Kremlin Deploys New Troops to Ukraine as Both Sides Gird for a War of Attrition (1 Viewer)

[Rogue Valley]

Kremlin Deploys New Troops to Ukraine as Both Sides Gird for a War of Attrition

4.30.22
Russia is calling in troops based in its far east to join the battle in Ukraine, the Ukrainian military high command said on Saturday, as Moscow seeks to reinforce its war-fighting force amid heavy losses and signs that its drive to seize eastern Ukraine has stalled. Adding to the sense that both sides appeared to be girding for a war of attrition, Ukrainians on Saturday lined up at gas stations across the country as the government struggled to deal with a fuel shortage caused by Russian attacks on oil infrastructure. “Queues and rising prices at gas stations are seen in many regions of our country,” President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said Friday in his nightly address. “The occupiers are deliberately destroying the infrastructure for the production, supply and storage of fuel.” He said a Russian blockade of Ukrainian seaports meant that replacement stocks could not come in by tanker. The war has also paralyzed grain harvests in Ukraine, known as Europe’s breadbasket, disrupting global food supplies and worsening a food crisis in East Africa.

As Western allies have poured more heavy weapons into Ukraine, Slovakia and Poland, both NATO countries, reached an agreement that could presage the transfer of MIG-29 warplanes to Ukraine. Slovakia said that Polish F-16 jets would patrol its skies, freeing up a Slovak fleet of the Soviet-made MIGs. After a meeting between the two countries’ defense ministers on Friday, Poland said its air force would begin patrols over Slovakia as part of their joint efforts to help Ukraine. Slovakia did not say explicitly that it would send its MIGs to Ukraine, but it has raised the possibility of doing so — provided that it can find an alternative way to protect its airspace, which the agreement with Poland would seem to achieve. The Kremlin’s deployment of troops from eastern Russia to the battle front in Ukraine suggested that Moscow could be trying to regain momentum in what the Pentagon has described as a “plodding” offensive in eastern Ukraine. The Ukrainian military said that the additional Russian forces were being sent first to a Russian city near the Ukrainian border and then to the northeastern Ukrainian city of Izium, where the Russians have met fierce resistance. It did not say how many troops were being deployed.

The skinny is that Putin will formally declare war on Ukraine on May 9 and order a full military mobilization in Russia.

US satellites are watching Russian military units in far eastern Siberia move westward towards Donbas.

 

[Rexedgar]

There is also reporting that Russia will lower the age for military service. It seems there are more parallels to the Third Reich, what with Putin’s medical issues and a Young Army.

Young Army Movement Winning the Hearts and Minds of Russian Youth

A Russian expert details one program initiated by Russian President Vladimir Putin to increase patriotism among Russian youth, and make service in the Russian military more attractive and respected.

www.armyupress.army.mil

 

[Luckyone]

Kremlin Deploys New Troops to Ukraine as Both Sides Gird for a War of Attrition

The skinny is that Putin will formally declare war on Ukraine on May 9 and order a full military mobilization in Russia.

US satellites are watching Russian military units in far eastern Siberia move westward towards Donbas.

Russian general, 200 soldiers said killed in Ukrainian military strike​

Reports say Kyiv attacked the position in Russian-controlled east shortly after it was visited by Russian military chief Gerasimov​

 

[Gladiator]

"Although the Russian constitution claims that there is no official state ideology, as the Kremlin leadership has turned from democratic principles to a more autocratic model over the past several years, the ideological void has been filled with a potent mixture of militant patriotism, conservative Orthodoxy, and Soviet nostalgia. While this unofficial new ideology has been promulgated among all sectors of Russian society, the Kremlin leadership has focused its greatest emphasis upon Russian youth."

Young Army Movement Winning the Hearts and Minds of Russian Youth

A Russian expert details one program initiated by Russian President Vladimir Putin to increase patriotism among Russian youth, and make service in the Russian military more attractive and respected.

www.armyupress.army.mil

Apparently, the Russian constitution is not strictly adhered to.

