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Libertarian Gary Johnson, will he make an impact in November?

Now that Gary Johnson is the Libertarian Candidate, the question arises which candidate, Trump or Clinton will he hurt the most? It is no secret the electorate as a whole dislike both the Republican and Democratic nominees usually within the 60-70% range. But Johnson will not have the billions to spend to get his message out that Trump and Clinton will have, perhaps 2 to 3 million. Nonetheless, Johnson is not Trump or Clinton which plays to his advantage. But back to my original question, which candidate will he hurt the most? Conventional wisdom and political Pundits say the answer is Trump. Johnson will take more votes from Trump than Clinton. But is that true? Johnson is fiscally conservative and socially liberal, not someone the disaffected social conservatives of the Republican Party will turn to. Let’s look at 4 recent national polls.

Without Johnson Quinnipiac has the race Clinton 45, Trump 41.
Johnson included, Clinton 40, Trump 38, Johnson 5.

Without Johnson Fox News has the race Clinton 42, Trump 45
Johnson included, Clinton 39, Trump 42, Johnson 10

Without Johnson PPP has the race Clinton 47, Trump 41
Johnson included, Clinton 42, Trump 38, Johnson 4.

Without Johnson Monmouth has the race Clinton 48, Trump 38
Johnson included, Clinton 42, Trump 34, Johnson 11.

Looking at only the national polls above that included Johnson, Clinton’s total dropped 19 points in the 4 polls for an average drop of 4.75%. Trump dropped 13 points for an average drop of 3.25% with Johnson in the race. On the surface it does seem Johnson is pulling more votes from Clinton than Trump by a very small margin of 1.5%. Most folks will scoff at that, but G.W. Bush had gained that 1.5% margin he would have won the popular vote in 2000. He won the electoral college, so the national popular vote was irrelevant. Now there are some state polls speaking of the electoral college that include Johnson. Do they match the national average of hurting Clinton by a point and a half?

Arizona without Johnson, Trump 45, Clinton 41
With Johnson Trump 40, Clinton 38, Johnson 6
Arizona goes against the national averages and Johnson hurts Trump more.

California without Johnson Trump 34, Clinton 53
With Johnson, Trump 33, Clinton 45, Johnson 6
The number of undecideds increase with Johnson in the race, he definitely hurts Clinton more here.

Georgia without Johnson Trump 49, Clinton 40
With Johnson Trump 45, Clinton 38, Johnson 6
Georgia also goes against the national average; Trump is hurt more in Georgia than Clinton

Michigan without Johnson Trump 39, Clinton 43
With Johnson Trump 33, Clinton 37, Johnson 12.
Michigan looks like a good state for Johnson, but he takes evenly from both Trump and Clinton each losing 4 points, but Johnson gets an additional 4 points in the undecideds between only a two candidate race. Interesting.

Mississippi without Johnson Trump 46, Clinton 43
With Johnson Trump 38, Clinton 38, Johnson 13.
Another good state for Johnson, he puts Clinton and Trump into a tie. Mississippi is also going against the national average.

New Jersey without Johnson Trump 34, Clinton 38
With Johnson Trump 31, Clinton 37, Johnson 5
Johnson helps Clinton in New Jersey.

North Carolina without Johnson Trump 47, Clinton 43
With Johnson, Trump 39, Clinton 36, Johnson 8

Virginia without Johnson, Trump 41, Clinton 45
With Johnson, Trump 38, Clinton 44, Johnson 6
Johnson hurts Trump here.

There are the numbers, make up your own mind whom Johnson will hurt more or help which candidate. It is a mixed bag as far as I am concerned at the state level. But one thing does stand out, Johnson seems to attract the undecided voters in a two candidate race when it becomes three.
 
I think Johnson helps Hillary.
 
American;bt3499 said:
I think Johnson helps Hillary.

That's what most pundits and political prognosticators also think. From what I have found out it all varies via the different states. I think the bottom line is those who vote for Johnson or most of them anyway were not available to either Clinton or Trump.

Johnson gives those who want to vote for their favorite senator or congressional candidate, vote for candidates further down the line a way out of not having to vote for either Trump or Clinton. In other words, perhaps there will be less of this voting for the lesser of two evils or the least worst candidate. Time will tell.

The thing is in poll after poll you have around 15-20% of the electorate stating they either will not vote or vote for a third party candidate. It is these folks that will end up voting for Johnson or perhaps Jill Stein of the Green Party or some other third party candidate. Probably more so this year in which the majority of Americans are disgusted with the choice between Trump and Clinton. A lot do not want to make that choice. We'll see, as the election nears we will be better able to determine whom is hurt more.

But in the polls I mention Johnson seems to be drawing from the undecideds or from those who stated they would be saying home more so than directly from the two candidates. I know both Trump and Clinton dropped in percentages with the addition of Johnson. But that drop was in the voters who were given only two choices, Trump or Clinton, Johnson the third choice or option was not mentioned. When he was, he did get votes from Trump and Clinton. Does this count as taking votes away from the two major party candidates? I don't think so, because they were looking for someone else to begin with.
 
I'm sure you're also seeing the effect of the Libertarian candidate in down-ballot races, such as the North Carolina Senate.

Romney and Huntsman Sr. would seem to have a lot in common with the Johnson/Weld ticket--and would certainly provide the necessary cash infusion.

GJ has a great window to get his message out right now, with the two conventions five weeks away. They need to go for as much free media time as possible .
 
NIMBY;bt3502 said:
I'm sure you're also seeing the effect of the Libertarian candidate in down-ballot races, such as the North Carolina Senate.

Romney and Huntsman Sr. would seem to have a lot in common with the Johnson/Weld ticket--and would certainly provide the necessary cash infusion.

GJ has a great window to get his message out right now, with the two conventions five weeks away. They need to go for as much free media time as possible .


The problem with Johnson is he will not have well over a billion dollars at his disposal. I read where Clinton expects to collect and spent well over a billion and a half. Trump is sure to come close to that. Johnson raised and spent close to three million in 2012. I backed and voted for him in 2012 as you well know.

I whole heartily believe Johnson/Weld is the best ticket to solve this country's problem and put this nation back on the right track. I do not think either Trump or Clinton has that capability.
 
Hi Perot,

Hard to say, but I'd guess that since Trump is essentially a liberal, a libertarian candidate of any strength would take votes from both of the main parties and fairly equally. Johnson has a mixed bag platform that would attract conservatives for some things but be rejected by them for other reasons with liberals viewing him in the opposite way. Johnson's one policy position that could change some outcomes would be his stance on marijuana, which could bring out some of the young Sanders vote that will have no place to park and may stay home.

All considered, I think Johnson's effect will be negligible and it looks like Clinton, unless indicted, will win fairly easily.
 
CanadaJohn;bt3511 said:
Hi Perot,

Hard to say, but I'd guess that since Trump is essentially a liberal, a libertarian candidate of any strength would take votes from both of the main parties and fairly equally. Johnson has a mixed bag platform that would attract conservatives for some things but be rejected by them for other reasons with liberals viewing him in the opposite way. Johnson's one policy position that could change some outcomes would be his stance on marijuana, which could bring out some of the young Sanders vote that will have no place to park and may stay home.

All considered, I think Johnson's effect will be negligible and it looks like Clinton, unless indicted, will win fairly easily.


I agree CJ. Johnson is a fiscal conservative and a social liberal. So the religious conservatives will be turned off by him. By searching the polls, you're correct. Right now Johnson is drawing roughly 4% from each candidate give or take a tenth of one percent. But he is picking 4% of the undecided in a two candidate race. Actually it is much more. By that I mean around 14-18% of the electorate is undecided in a two candidate race. Johnson get 4% of that 14-18% meaning he is picking up 25% of the undecideds.

I also agree that it looks like Clinton in a landslide if she isn't indicted first.
 
Gary Johnson might prevent either candidate from getting to the 270-needed.
 
Abbazorkzog;bt3514 said:
Gary Johnson might prevent either candidate from getting to the 270-needed.


To do that Johnson would have to win at least one state and he is garnering only around 10% nationally at the moment. But Johnson is getting 12% in Michigan, 13% in Mississippi, 14% in New Mexico, 16% in Utah. All the rest Johnson is getting 6% or less. He isn't even close to where he would win a state.

Remember Perot received 19% of the total vote in 1992, yet he failed to win a single state. Johnson as of now is only at 10% nationally. Then once the regular campaign starts for the general, both Trump and Clinton will be spending somewhere between a one and two billion dollars each flooding the airways with their political ads and message. Johnson may have 3 or 4 million. He can't compete with the candidates of the two major parties in the money game.

The only thing Johnson has going for him is he isn't Trump or Clinton. Until Johnson can get in the 30-40% range of the vote in some states, don't worry about him getting any electoral votes. It won't happen.
 
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