• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

'Near certainty' about AGW.

Funny. You read on these threads by the local resident fake scientists on how more and more scientists are dissenting from AGW theory. You read how therre is no consensus despite all the studies and common sense telling us all otherwise.

Well, a draft of the IPCC AR5 is out, and the certainty than AGW is real is actually RISING- 95% confidence vs 90%.

Funny how hard the deniers have to fight reality to defend their position

Climate Panel Cites Near Certainty on Warming - NYTimes.com

The rythme is beginning to heat, when FA mag runs an article of this kind: Carter Roberts | Causes and Consequences of Earth Overshoot Day | Foreign Affairs

I am not sure, where it will go. But it is in the spotlight.
 
Oh-that's all there is to it? ......Whew talk about cherry picking and misleading.

The whole hypothesis commonly known as AGW hinges in temperature reconstruction for the past. Temperature reconstruction for periods beyond the temperature record rely on proxy data. In order to at try to validate proxy data, they had to compare the proxy data to the temperature record. It didn't match up.If they don't match up in th epresent , there is almost no chance they can be relied on for the past.

Please, write this information up and get your findings into PNAS! Scientists will be amazed at this information since it differs so much from established understanding. Maybe you can split your Nobel with LoP.
 
Oh-that's all there is to it? ......Whew talk about cherry picking and misleading.

The whole hypothesis commonly known as AGW hinges in temperature reconstruction for the past.
False.

Temperature reconstruction for periods beyond the temperature record rely on proxy data. In order to at try to validate proxy data, they had to compare the proxy data to the temperature record. It didn't match up.If they don't match up in th epresent , there is almost no chance they can be relied on for the past.

Also false. And tree rings aren't the only proxy.
 
Last edited:
More warmist lying.

[h=2]Fabricating Climate Doom – Part 3: Extreme Weather Extinctions Enron Style[/h] Posted on August 25, 2013 by Guest Blogger
Guest essay by Jim Steele, Director emeritus Sierra Nevada Field Campus, San Francisco State University
An Illusion of Extreme Climate Disruption
“While clearing larvae were starving in response to destruction of their hosts, survival in the outcrop was higher than previously recorded: an estimated 80% of larval groups survived.” [SUP]1 – [/SUP]C. D. Thomas, University of Leeds, United Kingdom
In Part 1, I documented how Camille Parmesan’s 1996 paper (heralded as proof that global warming was forcing butterflies northward and upward) had misread landscape change for climate change, how she failed to publish that “extinct” populations had now recovered and refused to provide the data to permit replication of her iconic paper. In Part 2, I documented how Parmesan hijacked the conservation success story of the Large Blue and the detailed conservation science of Jeremy Thomas in order to again blame global warming for expanding the range of endangered UK butterflies. In Part 3, I document how Parmesan kept half the evidence “off the books” to suggest extreme weather, supposedly caused by rising CO[SUB]2[/SUB], was causing population extinctions in the Sierra Nevada, and our top climate scientists then embraced and spread that myth.
Continue reading →:mrgreen:
 
More warmist lying.

[h=2]Fabricating Climate Doom – Part 3: Extreme Weather Extinctions Enron Style[/h] Posted on August 25, 2013by Guest Blogger
Guest essay by Jim Steele, Director emeritus Sierra Nevada Field Campus, San Francisco State University
An Illusion of Extreme Climate Disruption
“While clearing larvae were starving in response to destruction of their hosts, survival in the outcrop was higher than previously recorded: an estimated 80% of larval groups survived.” [SUP]1 – [/SUP]C. D. Thomas, University of Leeds, United Kingdom
In Part 1, I documented how Camille Parmesan’s 1996 paper (heralded as proof that global warming was forcing butterflies northward and upward) had misread landscape change for climate change, how she failed to publish that “extinct” populations had now recovered and refused to provide the data to permit replication of her iconic paper. In Part 2, I documented how Parmesan hijacked the conservation success story of the Large Blue and the detailed conservation science of Jeremy Thomas in order to again blame global warming for expanding the range of endangered UK butterflies. In Part 3, I document how Parmesan kept half the evidence “off the books” to suggest extreme weather, supposedly caused by rising CO[SUB]2[/SUB], was causing population extinctions in the Sierra Nevada, and our top climate scientists then embraced and spread that myth.
Continue reading →:mrgreen:

Do you read like one blog post every few days and the spam multiple threads with it all the time? You can't even seem to summarize them, much less interpret or contextual ice them at all.

