N. Korea vs. The Rest of the World

[Albert Di Salvo]

I disagree with your assesment of China. They have nothing to gain by backing the DPRK if it becomes the aggressor. China is too intertwined economically with the rest of the world, and its economy is shaky at best right now. To go to war against the West over NK would amount to economic suicide.

How did the PRC react to the DPRK's sinking of the ROK frigate Cheonam? How did China react to the NK shelling of the South Korean island? The Chinese reaction is inconsistent in both cases with your view.

 

[tlmorg02]

How did the PRC react to the DPRK's sinking of the ROK frigate Cheonam? How did China react to the NK shelling of the South Korean island? The Chinese reaction is inconsistent in both cases with your view.

The Chinese condemned both actions. How is that contrary to my view?

 

[Albert Di Salvo]

The Chinese condemned both actions. How is that contrary to my view?

The Chinese didn't condemn the DPRK. Moreover, the Chinese prevented any effective action on either action at the UN Security Council.

You are making the same mistake America has made for over twenty years. You assume China will become a responsible stakeholder in the international system as it rises. This is a miscalculation. If China was a responsible stakeholder it wouldn't be helping Pakistan's nuclear program expand production. That's something America specifically refused to do despite Pakistani requests to receive the same treatment from America as does India.

 

[LaughAtTheWorld]

The Chinese didn't condemn the DPRK. Moreover, the Chinese prevented any effective action on either action at the UN Security Council.

You are making the same mistake America has made for over twenty years. You assume China will become a responsible stakeholder in the international system as it rises. This is a miscalculation. If China was a responsible stakeholder it wouldn't be helping Pakistan's nuclear program expand production. That's something America specifically refused to do despite Pakistani requests to receive the same treatment from America as does India.

I've said this 4 times. See my earlier posts.

 

[ludahai]

I disagree with your assesment of China. They have nothing to gain by backing the DPRK if it becomes the aggressor. China is too intertwined economically with the rest of the world, and its economy is shaky at best right now. To go to war against the West over NK would amount to economic suicide.

Then you have little understanding of the geopolitical thinking of the Chinese elite...

 

[Albert Di Salvo]

Gates Warns of North Korea Missile Threat to U.S.

By ELISABETH BUMILLER and DAVID E. SANGER

Published: January 11, 2011


BEIJING — Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates warned Tuesday that North Korea was within five years of being able to strike the continental United States with an intercontinental ballistic missile, and said that, combined with its expanding nuclear program, the country “is becoming a direct threat to the United States.”

Mr. Gates is a former director of the C.I.A., and his statement, officials said, reflected both a new assessment by American intelligence officials and his own concern that Washington had consistently underestimated the pace at which the North was developing nuclear and missile technologies.

It is unclear how recent the new assessment may be, but Mr. Gates’ remarks, made just an hour after he met with Hu Jintao, China’s president, may have been partly intended to convince China that the Obama administration no longer regards the North as a concern only in the region. The administration has increasingly put pressure on China to try to persuade North Korea, a longtime China ally, to give up its nuclear weapons program.

“The Chinese are always talking about their “core interests” and threats they may have to respond to,” said one American official deeply involved in North Korea strategy. “They needed to hear that we have a few, too....”

Continue at http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/12/world/asia/12military.html?_r=2&hp

 

[ricksfolly]

Gates Warns of North Korea Missile Threat to U.S.

By ELISABETH BUMILLER and DAVID E. SANGER

Published: January 11, 2011


BEIJING — Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates warned Tuesday that North Korea was within five years of being able to strike the continental United States with an intercontinental ballistic missile, and said that, combined with its expanding nuclear program, the country “is becoming a direct threat to the United States.”

Gates is probably saying this to convince the brass in China to take the NK threat seriously, but it won't work because they know more about their own back yard than him.

ricksfolly

 

[Albert Di Salvo]

Gates is probably saying this to convince the brass in China to take the NK threat seriously, but it won't work because they know more about their own back yard than him.

ricksfolly

You may be right. Gates got the cold shoulder in China.

 

[ricksfolly]

You may be right. Gates got the cold shoulder in China.

