Larry Sabato: Hillary Solid Victory

[cpwill]

All the polls taken in the primaries in head to head match ups showed Kasich beating Clinton, Rubio too. There was one candidate however who always lost in head to head match up with Clinton, Trump. Even Cruz was running even with Clinton, Carson before that was also beating Clinton.

But 40% of Republicans had to make a statement against the Republican elected officials, the party leaders and the so called establishment. By making that statement they handed the White House on a silver platter to Hillary Clinton. They deserve a President Clinton, that is getting exactly what they asked for in nominating Trump. But the rest of the nation doesn't.

Truth. Trumpkins chose to shoot themselves in the face to spite the party.

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[tres borrachos]

Truth. Trumpkins chose to shoot themselves in the face to spite the party.

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At this point, I'd be happy if they limited the shooting to themselves. The problem is they also shot decent people, like us.

 

[Anagram]

Remember those BREXIT polls in late June?

Hillary's average is a few point's higher than Remain was over the last week. And British polling has been historically spotty over referendum questions. American polling has a history of being fairly good.

Trump's not done. But you need to argue that the polls are fundamentally off in a way far greater than they've ever been the last 20 years to argue that he's not behind.

 

[reinoe]

The only person who can defeat Trump is Trump. And he may very well do just that. I'm shocked he hasn't had his phone taken away so that he can't twitter willy-nilly. I suspect he's going to get destroyed in the debates. Between biased mods and his refusal to study up on the issues (he should be doing that right now but likely isn't) I could see it being a bloodbath.

 

[Texmex]

I think Trump is going to get crushed, the idiot cannot keep his mouth shut. He cannot stay on target, he cannot help but to throw petty insults around like Pez. He could make up ground, as pointed out in the article, if he behaved like a Presidential candidate instead of a petulant child. But I don't see him doing that at all. Maybe...but at this point, it doesn't seem likely.

So Trump is likely to lose, ergo might as well vote for Johnson.

I don't think it matters how Donald Trump changes at this time. If he, all of a sudden, was able to become the perfect candidate, he would still have to answer for the myriad of things he as already said. This would involve a lot of apologizing and I don't think Trump can do this.

 

[Skeptic Bob]

There is a zero percent chance he will stay on message. He is constantly watching the news and playing on Twitter. Anytime anyone with an audience criticizes him he is compelled to lash out.

 

[Perotista]

I remember those primary polls. They were even discussed on left leaning stations like MSNBC and run, over and over, in places like the NY Times. Yup, they proudly give the middle finger to the "Establishment" and the RNC and Boehner and Ryan and McConnell and everyone else they decided slighted them somehow. The same people who complained that Mitt Romney was a RINO nominated a lifelong, Liberal Democrat masquerading as a Republican. A man who as recently as 2008 was telling everyone what a great woman Hillary Clinton was and what a great President she would make and all the while donating to her and Chuck Schumer and Dick Durbin and every lousy Liberal he could. But they wanted to send a statement!

Hillary Clinton was probably one of the most beatable Democratic candidates I will ever see in my lifetime. Maybe Walter Mondale was more beatable, but he was going up against Reagan at the height of his approval.

This election would have been won by Kasich, Rubio, Walker, Perry, Pataki, Carson, we could go on. But it was made clear in every poll for months that the one person who was guaranteed to lose to her was Trump.

Hillary is laying in her bed at night, laughing her ass off about this. And I don't blame her.

Exactly, oh GOP, what has thou wrought?

 

[Perotista]

Truth. Trumpkins chose to shoot themselves in the face to spite the party.

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Exactly, it almost seems Trump's intentions is to destroy the GOP so Hillary can win. I can't explain it any other way.

 

[upsideguy]

Yeah, it's not looking good for him. There was a poll today showing Clinton with a four point lead in Georgia. Now she probably won't actually win Georgia because she's still in the midst of her convention bounce and things will likely converge somewhat. But not even on her best day should Hillary Clinton be leading by four in Georgia.

True, Georgia should not yet be a blue state, but it is, in its own right, becoming increasingly purple, as is Arizona. This election may just expose that trend.

 

[roughdraft274]

I don't think it matters how Donald Trump changes at this time. If he, all of a sudden, was able to become the perfect candidate, he would still have to answer for the myriad of things he as already said. This would involve a lot of apologizing and I don't think Trump can do this.

Three amazing debates and a well planned campaign he could pull out of it. Turn the attacks on Hillary up etc. it's not impossible.

With that said I don't think he's capable of actually doing what is needed. But it's theoretically possible imo especially with the debates still coming up.


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[roughdraft274]

This election would have been won by Kasich, Rubio, Walker, Perry, Pataki, Carson, we could go on. But it was made clear in every poll for months that the one person who was guaranteed to lose to her was Trump.

Ben Carson? Really? He has no redeeming quality what so ever besides him being very polite and a very talented surgeon. He'd get clobbered in debates. I think Hillary would fairly easily beat him. Everyone else it would be a tough election but they'd certainly have the edge with all of clintons baggage.