You really are a propagandists dream.
 
Do you read like one blog post every few days and the spam multiple threads with it all the time? You can't even seem to summarize them, much less interpret or contextual ice them at all.

You really are a propagandists dream.

They speak for themselves. I hardly think two threads amounts to spamming. I prefer to discuss the data rather than attack my fellow posters. But of course the data are on my side, so that's easier for me.:peace
 
Do you read like one blog post every few days and the Spam multiple threads with it all the time? You Can't even seem to Summarize them, much Less interpret or contextual ice them at all.

You really are a propagandists dream.
Now you got Jack Hays' ClueLess routine.
He spams up the same link multiple times, Never even being able to excerpt it.
ie
Look at the last 5 posts on this page:
http://www.debatepolitics.com/middle-east/163453-myth-american-coup-iran-2.html#post1062207938

He Spammed up the SAME Article 7 times in the string (6 as 'rebuttal') without [even being able] excerpt it, until finally it was stopped/closed!
Jack Hays' posts are totally Lacking Any understanding, just Partisan Link Dumping.
Utterly Fraudulent, clownish posts.


EDIT to the below BS answer/Excuse by Jack.
He rarely excerpts ANYTHING. He doesn't know or understand what he's posting.
He just spams the Link up as an OP... AND then as 'rebuttal'/'back up' too! (without even cogent/relevant excerpt)
IOW, the utterly Clownish attempts of a Clueless partisan.
I've never seen such Intellectually Bankrupt non-responsive posting... ever.
 
Last edited:
Now you got Jack Hays' ClueLess routine.
He spams up the same link multiple times, Never even being able to ecerpt it.
ie
Look at the last 5 posts on this page:
http://www.debatepolitics.com/middle-east/163453-myth-american-coup-iran-2.html#post1062207938

He Spammed up the SAME Article 7 times without [even being able] excerpt it, until finally it was stopped!
Jack Hays' posts are totally Lacking Any understanding, just Partisan Link Dumping.
Utterly Fraudulent, clownish posts.

I repeated that link because other posters were refusing to engage the substance, preferring ad hominem attacks instead. Sound familiar?
 
Funny. You read on these threads by the local resident fake scientists on how more and more scientists are dissenting from AGW theory. You read how therre is no consensus despite all the studies and common sense telling us all otherwise.

Well, a draft of the IPCC AR5 is out, and the certainty than AGW is real is actually RISING- 95% confidence vs 90%.

Funny how hard the deniers have to fight reality to defend their position

Climate Panel Cites Near Certainty on Warming - NYTimes.com

I saw "IPCC AR 5 " started laughing, and it took a couple days for me to stop....

Yes, the IPCC who agreed with Al Gore's film so long as no one caught onto the BS.. The same IPCC who have been and continue to be dead wrong on every prediction they have made, are a political body and not a scientific one, and have shown no honesty what so ever...

Give me a break man...
 
I saw "IPCC AR 5 " started laughing, and it took a couple days for me to stop....

Yes, the IPCC who agreed with Al Gore's film so long as no one caught onto the BS.. The same IPCC who have been and continue to be dead wrong on every prediction they have made, are a political body and not a scientific one, and have shown no honesty what so ever...

Give me a break man...

Except for the fact that the authors are scientists, and have largely been proven correct over the yesrs, you nailed it.
 
I saw "IPCC AR 5 " started laughing, and it took a couple days for me to stop....

Yes, the IPCC who agreed with Al Gore's film so long as no one caught onto the BS.. The same IPCC who have been and continue to be dead wrong on every prediction they have made, are a political body and not a scientific one, and have shown no honesty what so ever...

Give me a break man...
Yes, but ( as evidenced by their justly deserved Nobel Prize) they are ambassodors for world peace! {LOL}
How long did it take you to stop laughing after that announcement?
 
I saw "IPCC AR 5 " started laughing, and it took a couple days for me to stop....

Yes, the IPCC who agreed with Al Gore's film so long as no one caught onto the BS.. The same IPCC who have been and continue to be dead wrong on every prediction they have made, are a political body and not a scientific one, and have shown no honesty what so ever...

Give me a break man...

You're easily amused.

