My case for Paul Ryan as the GOP nominee in 2016

[jonny5]

Yeah, but mr. Ryan has not passed a budget yet has he?

They dont have to. Remember they passed a funding bill through end of 2017, within a few days of him taking over. The budget is set until the next congress takes over.

 

[Redress]

The problem is that you don't know Trump's true strength because the party is fractured 2 1/2 ways, with Kasich in only as a spoiler. I wish the RNC would just promise to lobby the VP slot for Kasich and please go away now.

Head to head polling is flawed at this point in time for the reason you point out and more. I was however responding to some one who picked a single poll, to show what the poll average and direction is(those are more meaningful than a single poll).

Then you have to assume a certain number of Bernie supporters will go to Trump. That bloc of voters is as disillusioned with the "establishment", and the shafting of Mom and Dad's as Trump's voters are. Where are they going to go? They certainly all aren't staying home.

The number of Sanders voters who will go to any republican candidate is pretty small(and matched by those going the other way, republican to democrat). The real issue come November could be who gets their voters out to the polls.

I'd hold fire until April 26th when the Rust Belt votes. That's a lot of delegates and on the heels of that is Indiana May 3rd.

My theory is that the Rust Belt votes favor Trump because Cruz's overwhelming win in Utah places him a ways away from the values of the once industrial states where life is about paying the bills.

Trump has to reach 1237 before the convention, or his chances of winning the nomination get vanishingly small. It is not just about winning states, but winning delegates from those states, and Trump is playing catchup on the tactical aspect of doing so. His blowing Colorado, while not a lot of delegates where available, Trump needed at least some of those delegates, and failed miserably. Let's let 538 explain it: Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado | FiveThirtyEight

Colorado elects 34 potentially pledged delegates through seven district conventions and a statewide convention. (The state GOP decided not to hold a primary or caucus with a presidential preference vote this year.) But instead of putting together a top-notch convention team, Trump’s campaign was a mess: In one case, Trump delegates weren’t even on the ballot to be voted on by a district convention; in two others, Trump’s campaign didn’t provide his potential supporters with a list of pro-Trump delegates, so they didn’t know who to vote for.

The end result: Trump won zero delegates from Colorado; Ted Cruz won 34.

Those are not mistakes you can afford when you are in a tight race(and it is tight...the race is not against Cruz, but to 1237, and he fell back. To continue from the above linked article:

So where does that leave Trump?

A few weeks ago, FiveThirtyEight asked a panel of delegate “experts” how many delegates they expected Trump to win in the remaining contests. Our panel, on average, had Trump garnering 513 pledged delegates after the March 15 primaries, to add to the 694 he had already won.2 In that scenario, Trump would fall just short of 1,237, but he’d be close enough that he could still win the nomination on the first ballot at the GOP convention by securing the support of some of the 100+ unpledged delegates.

But the point of the panel wasn’t to predict the exact number of delegates Trump would win overall, or in each state. The idea was to get a sense of the pace Trump would have to set to reach 1,237. The panel, for example, had Trump winning 25 delegates in Wisconsin, on average. Trump won only six delegates there, putting him behind the pace he needs to hit to clinch the nomination. The panel, on average, projected Trump to win seven delegates from Colorado. That he came up empty-handed means he’s even further off pace.

More and more, the likelihood is for a contested convention. Now, I am pretty sure all the wheeling and dealing will be done long before the convention starts, but still a contested convention. In that scenario, Trump almost certainly does not get the nomination. What all that means is that the rust belt will vote for Trump pretty heavily, but it is unlikely it will be enough to get Trump the nomination(and much of the rust belt has already voted)

 

[chuckiechan]

Trump has to reach 1237 before the convention, or his chances of winning the nomination get vanishingly small. It is not just about winning states, but winning delegates from those states, and Trump is playing catchup on the tactical aspect of doing so

Colorado illustrated the power of delegate farming in all of it's ugly beauty. Trump has made himself the victim to everyone BUT the establishment! LOL. I swear Trump planned it. Meanwhile a million Colorado voters are going, "WTF?" LOL

There's a talking head from the RNC national committee that says:

Republican National Committee member Randy Evans said Wednesday that Donald Trump would likely be able to secure the Republican nomination if he captures anything more than 1,100 delegates, short of the 1,237 delegates needed for a simple majority.

"If Donald Trump exceeds 1,100 votes, he will become the nominee even though he may not have 1,237," Evans said on MSNBC's "Morning Joe."

Either way, IMO the RNC is a dying breed, and it either needs to adapt or be replaced. I'm disturbed by the "anyone but Trump" replacing "beat Hillary" as the Republican battle cry.

However, I'm equally disturbed that Trump doesn't have an "organization". Yet on the other hand, that very term screams "Establishment". Who but "Establishment" candidates spends a million dollars a week on overhead to win an election? No wonder billionaires run this country!

