Live Thread for the SC Democratic Presidential Debate

GreatNews2night · Feb 26, 2020

Erod said:
You're obviously new at this, so I'll explain.

"Frontrunner" means little when you're only pulling 25% of the vote. Yes, he'll likely get the highest number of delegates at this rate because the vote is getting split so many ways.

But for every 100 college kids he gets to the voting booth that wouldn't normally vote, you'll see 200 either stay home in disgust or vote third party or for Trump.

That's why growing the electorate is so hard to do. You bring in new voters but chase away others who are nothing like those new voters.

Bernie isn't going to get the needed 1,991 delegates, which will bring about a brokered convention. I think the DNC will give the needed delegates to the top moderate and take it from Bernie.

The DNC will basically be forever destroyed if Bernie ideology takes over the party for good. They'll lose every moderate they have. I don't see them letting that happen.

You can't be so sure of any of what you are saying. First, Bernie polls better among independents than among Democrats, and is getting the majority of independents. Second, Bernie is now attracting a lot of moderate support. Third, Bernie actually got 40.5% of the popular vote in Nevada and Warren got 11.5% so if Warren drops out which looks likely, those votes will likely transfer most to Bernie, who would then be at 52%. Fourth, even if this doesn't happen, just with his 40.5% in Nevada, Bernie got 66% of the Nevada delegates because given the 15% threshold that others didn't make, his total got recalculated up to account for 100% of delegates.

If Bernie continues to earn 66% of delegates each state or most states, then he WILL achieve a simple majority in the convention.

GreatNews2night · Feb 26, 2020

iguanaman said:
What they won't and can't let happen is giving Trump another 4 years and losing the purple seats that gave them the House in 2018. Remember that NONE of those seats were won by Bernie people. It will be the end of the progressive movement for a generation and most likely the end of the USA.

Nah, most people vote straight ticket, down ballot. Any candidate who increases turn out, benefits the down ballot races. Bernie may end up helping elect more Democratic senators and house representatives. Statements to the contrary, defying conventional wisdom that increased turn out always benefits the down ballot candidates, is nothing but scare tactics to see if people will not vote for Bernie. By the way, it's not working. State to state, his numbers are actually growing; so much for the efficacy of the scare tactics.

iguanaman · Feb 26, 2020

GreatNews2night said:
Nah, most people vote straight ticket, down ballot. Any candidate who increases turn out, benefits the down ballot races. Bernie may end up helping elect more Democratic senators and house representatives. Statements to the contrary, defying conventional wisdom that increased turn out always benefits the down ballot candidates, is nothing but scare tactics to see if people will not vote for Bernie. By the way, it's not working. State to state, his numbers are actually growing; so much for the efficacy of the scare tactics.

Sure Trump is hated but Bernie's policies directly effect the lives or voters in a negative way. Many will not vote to take their employer healthcare away and to raise their taxes. That is why Trump wants Bernie so bad. We don't need to give people reasons to vote Trump another term. It's dangerous and stupid.

cpwill · Feb 26, 2020

Chomsky said:
Yes, "then there is Trump". Which causes us to rethink everything (which is a good thing!).

Who would think general elections could be won by catering exclusively to one's partisan base? No one thought that, before trump. But here we are.

I am still not sure I would say that happened. Trump didn't really win so much as Hillary Lost.

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iguanaman · Feb 26, 2020

cpwill said:
I am still not sure I would say that happened. Trump didn't really win so much as Hillary Lost.

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You got it half right. Trump certainly did not win. He lost by nearly 3 million votes and the other democracies in the world are scratching their heads.

cpwill · Feb 26, 2020

iguanaman said:
Sure Trump is hated but Bernie's policies directly effect the lives or voters in a negative way. Many will not vote to take their employer healthcare away and to raise their taxes. That is why Trump wants Bernie so bad. We don't need to give people reasons to vote Trump another term. It's dangerous and stupid.

Anticipated Common Refrain of Fall 2020: "I hate his tweets, but...."

cpwill · Feb 26, 2020

iguanaman said:
You got it half right. Trump certainly did not win. He lost by nearly 3 million votes and the other democracies in the world are scratching their heads.

cute, but we have a Constitution. If other countries don't understand the value of having one of those, well, their loss

cpwill · Feb 26, 2020

Chomsky said:
I pretty much agree with your assessment. FL is likely Red (as is OH). PA's looking Blue. But I disagree in that I think MI is trending Red. So WI is the only one of the four I can't place, but I think it might be leaning Red.

I may caution on that. Bernie hasn't - as he is still in a Democratic Primary - really had his plan to shut down fracking advertised. Pennsylvania stands to lose a lot if that industry goes under, and Republicans will hammer that home.

Surrealistik · Feb 26, 2020

iguanaman said:
Sure Trump is hated but Bernie's policies directly effect the lives or voters in a negative way. Many will not vote to take their employer healthcare away and to raise their taxes. That is why Trump wants Bernie so bad. We don't need to give people reasons to vote Trump another term. It's dangerous and stupid.