Unfortunately, generals aren't very good diplomats. Do it or else!!... Only works with third world poor countries, especially if you sweeten the pot with a few billion.

ricksfolly

 

[Albert Di Salvo]

Unfortunately, generals aren't very good diplomats. Do it or else!!... Only works with third world poor countries, especially if you sweeten the pot with a few billion.

ricksfolly

What is disturbing about the PLA is that there seems to be some uncertainty about the ability of the civilians in the Politburo to control the generals. There have been a series of incidents over the last ten years in which the generals say one thing and the civilians say something else. This is an issue that is rarely discussed.

 

[LaughAtTheWorld]

The People's Liberation Army is massed along the Yalu and Tumen Rivers on the DPRK border. If it appears the North Koreans will be defeated, and ROK forces move north, the Chinese will act decisively just as they did in November of 1950. Let there be no doubt about that. And this time the Chinese will not be throwing flesh against steel.

Yes, you are right that Chinese forces are massed on that border, but I have explained 2 times in this thread that they are there because NK might go crazy and attack them. The Russians aren't so trusting either as they have similar amounts of troops massed in the NK-Russian border too. You might think that they are there to help NK, but given Wikileak's documentation about China's attitude to NK and that China and Russia has so much to lose politically, economically, diplomatically and morally, casts doubt whether China and Russia will help.
1) Political damages: The country leadership would look bad to its own citizens, not to mention international condemnation, which would severely affect the country’s leadership’s political power
2) Economical damages: Helping NK in case of war would result not only in severe backlash, but the high possibility of sanctions, which would affect both nations severely as both Russia’s natural resource-driven and China’s export-driven economies depend heavily on imports and exports. Undoubtedly, there would be much economical damages
3) Diplomatic damages: They would lose face in international worldview, not only losing their credibility (which both nations are in dire need of), but their bargaining chips as they would be shown as weak supporting NK
4) Morale damages: Most citizens of both countries are very decent and know much about NK-SK situation. If they find out that their country is supporting NK, then the morale base of the country would be destabilized (Note: I am aware that China publically supports NK, but in case of war, well, the citizens would see enough)

I went back to my records and will give the chronology of key events
1945: Separation of NK and SK
1946: NK's communist party (Korean's Worker's Party KWP) inaugurated. Kim-Il-Sung installed as head
1948: Democratic People's Republic of Korea proclaimed (NK) Soviet troops withdraw
1950: Korean War (6.25 war as called in Korea as it began in the 6th month, 25 th day) begins
1953: Armistice temporarily ends Korean War, costs millions of lives
1980: Kim-Jong-Il moves up party ladder
1991: NK, SK joins UN
1992: NK agrees to inspections by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), but over next two years refuses access to sites of suspected nuclear weapons production
1994: Death of Kim-Il-Sung. Kim-Jong-Il comes at leader, but doesn't get presidential title (the dead Kim-Il-Sung still has it). NK agrees to freeze nuclear programme in return for 5 billion dollars worth of free fuel and two nuclear reactors
2000: Summit and general thawing of relations as Kim-Jong-Il and Kim-Dae-Jung meet
2002: Bush gives "axis of evil" status to NK
2003: Nuclear tensions. US claims NK admitted to nukes, stopped oil shipments to NK. In November, NK reactivates Yongbyon reactor, inspectors thrown out
2003 January: NK withdraws from Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)
2003 April: NK, US, China begin discussions in Beijing, first discussion since start of nuclear crisis
2003 July: NK claims has enough plutonium to make bombs
2003 August: Six-party talks in Beijing begins, but fail to bridge diplomatic gap
2004: Third round of six-party talks ends, NK pulls out scheduled September round
2005 Feburuary: NK claims built nukes for self-defense
2005 September: Fourth round of six-party talks concludes. Nk gives up weapons in return for aid and security guarantees, later demands civilian nuclear reactor
2006 July: Nk fires long range missiles, several medium-range missiles, starts international outcry. Although the Taepodong-2 is said to hit US, US claims it crashes shortly after take-off
2006 October: NK claims to test nuclear weapon for the first time
2007 February: Six-party talks resume on Beijing. On last minute, NK agrees to close main nuclear reactor in exchange for fuel aid
2007 October: Nk commits to disable three nuclear facilities and all of its nuclear program by year-end
2008 February: Lee-Myung-Bak inaugurated as SK president, takes hard-line stance against NK
2008 March-April: NK-SK relations deteriorate sharply. NK expels SK managers in Kaesung industrial park, test fires short-range missiles and accuse MB (Lee-Myung-Back) of sending SK warships in Northern waters
2008 June: NK makes declaration of its nuclear assets
2008 July: NK soldiers shoot SK woman in Mount Kumgang special tourism area
2008 October: US removes NK from list of countries sponsoring terrorists. NK provides full access to nuclear sites
2008 December: NK slows down denuclearization as US suspends energy aid. US's suspension came as breakdown of talks
2009 April: NK launches supposed "satellite" but many suspect testing of long-range missile technology. After much criticism, NK walks out of six-party talks
2009 May: NK claims to have successfully carried out second underground nuclear test, draws protests from US AND CHINA ALONG WITH RUSSIA. (Emphasis on capitalized words). NK also announces it no longer recognizes armistice
2009 June: NK proposes reopening talks about Kaesong industrial park. Kim-Jong-Il’s eldest son Kim-Jong-Nam confirms reports and speculations about the third son Kim-Jong-Un succeeding power
2009 October: NK indicates willingness to resume bilateral and multilateral talks after Kim-Jong-Il meets with Chinese premier Wen-Jiabao
2010 January: NK fires artillery into disputed maritime border (this is not the Yeonpyong incident). SK returns fire
2010 March: NK sinks the SK frigate Cheonan, killing 46 sailors
2010 mid-year: Rapid steps made by NK to ensure Kim-Jong-Un’s succession
2010 October: NK fires artillery into Yeonpyong island killing 2 civilians and 2 marines.

