Larry Sabato: Hillary Solid Victory

[cpwill]

Larry Sabato from the University of Virginia Center for Politics stopped by The Kelly File on Fox News Thursday night with his newest prediction for the national electoral college, and it ain’t pretty.

Well, not for Donald Trump, anyways. The Republican nominee for President of the United States can expect to find himself down — according to Sabato — 347 electoral votes to 191.

Look at all the Winning!

Gosh, I'm getting so sick of all this winning. Please Mr Trump, can you stop winning so much?


Winning!


Or, you know, losing.



But don't worry - Sabato knows how Trump can start to make up lost ground:

Sabato told Megyn Kelly that Trump’s best bet to win the White House would be for him to firmly remain focused on two issues: the economy — “which he should be talking about morning, noon, and night” — and terrorism. “Those are the two things that can elect him.”

All he has to do is stop being Donald Trump, and become someone with more impulse control than a toddler, who is able to stay laser-like on message, instead.


Way to go, GOP. Way to go.

 

[WorldWatcher]

>


And he still projects the Senate as 47/47 with 6 tossups.


Meaning Dem's only need to pick up 3 if Hillary wins, Kaine being the VP puts Dem's in as the majority, or 4 if Trump wins with Pence as VP.


I don't like Hillary or Trump so the most I'm hoping for is a party split between the President and the Senate as a balance when it comes to the 2-3 SCOTUS seats that will likely be filled in the next Presidential term. (Scalia's currently vacant seat, Ginsburg is 86 and Kennedy turns 80 this year). If Hillary wins and appoints more liberal Justices into a Dem Senate, we're screwed. If Trump wins and nominates multiple ultra conservative Justices, we're screwed. The best outcome is a split between the President and Senate resulting in moderate Justices that rule on the law instead of personal (wide left or wide right) views.



>>>>

 

[Ikari]

Look at all the Winning!

Gosh, I'm getting so sick of all this winning. Please Mr Trump, can you stop winning so much?


Winning!


Or, you know, losing.



But don't worry - Sabato knows how Trump can start to make up lost ground:



All he has to do is stop being Donald Trump, and become someone with more impulse control than a toddler, who is able to stay laser-like on message, instead.


Way to go, GOP. Way to go.

I think Trump is going to get crushed, the idiot cannot keep his mouth shut. He cannot stay on target, he cannot help but to throw petty insults around like Pez. He could make up ground, as pointed out in the article, if he behaved like a Presidential candidate instead of a petulant child. But I don't see him doing that at all. Maybe...but at this point, it doesn't seem likely.

So Trump is likely to lose, ergo might as well vote for Johnson.

 

[Ikari]

>


And he still projects the Senate as 47/47 with 6 tossups.


Meaning Dem's only need to pick up 3 if Hillary wins, Kaine being the VP puts Dem's in as the majority, or 4 if Trump wins with Pence as VP.


I don't like Hillary or Trump so the most I'm hoping for is a party split between the President and the Senate as a balance when it comes to the 2-3 SCOTUS seats that will likely be filled in the next Presidential term. (Scalia's currently vacant seat, Ginsburg is 86 and Kennedy turns 80 this year). If Hillary wins and appoints more liberal Justices into a Dem Senate, we're screwed. If Trump wins and nominates multiple ultra conservative Justices, we're screwed. The best outcome is a split between the President and Senate resulting in moderate Justices that rule on the law instead of personal (wide left or wide right) views.



>>>>

The best outcome would be Gary Johnson.

But barring that, Hillary will win the Presidency, and yes we're going to need to split it so that the GOP can control Congress. Can't give everything to a Clinton, we'd be fudged so fast.

 

[Crosscheck]

If the Republicans had put Jeb Bush up I think he would have beaten Clinton.
Actually thought Jeb Bush was the most sensible candidate with a good track record.


For some time people have been saying a vote for a third party is a wasted vote. But it is not longer a three party race. Trump is out.
So now if it is Clinton vs Johnson then you do ask yourself who is the lesser evil.

This is the strangest election.

I do believe Johnson can take this.

 

[Anagram]

Yeah, it's not looking good for him. There was a poll today showing Clinton with a four point lead in Georgia. Now she probably won't actually win Georgia because she's still in the midst of her convention bounce and things will likely converge somewhat. But not even on her best day should Hillary Clinton be leading by four in Georgia.

