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Kyev seems about to be captured

Who said it was supposed to be defeated by now? It's just TV talking heads. Ukraine is a vast country with millions of people.
You have to be oblivious not to have caught the Russian change in tactics.

Clearly Putin thought he was simply going to walk over the Ukrainians and topple the government in a matter or days. How do I know? Because he changed tactics from one of fighting Ukrainian military and territorial guard forces to indiscriminately bombing and shelling Ukraine cities and civilians into the stone ages and agreeing to humanitarian corridors and then simply bombing the shit out of them too.
 
I wouldn't call three miles closer in a day to within nine miles glacial.
Considering they have so far been largely engaging Ukraine forces in the field, that is glacial.

As I said, the estimates were 1-2 weeks to surround, and that my opinion is that it might not take nearly that long to go the last 9 miles.
Once they are in the city proper, yes, those last nine miles are going to be literal hell. I've been going around threads and few people seem to understand how ****ing difficult modern urban combat is. Taking a city like Kyiv is going to be incredibly costly to Russia. It will not be quick. It will not be easy. And they will lose thousands, maybe tens of thousands of troops.
Beginning in 1994, the Marine Corps began serious efforts to examine the problems of urban combat in a modern, media-dominated environment. The long-term study began with war games. In 1998, Commandant Gen. Charles Krulak directed the Marine Corps Warfighting Lab to conduct a series of major urban experiments, dubbed Urban Warrior. The initial results were not encouraging. In one experiment in Oakland, California, the blue (American) force took 75% casualties. (Source)
Contrary to the Betz and Stanford-Tuck’s thesis, an urban environment will never be neutral while civilians are present. Certain terms, like “urban environment” and even “city,” have their own complicated and often controversial definitions. The article in question is right to highlight that most militaries recognize that urban environments are defined by the presence of three components: a complex, man-made, physical terrain; a population of significant size and density; and a supporting infrastructure. (Source)
The initial assault resulted in considerable Russian casualties and demoralization in the Russian forces. It took another two months of heavy fighting, and a change in tactics, before the Russian Army was able to capture Grozny. The battle caused enormous destruction and casualties amongst the civilian population and saw the heaviest bombing campaign in Europe since the end of World War II. (Source)
 
Considering they have so far been largely engaging Ukraine forces in the field, that is glacial.

That 12 to 9 mile progress in a day wasn't in the field, it was Kyev suburbs IIUC.
Once they are in the city proper, yes, those last nine miles are going to be literal hell. I've been going around threads and few people seem to understand how ****ing difficult modern urban combat is. Taking a city like Kyiv is going to be incredibly costly to Russia. It will not be quick. It will not be easy. And they will lose thousands, maybe tens of thousands of troops.

We'll see. I'd hope it's slow going and something prevents Putin getting it done, but I don't think it's lookin good. The longer term is looking better that Russia can't hold Ukraine.
 
Who said it was supposed to be defeated by now? It's just TV talking heads. Ukraine is a vast country with millions of people.

Putin's plan was 15 days.
 
What is your concern? I mean, you didn't want anyone to defend Ukraine because that might provoke Putin and now you're concerned about who will speak on Ukraine's behalf? That, of course, will be Putin so he'll have been appeased and no longer a nuclear threat. Then, after an appropriate mourning period, we can all recognize Ukraine as Soviet Russian territory and fire up trade deals again. Maybe, once Ukraine has fallen, Russia will even come back to the Iran table and Biden can make sure they they get their nukes too!

Then can we let Russia back in the G8 like Trump suggested?
 
That 12 to 9 mile progress in a day wasn't in the field, it was Kyev suburbs IIUC.


We'll see. I'd hope it's slow going and something prevents Putin getting it done, but I don't think it's lookin good. The longer term is looking better that Russia can't hold Ukraine.
He has no hope of holding Ukraine which is another reason why he has turned to destroying it.
 
Once they are in the city proper, yes, those last nine miles are going to be literal hell. I've been going around threads and few people seem to understand how ****ing difficult modern urban combat is. Taking a city like Kyiv is going to be incredibly costly to Russia. It will not be quick. It will not be easy. And they will lose thousands, maybe tens of thousands of troops.

With the amount of anti-tank weapons delivered and to be delivered to Ukrainian forces, Kyiv will be a bloodbath for Russian troops.
 
Zelensky is trapped there. That 40 mile convoy is now surrounding the city (not finished but expected to within days). Russian forces are just 10 miles from Kyev's center where Zelensky is, and it seems Ukranians don't have enough to stop them.

I'm wondering if these "Z" markings on Russia forces - the Russian alphabet doesn't have "Z" - might be related to Zelensky's name in English. I'm concerned about Russia capturing Kyev and Zelensky being in much danger soon. They haven't really set up something like who would be in charge next talking to the world from outside Ukraine or something. Will the world demand more direct war on Putin if that happens, risking nuclear war?

The “Z” marking are friend/foe markings.
 