 

[Albert Di Salvo]

Yes, you are right that Chinese forces are massed on that border, but I have explained 2 times in this thread that they are there because NK might go crazy and attack them. The Russians aren't so trusting either as they have similar amounts of troops massed in the NK-Russian border too. You might think that they are there to help NK, but given Wikileak's documentation about China's attitude to NK and that China and Russia has so much to lose politically, economically, diplomatically and morally, casts doubt whether China and Russia will help.
1) Political damages: The country leadership would look bad to its own citizens, not to mention international condemnation, which would severely affect the country’s leadership’s political power
2) Economical damages: Helping NK in case of war would result not only in severe backlash, but the high possibility of sanctions, which would affect both nations severely as both Russia’s natural resource-driven and China’s export-driven economies depend heavily on imports and exports. Undoubtedly, there would be much economical damages
3) Diplomatic damages: They would lose face in international worldview, not only losing their credibility (which both nations are in dire need of), but their bargaining chips as they would be shown as weak supporting NK
4) Morale damages: Most citizens of both countries are very decent and know much about NK-SK situation. If they find out that their country is supporting NK, then the morale base of the country would be destabilized (Note: I am aware that China publically supports NK, but in case of war, well, the citizens would see enough)

I went back to my records and will give the chronology of key events
1945: Separation of NK and SK
1946: NK's communist party (Korean's Worker's Party KWP) inaugurated. Kim-Il-Sung installed as head
1948: Democratic People's Republic of Korea proclaimed (NK) Soviet troops withdraw
1950: Korean War (6.25 war as called in Korea as it began in the 6th month, 25 th day) begins
1953: Armistice temporarily ends Korean War, costs millions of lives
1980: Kim-Jong-Il moves up party ladder
1991: NK, SK joins UN
1992: NK agrees to inspections by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), but over next two years refuses access to sites of suspected nuclear weapons production
1994: Death of Kim-Il-Sung. Kim-Jong-Il comes at leader, but doesn't get presidential title (the dead Kim-Il-Sung still has it). NK agrees to freeze nuclear programme in return for 5 billion dollars worth of free fuel and two nuclear reactors
2000: Summit and general thawing of relations as Kim-Jong-Il and Kim-Dae-Jung meet
2002: Bush gives "axis of evil" status to NK
2003: Nuclear tensions. US claims NK admitted to nukes, stopped oil shipments to NK. In November, NK reactivates Yongbyon reactor, inspectors thrown out
2003 January: NK withdraws from Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)
2003 April: NK, US, China begin discussions in Beijing, first discussion since start of nuclear crisis
2003 July: NK claims has enough plutonium to make bombs
2003 August: Six-party talks in Beijing begins, but fail to bridge diplomatic gap
2004: Third round of six-party talks ends, NK pulls out scheduled September round
2005 Feburuary: NK claims built nukes for self-defense
2005 September: Fourth round of six-party talks concludes. Nk gives up weapons in return for aid and security guarantees, later demands civilian nuclear reactor
2006 July: Nk fires long range missiles, several medium-range missiles, starts international outcry. Although the Taepodong-2 is said to hit US, US claims it crashes shortly after take-off
