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More shots at Obama's Afghanistan exit stragity

ricksfolly

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GOP survival politics took another shot at Obama's manhood yesterday by undermining his decision to draw down troops in Afghanistan by July 1011. On ABC's This week, and CBS Face The Nation, Reps McCain and Graham reran the old tired chestnut that if we tell the enemy when we're, leaving he'll wait us out.

McCain played his experience card, which has no bearing on running down terrorists (Afghanistan patriots) and Graham rolled out his tired twisted logic. No real end plan, just more rabble rousing spam.

Gen Petraeus announced that he had no intention of following his Commander In Chief's exit plan (blatant mutiny), but really has no plan of his own, just to win by winning. Of course if Pet gets dumped, the Reps will be all over Obama, probably move to impeach him. Nothing personal, just more survival politics that have nothing to do with what the people want.

ricksfolly
 

braindrain

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So do you think that in a COIN operation telling everyone the date you are going to leave whether you are have won or not is a good idea. COIN, in general terms, is all about convincing the local population that supporting the insurgency is a bad move and that the local government is the key to a better way of life. Telling the locals that you want them to support the local government, which could be bad for their health if the insurgency wins, while at the same time telling them that we are only going to support them until a certain date then they are are on their own is pretty much the same thing as telling them to either do nothing or support the insurgency. I have no problem with the US having a exit date and it might even be a good idea. Telling the world the date is nothing but a pure political move disregarding the fact that it will compromise the military mission. It is not far of from telling the Germans the date we intended to land at Normandy. If you think that the locals in Astan don't know about this and it is a common reason for them not supporting the Astan Gov than you don't know what is going on over there.
 

LiberalAvenger

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So do you think that in a COIN operation telling everyone the date you are going to leave whether you are have won or not is a good idea. COIN, in general terms, is all about convincing the local population that supporting the insurgency is a bad move and that the local government is the key to a better way of life. Telling the locals that you want them to support the local government, which could be bad for their health if the insurgency wins, while at the same time telling them that we are only going to support them until a certain date then they are are on their own is pretty much the same thing as telling them to either do nothing or support the insurgency. I have no problem with the US having a exit date and it might even be a good idea. Telling the world the date is nothing but a pure political move disregarding the fact that it will compromise the military mission. It is not far of from telling the Germans the date we intended to land at Normandy. If you think that the locals in Astan don't know about this and it is a common reason for them not supporting the Astan Gov than you don't know what is going on over there.
After nine years do you think anybody is going to believe any politician that we are leaving?

There are just too many different strategies we have not tried yet. I am waiting for our government to start passing out happy meals over there in order to win their confidence in us.:roll:
 

braindrain

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While you or I might not believe that we are going to leave on the date that is set by the president. I have been asked on several occasions by afghans why they should get involved in supporting the gov if we are just going to leave and allow the country to be taken back over by the Taliban. That right there should be enough reason for anyone to not publicly announce our time table for withdrawal or even be talking publicly about leaving before the job is done. What is more important winning the war or gaining some political points.
 

LiberalAvenger

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While you or I might not believe that we are going to leave on the date that is set by the president. I have been asked on several occasions by afghans why they should get involved in supporting the gov if we are just going to leave and allow the country to be taken back over by the Taliban. That right there should be enough reason for anyone to not publicly announce our time table for withdrawal or even be talking publicly about leaving before the job is done. What is more important winning the war or gaining some political points.
If we win the war, then what do we win? Prestige? I would rather win the war on poverty here at home.
 

braindrain

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That is really has nothing to do with what we were talking about. As long as we are over there we should be doing everything in our power to win the war. The president telling the world when we will leave makes it harder for us to accomplish our goals over there. The only reason for saying things like that is to try and get votes never mind the cost it will have over in Astan. Just another reason I Hate politicians.
 

CompSciGuy

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How do we win though? Seems our main objectives high-tailed it to Pakistan, and the gov't we helped put in place is corrupt. After mostly ignoring the war in Afghanistan for nearly a decade while we focused on Iraq, and with so many causing trouble from a country we aren't going to invade, how much longer do we try to stick it out?
 