The United States has not consulted adequately with Russia on military/political matters, since 1991, to give Russia a feeling of adequate respect.


//

 

[Gladiator]

"Russian President Vladimir Putin may be forced to give up control of the war in Ukraine for days as he is set for cancer surgery, and will reportedly nominate hardline former FSB chief Nikolai Patrushev to take temporary control of the invasion while he is under the knife, a Kremlin insider has claimed.

Patrushev, the 70-year-old incumbent Secretary of Russia's Security Council, is seen as a key architect of the war strategy so far, and the man who convinced Putin that Kiev is awash with neo-Nazis, said a Daily Mail report.

"The extraordinary claims appeared on popular Telegram channel General SVR, which says its source is a well-placed figure in the Kremlin, the report added."

"General SVR reported that Putin has abdominal cancer and Parkinson's 18 months ago."

Putin to go for surgery, hand over temporary power to ex-KGB chief: Report

The extraordinary claims appeared on popular Telegram channel General SVR, which says its source is a well-placed figure in the Kremlin, the report added

www.business-standard.com

//

 

[Hamish Howl]

I guess Putin feels that there aren't enough dead Russians.

Or enough humiliation of Russia, getting it's ass kicked by a bush league team.

 

[Hamish Howl]

"Russian President Vladimir Putin may be forced to give up control of the war in Ukraine for days as he is set for cancer surgery, and will reportedly nominate hardline former FSB chief Nikolai Patrushev to take temporary control of the invasion while he is under the knife, a Kremlin insider has claimed.

Patrushev, the 70-year-old incumbent Secretary of Russia's Security Council, is seen as a key architect of the war strategy so far, and the man who convinced Putin that Kiev is awash with neo-Nazis, said a Daily Mail report.

"The extraordinary claims appeared on popular Telegram channel General SVR, which says its source is a well-placed figure in the Kremlin, the report added."

"General SVR reported that Putin has abdominal cancer and Parkinson's 18 months ago."

Putin to go for surgery, hand over temporary power to ex-KGB chief: Report

The extraordinary claims appeared on popular Telegram channel General SVR, which says its source is a well-placed figure in the Kremlin, the report added

www.business-standard.com

//

This actually explains a whole lot.

 

[Hamish Howl]

I wonder what his odds are of surviving the operation...all things considered?

 

[maxparrish]

Kremlin Deploys New Troops to Ukraine as Both Sides Gird for a War of Attrition

The skinny is that Putin will formally declare war on Ukraine on May 9 and order a full military mobilization in Russia.

US satellites are watching Russian military units in far eastern Siberia move westward towards Donbas.

Once again, Putin holds the initiative. Since the inception of the war many have been in anguish over the allied failure to see this as a war, a war that can only be won by escalating farther and faster than the Russians so as to break their army and send them in a forced retreat. Instead, our side "responds", attempting to keep the status quo.

Russia focuses on a new offensive; we scramble to send enough to halt it but not soon enough for a counter offensive. Russia fails, maintains its gains, and sends for more reinforcements. And it starts over again.

At this point, I am beginning to believe the war cannot be won by Ukraine. Too late I fear...and the Germans still temporize. Hopefully while these new forces are in transit, Ukraine can make substantial gains in Kharkiv region.

 

[joluoto]

I wonder what his odds are of surviving the operation...all things considered?

Patrushev could probably be even harder to deal with than Putin unfortunately. Everything I have heard about Patrushev is that he is a person who takes the things Putin pretends to believe in seriously.

 

[Rogue Valley]

At this point, I am beginning to believe the war cannot be won by Ukraine. Too late I fear...and the Germans still temporize. Hopefully while these new forces are in transit, Ukraine can make substantial gains in Kharkiv region.

I don't share your pessimism. Russia is making little headway in Donbas. Soldier morale is low and they are poorly trained and poorly led. Russian armaments are highly vulnerable to Western technology.

Ukraine is now consolidating with forces training in Poland and Germany to use Western heavy weapons. Slovakia has agreed to send Ukraine its MiG-29s.