Note though, that its is Gore's film that agreed with the IPCC, not the other way around. The IPCC is mostly a scientific body, and the science part is written by scientists. Its simple to just dismiss it out of hand for you because it avoids having to deal with issues, but I'll point out that the IPCC has been shown to be fairly correct in its analysis over the years, and the earth continues to become warmer, just as they predicted.

I dont recall seeing your brilliant rebuttal of the IPCC in the scientific literature, but please correct me if I'm wrong.
 
Except for the fact that the authors are scientists, and have largely been proven correct over the yesrs, you nailed it.

Scientists with a vested interest in the claims, and a history of exaggerating findings, to further their own agenda...

"We need to get some broad based support,
to capture the public's imagination...
So we have to offer up scary scenarios,
make simplified, dramatic statements
and make little mention of any doubts...
Each of us has to decide what the right balance
is between being effective and being honest."
- Prof. Stephen Schneider,
Stanford Professor of Climatology,
lead author of many IPCC reports
 
Yes, but ( as evidenced by their justly deserved Nobel Prize) they are ambassodors for world peace! {LOL}
How long did it take you to stop laughing after that announcement?

LOL, haven't stopped yet...ROFL
 
You're easily amused.

Note though, that its is Gore's film that agreed with the IPCC, not the other way around. The IPCC is mostly a scientific body, and the science part is written by scientists. Its simple to just dismiss it out of hand for you because it avoids having to deal with issues, but I'll point out that the IPCC has been shown to be fairly correct in its analysis over the years, and the earth continues to become warmer, just as they predicted.

I dont recall seeing your brilliant rebuttal of the IPCC in the scientific literature, but please correct me if I'm wrong.

Well two reasons for that.. One. I wasn't asked, and two, you don't actually READ any scientific literature.. All you do is cherry pick and post it on web forums..AS we have seen from you time and again, you don't actually read any more of it than is necessary to you..
 
BC the NYTimes is a non-biased reliable source..... :roll:

Challenge the source. Brilliant rebuttal. There are, BTW, multiple sources that sight a consensus in the scientific community.
 
Scientists with a vested interest in the claims, and a history of exaggerating findings, to further their own agenda...
News flash! Critics and deniers of AGW also have their own vested interests, their own histories of exaggerating and distorting facts, and their own agenda.


"We need to get some broad based support...."
Yeah, we've already been over this quote, in this very thread. http://www.debatepolitics.com/envir...0278-near-certainty-agw-2.html#post1062220854

Intentionally distorted quotes are a poor substitute for scientific evidence.
 
News flash! Critics and deniers of AGW also have their own vested interests, their own histories of exaggerating and distorting facts, and their own agenda.



Yeah, we've already been over this quote, in this very thread. http://www.debatepolitics.com/envir...0278-near-certainty-agw-2.html#post1062220854

Intentionally distorted quotes are a poor substitute for scientific evidence.

LOL, schneider's excuse is nonsense.. His quote is very clear... Why would the scientific method mean "soundbites"? What kind of circle talk nonsense is he claiming? That when he said this, that he meant something he didn't actually say?... BTW I used the one you cited...

“On the one hand we are ethically bound to the scientific method, in effect promising to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but& which means that we must include all the doubts, caveats, ifs and buts. On the other hand, we are not just scientists, but human beings as well. And like most people, we’d like to see the world a better place, which in this context translates into our working to reduce the risk of potentially disastrous climate change. To do that we have to get some broad-based support, to capture the publics imagination. That, of course, entails getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have. This double ethical bind which we frequently find ourselves in cannot be solved by any formula. Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest. I hope that means being both.”

-Stephen Schneider.


Exactly what part of that is telling us he means "sounbdbites" or out of context material?

LOL, nothing in that has a hidden meaning, and nothing in it gives the impression he tried to sell after the fact...

And his words were not distorted, he said what he said, and meant every word. That quote contains no ambiguity, no word play, nothing at all to give the impression he was referring to something else. He just had his own words used against him, and had to defend them, so he pulled the "I meant something else" ploy.. it's weak, and lame..

And a direct vested interest, meaning no AGW, no IPCC, no funding for various groups, organizations, think-tanks, and research. Versus a direct vested interest being what exactly? The same as the other, no funding for them.. It's not as if oil or coal is going to stop being used any time soon.. The alternatives can't cut it yet...
 