 

[roughdraft274]

If the Republicans had put Jeb Bush up I think he would have beaten Clinton.
Actually thought Jeb Bush was the most sensible candidate with a good track record.


For some time people have been saying a vote for a third party is a wasted vote. But it is not longer a three party race. Trump is out.
So now if it is Clinton vs Johnson then you do ask yourself who is the lesser evil.

This is the strangest election.

I do believe Johnson can take this.

I don't like Jeb just cause I don't like political dynasties. One of the reasons I was really hoping Hillary wouldn't run this year and why I didn't like her in 2008.

But I'm a democrat and I could be talked in to voting for Kasich, Rubio, Rand Paul and maybe a few others over Hillary Clinton if they had beat Trump.

 

[cpwill]

I don't like Jeb just cause I don't like political dynasties. One of the reasons I was really hoping Hillary wouldn't run this year and why I didn't like her in 2008.

But I'm a democrat and I could be talked in to voting for Kasich, Rubio, Rand Paul and maybe a few others over Hillary Clinton if they had beat Trump.

A decent, competent, well-informed and well-spoken GOP would have flipped the current numbers against Hillary.

Excuse me, I have a bottle of bourbon calling my name.

 

[Unitedwestand13]

If the Republicans had put Jeb Bush up I think he would have beaten Clinton.
Actually thought Jeb Bush was the most sensible candidate with a good track record.


For some time people have been saying a vote for a third party is a wasted vote. But it is not longer a three party race. Trump is out.
So now if it is Clinton vs Johnson then you do ask yourself who is the lesser evil.

This is the strangest election.

I do believe Johnson can take this.

Duvergers law is still applicable in this election. Johnston can not win unless he gets all the republicans to vote for him.

 

[Unitedwestand13]

The best outcome would be Gary Johnson.

But barring that, Hillary will win the Presidency, and yes we're going to need to split it so that the GOP can control Congress. Can't give everything to a Clinton, we'd be fudged so fast.

The GOP have already shown how they govern if they control of congress.

In my opinion, democrats need to win the senate and the house. Then we will see a congress actually passing legislation to deal with important issues such as the environment, the economy, the Zika virus, judicial appointments.

 

[beefheart]

Look at all the Winning!

Gosh, I'm getting so sick of all this winning. Please Mr Trump, can you stop winning so much?


Winning!


Or, you know, losing.



But don't worry - Sabato knows how Trump can start to make up lost ground:



All he has to do is stop being Donald Trump, and become someone with more impulse control than a toddler, who is able to stay laser-like on message, instead.


Way to go, GOP. Way to go.

Everyone told the GOP they were going down a bad road, they created this monster, too bad.

 

[Ikari]

The GOP have already shown how they govern if they control of congress.

In my opinion, democrats need to win the senate and the house. Then we will see a congress actually passing legislation to deal with important issues such as the environment, the economy, the Zika virus, judicial appointments.

All the reasons you just mentioned are reasons why we cannot give control of both Congress and the WH to one party.

 

[Unitedwestand13]

All the reasons you just mentioned are reasons why we cannot give control of both Congress and the WH to one party.

The republican controlled congress is on recess while the Zika virus is running amuk in Florida.

I hate this inactive senate and house, what are we paying them for if they refuse to do their jobs!

 

[Ikari]

The republican controlled congress is on recess while the Zika virus is running amuk in Florida.

I hate this inactive senate and house, what are we paying them for if they refuse to do their jobs!

I think recess is scheduled, so the dems are on recess too.

They all had time to try to do something previous, but Dem and Rep alike couldn't figure it out. And we have to evaluate how big of a threat it is and how to handle it. Perhaps not best for a bunch of politicians who never read the bills they are passing.

 

[tres borrachos]

I don't like Jeb just cause I don't like political dynasties. One of the reasons I was really hoping Hillary wouldn't run this year and why I didn't like her in 2008.

But I'm a democrat and I could be talked in to voting for Kasich, Rubio, Rand Paul and maybe a few others over Hillary Clinton if they had beat Trump.

You have no idea how much I hear that. And how it makes me want to cry.