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[upsideguy]

He's coming to New Hampshire tomorrow night. The NH Republicans invited me. I could even get front row seats if I volunteer to work the crowd.

I told them to go eff themselves.

They might throw in a express pass to the front of the Scott Baio autograph line.

 

[tres borrachos]

Ben Carson? Really? He has no redeeming quality what so ever besides him being very polite and a very talented surgeon. He'd get clobbered in debates. I think Hillary would fairly easily beat him. Everyone else it would be a tough election but they'd certainly have the edge with all of clintons baggage.


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Carson was periodically polling ahead of her, as Pero pointed out. My post didn't have anything to do with my opinion of him.

 

[tres borrachos]

They might throw in a express pass to the front of the Scott Baio autograph line.

That would be tough to pass up. Once upon a time, I had mad love for Scott.

 

[tres borrachos]

Exactly, it almost seems Trump's intentions is to destroy the GOP so Hillary can win. I can't explain it any other way.

I've said the same thing repeatedly. There is no other logical explanation for all of this, except he is doing this intentionally. Maybe this is the way he can finally get what he repeatedly said he wanted in 2008 - Hillary Clinton as President.

I don't like conspiracy theories, but I can't shake the feeling here.

 

[roughdraft274]

Carson was periodically polling ahead of her, as Pero pointed out. My post didn't have anything to do with my opinion of him.

Hmm. Maybe that was when he had that bump in the polls. I just can't imagine him beating Hillary. But I guess it's possible.


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[Perotista]

I've said the same thing repeatedly. There is no other logical explanation for all of this, except he is doing this intentionally. Maybe this is the way he can finally get what he repeatedly said he wanted in 2008 - Hillary Clinton as President.

I don't like conspiracy theories, but I can't shake the feeling here.

Could be a conspiracy theory. I will tell you something a Republican county chairman down here told me last July or August, 2015 that is. Of course I laughed at him then, but not now. He said the only reason Trump was running as a Republicans was to cause havoc and division within the Republican Party. To leave them in disarray. Trump was doing this to ensure Hillary would win and he cited a phone call between Trump and Bill and Hillary Clinton a week before Trump announced. Now that was a year ago.

One also has to remember up until Trump announced, he and the Clinton were close friends. So you are not the only one wondering. Trump can't be this dumb. I don't think he ever envisioned winning the nomination.

 

[upsideguy]

That would be tough to pass up. Once upon a time, I had mad love for Scott.

That is ok, mine was for Maureen McCormack, and she turned out to be a disappointment as well.

 

[Mycroft]

Look at all the Winning!

Gosh, I'm getting so sick of all this winning. Please Mr Trump, can you stop winning so much?


Winning!


Or, you know, losing.



But don't worry - Sabato knows how Trump can start to make up lost ground:



All he has to do is stop being Donald Trump, and become someone with more impulse control than a toddler, who is able to stay laser-like on message, instead.


Way to go, GOP. Way to go.

I don't know who this Sabato guy is or what makes him notable enough so that anybody would listen to him, but hey...maybe Trump will listen to him and go ahead to win.

I'd be happy about that because we would be dodging that Hillary bullet that's aim at the heart of...well, of pretty much everybody.

 

[cpwill]

I don't know who this Sabato guy is or what makes him notable enough so that anybody would listen to him

You've really never heard of Larry Sabato?

Um. There is a really good reason why people listen to him. He's really good at this.

maybe Trump will listen to him

:2funny:

:lol: Trump can't be anyone other than Trump, man. No Pivot is coming. :lol:

I'd be happy about that because we would be dodging that Hillary bullet that's aim at the heart of...well, of pretty much everybody.

:shrug: Frying Pan, Fire, Pot, Kettle, Etc.

 

[tres borrachos]

That is ok, mine was for Maureen McCormack, and she turned out to be a disappointment as well.

AHA! You and Barry Williams both, although after reading his book, it turns out he got to act on it.

She had a somewhat whacked out life. Drugs, sex for drugs...not what we expected from Marcia. She looks pretty good now though.

 

[tres borrachos]

Could be a conspiracy theory. I will tell you something a Republican county chairman down here told me last July or August, 2015 that is. Of course I laughed at him then, but not now. He said the only reason Trump was running as a Republicans was to cause havoc and division within the Republican Party. To leave them in disarray. Trump was doing this to ensure Hillary would win and he cited a phone call between Trump and Bill and Hillary Clinton a week before Trump announced. Now that was a year ago.

One also has to remember up until Trump announced, he and the Clinton were close friends. So you are not the only one wondering. Trump can't be this dumb. I don't think he ever envisioned winning the nomination.

I believe in my heart that what your county chairman said was absolutely correct.

 

[Perotista]

I believe in my heart that what your county chairman said was absolutely correct.

I laughed at him then, but now I am not so sure.