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11/16/18
Most Russians are satisfied with their financial situation but do not expect their country’s economic and political circumstances to improve in the next year, according to a state-funded survey on “social well-being.” The VTsIOM pollster’s so-called “social well-being index” calculates the respondents’ outlooks on the political and economic prospects of the country. Its authors say the index fell significantly twice, in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis and during mass anti-Kremlin protests in 2012. New results published on Friday show nearly all indicators dropping from last year, including a 20-point slide in social optimism and attitudes towards the political climate, as well as a slide of 15 points in economic outlook. The only indicator to increase is the share of those who are satisfied with their own life — by three points — while estimates of the country’s development have remained unchanged for two years. “These findings are alarming,” VTsIOM expert Oleg Chernozub said. “Our compatriots believe things are getting worse both politically and economically.” “From the public’s point of view, it was much worse only after the 2009 crisis and during the [2012] Bolotnaya protests,” he said. VTsIOM conducted the poll among 1,600 participants on Oct. 23.
Since we know that Americans just voted against economic success and confidence, this is probably good news for Putin. If things were going well economically in Russia is when he should worry. People don't like economic success and confidence as we just saw in the midterms.
Seconded!!!Please, keep your partisan US BS in the appropriate forums.
The Moscow Times | Most Russians Are Pessimistic About Political and Economic Future — Poll
Ordinary Russians have good reasons to be pessimistic. Many of their nations financial, technical, and military sectors are under widespread sanctions which will be increasing. OPEC is about to cut oil production which will depress the price of a Russian barrel of oil. Moscow needs an oil price of $100 brl. to support its economy and fund its military adventures. The costs of subsidizing Crimea and bankrolling its invasion in eastern Ukraine are increasing. Moscow is also on the hook for rebuilding the war-shattered Syria.
And before our Russian propagandist delivers disinformation, VTsIOM is Russia's oldest and most trusted polling agency. It is owned and managed by the Russian government (one of the very few things they do fairly well).
The Moscow Times | Most Russians Are Pessimistic About Political and Economic Future — Poll
Ordinary Russians have good reasons to be pessimistic. Many of their nations financial, technical, and military sectors are under widespread sanctions which will be increasing. OPEC is about to cut oil production which will depress the price of a Russian barrel of oil. Moscow needs an oil price of $100 brl. to support its economy and fund its military adventures. The costs of subsidizing Crimea and bankrolling its invasion in eastern Ukraine are increasing. Moscow is also on the hook for rebuilding the war-shattered Syria.
And before our Russian propagandist delivers disinformation, VTsIOM is Russia's oldest and most trusted polling agency. It is owned and managed by the Russian government (one of the very few things they do fairly well).
It's a mis-spell, better said a mis-word. OPEC says it will increase oil output.1. How does reducing supply of a commodity decrease its market price?
Of course it won't.:roll:2. Syria - Russia is not going to re-build Syria.
I'm sure that most Russians do that, it's a success of Kremlin propaganda neatly skirting around the reason for those sanctions.Overall, as you know, it's the West which has imposed sanctions on Russia, and most Russians quite rightly blame the West for its policy of economic warfare on Russia.
You are the propagandist delivering misinformation. If OPEC cuts production it will increase the price of OIL. Russians can view pragmatically the sanctions effects on their Nation and parrot that logic. If the USA didn't think sanctions would hurt Russians economically, they would not use them. You try to turn an objective perspective on future events into a pessiimistic viewpoint. The USA has also created the debt burden in Syria, but I think that the Russians are proud to have helped Syria and will be rewarded in the future by reciprocal trade and benefits from Syria and its' peoples. In Ukraine, the Russians have been the salvation of the regions that did not approve the Coup d'etat government and its' stooge elected with 13% of the eligible voters. Just as an aside. When are the Ukrainian leaders going to arrest Parubiy, the leader of the Kiev sniper shootings?
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<snip>11/17/18
Donald Trump wants Saudi Arabia and other oil producers to stay out of the way as oil prices plunge. But the US president isn’t the only leader watching the crude market, as the longest losing streak on record hits economies and tilts political battles around the world. China’s Xi Jinping, India’s Narendra Modi and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan are among those who’ll benefit most from lower prices. For Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman, it’ll add to an already troubled outlook.
<snip>
Russia - Exporter 5.53 million barrels/day
Cheaper oil is bad news for Putin, whose goal of revving up growth to boost living standards is already at risk. But while Russia’s economy is reliant on the world’s highest exports of oil and gas, this drop isn’t nearly as worrisome as it was in 2014, when it tipped the ruble into meltdown and required emergency action by the central bank. Since then, the Kremlin has been battening down the financial hatches - building up its wealth fund and tightening the budget in preparation for this as well as the risk of crippling new sanctions from the US. As a result, Russia can now balance its budget with oil under $50 a barrel, half the level it needed in 2014 and one of the lowest break-even prices for a major producer.
It's a mis-spell, better said a mis-word. OPEC says it will increase oil output.
Of course it won't.:roll:
I'm sure that most Russians do that, it's a success of Kremlin propaganda neatly skirting around the reason for those sanctions.
Like Russia having invaded a territory not its own, the sovereignty of which it previously recognized.
2. Syria - Russia is not going to re-build Syria.
Yeah, talking about it.Seems to me that OPEC are currently talking about cutting production:..................~
The Moscow Times | Most Russians Are Pessimistic About Political and Economic Future — Poll
Ordinary Russians have good reasons to be pessimistic. Many of their nations financial, technical, and military sectors are under widespread sanctions which will be increasing. OPEC is about to cut oil production which will depress the price of a Russian barrel of oil. Moscow needs an oil price of $100 brl. to support its economy and fund its military adventures. The costs of subsidizing Crimea and bankrolling its invasion in eastern Ukraine are increasing. Moscow is also on the hook for rebuilding the war-shattered Syria.
