Latin American Spring

[Masterhawk]

It seems that a wave of protests has erupted in Latin America. it's somewhat similar to the Arab Spring which was a series of demonstrations in favor of democracy.

The protests in Guatemala are in response to some actions by President Jimmy Morales such as dismantling the UN backed International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala. They're also against the migrant asylum pact made with the US (which would make Guatemala the place to seek asylum rather than the US).

The protests in Haiti are against the tax hikes on gasoline, diesel, and kerosene. They're also protests against corruption. So far, 51 deaths have been documented from this protest and dozens have been injured.

People in Ecuador didn't like the removal of the fuel subsidies as well as austerity in general. They lasted from October 3 to October 14 and the fuel subsidies were restored.

Protests in Nicaragua began on April of 2018. They were in response to social security reform (cutting benefits and raising taxes), the proposed Nicaraguan canal, and alleged authoritarianism by President Ortega (in the form of restrictions on media outlets and police brutality). So far, 325-568 died, 2,800+ were injured, and 600-1,500 were detained.

The people in Chile seem to have been disatisfied with inequality in general. The boiling point was the hike in transit fares. Although the fares were soon removed, the protests still remain with demands of reforms in education and healthcare, raising the minimum wage, and the resignation of President Pinera. In response to the protests, a few regions declared a state of emergency and have instituted curfews. The protests started in October 14 and 26 have died, 11,564 were injured, and 6,362 were detained.

Peru has experienced protests in bursts with the current one dating back to the end of 2018. It seems to be in response to political instability.

Argentina has experienced protests due to President Macri's conservative policies. They blame him for the current financial troubles and the country will have a new president within a few days.

Colombia has experienced protests in response to corruption and austerity. They are also demonstrations in favor of peace negotiations with the communist militants. Curfews have been instituted in Santiago de Cali and Bogota. So far, there have been 4 deaths, 533 injuries, and 500 detained.

As you may notice, most of these protests are against corruption and/or fiscally conservative policies. However, there have been at least two leftist governments affected by these protests. In Bolivia, there was a referendum in 2016 to allow President Evo Morales to run for a third term. The referendum failed but the Supreme Court threw out the results, saying that they were rigged, allowing Morales to run again. When the 2019 elections came around, Morales won but it was alleged that they were rigged. This led to protests from October 21 to November 10 on which Morales resigned when the military sided with the protesters. However, Morales's supporters (as well as many other leftists) decried all of this as a military coup and western meddling. Pro Morales protests are ongoing. Morales is currently in exile. Many of you already know about Venezuela's protests. From January 10 to February, 500 have been injured and 956 (77 being children) have been detained and by March, 107 people had died.

Could we be seeing a Latin American Spring or will these protests dissipate?

 

[Felis Leo]

Could we be seeing a Latin American Spring or will these protests dissipate?

I'm afraid little to nothing good will come out of all this, Masterhawk. In Latin America, corrupt authoritarian right-wing governments are replaced by corrupt authoritarian left-wing governments, and corrupt authoritarian left-wing governments are replaced by corrupt authoritarian right-wing governments. Violent protests, military coups, and suppression cannot replace rule of law, and, sadly, popular discontent and these outbursts of protests can rarely put in place a carefully laid-out system that encourages rule of law. Likely it will all be the same in a decade.

 

[Evilroddy]

It seems that a wave of protests has erupted in Latin America. it's somewhat similar to the Arab Spring which was a series of demonstrations in favor of democracy.

The protests in Guatemala are in response to some actions by President Jimmy Morales such as dismantling the UN backed International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala. They're also against the migrant asylum pact made with the US (which would make Guatemala the place to seek asylum rather than the US).

...

People in Ecuador didn't like the removal of the fuel subsidies as well as austerity in general. They lasted from October 3 to October 14 and the fuel subsidies were restored.

Protests in Nicaragua began on April of 2018. They were in response to social security reform (cutting benefits and raising taxes), the proposed Nicaraguan canal, and alleged authoritarianism by President Ortega (in the form of restrictions on media outlets and police brutality). So far, 325-568 died, 2,800+ were injured, and 600-1,500 were detained.