The Ukraine High Command says that it is currently satisified to stem any Russian pushes until mid-May when it goes on the offensive to liberate occupied cities and towns.

 

[maxparrish]

I don't share your pessimism. Russia is making little headway in Donbas. Soldier morale is low and they are poorly trained and poorly led. Russian armaments are highly vulnerable to Western technology.

Ukraine is now consolidating with forces training in Poland and Germany to use Western heavy weapons. Slovakia has agreed to send Ukraine its MiG-29s.

The Ukraine High Command says that it is currently satisified to stem any Russian pushes until mid-May when it goes on the offensive to liberate occupied cities and towns.

Thank you. I needed a bit of cheering up. It's hard to read and see all the endless horror the Russians are inflicting on Ukraine without feeling dispirited.

Soon we should see if the infusion of artillery provides the firepower needed. In the meantime, the gains made by Ukraine in Kharkiv region is impressive and if it continues could threaten Russian supply lines to the south... let us hope it does.

 

[maxparrish]

Patrushev could probably be even harder to deal with than Putin unfortunately. Everything I have heard about Patrushev is that he is a person who takes the things Putin pretends to believe in seriously.

Interesting. Should Putin die according to the latest version of the Constitution it is the Prime Minister that becomes President, a rather introverted and inoffensive economist who does not seem to be an idealogue.

Would Patrushev try to pull a coup?

 

[maxparrish]

I wonder what his odds are of surviving the operation...all things considered?

Probably very good. Thyroid cancer is, usually, treatable and surgery itself is little more than removing the glands and surrounding lymph nodes. He has been under care for the condition for quite some time so it must not have been that life threatening.

Still one can hope the bastard dies...

 

[Hamish Howl]

Probably very good. Thyroid cancer is, usually, treatable and surgery itself is little more than removing the glands and surrounding lymph nodes. He has been under care for the condition for quite some time so it must not have been that life threatening.

Still one can hope the bastard dies...

Oh, sure.

But who is the anesthesiologist and who owns him/her?

If I was an oligarch and wanted to bounce Putin, that's exactly how I'd do it.

 

[Hamish Howl]

The thing about being an absolute ruler is that you can never relax. Ever.

 

[Juin]

Once again, Putin holds the initiative. Since the inception of the war many have been in anguish over the allied failure to see this as a war, a war that can only be won by escalating farther and faster than the Russians so as to break their army and send them in a forced retreat. Instead, our side "responds", attempting to keep the status quo.

Russia focuses on a new offensive; we scramble to send enough to halt it but not soon enough for a counter offensive. Russia fails, maintains its gains, and sends for more reinforcements. And it starts over again.

At this point, I am beginning to believe the war cannot be won by Ukraine. Too late I fear...and the Germans still temporize. Hopefully while these new forces are in transit, Ukraine can make substantial gains in Kharkiv region.

If you were to take a wild guess how long do you think this conflict lasts? I thought major battles would have been over by end of February and Russia would be dealing but with partisan wars at this point.

Where should Ukraine focus its efforts for the moment while it builds up its armies from western supplies?

Kharkiv offensives by Ukraine does not appear to me all that advisable. If I am not mistaken it is at the end of a very long logistic line- Lviv to Kharkiv has to be hundreds of miles. And Russia is blowing up train infrastructure and gas depots. Whatever gets to Kharkiv from all the way back in Lviv is maybe best used in reinforcing the urban defenses.

I will say the Ukrainian Donbass Army should get the bulk of what is at present scarce resources. It appears to be holding. The Russian Armies are barely moving. The Donbass Army keeps the Russians far away from the Dnieper River. And since clearly Russia is focussing on Donbass- It has said so itself, and all evidence suggests that to be the case- it makes sense for Ukraine to lock horns with the Russians where the Russian Army is.

Kherson offensives. Can wait.

 

[joluoto]

Interesting. Should Putin die according to the latest version of the Constitution it is the Prime Minister that becomes President, a rather introverted and inoffensive economist who does not seem to be an idealogue.