And before our Russian propagandist delivers disinformation, VTsIOM is Russia's oldest and most trusted polling agency. It is owned and managed by the Russian government (one of the very few things they do fairly well).
Assuming you meant increase production not cut it, that would not be as disastrous for russia as it would be the west. Fairly recently saudi an american ally had to work some deals to increase prices because they were headed towards economic collapse. Russia's economy has proven diverse even after the last round of oil prices tanking, and the one that caved was saudi arabia not russia, doing the same will not cripple russia it will cripple saudi arabia and push it closer to bankruptcy. It is like the gameplanners are so stupid they think doing what has failed over and over will somehow this time not fail.
Fyi oil per barrel is well below 100 a barrel, and russia is doing fine, you must be among the group of doom mongers who predicted russia will fall any second now since putin took office, only to be proven wrong so many times in a row that no sane person should listen to such advice.
The Moscow Times | Most Russians Are Pessimistic About Political and Economic Future — Poll
Ordinary Russians have good reasons to be pessimistic. Many of their nations financial, technical, and military sectors are under widespread sanctions which will be increasing. OPEC is about to cut oil production which will depress the price of a Russian barrel of oil. Moscow needs an oil price of $100 brl. to support its economy and fund its military adventures. The costs of subsidizing Crimea and bankrolling its invasion in eastern Ukraine are increasing. Moscow is also on the hook for rebuilding the war-shattered Syria.
And before our Russian propagandist delivers disinformation, VTsIOM is Russia's oldest and most trusted polling agency. It is owned and managed by the Russian government (one of the very few things they do fairly well).
Ruptly
Published on Sep 25, 2014
Fyi oil per barrel is well below 100 a barrel, and russia is doing fine, you must be among the group of doom mongers who predicted russia will fall any second now since putin took office blah blah blah blah....
The Moscow Times | Most Russians Are Pessimistic About Political and Economic Future — Poll
Ordinary Russians have good reasons to be pessimistic. Many of their nations financial, technical, and military sectors are under widespread sanctions which will be increasing.
Putin has decided to keep his expansionist military funded. This will come at the expense of domestic programs. A recent Russian poll says that Russians are very worried about the Russian economy and their lot in life. With the very much hated 2018 pension reforms, they can see the writing on the wall.
(Of course, like many other Americans, I feel that our future is also very grim. But that's another story!)
They did not riot under the Communists. They wont riot now either.
Check on the price of oil when Russia was socking away rubles into their Reserve Fund and Russian National Wealth Fund. Oil went over $100 brl in 2008. The price steadily climbed from 2010-2014. Benchmark crude was $106 in January 2014. The Kremlin was awash in money and so decided to invade Ukraine. By October crude had fallen to $80. At this time Russia's state budget was predicated on a barrel price of $100 and higher. The ruble began its exchange rate fall. By December crude had fallen to $62 brl. The ruble was in a meltdown. Only the brilliant financial moves of Central Bank of Russia president Elvira Nabiullina slowed the bleeding and expected crash of the ruble. By 2017 both rainy day funds were temporarily merged. However, the Reserve Fund, built up over years with profits from oil exports but amid low oil price prices was emptied by the end of 2017 and ceased to exist. The Russian government still has $65 billion in the National Wealth Fund to cover planned budget shortfalls, but according to financial analysts it might not last for more than three years. The National Wealth Fund with its $65 billion is the only fund left to cover budget deficits, estimated at $21.8 billion in 2018. Putin wants higher prices for crude, but not abnormally high. $70-80 brl Brent would be fine. The market is skittish right now due to the unknown effect of the US Iran sanctions, falling oil production in Venezuela, and declining Russian oil production in West Siberia which is the country’s main oil producing region. Russia is desperate to begin heavy oil operations in the Arctic, but the US/EU sanctions rule out Western drilling expertise and technology.
The economic upshot here is that the Russia of today is not the Russia of 2010-2014. Moscow cannot now do what was very affordable during the halcyon days of 2010-2014. The Kremlin has had to downsize its state budget and decide on priorities. Putin has decided to keep his expansionist military funded. This will come at the expense of domestic programs. A recent Russian poll says that Russians are very worried about the Russian economy and their lot in life. With the very much hated 2018 pension reforms, they can see the writing on the wall.
Oh look, I think there's no doubt that mainstream western analysis on Russia has been horribly wrong every day for the last 25 years. But yet they still peddle the same nonsense about how Russia is about to collapse politically, economically or both. You can see it in the crazy threads on this forum which fall into two categories:
1. That Russia is meddling and impaxcting everything under the sun through some extraordinary but ephemeral special powers.
2. That Russia is 'Nigeria with snow', its economy incredibly weak, its military is obsolete and most of its soldiers are either killing or raping each other.
Any sane analysis of Russia would dismiss both of these ridiculous themes.
Here's Moody's, much more sane analysis, of how Russia is resilient:
https://af.reuters.com/article/africaTech/idAFL3N1RW28G
April 18 (Reuters) - Rating agency Moody’s Investors Service said on Wednesday Russia’s strong public and external finances would shield its economy from the impact of the latest U.S. sanctions.
However, the sanctions will be credit negative for some Russian debt issuers, especially Russian aluminum giant United Company Rusal Plc, Moody's said bit.ly/2HgdbXS in a report.
The Russian banking system has enough earnings capacity for absorbing credit losses arising from exposures to sanctioned companies, the rating agency said.
Russia however does not set it's baseline budget based off oil revenue
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