Its time to pivot - The Trump running mate will be....

[upsideguy]

Except for those that will not read what is written on the wall, it seems the race is defined. This seems like a good time to survey everyone's early takes on Trump's would be VP. Time to pivot toward November...





Who do you think?

1) Christie - he is often standing behind him in a way that is almost creepy
2) Cruz - A senator with Texas values
3) Kasich - Ohio
4) Rubio - can little Marco deliver FL?
5) Palin - now there's a ticket that can generate gaffs at a record rate
6) Ernst - The Donald's got balls; Joanie knows how to cut them off
7) Scott - A bit of a dark horse, sort of speak, but well balances the demographics
8) Murkowski -
9) condoleezza rice - another balancing of the ticket: an intellectual to offset someone that isn't so intellectual
9) Other

 

[Kal'Stang]

Assuming he gets the nod... Other. He should offer the VP seat to a woman democrat. It'd cut the sails out of Hillary real quick if she happens to make it to November. (God forbid) It'd also cut the sails out of anyone that attempts to call him out as a misogynist. Of course, they prolly would anyways. :shrug: But I think it would gain him support across the woman's aisle and the democrat aisle. Well...at least from the non-diehard ones. If he was able to pull off convincing a black woman democrat to take the VP seat he would prolly be guaranteed the POTUS seat.

 

[upsideguy]

Personally, I think Christie would be a dumb choice... having two New Yorkers on the ticket won't go over well for those conservatives that hate New York values. That said, right now I think he has the inside track.

I think Trump needs a Senator that will help him navigate Washington and someone from middle America that will help him mitigate the liberal from NY perception. For that reason, I like Ernst and Scott. Paul Ryan would also be an interesting choice, but I don't see him taking the job.

Sarah Palin would be his dumbest choice (which, of course, has multiple meanings, but only one outcome: he certainly loses), but always makes for a fun discussion.

I probably should have put Rice on the poll... she would interesting.

 

[Captain Adverse]

I'd say (if he is smart) Kasich.

That would salve the anti-Trump Republican establishment, gain him the critical State of Ohio, and also help with crossover Democrat and moderate/liberal Independents.

I not sure having one of those woman on the ticket as VP will have much sway with Democratic women voters, although it can't hurt much (except maybe costing Ohio).

 

[upsideguy]

Assuming he gets the nod... Other. He should offer the VP seat to a woman democrat. It'd cut the sails out of Hillary real quick if she happens to make it to November. (God forbid) It'd also cut the sails out of anyone that attempts to call him out as a misogynist. Of course, they prolly would anyways. :shrug: But I think it would gain him support across the woman's aisle and the democrat aisle. Well...at least from the non-diehard ones. If he was able to pull off convincing a black woman democrat to take the VP seat he would prolly be guaranteed the POTUS seat.

Good thought, but I can't see a real democrat running with him.

 

[disneydude]

Except for those that will not read what is written on the wall, it seems the race is defined. This seems like a good time to survey everyone's early takes on Trump's would be VP. Time to pivot toward November...

View attachment 67200625





Who do you think?

1) Christie - he is often standing behind him in a way that is almost creepy
2) Cruz - A senator with Texas values
3) Kasich - Ohio
4) Rubio - can little Marco deliver FL?
5) Palin - now there's a ticket that can generate gaffs at a record rate
6) Ernst - The Donald's got balls; Joanie knows how to cut them off
7) Scott - A bit of a dark horse, sort of speak, but well balances the demographics
8) Murkowski -
9) Other

How would little Marco deliver Florida in the GE when he couldn't even carry it....and even couldn't even come in second during the primaries?

 

[Kal'Stang]

Good thought, but I can't see a real democrat running with him.

Meh, I can. Historically he IS a democrat. Personally I think he's just saying everything he is because he knows how to manipulate people. I don't think he means a word of it.

 

[upsideguy]

How would little Marco deliver Florida in the GE when he couldn't even carry it....and even couldn't even come in second during the primaries?

Good question.... I don't think he can. Frankly, the notion of a VP candidate delivering a state I think is more myth than reality... Similarly, the idea that a guy can deliver the Hispanic vote because he speaks Spanish is also a myth.

 

[disneydude]

Trump will definitely pick a woman. He is going to need to in order to stop the hemorrhaging of women voters in the GE. Trump will get a certain amount of white female Republican voters....but probably not as many as Romney got....he can probably prevent losing many if he selects a strong woman candidate.

 

[disneydude]

Good question.... I don't think he can. Frankly, the notion of a VP candidate delivering a state I think is more myth than reality... Similarly, the idea that a guy can deliver the Hispanic vote because he speaks Spanish is also a myth.

Generally I agree....but I do think that sometimes a STRONG VP candidate can help deliver his home state. Someone like Kasich probably could deliver Ohio....but Mr. 1 in 43 would probably not deliver much more. A Spanish speaker like Rubio is also not likely to deliver many latinos, because he doesn't share their politics and values (as a group)...someone like Julian Castro would...not just because he shares their culture and language, but because they can relate to him and they agree with his politics and values.

 

[upsideguy]

Generally I agree....but I do think that sometimes a STRONG VP candidate can help deliver his home state. Someone like Kasich probably could deliver Ohio....but Mr. 1 in 43 would probably not deliver much more. A Spanish speaker like Rubio is also not likely to deliver many latinos, because he doesn't share their politics and values (as a group)...someone like Julian Castro would...not just because he shares their culture and language, but because they can relate to him and they agree with his politics and values.