With the amount of anti-tank weapons delivered and to be delivered to Ukrainian forces, Kyiv will be a bloodbath for Russian troops.
They'd have a pretty big problem if they led with tanks. That's not what I'd expect.
 
With the amount of anti-tank weapons delivered and to be delivered to Ukrainian forces, Kyiv will be a bloodbath for Russian troops.
Yep. Ukraine has the second largest army in Europe (second to Russia), and virtually all of Europe, the US, and a few countries from the rest of the world have just been emptying their armories into Ukraine.

The other side of that coin though is the Russian army is just far worse than any analyst assumed they would be before this conflict started.
American infantry troops are professionals. It takes about two years to make an infantryman truly competent, and another three months of intensive training to hone urban warfare skills.

The average Russian conscript serves only a year. It is routine in the Russian army for officers to do things that American noncommissioned officers do on a daily basis; the concept of the Strategic Corporal is not doable in Putin's army.

This will not end happily for Russia.

Now that we have seen both the unexpected effectiveness of Ukrainian forces and the quite frankly shocking incompetence of Russia's military...honestly I see this turning into a long protracted stalemate.
 
Let's remember something. We can expect US government propaganda. We forget that because the Russian propaganda is far, far worse, but I can't think of a war the US had a concern about that didn't have big lies/propaganda. Though it seems pretty limited for Ukraine, because the truth doesn't need to be distorted much. But we might be hearing things like overly optimistic estimates for blocking Russians.
If anything, estimates have consistently underestimated Ukraine's ability to block the Russian advance.
 
They'd have a pretty big problem if they led with tanks. That's not what I'd expect.
Russia has just totally abandoned doctrine as far as I can tell. Air attacks without a supporting ground force, group forces without air support, tanks without infantry, infantry without tanks, supply lines without air defenses, desperately dropping paratroopers way ahead of where they can be supported...

Tactics wise this has just been a shit show so far.
 
He has no hope of holding Ukraine which is another reason why he has turned to destroying it.
Perhaps a topic for another thread- but then again we have enough on Ukraine.

But to your point, I keep wondering what Putin really believes the end game to be here? I don't see it ever ending well (for him). Even if he/they take all of Ukraine, the world is not simply going to accept that and there will be punishing sanctions from every angle. I don't think the Ukrainian people are going to accept it so Putin will have another Afghanistan on his hands. And he may anger enough of his own people that they get him out of office one way or the other.
Thoughts?
 
Yep. Ukraine has the second largest army in Europe (second to Russia), and virtually all of Europe, the US, and a few countries from the rest of the world have just been emptying their armories into Ukraine.

The other side of that coin though is the Russian army is just far worse than any analyst assumed they would be before this conflict started.


Now that we have seen both the unexpected effectiveness of Ukrainian forces and the quite frankly shocking incompetence of Russia's military...honestly I see this turning into a long protracted stalemate.
The Russian military seems to have gone decidedly backwards.

Even in its Cold War heyday, it was wildly overestimated. That started to change when we started to get intelligence from defectors that every driver of the Soviet T-64 (main battle tank for Russia in the 60's) was given a hammer as standard issue, just to get the damned thing in and out of gear and that there was a serious hunt on nationwide for left handed gun loaders as your typical right handed loader could not get out the way fast enough. They were getting hammered into the back of the turret. On any given day not more than a third of a typical Soviet tank battalion was operational even with the hammers. Then came the news that their ICBM's could not hit a barn door with a base fiddle.
 
If anything, estimates have consistently underestimated Ukraine's ability to block the Russian advance.
While Ukraine's forces have performed better than expected, I think the early estimations (even from people such as Gen Milley) that Ukraine would fall in 72h was that nobody could have possibly predicted how much the Russian forces would fall on their faces.

My personal guess is that Putin has behind the scenes prioritized putting people who are loyal to him over people who are competent. I think the on the ground Russian forces are getting top down orders to accomplish missions they simple cannot do with the resources or time frame they have been given. I don't think the higher ups want to hear about setbacks or that something can't be done. I think Putin genuinely believed they would roll Ukraine and may have even shot down planning for a longer conflict. Russia has been extremely slow to adjust their tactics, even in the face of massive losses:
What did we get wrong about Russian air superiority? Prior to the invasion, we assessed that Russia would establish air superiority within seventy-two hours of conflict. This has clearly not materialized. Here is what we got wrong:
1 - Failure of initial strikes. Russian air and missile strikes at the start of the conflict failed to inflict serious damage on Ukrainian air defenses, and the Russians have struggled with that error for two weeks now.
2 - Failure to change tactics in the face of huge losses. Despite losing large numbers of planes and helicopters, Russia did not change tactics to make the hunting and killing of SAMs, and the destruction of aircraft, on the ground a priority until at least ten days into the conflict. As a result, Ukrainian SAMs continue to engage Russian combat fighters, while Ukrainian fighter aircraft continue to contest control of the skies.
3 - Poor “force packaging.” Air campaigns are most effective when they include the massing of combat power and are augmented by critical combat enabling capabilities, which is known as “force packaging.” Generally, an air campaign will include aircraft focused on air superiority, SEAD, strategic attack (on critical governmental and military targets), and ground attack (on adversary military forces, reinforcements, and resupply).
 
