Midterm Elections

[CaughtInThe]

power flip flops back and forth.


when Reagan won I can remember people saying that Democrats were toast forever. Same when Clinton won (except the Rs were toast).


it's just who we are.

 

[Jay59]

Going by if the election were held today with the numbers available today. I look first look at redistricting, 47 states have completed the process, leaving 3 more states to go. Missouri, Florida and New Hampshire. 397 districts are now official, leaving 38 districts to be redrawn. There are 42 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 29 Democrats and 13 Republicans. Safe seats as of 11 Apr 2022, 177 Democratic, 178 Republican.

The importance of safe seats is that they let you know how many seats from the competitive/at risk column and those districts yet to be redrawn a party must win to gain control of the House. As of today, the democrats need 41 more seats to reach the magic number of 218. The Republicans also need 40. It remains to be seen how many safe seats each of the 3 remaining states add to each party’s safe seat column along with how many will go into the competitive/at risk column. Going by the 47 states which have completed the redistricting task, I say a gain of 7-10 seats by the GOP is the most probable. I’d say a gain of 15 plus seats for the GOP.

The senate, there’re 5 states listed as pure tossups. Arizona, Nevada and Georgia Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Republican held North Carolina is in the lean Republican column along with Democratic held New Hampshire in the lean Democrat column. The rest are pretty much set, safe, solid. The senate isn’t going to change much, plus or minus one or two seats either way or end up again in a 50-50 tie. My SWAG today is a Republican pickup of 1 seat to give them control 51-49.

Analysis of redistricting indicates the Republicans are picking up 5-7 seats, primarily by moving the seats from Democrat states to Republican states. Rather than gerrymander new seats, most of the activity has been to stabilize existing seats. One of the upshots is a record level of Democrats declining to run again.

While I have no idea here . .

. . . I agree here!

As do I. The map strongly favors Democrats but other factors strongly favor Republicans.

First, Biden has barely been in office for one year. If Approval ratings can drop they can go back up.

True.

Biden's biggest problem is that he does not appear to be in charge. That's not fixable.

As the pandemic continues to fall into the background, the economy continues to improve and inflation stabilizes things will likely improve.
The War in Ukraine is a serious problem, and if that doesn't come to some type of reasonable resolution soon it could hurt, but we'll see.

Real economic growth is not a given and the war in Ukraine is a big part of that.

Overall the redistricting fight in the house actually seems to be working out fairly well in the Democrat's favor. Holding the house could be a challenge, but if they do lose it might not be as horrible as some expect, and there's a decent chance we could get it back in 2024 and hold it stronger. The Senate is also interesting. Georgia is the only Senate seat I think Republicans are likely to take away from the Democrats and even that is not a guarantee. It will depend heavily on how effective their voter impression laws a blocking African American votes.
But even if we do lose Georgia, I think it is more likely than not that Democrats will win either Wisconsin or Pennsylvania

This is more optimistic than any expert I have seen. The House margin is already so small that redistricting alone will flip control. In the Senate, three of the five toss-up seats are held by Democrats. It's close but any lean is to the right.

Another thing to understand is that while Biden's approval rating may be low that doesn't necessarily mean anybody likes Republicans. Much of those who aren't happy are actually those on the left who want him to do more. They aren't likely to vote Republican just because Biden isn't accomplishing everything they want.

Midterm elections have always gone against the party of the President. However, the generic ballot also favors Republicans by about 3%. Also, Republicans lead enthusiasm numbers by double digits.

All in all I think it will be closer than many think and that Republicans are a bit overconfident.

I agree that the Senate will be closer than casual watchers believe because the map favors Democrats. In 2024 the map will favor Republicans but that's a ways off.

Trump is still an albatross and the crazy extremist candidates he's backing aren't helping.

Only to those who would never have voted for him in the first place. Trump is doing well with swing voters.

 

[Chillfolks]

When Republicans loose seats in a midterm it is a massive referendum on the displeasure the country has with Republican leadership. When Democrats loose seats in a midterm it’s just a natural historical phenomenon and in no way reflects the mood of the country. It’s not hard to understand

 

[redbeer]

It's a little over six months to the midterm elections. Is a Congressional change of parties already inevitable?

The New Republic says no.

The Democrats Are Not Dead Yet

Despite conventional wisdom, the party is not doomed in November’s midterm elections. The economy, Covid-19, the invasion of Ukraine, and the January 6 insurrection are all wild cards.

newrepublic.com

Dynamic inaction captures the current mood on Capitol Hill—and the safe bet is that this paralysis will continue until November. Almost certainly, the confirmation of Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court pretty much exhausts what Biden and the Democrats can expect from an evenly divided Congress. But scenarios of a Democratic rebound do not require Joe Manchin suddenly to decide—like Scrooge after seeing the ghosts of Christmas—that he wants to spend trillions on social programs and battling climate change out of a newfound spirit of generosity. ...​

​

The underappreciated truth is that this is an off-year election without historical parallels. A Supreme Court decision eviscerating or overturning Roe v. Wade could galvanize Democratic turnout. In the midst of the global crisis in Ukraine—with Americans again worrying about the specter of nuclear war—it is impossible to predict the role that Biden’s foreign policy leadership might play in November.​

