I've never seen it said better

[LowDown]

Our drop from 8.1 to 7.3% unemployment is analogous to losing 20 pounds by cutting off your leg.

 

[Threegoofs]

Sure. Because a lower unemployment rate is bad. And lowering it that way is like just causing a worse problem.

Or something.

 

[Starbuck]

Sure. Because a lower unemployment rate is bad.

Some things are just too good to be true.

 

[Starbuck]

I hate to respond to a blog post, with another blog post, but I was told to read this report on Job Creation a few days ago. It's pretty interesting stuff and kind of blends right into the subject at hand:

Over the course of the last century, the number of workers employed. . . in industry, and in the farm sector has collapsed dramatically. At the same time, “professional, managerial, clerical, sales, and service workers” tripled, growing “from one-quarter to three-quarters of total employment.” In other words, productive jobs have, just as predicted, been largely automated away

Source Article- On the Phenomenon of Bullsh*t Jobs

Like I said, it's a pretty interesting take-down on what jobs have been created and what jobs have been lost.

So after we cut off that leg, you know to improve unemployment, perhaps we could add another Appendix or a new set of wisdom teeth.

 

[Neomalthusian]

Sure. Because a lower unemployment rate is bad.

No, the unemployment rate itself is a bad measure.

Over the past three months, the U.S. economy has averaged 148,000 new jobs per month. That’s actually a slower pace than the previous six months. Yet the unemployment rate keeps dropping precipitously, reaching 7.3 percent in August — the lowest since December 2008.

The reason? Between July and August, 312,000 people dropped out of the labor force. But because the official unemployment rate counts only those workers who are actively seeking work, the unemployment rate fell.

To put this in perspective: If the same percentage of adults were in the workforce today as when Barack Obama took office, the unemployment rate would be 10.8 percent.

Three reasons the U.S. labor force keeps shrinking

 

[Diogenes]

No, the unemployment rate itself is a bad measure.

Agreed. The participation rate is a much better measure of economic health.

 

[phattonez]

Sure. Because a lower unemployment rate is bad. And lowering it that way is like just causing a worse problem.

Or something.

No. You clearly don't understand. Unemployment is measured by ignoring those who have stopped looking for work. Yes, it's stupid. You want the real number? Here you go.

 

[Threegoofs]

A big reason for work force participation dropping?

Demographics.

Baby Boomers are starting to retire. The work force will be shrinking for the next 15 years.


Isn't it fun to pretend its partisan economic policies though? It's much easier on the brain.


http://www.cse.sc.edu/~buell/References/BureauLaborStatistics/art3full2014.pdf

 

[phattonez]

A big reason for work force participation dropping?

Demographics.

Baby Boomers are starting to retire. The work force will be shrinking for the next 15 years.


Isn't it fun to pretend its partisan economic policies though? It's much easier on the brain.


http://www.cse.sc.edu/~buell/References/BureauLaborStatistics/art3full2014.pdf

So it's just a coincidence that it dropped in 2007-2008 and hasn't come back? Puh-lease.

Far more horrifying is the fact that baby boomers are too poor to retire.

 

[Threegoofs]

So it's just a coincidence that it dropped in 2007-2008 and hasn't come back? Puh-lease.

Far more horrifying is the fact that baby boomers are too poor to retire.

I'm not sure if you're aware of this, but there was a pretty significant recession in 08. People on the cusp of retirement did it early, since no jobs were around.

And generally, when you retire, you tend not to come back later.

Workforce participation will probably not rise again for a decade no matter who is in office. Simple demographics and economics. If you look at the reasonable forecasts for unemployment back in 09, they didnt predict employment would return to pre-crash levels til 2014 or later. It's a lagging indicator.

 

[phattonez]

I'm not sure if you're aware of this, but there was a pretty significant recession in 08. People on the cusp of retirement did it early, since no jobs were around.

And generally, when you retire, you tend not to come back later.

Workforce participation will probably not rise again for a decade no matter who is in office. Simple demographics and economics. If you look at the reasonable forecasts for unemployment back in 09, they didnt predict employment would return to pre-crash levels til 2014 or later. It's a lagging indicator.

What exactly are people retiring on? They have no savings.

 

[phattonez]

Employment rate age 55-64.

Employment rate age 15-24.

Your claims about people retiring early are garbage. There is no evidence. Unemployment is affecting the young.

 

[specklebang]

What exactly are people retiring on? They have no savings.