Korimyr the Rat

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If we win the war, then what do we win? Prestige? I would rather win the war on poverty here at home.
If we win the war in Afghanistan, Afghanistan will no longer be a staging area and recruiting ground for radical Islamic terrorists, including Al Qaeda, who are enemies of the United States and have struck at us mutiple times.
 

Lord Tammerlain

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If we win the war in Afghanistan, Afghanistan will no longer be a staging area and recruiting ground for radical Islamic terrorists, including Al Qaeda, who are enemies of the United States and have struck at us mutiple times.
That is a big if

No one has stated what a clear win would be in Afghanistan, how to achieve it, nor what the costs both in Afghani live, US lives and US money would be to achieve it.

Overall the costs of winning in Afghani lives and US dollars are something the US public are most likely unwilling to support
 

rathi

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If we win the war in Afghanistan, Afghanistan will no longer be a staging area and recruiting ground for radical Islamic terrorists, including Al Qaeda, who are enemies of the United States and have struck at us mutiple times.
What does that actually gain us? Many of the 9/11 attackers were Saudi, and Pakistan has already become a haven for radicals. Our foes can easily move between borders and removing one location isn't going to have a large impact. You can't win at whack a mole by blocking off one hole.

Ultimately, the war comes down a cost benefit equation with the following basic variables: The probability of winning the war and creating a stable Afghanistan multiplied by the decreased probability of a terrorist attack on the U.S. based on denying Afghanistan as a place multiplied by the expected losses from a terrorist attack. On the side, you have cost of the war in both lives and money. In order for the war to be worth it, you need to be saving a lot of hypothetical losses from terrorism to make up the real losses from the war.
 

Korimyr the Rat

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Overall the costs of winning in Afghani lives and US dollars are something the US public are most likely unwilling to support
That's because the American public doesn't have the spine to finish a war. We're all too quick to beat the drum and start a war, but once the shooting starts we lose our resolve. That's really very unfortunate, because half-finished wars and political defeats create terrible problems that we're going to have to address later and cost us the credibility that is vitally important to our national defense. If you were an enemy of the United States, would you not be emboldened by the fact that it's been more than sixty years since we have fought a war with the full political and public support to necessary to win?

Ultimately, the war comes down a cost benefit equation with the following basic variables: The probability of winning the war and creating a stable Afghanistan multiplied by the decreased probability of a terrorist attack on the U.S. based on denying Afghanistan as a place multiplied by the expected losses from a terrorist attack. On the side, you have cost of the war in both lives and money. In order for the war to be worth it, you need to be saving a lot of hypothetical losses from terrorism to make up the real losses from the war.
You are forgetting one factor: the increased risk of terror attacks against American assets and allies that would be created by the failure of our foreign policy. Our actions have destablized conditions in Afghanistan and Pakistan and caused the deaths of thousands of people, civilian and terrorist alike. The worst possible thing we can do is compound this failure by abandoning American allies in the region and demonstrating that we are an unreliable partner.
 

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That's because the American public doesn't have the spine to finish a war. We're all too quick to beat the drum and start a war, but once the shooting starts we lose our resolve. That's really very unfortunate, because half-finished wars and political defeats create terrible problems that we're going to have to address later and cost us the credibility that is vitally important to our national defense. If you were an enemy of the United States, would you not be emboldened by the fact that it's been more than sixty years since we have fought a war with the full political and public support to necessary to win?



You are forgetting one factor: the increased risk of terror attacks against American assets and allies that would be created by the failure of our foreign policy. Our actions have destablized conditions in Afghanistan and Pakistan and caused the deaths of thousands of people, civilian and terrorist alike. The worst possible thing we can do is compound this failure by abandoning American allies in the region and demonstrating that we are an unreliable partner.
We abandoned south VN and no one seemed to mind. In fact, they are in better shape after the war than before it.
 

ReverendHellh0und

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GOP survival politics took another shot at Obama's manhood yesterday by undermining his decision to draw down troops in Afghanistan by July 1011. On ABC's This week, and CBS Face The Nation, Reps McCain and Graham reran the old tired chestnut that if we tell the enemy when we're, leaving he'll wait us out.

McCain played his experience card, which has no bearing on running down terrorists (Afghanistan patriots) and Graham rolled out his tired twisted logic. No real end plan, just more rabble rousing spam.

