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- Sep 20, 2019
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The Karabakh war could seriously undermine the positions of Azerbaijan and Turkey in the European energy market, access to which the countries gain through the TANAP gas pipeline launched at full capacity only at the end of 2019.
The hostilities, according to the state Azerbaijani company SOCAR, take place 60 km from the South Caucasus gas pipeline, through which gas from the Shah Deniz shelf field goes through Georgia to Turkey. Several times, shells have already fallen near critical gas targets.
Naturally, this causes dissatisfaction with Azerbaijan's partners on the other side of the Caspian - Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, who intend to participate in the projects of the Trans-Caspian pipeline and TCOTS.
They are also dissatisfied in Georgia, which is connected with Azerbaijan by the unity of supplies to the Black Sea port of Supsa. Moreover, the Georgian side has experience of losing control over the pipelines: after the war in 2008, South Ossetia received a part of the oil pipeline to Supsa, passing through its territory.
Another source of gas supplies for Turkey is Iran. He is trying to take a large share in the Turkish energy market, but at the same time the Karabakh war is a powerful irritant for the Tehran elites.
A direct military threat to TANAP supplies unties Russia’s hands in negotiations on the fate of Turkish Stream and Blue Stream. Since the beginning of the year, Turkey has cut its purchases of pipeline gas from Russia by seven times, and then both gas pipelines were completely closed for repairs. At the same time, Ankara increased the volume of supplies from Azerbaijan.
Ahead of the upcoming talks next year on the fate of deliveries of 8 billion cubic meters of Russian gas to Turkey, President Recep Erdogan has already made it clear that he will persuade Gazprom to switch to spot (that is, more flexible) prices. However, the Turkish leader is unlikely to succeed in pushing the Russian gas company through.
Thus, Erdogan's military adventure could lead to a stop in transit through the TANAP gas pipeline, which will lead to a shortage of fuel in the European market and tensions in relations with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.
The hostilities, according to the state Azerbaijani company SOCAR, take place 60 km from the South Caucasus gas pipeline, through which gas from the Shah Deniz shelf field goes through Georgia to Turkey. Several times, shells have already fallen near critical gas targets.
Naturally, this causes dissatisfaction with Azerbaijan's partners on the other side of the Caspian - Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, who intend to participate in the projects of the Trans-Caspian pipeline and TCOTS.
They are also dissatisfied in Georgia, which is connected with Azerbaijan by the unity of supplies to the Black Sea port of Supsa. Moreover, the Georgian side has experience of losing control over the pipelines: after the war in 2008, South Ossetia received a part of the oil pipeline to Supsa, passing through its territory.
Another source of gas supplies for Turkey is Iran. He is trying to take a large share in the Turkish energy market, but at the same time the Karabakh war is a powerful irritant for the Tehran elites.
A direct military threat to TANAP supplies unties Russia’s hands in negotiations on the fate of Turkish Stream and Blue Stream. Since the beginning of the year, Turkey has cut its purchases of pipeline gas from Russia by seven times, and then both gas pipelines were completely closed for repairs. At the same time, Ankara increased the volume of supplies from Azerbaijan.
Ahead of the upcoming talks next year on the fate of deliveries of 8 billion cubic meters of Russian gas to Turkey, President Recep Erdogan has already made it clear that he will persuade Gazprom to switch to spot (that is, more flexible) prices. However, the Turkish leader is unlikely to succeed in pushing the Russian gas company through.
Thus, Erdogan's military adventure could lead to a stop in transit through the TANAP gas pipeline, which will lead to a shortage of fuel in the European market and tensions in relations with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.