Trump actually doesn't want to face Bernie (his stated view is he would prefer to campaign against Bloomberg); his advisors do, and to be frank, if Trump has any specific competency outside of being a showman, it's that he has demonstrably good political instincts: https://theintercept.com/2020/01/29/trump-sanders-2020-election/

GreatNews2night · Feb 26, 2020

iguanaman said:
Sure Trump is hated but Bernie's policies directly effect the lives or voters in a negative way. Many will not vote to take their employer healthcare away and to raise their taxes. That is why Trump wants Bernie so bad. We don't need to give people reasons to vote Trump another term. It's dangerous and stupid.

I kept you for 24 hrs on Ignore because I got frustrated with your endless repetition of the same outdated ideas despite my showing you the data that contradicts it, which you make a point of completely ignoring. I've shown to you that the people who have good health care though their employers are a minority, and 70% of the people, which corresponds roughly to those who don't (who are 2 to 1 more numerous than those who do) may be voting for Sanders precisely because they believe that M4A is good for them. For each one person thinking what you believe therefore won't vote for Bernie, two others think the opposite therefore will vote for Bernie, thus, your argument is bogus. And again, if you raise taxes but eliminate premiums, co-pays, and deductibles, the end result may be more money in these people's pockets, again, defeating any hesitation in voting for Bernie for this reason. Despite your catastrophic predictions, Bernie continues to post better numbers than Trump, so all your fear mongering is actually not working.

If you will continue to repeat endlessly the same outdated points, should I place you on permanent Ignore?

GreatNews2night · Feb 26, 2020

Surrealistik said:
Trump actually doesn't want to face Bernie (his stated view is he would prefer to campaign against Bloomberg); his advisors do, and to be frank, if Trump has any specific competency outside of being a showman, it's that he has demonstrably good political instincts: https://theintercept.com/2020/01/29/trump-sanders-2020-election/

I have already showed this to iguanaman, but he simply ignores it and continues to say that Trump wants to run against Bernie. There is NO way to get iguanaman to acknowledge something that someone shows to him.

iguanaman · Feb 26, 2020

GreatNews2night said:
I kept you for 24 hrs on Ignore because I got frustrated with your endless repetition of the same outdated ideas despite my showing you the data that contradicts it, which you make a point of completely ignoring. I've shown to you that the people who have good health care though their employers are a minority, and 70% of the people, which corresponds roughly to those who don't (who are 2 to 1 more numerous than those who do) may be voting for Sanders precisely because they believe that M4A is good for them. For each one person thinking what you believe therefore won't vote for Bernie, two others think the opposite therefore will vote for Bernie, thus, your argument is bogus. And again, if you raise taxes but eliminate premiums, co-pays, and deductibles, the end result may be more money in these people's pockets, again, defeating any hesitation in voting for Bernie for this reason. Despite your catastrophic predictions, Bernie continues to post better numbers than Trump, so all your fear mongering is actually not working.

If you will continue to repeat endlessly the same outdated points, should I place you on permanent Ignore?

158 million people have their healthcare policies with their employer. That is not a minority, it is half of people under 65. As far as Sanders "numbers" they have been purposely been skewed by Trump who has done nothing but praise and root for him. Just wait until the multi-million $ add campaigns painting him as a radical socialist who praises communist dictators. I am terrified of Trump being reelected and losing the House and so should you.

More than half of Americans under age 65 — about 158 million people — get their health insurance through an employer, while about one-quarter either have a plan purchased through the individual insurance market or are enrolled in Medicaid.Feb 7, 2019

Health Insurance Coverage Eight Years After the ACA — 2018 Biennial | Commonwealth Fund

GreatNews2night · Feb 26, 2020

iguanaman said:
158 million people have their healthcare policies with their employer. That is not a minority, it is half of people under 65. As far as Sanders "numbers" they have been purposely been skewed by Trump who has done nothing but praise and root for him. Just wait until the multi-million $ add campaigns painting him as a radical socialist who praises communist dictators. I am terrified of Trump being reelected and losing the House and so should you.

Health Insurance Coverage Eight Years After the ACA — 2018 Biennial | Commonwealth Fund

Yes, but you are forgetting to factor in the under-insured, people who have plans under their employers but the plans are lousy and they hate them.

I gave you these numbers already.

You never learn.

I'm placing you permanently on Ignore. Bye bye. Have a nice life. :2wave:

iguanaman · Feb 26, 2020

GreatNews2night said:
Yes, but you are forgetting to factor in the under-insured, people who have plans under their employers but the plans are lousy and they hate them.

I gave you these numbers already.

You never learn.

I'm placing you permanently on Ignore. Bye bye. Have a nice life. :2wave:

I wish you luck also and I really do. The stakes in this election are immensely high and have to do with the fate of our country much more than any ideology. More so than any in my 67 years. I just wish we had more than "luck". That has not been going our way lately.

GreatNews2night · Feb 27, 2020

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Live Thread for the SC Democratic Presidential Debate

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