LOL, schneider's excuse is nonsense.. His quote is very clear... Why would the scientific method mean "soundbites"?
What's not immediately obvious is that the interviewer was a climate-change denier with a known agenda, who had clashed with Schneider. Simon took the quote out of context, and fabricated the part about "stretching the truth."

It's also fascinating how one twisted quote, from 1995, is somehow sufficient to shut down a few decades of climate science and research, performed independently by individuals and organizations across the world.


And a direct vested interest, meaning no AGW, no IPCC.... Versus a direct vested interest being what exactly?
Their own paychecks. Critics are often hired by auto manufacturers and conservative think tanks, they write books, they're funded by fossil fuel companies.

Do we see this with cancer research? High-energy physics? GMO crops? Mag-lev trains? What about non-scientific fields, like economics?

The reality is that the deniers just don't want to hear what's going on, and are so entrenched in their beliefs that they'll seize the tiniest scraps to maintain the denials.
 
What's not immediately obvious is that the interviewer was a climate-change denier with a known agenda, who had clashed with Schneider. Simon took the quote out of context, and fabricated the part about "stretching the truth."

It's also fascinating how one twisted quote, from 1995, is somehow sufficient to shut down a few decades of climate science and research, performed independently by individuals and organizations across the world.



Their own paychecks. Critics are often hired by auto manufacturers and conservative think tanks, they write books, they're funded by fossil fuel companies.

Do we see this with cancer research? High-energy physics? GMO crops? Mag-lev trains? What about non-scientific fields, like economics?

The reality is that the deniers just don't want to hear what's going on, and are so entrenched in their beliefs that they'll seize the tiniest scraps to maintain the denials.

The first part and your new improved excuse for schneider you just made up is refuted by your own rebuttal you previously posted and sent me too...

What I was telling the Discover interviewer, of course, was my disdain for a soundbite communications process that imposes the double ethical bind on all who venture into the popular media. To twist my openly stated and serious objections to the soundbite process into some kind of advocacy of exaggeration is a clear distortion. Moreover, not only do I disapprove of the “ends justify the means” philosophy of which I am accused, but, in fact have actively campaigned against it in myriad speeches and writings. Instead, I repeatedly advocate that scientists explicitly warn their audiences that “what to do” is a value choice as opposed to “what can happen” and “what are the odds,” which are scientific issues (e.g. p. 213 of Ref. 3). I also urge that scientists, when they offer probabilities, work hard to distinguish which are objective and which are subjective, as well as what is the scientific basis for any probability offered.

For such reasons I was honored to receive, in 1991, the AAAS/Westinghouse Award for the Public Understanding of Science. If the readers of APS News are confused by all this rancor and want a fair and balanced treatment of environmental scientific and policy debates, they can turn to the several National Research Council or IPCC assessments, in which words like “any,” “all,” “every,” and “entirely” are scarce, and citations are quoted or paraphrased in their proper context.

Sorry but your previously posted excuse from schneider I presume does NOT say "the denier I was being interviewed by" in fact it says "Discover interviewer"... Discover go denier all of a sudden? That's news to me, and basically everybody else...

Sorry but if you don't have a source or any evidence of that claim, and given your previously posted excuse says something else, I am going to assume you made it up just now...The second underlined part was were schneider showed his true nature.. he talked in circle and didn't say a thing either pro or con his previous statement, nor at any time in that meaningless drivel did he correct any error or address any misunderstandings.. All he did was ramble how he didn't mean it that way, and then dribble down his shirt for 30 seconds... He pulled a Happy Gilmore and you fell for it... ROFL..

And the rest was addressed in the post you cut off in your quote... Please don't cut out parts which address your points and then pretend they weren't there...
 
The first part and your new improved excuse for schneider you just made up is refuted by your own rebuttal...
*sigh*

It's not my "new and improved excuse," and I didn't make anything up. It's Schneider's own explanation from 1996. Do yourself a favor, and actually read it:

Don't Bet All Environmental Changes Will Be Beneficial

He was making a statement criticizing sound bites, and someone with an agenda distorted it to make it sound like he advocated "stretching the truth."


The second underlined part was were schneider showed his true nature.. he talked in circle and didn't say a thing either pro or con his previous statement, nor at any time in that meaningless drivel did he correct any error or address any misunderstandings....
Or not.