2006 October: NK claims to test nuclear weapon for the first time
2007 February: Six-party talks resume on Beijing. On last minute, NK agrees to close main nuclear reactor in exchange for fuel aid
2007 October: Nk commits to disable three nuclear facilities and all of its nuclear program by year-end
2008 February: Lee-Myung-Bak inaugurated as SK president, takes hard-line stance against NK
2008 March-April: NK-SK relations deteriorate sharply. NK expels SK managers in Kaesung industrial park, test fires short-range missiles and accuse MB (Lee-Myung-Back) of sending SK warships in Northern waters
2008 June: NK makes declaration of its nuclear assets
2008 July: NK soldiers shoot SK woman in Mount Kumgang special tourism area
2008 October: US removes NK from list of countries sponsoring terrorists. NK provides full access to nuclear sites
2008 December: NK slows down denuclearization as US suspends energy aid. US's suspension came as breakdown of talks
2009 April: NK launches supposed "satellite" but many suspect testing of long-range missile technology. After much criticism, NK walks out of six-party talks
2009 May: NK claims to have successfully carried out second underground nuclear test, draws protests from US AND CHINA ALONG WITH RUSSIA. (Emphasis on capitalized words). NK also announces it no longer recognizes armistice
2009 June: NK proposes reopening talks about Kaesong industrial park. Kim-Jong-Il’s eldest son Kim-Jong-Nam confirms reports and speculations about the third son Kim-Jong-Un succeeding power
2009 October: NK indicates willingness to resume bilateral and multilateral talks after Kim-Jong-Il meets with Chinese premier Wen-Jiabao
2010 January: NK fires artillery into disputed maritime border (this is not the Yeonpyong incident). SK returns fire
2010 March: NK sinks the SK frigate Cheonan, killing 46 sailors
2010 mid-year: Rapid steps made by NK to ensure Kim-Jong-Un’s succession
2010 October: NK fires artillery into Yeonpyong island killing 2 civilians and 2 marines.

Thanks for your post. Very good.

If the Kim Dynasty in the DPRK succeeds in making the transition to Kim Jong Un the North Korean nightmare will go on into the indefinite future. If the Kim Dynasty fails to making the transition of power to Kim Jong Un, there will be chaos in NK and probable regime collapse unless the NK military seizes power.

If there is chaos in NK, and no one is in effective control, SK will have to act by moving troops north. But China will not permit this unless the ROK ends its alliance with America. What do you think?

 

[American]

Democratic People's Republic of Korea :lamo

 

[LaughAtTheWorld]

Democratic People's Republic of Korea :lamo

Well, it's their official name. It's just like calling the Department of Defense "Department of Defense", right? When it actually wages war. Or calling the Department of Justice "Department of Justice" when its most formidable arm, the FBI has committed well-documented, numerous human and civil rights abuses? That's just the way the world is

 

[tlmorg02]

China's main goal is to protect China, just as the US's is to protect the US. Many think that China fears the collapse of the DPRK because that would put the US on their doorstep, but lets be honest. With todays technology, our presence in both South Korea and Japan, the NK is a weak barrier at best. China's main reasons for preserving the DPRK is to prevent the influx of refugees and to hold over the US, due to the US's support of Taiwan. The DPRK holds no other value for them, other than a consumer of Chinese goods, and if NK goes off the edge and starts war, China is unlikely to hurt its international standing by aiding them.

