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My Personal Take: China Will Attack Taiwan

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My personal take is that China will eventually attack Taiwan. It is now preparing to attack Taiwan with it's increased military spending, which, they are trying to hide their true high levels of military spending. The chinese like to follow Sun Tzu's Art of War. So, to understand Chinese military thinking, it is important to know Sun Tzu's philosophies on war and once you understand Chinese military thinking, you can also understand their intentions in Asia by examining what they are doing, before they actually launch an attack.
 

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In my opinion, you are wrong. China isn't going to attack Taiwan. Taiwan will choose to become (or is it remain ) part of China. If China continues to reform. If China's economy continues to grow. Taiwan will eventually rejoin China.

China's military build up is a natural part of their growth. In my view, China looks to the United States as a model for much of their policies. The United States uses its military as a political and economic tool, not just for defense. They see this and want the same ability.
 

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ManOfTrueTruth said:
My personal take is that China will eventually attack Taiwan. It is now preparing to attack Taiwan with it's increased military spending, which, they are trying to hide their true high levels of military spending. The chinese like to follow Sun Tzu's Art of War. So, to understand Chinese military thinking, it is important to know Sun Tzu's philosophies on war and once you understand Chinese military thinking, you can also understand their intentions in Asia by examining what they are doing, before they actually launch an attack.
What are they doing?
 
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jfuh said:
What are they doing?
I could very well be wrong. But China is trying to hide their true levels of military spending. Why? Well, I think it is because they have the intention to attack while trying to develop a false sense of security to the US before they attack. The Chinese are not afraid to fight the US, but they will try to be smart about it when they do attack. I think their goal is to achieve complete and total surprise. Just like in Korea, the US was finding Chinese troops in North Korea, before the Chinese intervention, but MacArthur and American leaders dismissed the idea of a Chinese military intervention because they thought troop levels were much lower and that China was merely rattling their sabers. China also did it's best to continue to keep the illusion that Chinese troop levels were much lower in North Korea to US leaders in order to achieve surprise. I see alot of similarities of American leader's attitudes towards Chinese actions in Tawain.
 
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Let me reference Sun Tzu: "All warfare is based on deception." I think the Chinese could be trying to create a deception that their military spending is lower than what it actually really is.
 

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ManOfTrueTruth said:
I could very well be wrong. But China is trying to hide their true levels of military spending. Why? Well, I think it is because they have the intention to attack while trying to develop a false sense of security to the US before they attack. The Chinese are not afraid to fight the US, but they will try to be smart about it when they do attack. I think their goal is to achieve complete and total surprise. Just like in Korea, the US was finding Chinese troops in North Korea, before the Chinese intervention, but MacArthur and American leaders dismissed the idea of a Chinese military intervention because they thought troop levels were much lower and that China was merely rattling their sabers. China also did it's best to continue to keep the illusion that Chinese troop levels were much lower in North Korea to US leaders in order to achieve surprise. I see alot of similarities of American leader's attitudes towards Chinese actions in Tawain.

Militarily the PRC is light years behind the US. The PRC is very much worried about any conflict with the US because unlike the Korean conflict now they have much to loose, and vice versa. Regardless of what theology the PRC uses with deception against the US, just in terms of military technology and deep blue capacity, the US truly is second to none. As long as the US does not set foot on Chinese soil the PRC would have absolutely no hope to survive. As for the case that the US does set foot on Chinese soil, it's up in the air as to what would happen. Keep in mind of the deception of true US military strength ie various black programs.
Also the loss of the Korean war is not due to deception, but underestimating the enemy. Got too cocky with after just winning WWII and being in the same exact mentality as before the war, underestimating the Enemy.
 
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jfuh said:
Militarily the PRC is light years behind the US. The PRC is very much worried about any conflict with the US because unlike the Korean conflict now they have much to loose, and vice versa. Regardless of what theology the PRC uses with deception against the US, just in terms of military technology and deep blue capacity, the US truly is second to none. As long as the US does not set foot on Chinese soil the PRC would have absolutely no hope to survive. As for the case that the US does set foot on Chinese soil, it's up in the air as to what would happen. Keep in mind of the deception of true US military strength ie various black programs.
Also the loss of the Korean war is not due to deception, but underestimating the enemy. Got too cocky with after just winning WWII and being in the same exact mentality as before the war, underestimating the Enemy.

