• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!
  • Welcome to our archives. No new posts are allowed here.

Nate

Hawkeye10

Buttermilk Man
DP Veteran
Joined
Dec 29, 2015
Messages
45,404
Reaction score
11,746
Location
Olympia Wa
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Other
Sorry, while angry, uneducated white men is a large constituency; its not a sufficient enough constituency to win the White House.

THe Trump Train has many more cars than one.
 

kanabco

Banned
Joined
May 10, 2016
Messages
350
Reaction score
97
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Other
He got the 2012 election right, but missed 5-6 times already with Trump in the primaries..

He got both the 2012 and the 2008 "presidential" election right. Since primaries have very few established polls to use it would be much harder to model an outcome for 15 candidates. A number that was in constant flux.

Perhaps this confusion about Nate Silver stems from a misunderstanding of what an election modeler does. A modeler does not take opinion polls. A modeler evaluates all of the existing opinion polls and builds a statistical projection from them. Just the fact that he is attempting this early to project a winner suggests to me that it is entertainment and pays the bills. His serious work begins after the conventions.
 

Hawkeye10

Buttermilk Man
DP Veteran
Joined
Dec 29, 2015
Messages
45,404
Reaction score
11,746
Location
Olympia Wa
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Other
Trump is losing every single demographic other than white males. It is a one-car train.

We have not even had the Forth of July yet. If that is the case come Labor Day it will mean something, but not now. The point I was making, which escaped you, is that the Trump Coalition is broad and strange. Maybe he wins, maybe not, but I am smart enough to pay no attention to the polls at this point.
 

274ina

DP Veteran
Joined
Jun 14, 2012
Messages
4,415
Reaction score
641
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Other
brexit anyone!!! Lmao
 

Hawkeye10

Buttermilk Man
DP Veteran
Joined
Dec 29, 2015
Messages
45,404
Reaction score
11,746
Location
Olympia Wa
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Other
The truth is that 2016 is a paradoxical prediction year, with variables aplenty. On one hand, political demographics and Trump’s unwillingness to create (until recently) a nominally competent campaign seems to have set the result in the Democrats’ favor. On the other, the fact that a huge number of voters deeply dislike both candidates — and 20 percent of the electorate is currently opting for neither — increases volatility, especially if a third-party candidate like Libertarian Gary Johnson can sustain double digits nationwide.

“My gut is that there is going to be a fairly significant third- and fourth-party vote, and people undervoting the top of the ballot,” Silver said — and that’s why Clinton is leading recent polls with a modest 43 percent of the vote to Trump’s godawful 37 percent.
The unusually large number of undecideds and third-party voters this year threatens to throw off his model, Silver allowed: “That’s a big thing that we’re looking at.”
But Silver’s confidence wasn’t much shaken by his big Trump miss — if anything, it’s only reinforced his belief in the superiority of his math-driven methods over shoot-from-the-lip punditry.
k

Nate Silver is happy to be wrong - POLITICO

So Silver just blew it bigtime, he tells us all about why old models dont apply this year, and yet he is more confident than ever in his models??!!
 

kanabco

Banned
Joined
May 10, 2016
Messages
350
Reaction score
97
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Other
Nate Silver is happy to be wrong - POLITICO

So Silver just blew it bigtime, he tells us all about why old models dont apply this year, and yet he is more confident than ever in his models??!!

Readers:
What Browser do you use?
If it is IE then you have this thing called "favorites" you can click on.
If it is Firefox then they call the same thing "bookmarks".
Which ever you use do the capture now. It is important to locate and define those who offer intellectual input and those that do not.
After the election weed them out.. separate the wheat from the chaff, the men from the boys, the right from the wrong, and in so doing develop your own affirmation index.
Be my guest.
 

Hawkeye10

Buttermilk Man
DP Veteran
Joined
Dec 29, 2015
Messages
45,404
Reaction score
11,746
Location
Olympia Wa
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Other
Readers:
What Browser do you use?
If it is IE then you have this thing called "favorites" you can click on.
If it is Firefox then they call the same thing "bookmarks".
Which ever you use do the capture now. It is important to locate and define those who offer intellectual input and those that do not.
After the election weed them out.. separate the wheat from the chaff, the men from the boys, the right from the wrong, and in so doing develop your own affirmation index.
Be my guest.



Readers:
What Browser do you use?
If it is IE then you have this thing called "favorites" you can click on.
If it is Firefox then they call the same thing "bookmarks".
Which ever you use do the capture now. It is important to locate and define those who offer conversation and good cheer and those who do not, because just as life is too short to suffer bad food and cocktails it is also too short to suffer pricks.
Be my guest.
 

kanabco

Banned
Joined
May 10, 2016
Messages
350
Reaction score
97
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Other
Readers:
What Browser do you use?
If it is IE then you have this thing called "favorites" you can click on.
If it is Firefox then they call the same thing "bookmarks".
Which ever you use do the capture now. It is important to locate and define those who offer conversation and good cheer and those who do not, because just as life is too short to suffer bad food and cocktails it is also too short to suffer pricks.
Be my guest.


Wow... I give up. You and Governess are just too tough.
Retiring to my best Cognac to watch a rerun of Breaking Bad.
Too tough.
 

Casper

Banned
DP Veteran
Joined
Dec 14, 2015
Messages
26,734
Reaction score
11,520
Location
Elsewhere
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Independent
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Nate Silver and 538.com accurately predicted the results of every single state during the 2012 election. With their very first election forecast they give Trump a less than 20% chance of actually winning the race. This obviously puts him behind where Romney and McCain both were at the same point in their respective races. The last President to overcome a deficit close to this and win election was George H.W. Bush when he defeated Michael Dukakis. That was more of a Dukakis loss than a Bush win though. If you're counting on a Clinton meltdown I wouldn't. That seems like Trumps department.
Not real hard to make these predictions. First off the majority of states are solidly Red or Blue meaning those Electoral College votes will go to their respective candidates. That leaves the Swing States, among them is Florida, if Trump does not pull in Florida he is toast and the odds of him doing so or pulling in a majority of the other Swing states are slim to none. Trump simply does not have the likeability to pull in more than he already has which only the GOP nomination and he did not even get a strong majority among conservatives. Trump has almost no chance of winning the election and we need to face the fact that Hillary Clinton will be the next President of the United States of America. May God Help us all.
 

Hawkeye10

Buttermilk Man
DP Veteran
Joined
Dec 29, 2015
Messages
45,404
Reaction score
11,746
Location
Olympia Wa
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Other
Wow... I give up. You and Governess are just too tough.
Retiring to my best Cognac to watch a rerun of Breaking Bad.
Too tough.

I look forwards to running into you again.

You R FUN.
 
Top Bottom