 

[calamity]

Sure, his positions seem a bit extreme for some, but he has been known to work with the other side to get things done. When you are negotiating, the best tactic is to ask for way more than what you want, then bargain down to what you are actually aiming for. Ronald Reagan was good at doing that, and I believe that Paul Ryan is also adept at that game. Fact is, with an electorate divided down the middle, you are going to have to make compromises. "My way or the highway" won't work, because there is no real mandate at this time, one way or the other.

And face it. Neither Cruz nor Trump have a snowball's chance of winning the election this year. The GOP's best chance is a contested convention, where Ryan ends up the nominee.

Discussion?

I can live with Ryan. But, can the Republicans who are voting Trump and Cruz?

 

[upsideguy]

Ya, I just saw that. Interesting. This means that he thinks he can work with Trump and Cruz.

This also means that the establishment has busted yet another plan.

...or, more likely, he realizes that running for Prez as a Republican in this cycle is a fool's errand...

 

[upsideguy]

Colorado illustrated the power of delegate farming in all of it's ugly beauty. Trump has made himself the victim to everyone BUT the establishment! LOL. I swear Trump planned it. Meanwhile a million Colorado voters are going, "WTF?" LOL

There's a talking head from the RNC national committee that says:

Either way, IMO the RNC is a dying breed, and it either needs to adapt or be replaced. I'm disturbed by the "anyone but Trump" replacing "beat Hillary" as the Republican battle cry.

However, I'm equally disturbed that Trump doesn't have an "organization". Yet on the other hand, that very term screams "Establishment". Who but "Establishment" candidates spends a million dollars a week on overhead to win an election? No wonder billionaires run this country!

,,,, the was no Republican vote in Colorado this cycle. So, the "voters" will not be disappointed.

 

[chuckiechan]

the was no Republican vote in Colorado this cycle. So, the "voters" will not be disappointed.

You forgot to add "Because they didn't vote, they were not voters, thus voters were not disappointed".
But thanks for clarifying the meaning of "voters", Mr. Clinton.

 

[SHOOTER]

Sure, his positions seem a bit extreme for some, but he has been known to work with the other side to get things done. When you are negotiating, the best tactic is to ask for way more than what you want, then bargain down to what you are actually aiming for. Ronald Reagan was good at doing that, and I believe that Paul Ryan is also adept at that game. Fact is, with an electorate divided down the middle, you are going to have to make compromises. "My way or the highway" won't work, because there is no real mandate at this time, one way or the other.

And face it. Neither Cruz nor Trump have a snowball's chance of winning the election this year. The GOP's best chance is a contested convention, where Ryan ends up the nominee.

Discussion?

so you are for throwing millions of voters votes out in favor of a republican hack,yes you sure are a republican conservative,any one that thanks the RNC can elect anyone for president is living in their own world.
man only 23% of all reg voters are republican,and they all seem to thank thank like you the people's votes do not count ,it is all about the party,what an American your are,man you are crazy,i am a vet also ,i wonder just what army you served in,just throw out the votes and let the rnc choose,this is not 1972 and that will not happen.
i still can not believe you are for throwing out millions of American's votes, in favor of a REPUBLICAN HACK LIKE RYAN.

run don run

 

[Hawkeye10]

...or, more likely, he realizes that running for Prez as a Republican in this cycle is a fool's errand...

I am astounded by how many people dont understand how easy Hillary is to beat.

 

[upsideguy]

I am astounded by how many people dont understand how easy Hillary is to beat.

...as I am astonished by how many people think the Republicans have a shot given 1) the electoral college is stacked against them; 2) the demographics are stacked against them (they have done nothing to fix the hispanic and black problem articulated in the autopsy; 3) how disorganized they are in 2016 and 4) the Trump wildcard (what happens if he is denied the nomination. (do you need cites for all of this to help understand exactly how much of an outlier your view is?)

Sorry, Cleveland has better odds in the 2017 Super Bowl than any Republican emerging from Cleveland has of seeing the White House in 2017 (unless they are invited or go on the public tour).

 

[reinoe]

However, I'm equally disturbed that Trump doesn't have an "organization". Yet on the other hand, that very term screams "Establishment". Who but "Establishment" candidates spends a million dollars a week on overhead to win an election? No wonder billionaires run this country!

Having organization does not mean someone is establishment. Ron Paul was not establishment. His team's organization was really good.

 

[Hawkeye10]

...as I am astonished by how many people think the Republicans have a shot given 1) the electoral college is stacked against them; 2) the demographics are stacked against them (they have done nothing to fix the hispanic and black problem articulated in the autopsy; 3) how disorganized they are in 2016 and 4) the Trump wildcard (what happens if he is denied the nomination. (do you need cites for all of this to help understand exactly how much of an outlier your view is?)