I seriously doubt that the US would try to set foot on Chinese soil. However, I think it wise for US military planners to take the threat towards Taiwan seriously. Not to mention, I believe that their is a genuine belief and desire for China to use force if necessary in order to re-unite Taiwan with China, I would take these threats seriously rather than as just saber rattling. Chinese military leaders understand, that technologically, they are behind the US, so it is my belief that they would resort to Sun Tzu's tatics in much the same way that they did when they intervened in Korea. The Chinese military achieved surprise by formenting deception of weakness and low troop numbers and it worked very well. I think the Chinese government and military will follow the principles of Sun Tzu's Art of War before attempting to attack Taiwan.
 

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ManOfTrueTruth said:
I seriously doubt that the US would try to set foot on Chinese soil. However, I think it wise for US military planners to take the threat towards Taiwan seriously. Not to mention, I believe that their is a genuine belief and desire for China to use force if necessary in order to re-unite Taiwan with China, I would take these threats seriously rather than as just saber rattling. Chinese military leaders understand, that technologically, they are behind the US, so it is my belief that they would resort to Sun Tzu's tatics in much the same way that they did when they intervened in Korea. The Chinese military achieved surprise by formenting deception of weakness and low troop numbers and it worked very well. I think the Chinese government and military will follow the principles of Sun Tzu's Art of War before attempting to attack Taiwan.

The US only supports the current status quo. Any unanomous change to that status quo by either side would result in US involvement (if the PRC takes actions) or uninvolvement (If the ROC takes steps towards independence).
Right now with the pathetic excuse for a president Chen in office in Taiwan as the leader, and his desperation to draw more public support his only card is to play pro-independence. The PRC uses linguistic technicalities as representing China to then institute that Taiwan rightfully belongs to the Communists (which it does not).
As for Sun Tzu strategies, they are good tactics, but they are not what would bring victory. N. Korea opened it's gates to the Red Chinese since day one. Taiwan does not want the Reds setting foot on any part of the island, also the PRC lacks the amphibious ability to launch such an offensive. It is unlikly that such an attack would be any bit successful.
 
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jfuh said:
The US only supports the current status quo. Any unanomous change to that status quo by either side would result in US involvement (if the PRC takes actions) or uninvolvement (If the ROC takes steps towards independence).
Right now with the pathetic excuse for a president Chen in office in Taiwan as the leader, and his desperation to draw more public support his only card is to play pro-independence. The PRC uses linguistic technicalities as representing China to then institute that Taiwan rightfully belongs to the Communists (which it does not).
As for Sun Tzu strategies, they are good tactics, but they are not what would bring victory. N. Korea opened it's gates to the Red Chinese since day one. Taiwan does not want the Reds setting foot on any part of the island, also the PRC lacks the amphibious ability to launch such an offensive. It is unlikly that such an attack would be any bit successful.

China has sought and acquired Sunburn anti-ship missles, which are designed to hit American aircraft carriers. Why would they seek out such weapons?
 

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ManOfTrueTruth said:
China has sought and acquired Sunburn anti-ship missles, which are designed to hit American aircraft carriers. Why would they seek out such weapons?
Same case, why does the US still have Trident missle subs? I don't know how useful such weaponry is against the war on terrorists.
 

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jfuh said:
Same case, why does the US still have Trident missle subs? I don't know how useful such weaponry is against the war on terrorists.

Maybe because there are a lot more things going on in the world then just one. Because there is a war on terror does not mean that all other tents or securities are folded up and burned. Why not get rid of all green and white camo.. The war on terror is in a desert region? Becasue you have to be ready for any and all threats.

I think Chinas getting pissed at Taiwan. I think they Taiwan may possibly be getting ready to ask it's people to vote if it wants it's independance. And this I thinkis irritating the sh1t out of the chinese...
 

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Calm2Chaos said:
Maybe because there are a lot more things going on in the world then just one. Because there is a war on terror does not mean that all other tents or securities are folded up and burned. Why not get rid of all green and white camo.. The war on terror is in a desert region? Becasue you have to be ready for any and all threats.

I think Chinas getting pissed at Taiwan. I think they Taiwan may possibly be getting ready to ask it's people to vote if it wants it's independance. And this I thinkis irritating the sh1t out of the chinese...
My post was in response to manoftruetruth, utilizing his same reasoning.
Now with regards to your post. Not all terrorists are in the desert unless you are claiming that all terrorists are in the middle east.
PRC is not pissed at Taiwan, the PRC is pissed at the DPP party of the ROC. Translation, the People's republic of China is pissed at the current rulling party of the Republic of China. Actually so are the rest of the residents of Taiwan with a few exceptions of fundamentalist pan greens in Taiwan. Fundamentalists that care nothing but for political control and corruption.
 
