Ahead of the G7 summit last month, on May 10, Japan’s foreign minister, Yoshimasa Hayashi, confirmed that NATO would very likely open a liaison office in the country, the first of its kind in Asia. "Since the aggression by Russia on Ukraine," Hayashi said, "the world has become more unstable." Regional security in the Indo-Pacific in the wake of the war, he added, means that "cooperation between us in East Asia and NATO is increasingly important." The G7 summit resulted in the world’s seven richest countries agreeing that they needed to "de-risk" their economic and trade relationship with China. Since January, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has rallied support from Western nations by pointing to China’s militarization of the East and South China Seas, Beijing’s threats against Taiwan and increased nuclear testing by North Korea. NATO's decision to establish a liaison office in Japan represents an extension of the Western alliance system into the Indo-Pacific region, something that has broader implications for global politics. In de-risking their relationships with China, the G7 emphasized that it did not seek to "harm China" or "thwart China’s economic progress and development." But China’s close relationship with Russia and China’s increasing aggression toward its neighbors has forced the G7, in its words, "to act in our national interests."
This action underlines the fact that East Asia is no longer an isolated theater but a major focal point of global strategic competition. It also signals that Japan, often seen as a quiet economic powerhouse, is emerging from its hibernation on regional, and even global, security matters. Japan has had to rethink its security outlook. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken the Japanese establishment. Japan has been especially strong in condemning the war, in part because it fears the message that Russian aggression sends to China. Japan’s increased defense spending might ensure the nation’s security but it also runs the risk of inflaming tensions with China. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said that Japan needed to be "extra-cautious on the issue of military security" because of its "history of aggression." "Ukraine may be the East Asia of tomorrow," Kashida said at a press conference in Washington, D.C., referring to the threat posed by China and North Korea. It’s why Japan has been widely reported to be doubling its defense spending over the next five years. Just a week ago, China and Russia conducted a joint air patrol over the Sea of Japan and the South China Sea, forcing both Japan and South Korea to scramble their own fighter jets. The Chinese and Russian joint patrols began taking place before the war in Ukraine, but now there is a growing number of joint military exercises between the U.S. and its allies in the region. Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine has reminded China’s neighbors in the Indo-Pacific that their national security might be dependent on forming alliances of their own, alliances with sufficient force to make China think twice before following Putin’s path.