Gen Petraeus announced that he had no intention of following his Commander In Chief's exit plan (blatant mutiny), but really has no plan of his own, just to win by winning. Of course if Pet gets dumped, the Reps will be all over Obama, probably move to impeach him. Nothing personal, just more survival politics that have nothing to do with what the people want.

ricksfolly




I lol'ed then stopped reading here.
 

rathi

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You are forgetting one factor: the increased risk of terror attacks against American assets and allies that would be created by the failure of our foreign policy. Our actions have destablized conditions in Afghanistan and Pakistan and caused the deaths of thousands of people, civilian and terrorist alike. The worst possible thing we can do is compound this failure by abandoning American allies in the region and demonstrating that we are an unreliable partner.
Karzai simply grafts himself to America for personal power, and we prop him up to in an attempt to get a friendly regime in Afghanistan. If he can't deliver his end of the bargain, why should we continue to expend lives and money to keep him in power? We did not sign a treaty promising that we would prop up Karzai until the end of time. I am quite comfortable with announcing to the world that we will dump allies of convenience when they are no longer convenient. The Saudi's in particular would benefit from that understanding.
 

Korimyr the Rat

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Karzai simply grafts himself to America for personal power, and we prop him up to in an attempt to get a friendly regime in Afghanistan. If he can't deliver his end of the bargain, why should we continue to expend lives and money to keep him in power?
Honestly? I think we should cut Karzai loose. He isn't a part of any strategy that will lead to success in Afghanistan. On the other hand, we still need to demonstrate that our allies will be protected and rewarded and that allying with us is the only way they are going to establish a peaceful and orderly society.

I am quite comfortable with announcing to the world that we will dump allies of convenience when they are no longer convenient. The Saudi's in particular would benefit from that understanding.
Certainly. But we need to evaluate what is convenient for us in terms of our long-term strategic goals, rather than in terms of short-term popular support for our efforts.
 

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Did US win the war in Iraq now that combat troops is starting to pull out?
 

WI Crippler

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That's because the American public doesn't have the spine to finish a war. We're all too quick to beat the drum and start a war, but once the shooting starts we lose our resolve. That's really very unfortunate, because half-finished wars and political defeats create terrible problems that we're going to have to address later and cost us the credibility.....
Quoted for truth.

All those year of Iraq debate, people talked about how we should have only been in Afghanistan. Now that iraq is drawing down, and the focus has shifted back to Afghanistan, the fear has been engineered to try and produce an American failure, by claiming that afghanistan is simply "not worth it". It will be by the same people who tried to engineer our early withdrawal(and subsequent perception of defeat) in Iraq, And it will be by the usual subjects that claim America is supposed to be a "shining beacon". A shining beacon that apparently is expected to abandon its responsibilities if popular support wavers. While the demise of American power abroad may appeal to some, to whom will our allies turn when those who have been waiting for our fall come knocking on their door?
 

danarhea

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GOP survival politics took another shot at Obama's manhood yesterday by undermining his decision to draw down troops in Afghanistan by July 1011. On ABC's This week, and CBS Face The Nation, Reps McCain and Graham reran the old tired chestnut that if we tell the enemy when we're, leaving he'll wait us out.

McCain played his experience card, which has no bearing on running down terrorists (Afghanistan patriots) and Graham rolled out his tired twisted logic. No real end plan, just more rabble rousing spam.

Gen Petraeus announced that he had no intention of following his Commander In Chief's exit plan (blatant mutiny), but really has no plan of his own, just to win by winning. Of course if Pet gets dumped, the Reps will be all over Obama, probably move to impeach him. Nothing personal, just more survival politics that have nothing to do with what the people want.

ricksfolly
Gee, I remember when Bush was in office, when Republicans called those who openly disagreed with his military strategies traitors who gave aid and comfort to the enemy. So what changed between then and now? Ah, that's right. A different party in office. Now those who openly disagree with the president's military strategies are heroes and patriots. Got it.
 

ricksfolly

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Gee, I remember when Bush was in office, when Republicans called those who openly disagreed with his military strategies traitors who gave aid and comfort to the enemy. So what changed between then and now? Ah, that's right. A different party in office. Now those who openly disagree with the president's military strategies are heroes and patriots. Got it.
Of course Bush had the same problem, no doubt about that. All based on gotcha survival politics.

ricksfolly
 
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