Nate Silver: GOP has 2-in-3 Chance of Taking House

[Dav]

G.O.P. Has 2-in-3 Chance of Taking House, Model Forecasts - NYTimes.com

I've been waiting for this forecast for quite a while. The result isn't surprising, though tbh I'd expected even better numbers for the GOP.

Republicans have a two-in-three chance of claiming a majority of House seats in November, the FiveThirtyEight forecasting model estimates. And their gains could potentially rival or exceed those made in 1994, when they took a net of 54 seats from the Democrats.

In one sense, a strong performance by the Republicans on Nov. 2 is to be expected. The opposition party typically gains seats – on average, about 20 in midterm elections since 1994 – after the other party wins the White House, as the Democrats did in 2008. Nevertheless, both the magnitude of the Republicans’ potential gains, and the rapidity with which the political balance is poised to shift back to them after two cycles in which Democrats won nearly every competitive election, is unusual by recent standards. According to the model, Republicans have about a one-in-three chance of winning at least 54 seats, their total in 1994, and nearly a one-in-four chance of gaining at least 60.

On average, the model predicts a net gain of 45 to 50 seats for Republicans. But there are 90 districts, the model finds, in which either party still has at least a 10 percent chance of prevailing, and it is on a district-by-district basis that each party will learn of their fate on Nov. 2.

Should be an interesting November.

 

[Slartibartfast]

Admittedly not news I welcome, but Nate is quite good with the numbers.