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Managing "Russia"'s dissolution

Litwin

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great article. for how long can Muscovy fight this total war, and how this territory will look like in 10 years?

According+to+the+Constitution+of+Russia%2C+oblasts+are+considered+to+be+subjects+of+the+Federation%2C+which+is+a+higher+status+than+that+of+administrative+units+they+had+within+the+Russian+SFSR+before+the+dissolution+of+the+Soviet+Union..jpg


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"Russia’s ongoing attacks on Ukraine and its persistent subversion of Western states demonstrates that Washington and Brussels have failed to restrain Moscow’s imperial ambitions.

Engagement, criticism and limited sanctions have simply reinforced Kremlin perceptions that the West is weak and predictable. To curtail Moscow’s neo-imperialism a new strategy is needed, one that nourishes Russia’s decline and manages the international consequences of its dissolution.

Russia is more fragile than it appears, and the West is stronger than it is portrayed. Under the regime of Vladimir Putin, which will soon enter its third decade, the country has transitioned from an emerging democracy to an unstable authoritarianism.

Although Moscow has failed to modernize its economy to be globally competitive, the Kremlin excels in one domain — disinformation — through which it portrays the country as a rising power on a level with the U.S.

In reality, Russia is a declining state that disguises its internal infirmities with external offensives. Russia’s economy is stagnating. According to World Bank statistics for 2017, Russia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita ranks 62nd in the world.

Even the defense budget is shrinking and barely reaches a tenth of the U.S. Through a combination of low fossil fuel prices, infrastructural decay, pervasive corruption and Western financial sanctions, state revenues are declining, living standards are falling, social conflicts are intensifying and regional disquiet is mounting.

Although economic performance alone is insufficient to measure susceptibility to collapse, rising social, ethnic and regional pressures indicate that Russia is heading toward fragmentation.


Russia has failed to develop into a nation state with a strong ethnic or civic identity. It remains an imperial construct due to its Tsarist and Soviet heritage.

The unwieldy Russian Federation consists of 85 “federal subjects,” of which 22 are republics representing non-Russian ethnicities, including the North Caucasus and Middle Volga, and numerous regions with distinct identities that feel increasingly estranged from Moscow.

Instead of pursuing decentralization to accommodate regional aspirations, the Kremlin is downgrading their autonomy. This is evident in the new language law designed to promote "Russification" and plans to merge and eliminate several regions.
 

Litwin

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Pressure is mounting across the country, with growing anger at local governors appointed by the Kremlin and resentment that Moscow appropriates their resources. Indeed, regions such as Sakha and Magadan in the far east, with their substantial mineral wealth, could be successful states without Moscow’s exploitation.

Emerging states will benefit from forging closer economic and political contacts with neighboring countries rather than depending on Moscow, whose federal budget is drastically shrinking. Collapsing infrastructure means that residents of Siberia and Russia’s far east will become even more separated from the center, thus encouraging demands for secession and sovereignty.

Given Russia’s ailments, an assertive Western approach would be more effective than reactive defense. Washington needs to return to core principles that accompanied the collapse of the Soviet Union by supporting democratization, pluralism, minority rights, genuine federalism, decentralization and regional self-determination among Russia’s disparate regions and ethnic groups.

While Moscow seeks to divide the West and fracture the EU and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) by backing nationalist and separatist parties in Europe, Washington should promote regional and ethnic self-determination inside the Russian Federation. This would send a strong signal that the West is fully capable of reacting to Moscow’s subversion.

The rationale for dissolution should be logically framed: In order to survive, Russia needs a federal democracy and a robust economy; with no democratization on the horizon and economic conditions deteriorating, the federal structure will become increasingly ungovernable.

To manage the process of dissolution and lessen the likelihood of conflict that spills over state borders, the West needs to establish links with Russia’s diverse regions and promote their peaceful transition toward statehood.

NATO should prepare contingencies for both the dangers and the opportunities that Russia’s fragmentation will present. In particular, Moscow’s European neighbors must be provided with sufficient security to shield themselves from the most destabilizing scenarios while preparations are made for engaging with emerging post-Russia entities.

Some regions could join countries such as Finland, Ukraine, China and Japan, from whom Moscow has forcefully appropriated territories in the past. Other republics in the North Caucasus, Middle Volga, Siberia and the far east could become fully independent states and forge relations with China, Japan, the U.S. and Europe.

Neglecting Russia’s dissolution may prove more damaging to Western interests than making preparations to manage its international repercussions. To avoid sudden geopolitical jolts and possible military confrontations, Washington needs to monitor and encourage a peaceful rupture and establish links with emerging entities.

The sudden collapse of the Soviet Union should serve as a lesson that far-reaching transformations occur regardless of the Kremlin’s disinformation campaigns or the West’s shortsighted adherence to a transient status quo. " https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/424511-managing-russias-dissolution

Russia1918.png
 

beerftw

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Holy crap you keep spamming russia is going to fail any minute now, at this point your predictions are about as accurate as preppers hiding in a bunker screaming obama is gonna lock us away any minute now in walmart fema death camps.

Most ligical people stopped even bothering to read your posts a long time ago.
 

Rogue Valley

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You do what you have to do Litwin and pay the Putinista above no mind.
 

Litwin

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Holy crap you keep spamming russia is going to fail any minute now, at this point your predictions are about as accurate as preppers hiding in a bunker screaming obama is gonna lock us away any minute now in walmart fema death camps.

Most ligical people stopped even bothering to read your posts a long time ago.

really , just 2 dates, 1918, and 1991 . comments ?
 

beerftw

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really , just 2 dates, 1918, and 1991 . comments ?