I voted for Rubio and my husband voted for Kasich. We tried.

 

[Abbazorkzog]

Look at all the Winning!

Gosh, I'm getting so sick of all this winning. Please Mr Trump, can you stop winning so much?


Winning!


Or, you know, losing.



But don't worry - Sabato knows how Trump can start to make up lost ground:



All he has to do is stop being Donald Trump, and become someone with more impulse control than a toddler, who is able to stay laser-like on message, instead.


Way to go, GOP. Way to go.

We're boned.

 

[Perotista]

You have no idea how much I hear that. And how it makes me want to cry.

I voted for Rubio and my husband voted for Kasich. We tried.

All the polls taken in the primaries in head to head match ups showed Kasich beating Clinton, Rubio too. There was one candidate however who always lost in head to head match up with Clinton, Trump. Even Cruz was running even with Clinton, Carson before that was also beating Clinton.

But 40% of Republicans had to make a statement against the Republican elected officials, the party leaders and the so called establishment. By making that statement they handed the White House on a silver platter to Hillary Clinton. They deserve a President Clinton, that is getting exactly what they asked for in nominating Trump. But the rest of the nation doesn't.

 

[cpwill]

We're boned.

Love the Red v Blue.

Sent from my XT1526 using Tapatalk

 

[Visbek]

Look at all the Winning!

Gosh, I'm getting so sick of all this winning. Please Mr Trump, can you stop winning so much?

Trump's team seems to think he's winning.

Trump spokesman: These 'have been very good days'

Good luck with that whole pivot thing.... lol

 

[_Sal]

it's gotta be Johnson for you guys

please make it be Johnson....please

I am beggin' ya...please

 

[tres borrachos]

All the polls taken in the primaries in head to head match ups showed Kasich beating Clinton, Rubio too. There was one candidate however who always lost in head to head match up with Clinton, Trump. Even Cruz was running even with Clinton, Carson before that was also beating Clinton.

But 40% of Republicans had to make a statement against the Republican elected officials, the party leaders and the so called establishment. By making that statement they handed the White House on a silver platter to Hillary Clinton. They deserve a President Clinton, that is getting exactly what they asked for in nominating Trump. But the rest of the nation doesn't.

I remember those primary polls. They were even discussed on left leaning stations like MSNBC and run, over and over, in places like the NY Times. Yup, they proudly give the middle finger to the "Establishment" and the RNC and Boehner and Ryan and McConnell and everyone else they decided slighted them somehow. The same people who complained that Mitt Romney was a RINO nominated a lifelong, Liberal Democrat masquerading as a Republican. A man who as recently as 2008 was telling everyone what a great woman Hillary Clinton was and what a great President she would make and all the while donating to her and Chuck Schumer and Dick Durbin and every lousy Liberal he could. But they wanted to send a statement!

Hillary Clinton was probably one of the most beatable Democratic candidates I will ever see in my lifetime. Maybe Walter Mondale was more beatable, but he was going up against Reagan at the height of his approval.

This election would have been won by Kasich, Rubio, Walker, Perry, Pataki, Carson, we could go on. But it was made clear in every poll for months that the one person who was guaranteed to lose to her was Trump.

Hillary is laying in her bed at night, laughing her ass off about this. And I don't blame her.

 

[cpwill]

Trump's team seems to think he's winning.

Trump spokesman: These 'have been very good days'

Good luck with that whole pivot thing.... lol

He's had a few hilarious asides the last couple of days to the effect that he didn't understand how he could be losing, when his crowds are so big.
.:doh:

Sent from my XT1526 using Tapatalk

 

[tres borrachos]

Trump's team seems to think he's winning.

Trump spokesman: These 'have been very good days'

Good luck with that whole pivot thing.... lol

we start talking about stopping illegal immigration, start talking about making the country great again, that’s when that number will go up



Just shoot me now. Please.

 

[PerfectStorm]

Remember those BREXIT polls in late June?

 

[tres borrachos]

He's had a few hilarious asides the last couple of days to the effect that he didn't understand how he could be losing, when his crowds are so big.
.:doh:

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He's coming to New Hampshire tomorrow night. The NH Republicans invited me. I could even get front row seats if I volunteer to work the crowd.

I told them to go eff themselves.