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You put the inevitable in simple terms. One thing that has to mentioned is that NK artillery has a range that reaches to the Seoul Metropolitan Area. That area is populated by more than 20 million people, which is about 40% of South Korea's 50 million people.
yeah, but you can't assume even a majority of those people being dead unless you assume a large number of WMD strikes get through.... which I would put down as a "possible but really unlikely". Citizens of Seoul know where to go, have gas masks, and so forth - what we found in WWII was that bombardment was really good at messing up above-ground buildings, but only occasionally effective at wiping out populaces. USFK and ROK counterbattery will be able to effectively degrade/destroy DPRK LRA positions once they are known, which means really we have to get Seoul through the first 48-72 hours or so. I mean, we know where all this stuff is... it's just that there is so damn much of it.
It would be ugly. It would be really ugly. We would absolutely 100% win. But it would be ugly. Far better to let them collapse internally.