The people in Chile seem to have been disatisfied with inequality in general. The boiling point was the hike in transit fares. Although the fares were soon removed, the protests still remain with demands of reforms in education and healthcare, raising the minimum wage, and the resignation of President Pinera. In response to the protests, a few regions declared a state of emergency and have instituted curfews. The protests started in October 14 and 26 have died, 11,564 were injured, and 6,362 were detained.

Peru has experienced protests in bursts with the current one dating back to the end of 2018. It seems to be in response to political instability.

Argentina has experienced protests due to President Macri's conservative policies. They blame him for the current financial troubles and the country will have a new president within a few days.

Colombia has experienced protests in response to corruption and austerity. They are also demonstrations in favor of peace negotiations with the communist militants. Curfews have been instituted in Santiago de Cali and Bogota. So far, there have been 4 deaths, 533 injuries, and 500 detained.

As you may notice, most of these protests are against corruption and/or fiscally conservative policies. However, there have been at least two leftist governments affected by these protests. In Bolivia, there was a referendum in 2016 to allow President Evo Morales to run for a third term. The referendum failed but the Supreme Court threw out the results, saying that they were rigged, allowing Morales to run again. When the 2019 elections came around, Morales won but it was alleged that they were rigged. This led to protests from October 21 to November 10 on which Morales resigned when the military sided with the protesters. However, Morales's supporters (as well as many other leftists) decried all of this as a military coup and western meddling. Pro Morales protests are ongoing. Morales is currently in exile. Many of you already know about Venezuela's protests. From January 10 to February, 500 have been injured and 956 (77 being children) have been detained and by March, 107 people had died.

Could we be seeing a Latin American Spring or will these protests dissipate?

Quote edited for word count.

Masterhawk:

You did not mention the indigenous people of Bolivia who are rising up against the ousting of Evo Morales by right-wing elites of European descent. Nor the continuing struggle of Hondurans to correct their stolen election. Yes, the right-wing libertarian think-tanks which have been fostering authoritarian governments in Latin America can only go so far before their rhetoric and spin ring hollow. Then it's time for the US-trained special police, militaries and or paramilitaries to impose the rule of elites on the wider populous. That's when it gets ugly.

On the other side of the coin, it would be nice if a truely homegrown resistance could circumvent the Guaido "resistance" and it's US backers in order to remove the Maduro executive and have new elections without the former bus-driver driving Venezuela over the cliff while the US stocks the waters below with hungry right-wing crocodiles like Lopez and Guaido.

Next Lula should wait until the next Brazilian election now that he has been released from jail due to the corruption of the "Car Wash" investigation under Moro. Then he can kick that monster in the making to the curb peacefully and then put Brazil on a better centrist-left trajectory again.

So, yes, let's hope 2020 brings the Latin American Spring which topples authoritarians from Guatemala to Southern Chile and gives the locals strong elected governments who can cooperate in order to with stand the power of the North.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.

 

[Masterhawk]

I'm afraid little to nothing good will come out of all this, Masterhawk. In Latin America, corrupt authoritarian right-wing governments are replaced by corrupt authoritarian left-wing governments, and corrupt authoritarian left-wing governments are replaced by corrupt authoritarian right-wing governments. Violent protests, military coups, and suppression cannot replace rule of law, and, sadly, popular discontent and these outbursts of protests can rarely put in place a carefully laid-out system that encourages rule of law. Likely it will all be the same in a decade.

I think it's best to let it happen. Eventually, the people will see leftism for what it really is and demand change. This is already happening in Cuba and Venezuela. If the US can be blamed for intervention, the masses will continue to see leftist figures as heroes of the people.

 

[Masterhawk]

Quote edited for word count.

Masterhawk:

You did not mention the indigenous people of Bolivia who are rising up against the ousting of Evo Morales by right-wing elites of European descent. Nor the continuing struggle of Hondurans to correct their stolen election. Yes, the right-wing libertarian think-tanks which have been fostering authoritarian governments in Latin America can only go so far before their rhetoric and spin ring hollow. Then it's time for the US-trained special police, militaries and or paramilitaries to impose the rule of elites on the wider populous. That's when it gets ugly.

On the other side of the coin, it would be nice if a truely homegrown resistance could circumvent the Guaido "resistance" and it's US backers in order to remove the Maduro executive and have new elections without the former bus-driver driving Venezuela over the cliff while the US stocks the waters below with hungry right-wing crocodiles like Lopez and Guaido.

