Lessons china is learning from Ukraine to plan their attack on Taiwan

[Craig234]

I'd say lesson one is, win quickly, don't drag it out. Which they can easily do.

Lesson two is, protect themselves from global sanctions. Russia tried to with a 'fortress economy', but are greatly hurt by sanctions. China isn't dependent on foreign payment services like Visa/Mastercard; delivery services; shipping companies; big tech, etc. On the contrary, for example they control 75% of the global supply of rare metals the west needs for key products like computers, cell phones, and vehicles.

 

[Noodlegawd]

Which they can easily do.

How do you figure?

 

[maxparrish]

I'd say lesson one is, win quickly, don't drag it out. Which they can easily do.

Lesson two is, protect themselves from global sanctions. Russia tried to with a 'fortress economy', but are greatly hurt by sanctions. China isn't dependent on foreign payment services like Visa/Mastercard; delivery services; shipping companies; big tech, etc. On the contrary, for example they control 75% of the global supply of rare metals the west needs for key products like computers, cell phones, and vehicles.

I'd say the first lesson is, Tiawan may become so loaded with personal anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles than an invasion would be a disaster.

The second lesson is geography matters; a sea crossing of 100 miles, a terrain that has fewer all-weather roads, is difficult...especially if you don't have enough fuel trucks and general-purpose trucks.

The third lesson is that unlike Ukraine, Tiawan is extremely mountainous, and bridges are easily downed across their plunging and deep ravines and local rail will not be available to Chinese forces (locomotives will be destroyed if threatened with capture). Long range artillery and missile fire will rain hell on the few invasions beaches the defenders will not be subject to direct return fire, and any advance into the mountains (which is most of Tiawan) will be very difficult.

The Taiwanese, sufficiently armed with land based anti-ship missiles, combined with key airpower, would demolish most Chinese shipping before it arrived.

In short, the topography of Tiawan, and its higher quality and quantity of weaponry would be imposing than that faced by the Russians in Ukraine.

 

[Cardinal]

I have no way of knowing how close to reality this projection of a Chinese invasion would be. It seems more a little fan-fic-y to me, especially considering the total lack of anti-missile defense.

 

[sanman]

I have no way of knowing how close to reality this projection of a Chinese invasion would be. It seems more a little fan-fic-y to me, especially considering the total lack of anti-missile defense.

China has a huge number of dedicated missile batteries positioned in Fujian, on the other side of the straits. Presumably, they'd be able to over-saturate any missile defenses Taiwan has.

Taiwan doesn't have any access to THAAD, or any really high-performance missile defense system.

 

[Brochacholomigo]

Russia and China have fundamentally different approaches to international influence. Where Russia is essentially a gas station with an army (they mostly export raw material like a 3rd world country, while paradoxically having a 1st world military propped up at the expense of their citizens), China is the earth's factory with exactly one overseas military base in Djibouti (to Russia's 21+ and America's 700+). When and if China envelops Taiwan and reabsorbs the last shard of the Kuomintang, it will be through economic coercion rather than military - they've already managed to prevent most of the earth from recognizing Taiwan as a sovereign state through sheer economic clout, and it's not hard to imagine them eventually reaching a point where they can completely shut down a small country's international trade through sanctions the same way America can today. Taiwan has few natural resources to exploit, and much of their economy is tied up in manufacturing; if China managed to cut their economic ties to the 180-ish nations that recognize the PRC but not the ROC, they would have little choice but to submit to the mainland.

 

[Craig234]

Russia and China have fundamentally different approaches to international influence. Where Russia is essentially a gas station with an army (they mostly export raw material like a 3rd world country, while paradoxically having a 1st world military propped up at the expense of their citizens), China is the earth's factory with exactly one overseas military base in Djibouti (to Russia's 21+ and America's 700+). When and if China envelops Taiwan and reabsorbs the last shard of the Kuomintang, it will be through economic coercion rather than military - they've already managed to prevent most of the earth from recognizing Taiwan as a sovereign state through sheer economic clout, and it's not hard to imagine them eventually reaching a point where they can completely shut down a small country's international trade through sanctions the same way America can today. Taiwan has few natural resources to exploit, and much of their economy is tied up in manufacturing; if China managed to cut their economic ties to the 180-ish nations that recognize the PRC but not the ROC, they would have little choice but to submit to the mainland.

I don't think that's their likely approach. They've used force with similar conquests, and they've built the Chinese people into a frenzy wanting Taiwan attacked. It seems more likely to see demand, threats, and finally force if needed. The US has less leverage - they've already acknowledged Taiwan is part of China, unlike Ukraine.

 

[ChickenTendies]

Economically what China learned is to boost domestic production and to make the yuan a viable foreign exchange currency. Militarily they need to focus on developing heavy attack helicopters that can withstand MANPADs and missiles, as well as properly deploying these airborne forces. Massive amounts of saturated sorties and missile strikes would be needed with higher joint coordination, targeting strategic locations and military .

EW aircraft would be actively used in order to jam all electric stations, cell towers, internet providers and communication lines along with undercover agents spreading panic. Whilst SEAD aircraft like the J-20 and J-16 destroy major air defense, swarm UAVS would be used to target the more mobile, minor ones. Then H-6s/JH-7 bombers will sweep through and provide air support. More exercises to improve joint operation capabilities will be needed for an invasion like this to go smoothly. In the case of ISR assets feeding data PLAN can cut their SLOC and jam/strike their microwave transceivers (to disable their civil internet feed and impose a partial media blackout). Undersea internet cables will be cut. Massive cyber attacks would cripple key infrastructure and communications.

Taiwan is only implementing asymmetrical warfare on the surface, instead of investing in cheap missile boats and drones, they're investing in fighter jets (when they're outmatched in quality and quantity) and missiles that can hit the Chinese mainland as "deterrence" (not gonna work).

I do not think an easy capitulation would occur which would result in heavy urban warfare.

 

[Craig234]

And they learned to launch it better than building on the border for months lying. Instead, on Halloween, they'll send hundreds of thousands of mainland tourists to Taiwan, all young men, in soldier costumers.

Trick or treat.

 

[CaughtInThe]

China and Russia don't have enough actual landmass. They both need more.

 

[The flaming lib]

Don’t forget. Attack while China Joe is still potus.

 

[Craig234]

China Joe.

That's an idiotic nickname, it'd make more sense to add China to your name.

 

[jnug]

I'd say lesson one is, win quickly, don't drag it out. Which they can easily do.

Lesson two is, protect themselves from global sanctions. Russia tried to with a 'fortress economy', but are greatly hurt by sanctions. China isn't dependent on foreign payment services like Visa/Mastercard; delivery services; shipping companies; big tech, etc. On the contrary, for example they control 75% of the global supply of rare metals the west needs for key products like computers, cell phones, and vehicles.

I would say their lesson one is DON'T DO IT.