economic model demand, and it will be catastrophic to try to undo all of that quickly. It took a very long time to develop, and it will take a very long time to handle helping our diminished middle class (say 4th and perhaps 3rd income quintiles) as a result of it.
 

I'm Supposn

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... The idea of "import certificates" does have some pluses and minuses. My suspicion though is the concept would lean heavy to larger organizations that have more means to obtain them open market speaking, and cause perhaps unbalance with smaller organizations that have adopted a business model reliant on imported goods and services. Perhaps more importantly someone has to set the cap, and presumably control the import certificate market otherwise it all becomes a private market (and we have too many examples of what happens when collections of wealth create private exchanges that tend to cause economic bubbles.) ...

OrphanSlug, I have confidence in private independent and competitive enterprises. But I’m opposed to our current trade policy, (or lack of policy) that puts us at economic disadvantage to low-wage nations.
I also believe that even if brokerage houses would participate in the global market of transferable certificates, a good proportion of those transactions will be internet transactions.

[If used cars can be bought or sold over the internet, certainly the certificates can also be bought and sold. They differ only by their different dollar face values expressed in dollars and the U.S. Treasury’s certificate number to prevent fraud. A rancher in Wyoming will be able to obtain them as easily as will a Boeing aircraft executive in a West coast office building.]

The global market for Import certificates cannot be “cornered” because additional transferable certificates can be created whenever goods are exported from the USA. If the certificates market prices are sufficiently high, entrepreneurs will export USA goods that previously were marginally too expense for the global market.

Due to increased market price of the certificates they acquire (by paying the comparatively small federal fees), exporters of USA goods could afford to sell their exported goods at a small loss while regain their loss and make additional profit due to the values of the certificates they acquired.

Competitive pressures induce exporters to reduce their prices and gain additional sales volumes. Higher certificate prices behave as an indirect but effective subsidy of USA’s exported goods.

The reverse occurs when USA purchasers “balk” at higher prices for imported goods, the prices of certificates within the global markets will be reduced and consequentially prices of imported goods sold within the USA and the subsidies of USA exports will also be reduced.

Other than existing laws regarding fraud or counterfeiting, the transferable certificates require no special regulating by the government. The Global market for the transferable Import Certificates will be entirely market regulated.
There’s no such thing as certificate price that is too high or low.

Respectfully, Supposn
 
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I'm Supposn

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... The point of my comment though was due to our economic model we can sustain a trade deficit over the long term assuming several factors, mainly that it does not become a bubble itself representing an increasing negative number on the GDP math year on year. Eventually problems will arise if that becomes to massive for any economic model to absorb.

OrphanSlug, other than existing laws regarding fraud or counterfeiting, the transferable certificates require no special regulating by the government. The Global market for the transferable Import Certificates will be entirely market regulated.
There’s no such thing as certificate price that is too high or low.

I’ve never conceived of a negative annual GDP. That would require the nation to annually import more products than they domestically produced. How would they pay for all those products?

Respectfully, Supposn
 

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Neither Trump nor Sanders will remedy USA’s global trade deficits.

Trump & Sanders at least acknowledge USA’s chronic trade deficits extents of harm to USA’s economy; no candidates dare propose explicit answers.

All nations, enterprises and people behave in what they perceive to be their there own best interests.

Trump and Sanders believe that can be changed by negotiation rather than changing USA’s trade policy so others’ best interests coincide with USA’s best economic interests.

Currently USA’s policies encourage enterprises to produce and/or import from other nations.

Both candidates believe we can negotiate for entities to behave against their best interests rather than changing USA’s trade policy. Both believe we can negotiate better and trump additionally believes he above all others is the master of “deal”.
They’re both wrong.

Refer to the paragraphs entitled “Trade balances affects upon their nations economies” within Wikipedia’s article entitled “Trade balances”
and/or
the Wikipedia article entitled “Import Certificates”.

Respectfully, Supposn

The british empire called, they wanted their mercantilism back.
 

beerftw

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The trade deficit isn't a problem.

I do not usually agree with you or mmt, but you are right, trade deficits do not matter. They do not account money returning to the us outside trade, But for example we may be in a trade deficit with china, but china may buy goods from japan, who turns around and buys goods from america, who buys them from england, who invests heavily in american business.

In a global economy, the money does not stay static, it flows seemlessly between countries, and it even did in the days of gold standards and mercantilism. Back then the reason they feared deficits is they thought with more gold and silver going to x country than coming from x country, that they would run out of gold and silver.
 

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I do not usually agree with you or mmt, but you are right, trade deficits do not matter. They do not account money returning to the us outside trade, But for example we may be in a trade deficit with china, but china may buy goods from japan, who turns around and buys goods from america, who buys them from england, who invests heavily in american business.

In a global economy, the money does not stay static, it flows seemlessly between countries, and it even did in the days of gold standards and mercantilism. Back then the reason they feared deficits is they thought with more gold and silver going to x country than coming from x country, that they would run out of gold and silver.

BeerFTW, your statement regarding “money ….. it flows seamlessly between countries” does not equally apply to jobs and their wages purchasing powers.

Respectfully, Supposn

/////////////////////////
Transcript of 10:09 AM, May 18, 2016 post within
http://www.debatepolitics.com/economics/253134-import-certificates.html :

DRZ-400, annual trade deficits are ALWAYS a drag upon their nation’s production, (i.e. their GDP).
Consequentially that drags upon their numbers of jobs and their wage rates, which employees are dependent upon.
USA’s economy is highly sensitive to the purchasing powers of employees and additionally to their immediate dependents and the many commercial and other entities that are in aggregate among, if not the greatest drivers of our economy.

We all benefit from cheaper imported goods but that doesn’t compensate for trade deficits’ net detriment to our nation’s economy.

We cannot expect every person and enterprise to behave altruistically but we can draft our trade policy laws for our aggregate individuals and enterprises immediate and longer-term best interests converge with that of our entire nation’s economy.
 

beerftw

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BeerFTW, your statement regarding “money ….. it flows seamlessly between countries” does not equally apply to jobs and their wages purchasing powers.

Respectfully, Supposn

/////////////////////////
Transcript of 10:09 AM, May 18, 2016 post within
http://www.debatepolitics.com/economics/253134-import-certificates.html :

DRZ-400, annual trade deficits are ALWAYS a drag upon their nation’s production, (i.e. their GDP).
Consequentially that drags upon their numbers of jobs and their wage rates, which employees are dependent upon.
USA’s economy is highly sensitive to the purchasing powers of employees and additionally to their immediate dependents and the many commercial and other entities that are in aggregate among, if not the greatest drivers of our economy.

We all benefit from cheaper imported goods but that doesn’t compensate for trade deficits’ net detriment to our nation’s economy.

We cannot expect every person and enterprise to behave altruistically but we can draft our trade policy laws for our aggregate individuals and enterprises immediate and longer-term best interests converge with that of our entire nation’s economy.

In reality trade deficits are archaic, and consistently proven wrong method of measuring trade, If you want to return to an economic system devised by people who could not read or count, but burned countless women as witches because they had no idea why their crops died that year, than mercantilism is for you.

For the real world, trade occurs n a constant basis, ad for being so bad, we are better off now than ever, of course people who think the same as you think 600 women in a factory making nearly nothing was better off than highly skilled workers running that same factory.
 
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