Sorry, Cleveland has better odds in the 2017 Super Bowl than any Republican emerging from Cleveland has of seeing the White House in 2017 (unless they are invited or go on the public tour).

If you fall for the product of the Corporate Class Propaganda Machine the R's will always lose, then after the election they so often give excuses for why they were wrong. Over the last years the R's have been winning more than they are losing, the D's are significantly more the minority party than they were when we first elected Obama.

 

[upsideguy]

If you fall for the product of the Corporate Class Propaganda Machine the R's will always lose, then after the election they so often give excuses for why they were wrong. Over the last years the R's have been winning more than they are losing, the D's are significantly more the minority party than they were when we first elected Obama.

I just love this fantasy of the "Corporate Class Propaganda Machine".... seems like you need to bring that one over to Conspiracy Theories. If you deal in the world of facts, research, polls, history and experts, you know that the R's are not going to win in 2016.

The "R" win in low turnout elections in off year's when they are the party out of power. There is nothing surprising about that. They just can't win the White House until they change their world view and platform, there should be nothing surprising about that for those that are informed...

I agree with you that Hillary is an extremely weak candidate, with very high net negatives...fortunately for the Dems, the Reps are so screwed up they are willing to put up a candidate with ridiculous net negatives

 

[Mycroft]

I just love this fantasy of the "Corporate Class Propaganda Machine".... seems like you need to bring that one over to Conspiracy Theories. If you deal in the world of facts, research, polls, history and experts, you know that the R's are not going to win in 2016.

The "R" win in low turnout elections in off year's when they are the party out of power. There is nothing surprising about that. They just can't win the White House until they change their world view and platform, there should be nothing surprising about that for those that are informed...

I agree with you that Hillary is an extremely weak candidate, with very high net negatives...fortunately for the Dems, the Reps are so screwed up they are willing to put up a candidate with ridiculous net negatives

Reagan, Bush and Bush were not really all that long ago, so your contention that they just can't win the White House until they change their world view and platform is baseless, though in order to win the White House nowadays they certainly need to combat the dumbing down of the American voter.

 

[Hawkeye10]

I just love this fantasy of the "Corporate Class Propaganda Machine".... seems like you need to bring that one over to Conspiracy Theories. If you deal in the world of facts, research, polls, history and experts, you know that the R's are not going to win in 2016.

The "R" win in low turnout elections in off year's when they are the party out of power. There is nothing surprising about that. They just can't win the White House until they change their world view and platform, there should be nothing surprising about that for those that are informed...

I agree with you that Hillary is an extremely weak candidate, with very high net negatives...fortunately for the Dems, the Reps are so screwed up they are willing to put up a candidate with ridiculous net negatives

And yet on my Google "which party will win the 2016 presidential election" 3 of the top 9 selections predict an R win of the POTUS chair. Clearly you have some information sourcing problems.

RE "Corporate Class Propaganda Machine" journalists tend to work for corporations, it is the corporate propaganda in the form of ads that pays their salaries, and we learned during Watergate to follow the money.

 

[Redress]

And yet on my Google "which party will win the 2016 presidential election" 3 of the top 9 selections predict an R win of the POTUS chair. Clearly you have some information sourcing problems.

Trump logic: 1 in 3 is a win!

 

[Hawkeye10]

Trump logic: 1 in 3 is a win!

1 in 3 is not 0% is the point, but thanks for trying.

 

[justabubba]

1 in 3 is not 0% is the point, but thanks for trying.

i believe this is the only correct thing you have posted within this entire thread

 

[Hawkeye10]

i believe this is the only correct thing you have posted within this entire thread

That is critical information, thanks so much for letting us know.

 

[justabubba]

That is critical information, thanks so much for letting us know.

your speculation is so helpful, i thought i should return the favor

 

[Hawkeye10]

your speculation is so helpful, i thought i should return the favor

I tend to spend time in the basement playing, make sure to join me, but we are supposed to try to be adults up here.


Thank you.

 

[justabubba]

I tend to spend time in the basement playing, make sure to join me, but we are supposed to try to be adults up here.


Thank you.

i have no idea about what you are referring to

 

[Hawkeye10]

i have no idea about what you are referring to

I am getting off here, sometimes I see old timers leading us newbies into temptation, and I am trying to keep my nose clean.

 

[Redress]

1 in 3 is not 0% is the point, but thanks for trying.

Well, that was very good. You counter by saying something no one is refuting. Next time, try posting the sky is blue. Might be good for partial credit.

 

[Hawkeye10]

Well, that was very good. You counter by saying something no one is refuting. Next time, try posting the sky is blue. Might be good for partial credit.

Look, I am too busy to connect all of the dots.

Keep up or not, the choice is yours.

Bye.