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jfuh said:
My post was in response to manoftruetruth, utilizing his same reasoning.
Now with regards to your post. Not all terrorists are in the desert unless you are claiming that all terrorists are in the middle east.
PRC is not pissed at Taiwan, the PRC is pissed at the DPP party of the ROC. Translation, the People's republic of China is pissed at the current rulling party of the Republic of China. Actually so are the rest of the residents of Taiwan with a few exceptions of fundamentalist pan greens in Taiwan. Fundamentalists that care nothing but for political control and corruption.

Corruption is everywhere, including in the US government. It doesn't matter which government is in power, their will always be corruption.
 

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ManOfTrueTruth said:
Corruption is everywhere, including in the US government. It doesn't matter which government is in power, their will always be corruption.
A very sad truth isn't it?
 

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ManOfTrueTruth said:
Let me reference Sun Tzu: "All warfare is based on deception." I think the Chinese could be trying to create a deception that their military spending is lower than what it actually really is.
Everyone studies Sun Tzu, not just the Chinese.
 
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American said:
Everyone studies Sun Tzu, not just the Chinese.
Sun Tzu came from Chinese civilization and thus has a big impact on Chineses Military thinking. Here is an article that puts credenance to my belief that China is preparing to launch a surprise attack on Taiwan. It is my view that China is using Sun Tzu's tatics in order to initiate and obtain surprise and ultimately a victory:

Pentagon Official Warns of Chinese Buildup By FOSTER KLUG, Associated Press Writer
51 minutes ago



WASHINGTON - China's military buildup changes the delicate balance of power in the Taiwan Strait, forcing the United States to adapt its military strategies, a top Pentagon official said Thursday.

Peter Rodman, assistant secretary of defense for international security policy, said China has more than 700 short-range ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan, with numbers increasing at about 100 missiles a year.

"When there are zero ballistic missiles opposite the Taiwan Strait, and a few years later there are 700, that's a change in the status quo," Rodman told reporters after testifying before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, an advisory panel created by Congress. "Our job is to maintain a military balance in the region, and we take our responsibility seriously."

The United States opposes changes in the China-Taiwan relationship unless both sides agree to it, Rodman said. But, he testified, China's "military buildup changes that status quo and requires us to adapt to the new situation, as we are doing." He did not elaborate.

China's buildup is believed to be intended to back up threats to attack Taiwan, the self-ruled island that the communist Beijing government claims as its own territory. The two sides split in 1949 amid civil war.

On Thursday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang said China is open about its military spending and has increased military exchanges with other countries.

But Rodman said China has yet to explain a military budget with an average annual growth rate Beijing puts at nearly 16 percent from 1994 to 2004. China's reported 2006 military budget is about $35 billion.

These numbers, Rodman said, fail to capture what the Pentagon estimates is the true scope of the growth. He said the 2006 figure could be as much as $105 billion, making China Asia's largest defense spender.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060316/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/us_china_taiwan
 

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ManOfTrueTruth said:
Sun Tzu came from Chinese civilization and thus has a big impact on Chineses Military thinking. Here is an article that puts credenance to my belief that China is preparing to launch a surprise attack on Taiwan. It is my view that China is using Sun Tzu's tatics in order to initiate and obtain surprise and ultimately a victory:



http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060316/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/us_china_taiwan
You do know that Sun Tzu is required reading at West Point? The very fact that this article is present at all pretty much puts the breaks on your argument of "surprise".
 
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jfuh said:
You do know that Sun Tzu is required reading at West Point? The very fact that this article is present at all pretty much puts the breaks on your argument of "surprise".

Of course I know that, it still doesn't mean that China won't attack. The Chinese can still obtain surprise even with the presence of this article.
 

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ManOfTrueTruth said:
Of course I know that, it still doesn't mean that China won't attack. The Chinese can still obtain surprise even with the presence of this article.
Yes but not of their military strength or capacity.
As for a full frontal assualt unlikly. The way things are going now internally in Taiwan, it's almost at the point of implosion.
Then again I really don't want to be a red chinese neither.
 
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jfuh said:
Yes but not of their military strength or capacity.
As for a full frontal assualt unlikly. The way things are going now internally in Taiwan, it's almost at the point of implosion.
Then again I really don't want to be a red chinese neither.

What sort of things are going on internally in Taiwan?
 

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ManOfTrueTruth said:
What sort of things are going on internally in Taiwan?
Drive away from fiscal responsibilities, accomplishing anything that is ever beneficial to the public, and a continuous drive towards "independence" for the sole purpose of politics. All of which is nosediving the economy.
Should things gon on the way they are today, we don't need to wait for an invasion from the mainland, we're going to disintegrate ourselves.
 
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