Would Patrushev try to pull a coup?

The Constitution doesn't mean anything. If Putin hands the war over to Patrushev while going to cancer treatment, it basically means Patrushev is in charge of everything. It's as good as Putin saying Patrushev is his successor.

 

[maxparrish]

The Constitution doesn't mean anything. If Putin hands the war over to Patrushev while going to cancer treatment, it basically means Patrushev is in charge of everything. It's as good as Putin saying Patrushev is his successor.

Well, it means a little something. But you are right, if Putin died then Patrushev would use his FSB to intimidate the duma to change the constitution again to that of an imperial system, he essentially being Ceasar's adoptee. And unfortunately, the man is crazier than Putin.

 

[maxparrish]

If you were to take a wild guess how long do you think this conflict lasts? I thought major battles would have been over by end of February and Russia would be dealing but with partisan wars at this point.

Where should Ukraine focus its efforts for the moment while it builds up its armies from western supplies?

Kharkiv offensives by Ukraine does not appear to me all that advisable. If I am not mistaken it is at the end of a very long logistic line- Lviv to Kharkiv has to be hundreds of miles. And Russia is blowing up train infrastructure and gas depots. Whatever gets to Kharkiv from all the way back in Lviv is maybe best used in reinforcing the urban defenses.

I will say the Ukrainian Donbass Army should get the bulk of what is at present scarce resources. It appears to be holding. The Russian Armies are barely moving. The Donbass Army keeps the Russians far away from the Dnieper River. And since clearly Russia is focussing on Donbass- It has said so itself, and all evidence suggests that to be the case- it makes sense for Ukraine to lock horns with the Russians where the Russian Army is.

Kherson offensives. Can wait.

Initially I predicted six weeks, thinking Ukraine could at least hold out as long as Poland in WW2. Clearly, we underappreciated the preperation of Ukraine for such a war, and way overestimated the skills of the Russian military.

Non the less, contrary to most folks' opinions at this moment Russia and Putin has won. They have taken most of the desired territory, and a little extra around Kharkov and a ceasefire declared as of today would leave them in another Minisk Accord, holding far more than what was not their prior grasp.

Moreover, a ceasefire would only be an interlude as long as Ukraine wish's to regain its lost territory. I cannot see Russia ever returning the Donbas areas occupied now, or the land connection to Crimea.

So there is no end as long as supplies and manpower hold out for both sides, unless Ukraine is provided the ability to launch a serious offensive.

And that may not be possible.

 

[maxparrish]

 

[EnigmaO01]

There is also reporting that Russia will lower the age for military service. It seems there are more parallels to the Third Reich, what with Putin’s medical issues and a Young Army.

Young Army Movement Winning the Hearts and Minds of Russian Youth

A Russian expert details one program initiated by Russian President Vladimir Putin to increase patriotism among Russian youth, and make service in the Russian military more attractive and respected.

www.armyupress.army.mil

What is the age being dropped to? I didn't see it in your link.

 

[Rexedgar]

What is the age being dropped to? I didn't see it in your link.

I have seen both 16 & 17 in reports that I cannot locate now.

 

[Rogue Valley]

Non the less, contrary to most folks' opinions at this moment Russia and Putin has won. They have taken most of the desired territory, and a little extra around Kharkov and a ceasefire declared as of today would leave them in another Minisk Accord, holding far more than what was not their prior grasp.

In for a penny in for a pound. Mariupol is already destroyed. None of the damage can be undone. I do not see the Ukrainians settling for losing more of their territory.

On the contrary, as long as weapons continue to flow, I see them staying at it and liberating all occupied territory including Crimea.

 

[maxparrish]

In for a penny in for a pound. Mariupol is already destroyed. None of the damage can be undone. I do not see the Ukrainians settling for losing more of their territory.

On the contrary, as long as weapons continue to flow, I see them staying at it and liberating all occupied territory including Crimea.

Excellent foresight: