Now that Gary Johnson is the Libertarian Candidate, the question arises which candidate, Trump or Clinton will he hurt the most? It is no secret the electorate as a whole dislike both the Republican and Democratic nominees usually within the 60-70% range. But Johnson will not have the billions to spend to get his message out that Trump and Clinton will have, perhaps 2 to 3 million. Nonetheless, Johnson is not Trump or Clinton which plays to his advantage. But back to my original question, which candidate will he hurt the most? Conventional wisdom and political Pundits say the answer is Trump. Johnson will take more votes from Trump than Clinton. But is that true? Johnson is fiscally conservative and socially liberal, not someone the disaffected social conservatives of the Republican Party will turn to. Let’s look at 4 recent national polls.
Without Johnson Quinnipiac has the race Clinton 45, Trump 41.
Johnson included, Clinton 40, Trump 38, Johnson 5.
Without Johnson Fox News has the race Clinton 42, Trump 45
Johnson included, Clinton 39, Trump 42, Johnson 10
Without Johnson PPP has the race Clinton 47, Trump 41
Johnson included, Clinton 42, Trump 38, Johnson 4.
Without Johnson Monmouth has the race Clinton 48, Trump 38
Johnson included, Clinton 42, Trump 34, Johnson 11.
Looking at only the national polls above that included Johnson, Clinton’s total dropped 19 points in the 4 polls for an average drop of 4.75%. Trump dropped 13 points for an average drop of 3.25% with Johnson in the race. On the surface it does seem Johnson is pulling more votes from Clinton than Trump by a very small margin of 1.5%. Most folks will scoff at that, but G.W. Bush had gained that 1.5% margin he would have won the popular vote in 2000. He won the electoral college, so the national popular vote was irrelevant. Now there are some state polls speaking of the electoral college that include Johnson. Do they match the national average of hurting Clinton by a point and a half?
Arizona without Johnson, Trump 45, Clinton 41
With Johnson Trump 40, Clinton 38, Johnson 6
Arizona goes against the national averages and Johnson hurts Trump more.
California without Johnson Trump 34, Clinton 53
With Johnson, Trump 33, Clinton 45, Johnson 6
The number of undecideds increase with Johnson in the race, he definitely hurts Clinton more here.
Georgia without Johnson Trump 49, Clinton 40
With Johnson Trump 45, Clinton 38, Johnson 6
Georgia also goes against the national average; Trump is hurt more in Georgia than Clinton
Michigan without Johnson Trump 39, Clinton 43
With Johnson Trump 33, Clinton 37, Johnson 12.
Michigan looks like a good state for Johnson, but he takes evenly from both Trump and Clinton each losing 4 points, but Johnson gets an additional 4 points in the undecideds between only a two candidate race. Interesting.
Mississippi without Johnson Trump 46, Clinton 43
With Johnson Trump 38, Clinton 38, Johnson 13.
Another good state for Johnson, he puts Clinton and Trump into a tie. Mississippi is also going against the national average.
New Jersey without Johnson Trump 34, Clinton 38
With Johnson Trump 31, Clinton 37, Johnson 5
Johnson helps Clinton in New Jersey.
North Carolina without Johnson Trump 47, Clinton 43
With Johnson, Trump 39, Clinton 36, Johnson 8
Virginia without Johnson, Trump 41, Clinton 45
With Johnson, Trump 38, Clinton 44, Johnson 6
Johnson hurts Trump here.
There are the numbers, make up your own mind whom Johnson will hurt more or help which candidate. It is a mixed bag as far as I am concerned at the state level. But one thing does stand out, Johnson seems to attract the undecided voters in a two candidate race when it becomes three.
Without Johnson Quinnipiac has the race Clinton 45, Trump 41.
Johnson included, Clinton 40, Trump 38, Johnson 5.
Without Johnson Fox News has the race Clinton 42, Trump 45
Johnson included, Clinton 39, Trump 42, Johnson 10
Without Johnson PPP has the race Clinton 47, Trump 41
Johnson included, Clinton 42, Trump 38, Johnson 4.
Without Johnson Monmouth has the race Clinton 48, Trump 38
Johnson included, Clinton 42, Trump 34, Johnson 11.
Looking at only the national polls above that included Johnson, Clinton’s total dropped 19 points in the 4 polls for an average drop of 4.75%. Trump dropped 13 points for an average drop of 3.25% with Johnson in the race. On the surface it does seem Johnson is pulling more votes from Clinton than Trump by a very small margin of 1.5%. Most folks will scoff at that, but G.W. Bush had gained that 1.5% margin he would have won the popular vote in 2000. He won the electoral college, so the national popular vote was irrelevant. Now there are some state polls speaking of the electoral college that include Johnson. Do they match the national average of hurting Clinton by a point and a half?
Arizona without Johnson, Trump 45, Clinton 41
With Johnson Trump 40, Clinton 38, Johnson 6
Arizona goes against the national averages and Johnson hurts Trump more.
California without Johnson Trump 34, Clinton 53
With Johnson, Trump 33, Clinton 45, Johnson 6
The number of undecideds increase with Johnson in the race, he definitely hurts Clinton more here.
Georgia without Johnson Trump 49, Clinton 40
With Johnson Trump 45, Clinton 38, Johnson 6
Georgia also goes against the national average; Trump is hurt more in Georgia than Clinton
Michigan without Johnson Trump 39, Clinton 43
With Johnson Trump 33, Clinton 37, Johnson 12.
Michigan looks like a good state for Johnson, but he takes evenly from both Trump and Clinton each losing 4 points, but Johnson gets an additional 4 points in the undecideds between only a two candidate race. Interesting.
Mississippi without Johnson Trump 46, Clinton 43
With Johnson Trump 38, Clinton 38, Johnson 13.
Another good state for Johnson, he puts Clinton and Trump into a tie. Mississippi is also going against the national average.
New Jersey without Johnson Trump 34, Clinton 38
With Johnson Trump 31, Clinton 37, Johnson 5
Johnson helps Clinton in New Jersey.
North Carolina without Johnson Trump 47, Clinton 43
With Johnson, Trump 39, Clinton 36, Johnson 8
Virginia without Johnson, Trump 41, Clinton 45
With Johnson, Trump 38, Clinton 44, Johnson 6
Johnson hurts Trump here.
There are the numbers, make up your own mind whom Johnson will hurt more or help which candidate. It is a mixed bag as far as I am concerned at the state level. But one thing does stand out, Johnson seems to attract the undecided voters in a two candidate race when it becomes three.