Jobs that won't exist in 20 years

[Allan]

A number of years ago my nephew asked my opinion on what career choices he should look into. He's a natural leader with good math skills so the obvious suggestion I thought would be management or finance. But I'd read an article that suggested that accounting and finance jobs would be eliminated in the future, replaced by AI. An example is software for taxes. So I had a hard time making recommendations.

Here is an Inc list of jobs that probably won't exist in 20 years, and why:

1. Cashiers -> self-checkout machines
2. Newspaper delivery -> electronic reading devices
3. Travel agents -> travel websites
4. Taxi dispatchers -> mobile apps
5. Taxi drivers -> self-driving cars
6. Journalists -> artificial intelligence software
7. Social-media expert -> everyday individuals
8. Telemarketers -> robots
9. Assembly line workers -> robots
10. Referees -> video technology

I've also read that long-haul truck drivers, an occupation that employs about half a million Americans, will be displaced by self-driving rigs. Of course these jobs will be largely replaced by something else. Someone has to write the software and build the hardware for the new technologies.

Any thoughts on where this is going or what other jobs might disappear or be created?

 

[Fabiusbile]

It is difficult to judge, the labor market is always volatile and 10 years ago I heard other predictions.
One thing I can say for sure, the civil service and law enforcement are still free from the pressure of robots.
Having combat experience of serving in the army, having graduated from a departmental university with honors, having mastered several languages at a sufficient level, I have visited many places in the world. No matter what happens in different countries of the world, prisons are always needed everywhere, specialists are needed to organize them in accordance with international standards or to bypass them.
However, all this did not bring me a lot of money.
A small pension, a collection of medals and a pensioner's certificate with a ban on traveling to a number of countries.

 

[EdwinWillers]

Door-to-Door Salespeople -> more efficient mass marketing methods (and gun-toting homeowners )

Farmers & Ranchers -> Machines and Bill Gates

 

[TheParser]

Any thoughts on where this is going or what other jobs might disappear or be created?

The world will be a much less worse place when robots are really put to use.

It will be wonderful when human caregivers are replaced by robot caregivers.

Human caregivers are expensive. (They make little money, but their agencies do very well.)
Since they are human, they get tired.
Since they are human, some are bad and dangerous individuals.
Since they are human, they do not know all the answers to health matters.

With robot caregivers at home or at a hospital or nursing home, one can always have your personal caregiver at your beck and call.

 

[Helix]

They will replace every job that they can. They are trying to automate what I do, too.

 

[EdwinWillers]

Watchmakers / repairers -> Smartphones & Watches

 

[Allan]

The world will be a much less worse place when robots are really put to use.

It will be wonderful when human caregivers are replaced by robot caregivers.

Human caregivers are expensive. (They make little money, but their agencies do very well.)
Since they are human, they get tired.
Since they are human, some are bad and dangerous individuals.
Since they are human, they do not know all the answers to health matters.

With robot caregivers at home or at a hospital or nursing home, one can always have your personal caregiver at your beck and call.

Health care has seen enormous advances in technology that replaces some human functions and results in fewer errors. An example is AI diagnostic software that does a better job of finding lung cancer in CT scans. And it's not just medical functions but also hospital support roles. Machines that use UV light do a much better job of disinfecting a patient room or surgical suite than a housekeeper.

 

[EdwinWillers]

I think Realtors are on their way out too - to online services that charge far less.

I think they've done it to themselves, charging wholly unwarranted and exorbitant fees for practically no work whatsoever. At their typical rate of 6% of sale price, the same realtor would make $18,000 on a $200,000 home, $30,000 on a $500k home, and $60,000 on a million dollar home - for virtually the same amount of work. And that work amounts to (based on our experience anyway) about two to maybe 4 days worth of actual effort. They do have expenses like shared office space, the MLM services, and etc. but there's simply no way to rationally justify charging clients as much as they do for what little they do.

 

[Allan]

I think Realtors are on their way out too - to online services that charge far less.

I think they've done it to themselves, charging wholly unwarranted and exorbitant fees for practically no work whatsoever. At their typical rate of 6% of sale price, the same realtor would make $18,000 on a $200,000 home, $30,000 on a $500k home, and $60,000 on a million dollar home - for virtually the same amount of work. And that work amounts to (based on our experience anyway) about two to maybe 4 days worth of actual effort. They do have expenses like shared office space, the MLM services, and etc. but there's simply no way to rationally justify charging clients as much as they do for what little they do.

Very good points and I think you're right.

Here's what a realtor does, and the options that are available even now for homeowners to do-it-themselves.