Next Lula should wait until the next Brazilian election now that he has been released from jail due to the corruption of the "Car Wash" investigation under Moro. Then he can kick that monster in the making to the curb peacefully and then put Brazil on a better centrist-left trajectory again.

So, yes, let's hope 2020 brings the Latin American Spring which topples authoritarians from Guatemala to Southern Chile and gives the locals strong elected governments who can cooperate in order to with stand the power of the North.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.

I was doing a general overview. If I was specifically talking about Bolivia or doing a paper on this subject, I would have probably mentioned that Bolivia has a native majority or that it was only natural that leftism would flourish in Latin America due to its history of elitism.

 

[TheParser]

Could we be seeing a Latin American Spring or will these protests dissipate?

If history is any guide, these protests will dissipate as happened in the Middle East. (After all the wars, deaths, and refugees caused by the Arab Spring, only Tunisia, I understand, has become a genuine democracy.)

 

[Drawdown]

It seems that a wave of protests has erupted in Latin America. it's somewhat similar to the Arab Spring which was a series of demonstrations in favor of democracy.

The protests in Guatemala are in response to some actions by President Jimmy Morales such as dismantling the UN backed International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala. They're also against the migrant asylum pact made with the US (which would make Guatemala the place to seek asylum rather than the US).

The protests in Haiti are against the tax hikes on gasoline, diesel, and kerosene. They're also protests against corruption. So far, 51 deaths have been documented from this protest and dozens have been injured.

People in Ecuador didn't like the removal of the fuel subsidies as well as austerity in general. They lasted from October 3 to October 14 and the fuel subsidies were restored.

Protests in Nicaragua began on April of 2018. They were in response to social security reform (cutting benefits and raising taxes), the proposed Nicaraguan canal, and alleged authoritarianism by President Ortega (in the form of restrictions on media outlets and police brutality). So far, 325-568 died, 2,800+ were injured, and 600-1,500 were detained.

The people in Chile seem to have been disatisfied with inequality in general. The boiling point was the hike in transit fares. Although the fares were soon removed, the protests still remain with demands of reforms in education and healthcare, raising the minimum wage, and the resignation of President Pinera. In response to the protests, a few regions declared a state of emergency and have instituted curfews. The protests started in October 14 and 26 have died, 11,564 were injured, and 6,362 were detained.

Peru has experienced protests in bursts with the current one dating back to the end of 2018. It seems to be in response to political instability.

Argentina has experienced protests due to President Macri's conservative policies. They blame him for the current financial troubles and the country will have a new president within a few days.

Colombia has experienced protests in response to corruption and austerity. They are also demonstrations in favor of peace negotiations with the communist militants. Curfews have been instituted in Santiago de Cali and Bogota. So far, there have been 4 deaths, 533 injuries, and 500 detained.

As you may notice, most of these protests are against corruption and/or fiscally conservative policies. However, there have been at least two leftist governments affected by these protests. In Bolivia, there was a referendum in 2016 to allow President Evo Morales to run for a third term. The referendum failed but the Supreme Court threw out the results, saying that they were rigged, allowing Morales to run again. When the 2019 elections came around, Morales won but it was alleged that they were rigged. This led to protests from October 21 to November 10 on which Morales resigned when the military sided with the protesters. However, Morales's supporters (as well as many other leftists) decried all of this as a military coup and western meddling. Pro Morales protests are ongoing. Morales is currently in exile. Many of you already know about Venezuela's protests. From January 10 to February, 500 have been injured and 956 (77 being children) have been detained and by March, 107 people had died.

Could we be seeing a Latin American Spring or will these protests dissipate?

They will not bring about significant change. The thing is they should be rising up against something other than bus fairs and taxes, but they are not

 

[Masterhawk]

If history is any guide, these protests will dissipate as happened in the Middle East. (After all the wars, deaths, and refugees caused by the Arab Spring, only Tunisia, I understand, has become a genuine democracy.)

In the Middle East, a handful of them escalated into civil wars but most of them were about minor changes (at least when compared to regime change) which were successful. For example, the demonstrations in Morocco were about turning the absolute monarchy into a constitutional monarchy and there was one in Algeria which got a regime change and removed a 19 year old state in emergency. I generally don't see any of these protests escalating to civil war (except maybe in Venezuela). I could see most of the protests dying down without actually making any change (except maybe in the ballot box).