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Russia has just totally abandoned doctrine as far as I can tell. Air attacks without a supporting ground force, group forces without air support, tanks without infantry, infantry without tanks, supply lines without air defenses, desperately dropping paratroopers way ahead of where they can be supported...

But about the issue of anti-tank weapons, Russia has been doing best with remote bombing, not tanks, and can be expected to do more of that.
 
I wouldn't call three miles closer in a day to within nine miles glacial.



I'd say reports they're using airports to bring things in suggests they might be doing better. That the ongoing shelling and advancing suggests it's not preventing war.



As I said, the estimates were 1-2 weeks to surround, and that my opinion is that it might not take nearly that long to go the last 9 miles.



No, "a marking" is that. WHY the marking "Z" which isn't even in their alphabet is another topic.
First off, the advance you're talking about is to the East, whereas the convoy is in the west. That is because the terrain to the east is flat and the Ukrainian army does not have enough forces to form a defense in the Eastern flank so they're relying on stopping the Russian formations in Kyiv itself which is why the Russians have made such progress. Now that they've reached the outskirts, resistance will significantly strengthen.

As to your second point, source? Supplying an entire army by air is not efficient and costly, and its unclear whether Russia have enough air capabilities to do so in the first place. Ongoing advances and shelling does not indicate there's no logistic problems. I have only seen probing attacks so far on Kyiv.

I'm more inclined to believe experts on how long it takes tbh. There are always plenty of factors into play, and it is yet to be seen whether Ukrainian counterattacks can derail this effort.
 
While Ukraine's forces have performed better than expected, I think the early estimations (even from people such as Gen Milley) that Ukraine would fall in 72h was that nobody could have possibly predicted how much the Russian forces would fall on their faces.

My personal guess is that Putin has behind the scenes prioritized putting people who are loyal to him over people who are competent. I think the on the ground Russian forces are getting top down orders to accomplish missions they simple cannot do with the resources or time frame they have been given. I don't think the higher ups want to hear about setbacks or that something can't be done. I think Putin genuinely believed they would roll Ukraine and may have even shot down planning for a longer conflict. Russia has been extremely slow to adjust their tactics, even in the face of massive losses:




I agree with you. Putin has made the often fatal mistake of surrounding himself with sycophants and yes-men.

 
But to your point, I keep wondering what Putin really believes the end game to be here?

Right now his plan seems to be to go 'full China'; to prevent Ukraine from being a prosperous, pro-west nation on his border and threatening to take back Crimea, while he goes 'full totalitarian' in Russia, making Russia more independent from the world and more immune to sanctions, and trying to build an anti-democracy alliance with China.
 
Then can we let Russia back in the G8 like Trump suggested?
Well, they hadn't tried to take over Ukraine in a few years before than happened and everyone had pretty much accepted their takeover of Crimea.

Actually, that's a little unfair of me. Everybody was happy with the takeover of Crimea except Vladimir who figured he wanted more.
 
While Ukraine's forces have performed better than expected, I think the early estimations (even from people such as Gen Milley) that Ukraine would fall in 72h was that nobody could have possibly predicted how much the Russian forces would fall on their faces.

My personal guess is that Putin has behind the scenes prioritized putting people who are loyal to him over people who are competent. I think the on the ground Russian forces are getting top down orders to accomplish missions they simple cannot do with the resources or time frame they have been given. I don't think the higher ups want to hear about setbacks or that something can't be done. I think Putin genuinely believed they would roll Ukraine and may have even shot down planning for a longer conflict. Russia has been extremely slow to adjust their tactics, even in the face of massive losses:




I think the 72 hour time frame was bs in the first place. Ukraine is vast, and their army is decent and equipped with western weapons. Kyiv would not have been taken that quickly, its simply too large and there were simply too many units stationed in the vicinity. Milley is braindead.

I do think the Russian High Command acknowledged the possibility of such a situation, yet they hoped it would never pass. It would also be unfeasible to suddenly change their doctrine, something that they've been using since the USSR. The Russian doctrine is also "casualty-averse", so none of this is that big of a surprise.
 
Putin turned generations of Ukrainians into freedom fighters for a decade.
 
I think the 72 hour time frame was bs in the first place.
I agree. The only way I could possibly have seen that happening is they expected to Blitz Kyiv, capturing the Ukrainian government, and have them surrender ending organized military resistance.

I do think the Russian High Command acknowledged the possibility of such a situation, yet they hoped it would never pass. It would also be unfeasible to suddenly change their doctrine, something that they've been using since the USSR. The Russian doctrine is also "casualty-averse", so none of this is that big of a surprise.
I agree with this too. The point I was making was only that I believe the Russian military structure has a very "top down" decision making process; or at least more so than the American military is. For example, our logistics are bottom up. Unit commanders are responsible for requesting the resources they need, then those resources are sent to them. Russia's logistics are top down. High command decides how many resources will be needed for an operation then distributes those down.
 
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