Realtor takes the photos. Some do a good job, some do a lousy job. The realtor who sold my house last year took a photography course and his pictures were spectacular. Since photos are the primary marketing tool they're very important. But a homeowner might have the skill do do it, or at least spend a few bucks and hire a professional photographer.

Realtor lists the house. There are already do-it-yourself websites that list properties for home sellers. I believe that those listings are aggregated by sites such as Zillow and Yahoo.

Realtor shows the house. The homeowner can do that themselves and probably do a better job of enthusiastically selling the potential buyer on the features of the house, benefits of the neighbourhood and schools etc. Sure the seller is not available at all hours but if they work the potential buyer can view in the evening or on weekends.

Realtor does the paperwork for the offer. That can be done directly between the buyer and seller. The forms are standardized in most places.

Realtor does the paperwork for the close. Most of this is already done by a lawyer anyway.

 

[swing_voter]

Very good points and I think you're right.

Here's what a realtor does, and the options that are available even now for homeowners to do-it-themselves.

Realtor takes the photos. Some do a good job, some do a lousy job. The realtor who sold my house last year took a photography course and his pictures were spectacular. Since photos are the primary marketing tool they're very important. But a homeowner might have the skill do do it, or at least spend a few bucks and hire a professional photographer.

Realtor lists the house. There are already do-it-yourself websites that list properties for home sellers. I believe that those listings are aggregated by sites such as Zillow and Yahoo.

Realtor shows the house. The homeowner can do that themselves and probably do a better job of enthusiastically selling the potential buyer on the features of the house, benefits of the neighbourhood and schools etc. Sure the seller is not available at all hours but if they work the potential buyer can view in the evening or on weekends.

Realtor does the paperwork for the offer. That can be done directly between the buyer and seller. The forms are standardized in most places.

Realtor does the paperwork for the close. Most of this is already done by a lawyer anyway.

Realtors are sales people.

Sales are something a machine can't do very well.

A good realtor can sell for more money, earning their keep.


.

 

[Allan]

Realtors are sales people.

Sales are something a machine can't do very well.

A good realtor can sell for more money, earning their keep.


.

I think what you say is very true. But in industries as varied as retail, travel and car dealers very good salespeople are being displaced by customers who do their own shopping online. It's only a matter of time imo until Realtors are replaced, especially considering their very high fees. I'm not saying they're not worth it but if I can sell a 300K house and pay the photographer, listing website and lawyer a set fee I'm going to save quite a bit of money on the sale.

 

[BlueTex]

I think Realtors are on their way out too - to online services that charge far less.

I think they've done it to themselves, charging wholly unwarranted and exorbitant fees for practically no work whatsoever. At their typical rate of 6% of sale price, the same realtor would make $18,000 on a $200,000 home, $30,000 on a $500k home, and $60,000 on a million dollar home - for virtually the same amount of work. And that work amounts to (based on our experience anyway) about two to maybe 4 days worth of actual effort. They do have expenses like shared office space, the MLM services, and etc. but there's simply no way to rationally justify charging clients as much as they do for what little they do.

That 6% rarely goes to one realtor, it's split between the sellers realtor and the buyers realtor... A good sellers realtor, even in these times, earns their commission by making sure your home is priced for the market, keeps showings to only qualified buyers, etc. There is far more to selling a house than most people realize....

 

[Nomad4Ever]

Journalists -> artificial intelligence software

I disagree with this one.

Referees -> video technology

I still think ultimately there will be humans making the calls, plus it's such a small amount of jobs anyway.

Of course these jobs will be largely replaced by something else. Someone has to write the software and build the hardware for the new technologies.

To some degree, yes. I think what people have to understand is there will just be less people doing "productive" jobs. Very few people will need to be involved in the production of material value. I think most new jobs will be in entertainment/services/recreation.

 

[Allan]

I disagree with this one.

This is already happening.

I still think ultimately there will be humans making the calls, plus it's such a small amount of jobs anyway.

The total of the 10 categories listed in the OP is a huge number of jobs.

To some degree, yes. I think what people have to understand is there will just be less people doing "productive" jobs. Very few people will need to be involved in the production of material value. I think most new jobs will be in entertainment/services/recreation.

Disagree with you on this point. The newer jobs are likely going to be more high-tech, which generally pay better than the jobs being eliminated.

 

[Allan]

That 6% rarely goes to one realtor, it's split between the sellers realtor and the buyers realtor...

True, but the total is still substantial for the seller

A good sellers realtor, even in these times, earns their commission by making sure your home is priced for the market,

My realtor did that by showing me what houses were listed at in my neighbourhood. I could have done that in five minutes. Aggregating sites such as Zillow do that for you.

keeps showings to only qualified buyers, etc.

How does a realtor insure a potential buyer is qualified? I'm not saying I doubt this, just curious as to how they would do it.