In the section you underlined, he's making a distinction between "facts" and "policy." He is not saying that "scientists should distort facts in order to push policy;" he's saying that when a scientist is on TV, they should try not to suggest that their policy recommendations are scientific facts, as well as to be clear about probabilities.

I guess I shouldn't be surprised that you're taking one statement out of context, failing to understand it, and using it to bash not just one scientist, but every scientist who happens to produce conclusions that you don't accept.
 
*sigh*

It's not my "new and improved excuse," and I didn't make anything up. It's Schneider's own explanation from 1996. Do yourself a favor, and actually read it:

Don't Bet All Environmental Changes Will Be Beneficial

He was making a statement criticizing sound bites, and someone with an agenda distorted it to make it sound like he advocated "stretching the truth."



Or not.

In the section you underlined, he's making a distinction between "facts" and "policy." He is not saying that "scientists should distort facts in order to push policy;" he's saying that when a scientist is on TV, they should try not to suggest that their policy recommendations are scientific facts, as well as to be clear about probabilities.

I guess I shouldn't be surprised that you're taking one statement out of context, failing to understand it, and using it to bash not just one scientist, but every scientist who happens to produce conclusions that you don't accept.

NO, now you see that might have worked had YOU not already posted the meat of the thing previously... WHat he is doing there is talking about the guy who used the quote, as he claimed unfairly...His original quote was to a Discover magazine reporter, that rebuttal you posted was to defend what another reporter did with the quote from that other interview.. See the difference?

He said the quote to discover reporter, another reporter or jouranlist used it and he claimed it was taken out of context. And that rebuttal you cited both times not only explains this but tries to defend the original quote. I can tell this from schneider saying the following...

"To bolster this charge he resurrected an oft-quoted, but usually out of context partial quote, from a Discover Magazine interview2 in 1989 in which I decried soundbite science and journalism by pointing out that nobody gets enough time in the media either to cover all the caveats in depth, (i.e., "being honest") or to present all the plausible threats (i.e., "being effective")."

Notice he states it's original source? Yes it was from discover magazine, and another "denier" as you called it found the quote and used it against him, and THAT is what he was referring to in the part you cited...

It seems SOMEONE didn't read it and someone did after all.. Except the you had the ones who did and did not switched, obviously...And as for your explanation of his circle talk, how do you get that from this...

"I repeatedly advocate that scientists explicitly warn their audiences that “what to do” is a value choice as opposed to “what can happen” and “what are the odds,” which are scientific issues"

LOL,is it in code? What that means in a nutshell is the usual, make it a moral choice and pull the heart strings. he is telling you in a very careful way, that he supports making the choice on what to say or how to say things regarding climate change, by making it a "value choice" rather than a simple case of this or that can happen...

And the last bit you just tried to claim I attacked all scientists who don't agree with me... Really? Emotional rantings do not help your case...
 
Last edited:
Scientists with a vested interest in the claims, and a history of exaggerating findings, to further their own agenda...

"We need to get some broad based support,
to capture the public's imagination...
So we have to offer up scary scenarios,
make simplified, dramatic statements
and make little mention of any doubts...
Each of us has to decide what the right balance
is between being effective and being honest."
- Prof. Stephen Schneider,
Stanford Professor of Climatology,
lead author of many IPCC reports

Oh, yes, all of the scientific organizations are conspiring to further their own agenda, which is... is... what again?

but, that's not a wacky conspiracy theory, no siree, no indeed. Now, where did I put that Reynolds Wrap?
 
Oh, yes, all of the scientific organizations are conspiring to further their own agenda, which is... is... what again?

but, that's not a wacky conspiracy theory, no siree, no indeed. Now, where did I put that Reynolds Wrap?

LOL, you think scientists are the modern saints now? They are somehow above all the petty self-interests that effect the rest of the world? if so than you really should get your tin foil hat on and quick.. Might want to put a label on it to warn people as well...Something like "Dangerously naive"...
 
LOL, you think scientists are the modern saints now? They are somehow above all the petty self-interests that effect the rest of the world? if so than you really should get your tin foil hat on and quick.. Might want to put a label on it to warn people as well...Something like "Dangerously naive"...

Please let us know what other discipline in science is actively working against the 'real' truth, and where basically all practitioners are deluded into thinking the opposite of what is real.

Or is climatology the only one? If so, why?
 
Back
Top Bottom