​

The Hill disagrees

The Memo: Bad economic news haunts Democrats ahead of midterms

President Biden and other Democrats are confronting a stark truth — they’re getting blamed for what’s bad in the economy and getting no credit for what’s good. The dynamic could spell electoral doo…

thehill.com

​

Democrats insist that the coronavirus relief bill that Biden passed more than a year ago still does not get due credit for having ameliorated the effects of the pandemic. But they also know voters’ memories are short, and that the legislation in question, the American Rescue Plan, is a long way in the rearview mirror. As if all that were not enough, the war in Ukraine is now commanding the lion’s share of public attention and exacerbating the very inflationary pressures that are causing Democrats such problems.​

​

It’s a grim scenario for the president and his party. Democrats still hold out hope that things can turn around, but the chances of rebuffing a GOP wave in November seem to be getting smaller and smaller.​

​

The fact remains that it is a long way to November. The slow summer months are looming and attention will turn elsewhere.

What say you?

Instead of being impeached for his criminal behavior, something will happen to ole Joe and be put into retirement.....they will use this moment of gravity for pity votes in their vain attempt to keep control....it will be a very somber, theatric drama to encourage the democrat vote.....I mean, who couldn't, will be their goal......

Seriously, who knows.....more than likely they will lose control, at least I sure hope so, for they have proven themselves truly incompetent.....

 

[gbg3]

When Republicans loose seats in a midterm it is a massive referendum on the displeasure the country has with Republican leadership. When Democrats loose seats in a midterm it’s just a natural historical phenomenon and in no way reflects the mood of the country. It’s not hard to understand

Lol!!!!!

 

[Brack]

The Republicans will take back the House. Republicans need to pick up only about six seats, and they will likely pick up a House seat in Arizona here due to redistricting. I don't know if Arizona Senator Kelly will be reelected. He has about a 50% chance of being reelected.

 

[tres borrachos]

When Republicans loose seats in a midterm it is a massive referendum on the displeasure the country has with Republican leadership. When Democrats loose seats in a midterm it’s just a natural historical phenomenon and in no way reflects the mood of the country. It’s not hard to understand

Nobody said that but you. Did you stumble in here to make an incredibly stupid post and not actually answer the question posed by the OP?

 

[tres borrachos]

Lol!!!!!

Giggle giggle!

 

[Perotista]

When Republicans loose seats in a midterm it is a massive referendum on the displeasure the country has with Republican leadership. When Democrats loose seats in a midterm it’s just a natural historical phenomenon and in no way reflects the mood of the country. It’s not hard to understand

I think both major parties have the nasty habit of reading the mood of the country. Although what you stated is basically the way the MSM portrays it. It seems to me, when a party wins an election, they always think they have a mandate. False in my way of thinking. Take 2020, if one delves into the exit polls, one would find out it was an anti-Trump election. No more, no less. Those voting against Trump, not for Biden, not for Democratic party candidates, but against Trump provided Biden his 7 plus million vote victory. I call this the anti-vote. They’re not voting for anything, for any candidate or party, just against a candidate or party which the candidate or party of the opponent in which they’re voting against benefits big time.

Biden won the anti-voters in 2020 68-30 over Trump. They made up 24% of those who voted. They weren’t voting for Biden, he just happened to be Trump’s opponent. Anyone would due, as long as his name wasn’t Trump. Even Atilla the Hun. In fact those who voted for a candidate, whose reason for voting was because they wanted the candidate they were voting for to win, Trump won those voters 53-46 over Biden, they made up 71% of those who voted. Don’t ever underestimate the power of the anti-voter, they decide most elections. These folks aren’t for anything, they just against who they’re voting against, candidates, party, whatever. They support no one, no party.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results

It’s these folks who have caused Biden’s overall approval rating to drop from 55% in June 2021 down to 41% today. They never supported Biden; they were just against Trump. Now they’ve switched and are against Biden and company. Remember, that a lot of these anti voters voted for Biden in 2020, but Republican down ballot enabling the GOP to pick up 13 house seats, a governorship and 2 state legislatures. They were certainly not pro-Biden nor pro-Democratic Party. Just anti-Trump.

Today, a lot of these anti-voters are moving into the anti-Democratic Party column. Being anti-Democratic Party doesn’t mean they’re pro-Republican Party. It simply means they’re against the Democrats, the party in charge. In 2016 these anti-folks were anti-Clinton. In 2018, they were anti-Republican Party, in 2020 anti-Trump. It seems if the numbers hold, they’ll be anti-democratic Party this year.

 

[Chillfolks]

Nobody said that but you. Did you stumble in here to make an incredibly stupid post and not actually answer the question posed by the OP?

Did you make a special trip in to be a prude and miss the obvious sarcasm on how the narrative is spun, or were you did you run out of sky to yell at?

 

[Chomsky]

Analysis of redistricting indicates the Republicans are picking up 5-7 seats, primarily by moving the seats from Democrat states to Republican states. Rather than gerrymander new seats, most of the activity has been to stabilize existing seats. One of the upshots is a record level of Democrats declining to run again.