 

[LaughAtTheWorld]

China's main goal is to protect China, just as the US's is to protect the US. Many think that China fears the collapse of the DPRK because that would put the US on their doorstep, but lets be honest. With todays technology, our presence in both South Korea and Japan, the NK is a weak barrier at best. China's main reasons for preserving the DPRK is to prevent the influx of refugees and to hold over the US, due to the US's support of Taiwan. The DPRK holds no other value for them, other than a consumer of Chinese goods, and if NK goes off the edge and starts war, China is unlikely to hurt its international standing by aiding them.

Yes, you are once again correct in many ways. China fears that the estimated 5+ million refugees may flee to their country if a war starts. Even if we unite peacefully, then the many North Koreans who either fear or hate SK may flee nevertheless.
Also, the only reason why China still supports NK is because it could act as a hidden card or buffer zone against SK and US
However, NK places lots of stain on the Chinese economy as it doesn't consume much of its products and is a drain as it gets millions of energy tonnes for free as 'aid'.
Otherwise, there's no valid reason why China supports NK. As demonstrated by Wikileaks, China is tired of NK's antics

 

[TheDemSocialist]

North Korea either
A needs to get with the rest of the world
B become a respectable state open up become more transparent
C dissolve into South Korea
D just end the retarded and failed ideology of Juche

 

[ricksfolly]

North Korea either
A needs to get with the rest of the world
B become a respectable state open up become more transparent
C dissolve into South Korea
D just end the retarded and failed ideology of Juche

Or stay what they are, ineffectual blow hards. We don't need anymore whipping boys, just closure of some kind.

ricksfolly

 

[LaughAtTheWorld]

Or stay what they are, ineffectual blow hards. We don't need anymore whipping boys, just closure of some kind.

ricksfolly

If they stay that way, then I say that we should not give them aid and starve them. Let China give aid to them. Soon, even the Chinese will stop giving the millions of tons of rice to NK for free when it puts a dent on their economy, especially in a time of ricing food prices

 

[Иосиф Сталин]

Let the US fight against North Korea. Russia and China have more important things to do, hehe.

Yes, yes, let the US wage another war.

 

[LaughAtTheWorld]

Let the US fight against North Korea. Russia and China have more important things to do, hehe.

Yes, yes, let the US wage another war.

Clearly an idiot. You do know what will happen if war happens, don't you Mr. Stalin?

 

[cpwill]

Seoul will get wiped out by Long Range Artillery and North Korea will cease to exist.

 

[cpwill]

Yes, you are once again correct in many ways. China fears that the estimated 5+ million refugees may flee to their country if a war starts. Even if we unite peacefully, then the many North Koreans who either fear or hate SK may flee nevertheless.
Also, the only reason why China still supports NK is because it could act as a hidden card or buffer zone against SK and US
However, NK places lots of stain on the Chinese economy as it doesn't consume much of its products and is a drain as it gets millions of energy tonnes for free as 'aid'.
Otherwise, there's no valid reason why China supports NK. As demonstrated by Wikileaks, China is tired of NK's antics

NKorea keeps the US tied down and off balance. In return for tons of Rice, China is able to keep the US from being able to project more force into the South Pacific, which is where they are attempting to consolidate a hegemon status. They do the same thing in the ME and in South America.

 

[LaughAtTheWorld]

Seoul will get wiped out by Long Range Artillery and North Korea will cease to exist.

You put the inevitable in simple terms. One thing that has to mentioned is that NK artillery has a range that reaches to the Seoul Metropolitan Area. That area is populated by more than 20 million people, which is about 40% of South Korea's 50 million people.

 

[ludahai]

You put the inevitable in simple terms. One thing that has to mentioned is that NK artillery has a range that reaches to the Seoul Metropolitan Area. That area is populated by more than 20 million people, which is about 40% of South Korea's 50 million people.

I have been hearing for years that South Korea has been considering moving it's capital further south... is there anything to that?