 

[BlueTex]

True, but the total is still substantial for the seller

And sellers who use a realtor take away more at closing...

My realtor did that by showing me what houses were listed at in my neighbourhood. I could have done that in five minutes. Aggregating sites such as Zillow do that for you.

Zillow shows you what sellers are ASKING, not what they are actually selling for...

How does a realtor insure a potential buyer is qualified? I'm not saying I doubt this, just curious as to how they would do it.

Pre-qualification, asset verification, etc.

 

[Allan]

And sellers who use a realtor take away more at closing...

Zillow shows you what sellers are ASKING, not what they are actually selling for...

When you advertise a property on Zillow they show you selling prices in the area, which you can use to help determine listing price.

Pre-qualification, asset verification, etc.

How do they do asset verification?

 

[BlueTex]

When you advertise a property on Zillow they show you selling prices in the area, which you can use to help determine listing price.

They only show selling prices in states that make that information public. Texas, for instance, does not allow public disclosure of selling price. The selling price also does not include details that led to that selling price. For instance, that sale might include terms that allow the seller to continue living in the home for up to 90 days free.

How do they do asset verification?

Letters from banks is pretty typical..

 

[Nomad4Ever]

This is already happening.

That's just writing though. You are still researching stories, choosing what to write, and mostly likely editing as well. I can't see that process going away anytime soon.

The total of the 10 categories listed in the OP is a huge number of jobs.

The total, yes. I just meant referees.

Disagree with you on this point. The newer jobs are likely going to be more high-tech, which generally pay better than the jobs being eliminated.

The entire point of robots/AI/automation is that one person can replace the work of many. For example, one programmer and a few engineers replacing 100 truck drivers. Advances in farming replacing thousands of farmers didn't "create" new jobs, it just freed up resources so more people could do other stuff.

 

[Allan]

They only show selling prices in states that make that information public. Texas, for instance, does not allow public disclosure of selling price. The selling price also does not include details that led to that selling price. For instance, that sale might include terms that allow the seller to continue living in the home for up to 90 days free.

Thanks.

Letters from banks is pretty typical..

I've bought several houses and never had to provide any information regarding my qualifications as a buyer. Once an offer is made I had to provide the deposit but that was it.

 

[BlueTex]

Thanks.

I've bought several houses and never had to provide any information regarding my qualifications as a buyer. Once an offer is made I had to provide the deposit but that was it.

It really depends on the market the realtors involved... In our market, buyers agents who have supporting documentation are taken much more seriously than those who don't... When a seller accepts an offer, they are taking a risk by removing the home from the market while the transaction is processed... Buyers back out of contracts fairly regularly for all kinds of reasons (failure to appraise, inspection issues, etc.) and the seller really has no practical means of recourse other than a lawsuit that might take years to resolve. A pretty typical contingency right now in our area is the appraisal waiver (our market is super hot)... What this means is that the buyer is personally guaranteeing they will pay cash for the difference between the appraised valued and the selling price if the appraisal is less than the selling price. This is where a realtor can really be valuable for both the buyer and the seller..

 

[Allan]

It really depends on the market the realtors involved... In our market, buyers agents who have supporting documentation are taken much more seriously than those who don't... When a seller accepts an offer, they are taking a risk by removing the home from the market while the transaction is processed... Buyers back out of contracts fairly regularly for all kinds of reasons (failure to appraise, inspection issues, etc.) and the seller really has no practical means of recourse other than a lawsuit that might take years to resolve. A pretty typical contingency right now in our area is the appraisal waiver (our market is super hot)... What this means is that the buyer is personally guaranteeing they will pay cash for the difference between the appraised valued and the selling price if the appraisal is less than the selling price. This is where a realtor can really be valuable for both the buyer and the seller..

I see. We are in areas with different laws. Here is a buyer backs out for any reason they lose their deposit to the seller. In addition while an offer is in play buyers can continue to make offers on a home. A home is never removed from the market until the check is in the hands of the seller. That's the point where the agent lists the house as 'sold' and then removes the listing.

I've never heard of an appraisal continency but it's possible to write it into an offer here as a condition. I certainly wouldn't entertain that type of condition if I were selling a home.

 

[justabubba]

Allow me to summon our debate politics robotics expert
@calamity

 

[Allan]

Allow me to summon our debate politics robotics expert
@calamity

This whole place could be automated. C3P0 as Justabubba, Star Wars Battle Droids for all omniscient's socks, Westworld Gunslinger for TurtleDude, Robocop for Luce and HAL9000 for ASHES.

 

[Antiwar]

Robot-capitalism will probably be more alienating than labor-capitalism because most people will be even more 'useless eaters.'