How is this possibly a good idea?

It's suppressing the democratic process.

As do I. The map strongly favors Democrats but other factors strongly favor Republicans.


True.

Biden's biggest problem is that he does not appear to be in charge. That's not fixable.


Real economic growth is not a given and the war in Ukraine is a big part of that.


This is more optimistic than any expert I have seen. The House margin is already so small that redistricting alone will flip control. In the Senate, three of the five toss-up seats are held by Democrats. It's close but any lean is to the right.


Midterm elections have always gone against the party of the President. However, the generic ballot also favors Republicans by about 3%. Also, Republicans lead enthusiasm numbers by double digits.


I agree that the Senate will be closer than casual watchers believe because the map favors Democrats. In 2024 the map will favor Republicans but that's a ways off.


Only to those who would never have voted for him in the first place. Trump is doing well with swing voters.

 

[Jay59]

How is this possibly a good idea? It's suppressing the democratic process.

What is?

The Census is in the Constitution. Redistricting based on the Census is required by law. States redraw district lines even if the state is not losing or gaining a Representative.

People have been voting with their feet forever. It's appropriate to occasionally recognize it with adjustments.

 

[Sandy Shanks]

It is not looking good for our President. While dealing with a barbaric war in Ukraine that promises to get worse, Biden must deal with crushing inflation at home.

Chris Cillizza writes, "The Consumer Price Index – a measure of inflation in the economy – hit a four-decade high in March, a brutal reminder for Democrats of the political headwinds facing them as they seek to keep their majorities in the House and Senate this fall.

"Prices rose 8.5% from March 2021 to March 2022, while they increased 1.2% from February to March. Half of the increase in the CPI was due to rising gas prices in March.

"The problem for Biden (and his party) is that it’s not at all clear that people care why everything they are trying to buy costs more. [Which explains why they blame the President] All they know is that gas prices are through the roof – although they are lower this week than last – and everything they want or need to buy costs more (a lot more) than it did a year ago.

"Inflation is such a powerful issue in politics because, unlike, say, foreign policy, it touches every person on a daily basis. You notice when it costs more to fill up your car. Or shop for groceries. Or buy just about anything."

Which explains why -- come November -- the Democrats are in trouble, although it is iffy the party responsible for Trump can do any better.

 

[Buckeyes85]

"Crushing inflation?" Who exactly is being crushed? And how are they being crushed?

I appreciate due to the jobless rate being near an all time low and the economy rebounding, crushing inflation is the "illusion of truth" you folks try to create. Inflation is certainly an issue. But the only folks obsessed with flogging that issue probably have not been effected (affected?) and loathe Biden and the dems anyway. So not a lot of lost votes there.

 

[Chomsky]

What is?

The Census is in the Constitution. Redistricting based on the Census is required by law. States redraw district lines even if the state is not losing or gaining a Representative.

People have been voting with their feet forever. It's appropriate to occasionally recognize it with adjustments.

If this were done altruistically, through good intention, then I'd very much agree. But that's often not what's happening, and we both know it. The redistricting is done by the power in control for political gain. In fact it's not uncommon for a given state's population to increase, while the non-power party loses seats!

 

[Decypher]

Around this time 2 years ago, just before Covid hit, Trump was on course for re-election. Things can change. But let’s say the GOP takes control of the house, what are they campaigning on? What legislation do they plan to introduce? The last time they held the house, it was hardly a period of legislative achievement.

 

[Jay59]

If this were done altruistically, through good intention, then I'd very much agree. But that's often not what's happening, and we both know it. The redistricting is done by the power in control for political gain. In fact it's not uncommon for a given state's population to increase, while the non-power party loses seats!

Intentions are beside the point. It's a necessity. By law and custom, it has been done every ten years, but it must be done.

Since it must be done and because it is inherently political, the process is going to get ugly. That's unavoidable. Trying to change it is tantamount to changing human nature.

 

[Chomsky]

Intentions are beside the point. It's a necessity. By law and custom, it has been done every ten years, but it must be done.

Of course. That point is not contested.

Since it must be done and because it is inherently political, the process is going to get ugly. That's unavoidable.

It's partisan, and usurps the democratic process, which was my original point.

Which is why I'd prefer we find a different way.

Trying to change it is tantamount to changing human nature.

Well, so are many other things, including things we criminalize. We don't always allow 'humane nature' to be an excuse for poor behaviour.

 

[Jay59]

Of course. That point is not contested.

Noted.

It's partisan, and usurps the democratic process, which was my original point.

The democratic process is partisan by nature.

Which is why I'd prefer we find a different way.

Two things are immutable.

1. Humans will devise the method
2. Humans will employ the method

You will get partisan input at all stages.

Well, so are many other things, including things we criminalize. We don't always allow 'humane nature' to be an excuse for poor behaviour.

At best, you can negotiate when both sides fear that the other side might get control. Then they will be seeking protections for the minority party.

This is essentially how we created the House of Representatives and the Electoral College. Consider the outrage we have seen with the Electoral College functioning properly. That's a success in this sort of environment.