And guess what russia is still here, so I guess the whole collapse any second thing is nothing worth noting.
 

Litwin

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And guess what russia is still here, so I guess the whole collapse any second thing is nothing worth noting.

really ? why i can´t find it on the map?

global-economy-one-chart.png
 

beerftw

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really ? why i can´t find it on the map?

global-economy-one-chart.png

Considering they are the largest country on he map, you must be going out of your way to avoid them, too bad your lithuanian ecenomy can not compete with russias, hence why you need to mock russia daily, to cover your own countries shortcomings.
 

Rogue Valley

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Considering they are the largest country on he map, you must be going out of your way to avoid them, too bad your lithuanian ecenomy can not compete with russias, hence why you need to mock russia daily, to cover your own countries shortcomings.

Russia covers 11 time zones with a GDP less that that of Italy. Massive corruption and mismanagement.
 

Litwin

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Considering they are the largest country on he map, you must be going out of your way to avoid them, too bad your lithuanian ecenomy can not compete with russias, hence why you need to mock russia daily, to cover your own countries shortcomings.

on which map, on the GDP world - map ?
Which Has the Bigger Economy: Texas or "Russia"?
COMM-everythings-bigger-in-texas-04132018.jpg


LOL)))
 

beerftw

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on which map, on the GDP world - map ?

COMM-everythings-bigger-in-texas-04132018.jpg


LOL)))

Your map is innacurate on the russia portion, russias gdp was closer to 1.5 trillion in 2017 and grew in 2018, and gdp per capita was over 10k not 8k, your own source posted accurate numbers for texas 2017, while claiming 2018, and posted absurd numbers that do not match any numbers for russia.
 

beerftw

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Russia covers 11 time zones with a GDP less that that of Italy. Massive corruption and mismanagement.

And ukraine has one fourth the population of russia but one tenth the gdp, what is your point.
 

Rogue Valley

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And ukraine has one fourth the population of russia but one tenth the gdp, what is your point.

Always deflecting to Ukraine because you always fail to defend Russia. You're pitiable lol.
 

beerftw

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Always deflecting to Ukraine because you always fail to defend Russia. You're pitiable lol.

It is easy to defend russia when the one trying to call it out backs a country far worse, appently ukrainians must throw stones in glass houses as a national passtime.
 

Rogue Valley

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It is easy to defend russia when the one trying to call it out backs a country far worse, appently ukrainians must throw stones in glass houses as a national passtime.

You should move to Russia. Prighozin would love to have you at 55 Savushkina Street.

And no, you're never going to get the last word in like you think you are. I'm here every day.
 

Litwin

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You should move to Russia. Prighozin would love to have you at 55 Savushkina Street.

And no, you're never going to get the last word in like you think you are. I'm here every day.

he writes from 55 Savushkina Street , right new , we checked his IP

ps Muscovite empire today vs Belarus , border lands
ulus
9f72fcd8b645530926ec95ab7761d7c5.jpeg

4434c031680b414a56dbcd650a399479.jpeg


Belarus

2c8ed48d9a1324e8f4b8fddc784a8bb4.jpeg

https://people.onliner.by/2019/01/23/derevni
 

beerftw

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You should move to Russia. Prighozin would love to have you at 55 Savushkina Street.

And no, you're never going to get the last word in like you think you are. I'm here every day.

I would rather not live there it is quite a terrible place, bu none the less still better than ukraine.
 

beerftw

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If you checked my ip your ip checker must be as innacurate as your claims, otherwise you would have come up with nolanville tx.
VPN, right?

relax, just kidding.:mrgreen:
 

beerftw

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VPN, right?

relax, just kidding.:mrgreen:

Of course everyone knows I am hiding in putins basement using vpn to troll the world as part of operation russian vodka where the goal is to drain the internet of electrons to power a doomsday device.
 

Chagos

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Of course everyone knows I am hiding in putins basement using vpn to troll the world as part of operation russian vodka where the goal is to drain the internet of electrons to power a doomsday device.
Sounds exciting.

As long, that is, as you don't drain the bottle of vodka in the process.;)
 

Abbazorkzog

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I think in a few decades, Russia will look something like this:

1083082498345.png


Just a rough estimate though, nothing scientific.
 

Litwin

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I think in a few decades, Russia will look something like this:

1083082498345.png


Just a rough estimate though, nothing scientific.

great map. can we go step by step ?
from east to west ,
1) outer manchuria to China +1
2) Chukotka and Sakha will build one state, why do you think so?
3) Krasnoyarsk Krai , +1. ethnic Serbians on the great river
 

Abbazorkzog

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2) Chukotka and Sakha will build one state, why do you think so?
Admittedly, I don't know much about Far Eastern Russia besides Manchuria, so those were sort of just left over territories that I didn't know much to do with. But they are ultimately satellite states by Imperial China in the 2050s in my timeline. Assuming China continues its upward mobility of course, and ends up becoming a new superpower. I'm interetested to know what you think of the state of European Russia though. They nominally remain united under a common currency, but with greater autonomy. I used the fall of the Soviet Union, and to a lesser degree - the breakup of Yugoslavia - as a template. Republican Russia maintains a system of government similar to the U.S. (although a looot poorer and smaller) which incorporates some surrounding Krai and Oblast into it due to the raw manpower of the Komi Republic (over a million by this time). And Muslims would of course want their own autonomy within European Russia, giving rise to a Tatar-led 'Muslim Russia' in the southwest of the former-Russian Federation...

And then there's Moscow occupying the former Central Federal District territory bordering Ukraine/Belarus.
 
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