- Joined
- Mar 21, 2016
- Messages
- 12,130
- Reaction score
- 7,253
- Location
- Charleston, SC
- Gender
- Male
- Political Leaning
- Libertarian - Left
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Nate Silver and 538.com accurately predicted the results of every single state during the 2012 election. With their very first election forecast they give Trump a less than 20% chance of actually winning the race. This obviously puts him behind where Romney and McCain both were at the same point in their respective races. The last President to overcome a deficit close to this and win election was George H.W. Bush when he defeated Michael Dukakis. That was more of a Dukakis loss than a Bush win though. If you're counting on a Clinton meltdown I wouldn't. That seems like Trumps department.
Nate Silver and 538.com accurately predicted the results of every single state during the 2012 election. With their very first election forecast they give Trump a less than 20% chance of actually winning the race. This obviously puts him behind where Romney and McCain both were at the same point in their respective races. The last President to overcome a deficit close to this and win election was George H.W. Bush when he defeated Michael Dukakis. That was more of a Dukakis loss than a Bush win though. If you're counting on a Clinton meltdown I wouldn't. That seems like Trumps department.