Of course, I'm a "War Baby", not a "Baby Boomer" but I want to ask what makes you say that "they have no savings"? What is your source of information on this? I'm sure that SOME have no savings, but why do you assume that most don't?



HINT: I have savings. My sister has savings. My friend Tom doesn't have savings. Some saved, some didn't.

 

[specklebang]

Employment rate age 55-64.
Employment rate age 15-24.

Unemployment is affecting the young.

I started work at 15 but I had fake ID. How many 15 year olds are even "looking for work"?

 

[Threegoofs]

What exactly are people retiring on? They have no savings.

Gosh. I know at least a dozen people who retired over the last few years. Theyre doing OK.

Are you sure you are not projecting your own situation upon others?

 

[Threegoofs]

Employment rate age 55-64.
Your claims about people retiring early are garbage. There is no evidence. Unemployment is affecting the young.

Garbage? Really? Didja NOTICE the article I posted earlier explaining the demographics? The number of people (and percentage of the population) who hit retirement age is increasing every year in the US. 10,000 people EVERY DAY turn 65, and that number will stay the same for about the next 20 years.

And many young people left the workforce over the last few years to continue schooling. Enrollment was way up from 2009 on. When you cant get a job with a bachelors, you go to grad school. When you cant get a job as a carhop, you got to vocational school to be a plumber. More and more kids are going on to post secondary education. College enrollment has dropped in 2012 as the economy has improved. This the little tick up on your second graph. That should go up even more next year.

 

[winston53660]

I started work at 15 but I had fake ID. How many 15 year olds are even "looking for work"?

I lied about my age at 14. Worked the midnight show at the local theatre

 

[Threegoofs]

I lied about my age at 14. Worked the midnight show at the local theatre

I don't think hooking is part of official employment statistics... (Just kidding! I couldn't resist!)

 

[specklebang]

I lied about my age at 14. Worked the midnight show at the local theatre

Recently?

Maybe I'm wrong, I just couldn't see the logic of counting 15 year olds into a study.

 

[phattonez]

Gosh. I know at least a dozen people who retired over the last few years. Theyre doing OK.

Are you sure you are not projecting your own situation upon others?

This might be difficult, but that's called anecdotal evidence. It's proof of nothing.

 

[phattonez]

Garbage? Really? Didja NOTICE the article I posted earlier explaining the demographics? The number of people (and percentage of the population) who hit retirement age is increasing every year in the US. 10,000 people EVERY DAY turn 65, and that number will stay the same for about the next 20 years.

And many young people left the workforce over the last few years to continue schooling. Enrollment was way up from 2009 on. When you cant get a job with a bachelors, you go to grad school. When you cant get a job as a carhop, you got to vocational school to be a plumber. More and more kids are going on to post secondary education. College enrollment has dropped in 2012 as the economy has improved. This the little tick up on your second graph. That should go up even more next year.

Gee, do you think that might have to do with the fact that THERE ARE NO JOBS FOR THEM?! You're only proving my point. The old aren't retiring because they can't afford it. Unemployment isn't falling as I showed in my first chart. It's just that people have given up trying. And that includes the young who go to school instead because there are no jobs for them.

 

[phattonez]

I started work at 15 but I had fake ID. How many 15 year olds are even "looking for work"?

Better question. How many 15 year olds could find work if they tried?

 

[phattonez]

Agreed. The participation rate is a much better measure of economic health.

I actually disagree. Previous lower participation is indicative of a healthier economy where wives didn't have to work. It's indicative today of people not being able to find work when they want it.

 

[specklebang]

Better question. How many 15 year olds could find work if they tried?

Is it even legal to hire a 15 year old? How many 15 year olds are mature enough to actually show up and work?

Even in the 80s and 90s, every time I hired anyone young they always let me down. So, my company policy was we hired only women and they had to be over 40, overweight and/or handicapped. So, I sure wouldn't hire a 15 year old myself.

So, how can this be known enough to legitimately keep track of an unemployment rate among 15 year olds?

 

[phattonez]

Is it even legal to hire a 15 year old? How many 15 year olds are mature enough to actually show up and work?

Even in the 80s and 90s, every time I hired anyone young they always let me down. So, my company policy was we hired only women and they had to be over 40, overweight and/or handicapped. So, I sure wouldn't hire a 15 year old myself.

So, how can this be known enough to legitimately keep track of an unemployment rate among 15 year olds?

If you want to take issue with government numbers be my guest. I've done plenty of that myself.