I agree. The myths are that someone can deliver their home state and that a spanish speaking candidate will deliver latinos. If you have a popular local politician, then they might deliver the home state. Rubio isn't all that popular in FL. Moreover, Rubio is a Cuban Republican. He is very unlikely to impress a Central American origined Latino because his politics are not aligned.

 

[Orly?]

If he was able to pull off convincing a black woman democrat to take the VP seat he would prolly be guaranteed the POTUS seat.

Isn't that pathetic?

Being that racist and sexist is a sure way to win.. Pretty disgusting..

 

[chuckiechan]

Trump has been talking nice about"Little Marco". But Kasich would be a good choice,too.

And Christie as A.G.

Dismantling and jailing the Clinton Foundation operatives one by one.

 

[Lutherf]

He'll pick Jane Fonda.

 

[upsideguy]

He'll pick Jane Fonda.

As good a choice as any.... putting lipstick on a pig..

 

[Crovax]

Personally, I think Christie would be a dumb choice... having two New Yorkers on the ticket won't go over well for those conservatives that hate New York values. That said, right now I think he has the inside track.

I think Trump needs a Senator that will help him navigate Washington and someone from middle America that will help him mitigate the liberal from NY perception. For that reason, I like Ernst and Scott. Paul Ryan would also be an interesting choice, but I don't see him taking the job.

Sarah Palin would be his dumbest choice (which, of course, has multiple meanings, but only one outcome: he certainly loses), but always makes for a fun discussion.

I probably should have put Rice on the poll... she would interesting.

I think its dumb that people cant tell the difference between New York and New Jersey

 

[Crovax]

I'd say (if he is smart) Kasich.

That would salve the anti-Trump Republican establishment, gain him the critical State of Ohio, and also help with crossover Democrat and moderate/liberal Independents.

I not sure having one of those woman on the ticket as VP will have much sway with Democratic women voters, although it can't hurt much (except maybe costing Ohio).

Really?

The Overrated Vice Presidential Home-State Effect | FiveThirtyEight

Why VPs Matter Less Than You Think - POLITICO Magazine

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/04/myth-of-the-battleground-state-vp-candidate.html

 

[VanceMack]

Id expect him to look outside of the mainstream. Wouldnt be surprised to see him court Susana Martinez or an even bigger swing with someone like Melissa Melendez. Then again...dood could enlist Mark Cuban.

 

[Frank Apisa]

It will definitely NOT be Christie. In fact, I would not be surprised if Christie is shut out of any administration job if Trump were elected. (I think it is almost certain he will not be elected president!)

Considering his political acumen, I would not be surprised to have Trump pick one of his daughters as his veep.

 

[OpportunityCost]

It will definitely NOT be Christie. In fact, I would not be surprised if Christie is shut out of any administration job if Trump were elected. (I think it is almost certain he will not be elected president!)

Considering his political acumen, I would not be surprised to have Trump pick one of his daughters as his veep.

There are times when you read things very well. This is not one of those times. Everyone has stupidly underestimated Trump over and over, the difference is some have learned from that mistake, you haven't.

 

[Cyrylek]

Murkowski is not from Ark. - she is from Alaska. And I don't see her - or anyone sane and half-decent- being on the ticket with The Donald.

 

[Captain Adverse]

Really?

Yes, really.

Since 1920, major-party nominees for president have carried their running mate’s home state 65 percent of the time; the percentage is slightly higher than that, 72 percent in elections since World War II.

The Overrated Vice Presidential Home-State Effect | FiveThirtyEight

While this article asks "How much of a push a vice presidential candidate gives to a nominee relative to how he would do otherwise?" recall that Trump got whomped in Ohio by Kasich with an 11% and Ohio is currently worth 18 electoral votes.

As for the second article from Politico? They claim (I did not read the book of course) they used data from 1884 - 2012 and made some statement's about the validity of the value of VP candidates. Note the above article states that more recently (1920 - present) the data shows VP's carried home states 65% - 72% of the time. Your second article dismisses this fact by saying it is Presidential candidates and not VP who win their home states more often. Even if we dismiss the first articles info and accept this second articles conclusions, in the case of Trump he needs a solid Republican like Kasich if he wants Ohio simply based on the 11% difference he lost by in that State.

Your third article? It's just a regurgitation of the Politico article:

...now comes a reputable academic study, summarized by its authors in Politico Magazine, concluding that Veep candidates have remarkably little influence on the voting decisions of their fellow home-state citizens.

The Myth of the Battleground-State VP Candidate -- NYMag[/QUOTE]

My opinion stands. If Trump wants Ohio then Kasich is his choice.

On the other hand if he thinks a woman VP candidate would help throughout the USA fine, although I doubt that will have much effect.

 

[OpportunityCost]

Gonna throw a few names out there see what you folks think:

Branstad - Iowa governor, longest serving governor in American history.
Sandoval - Nevada governor, floated as a possible SCOTUS nominee, but he declined, ending speculation
Scott Walker - proven capable of selling conservative policy in Wisconsin.

And just because, General James Mattis. He has more gravitas than anyone in America!

 

[upsideguy]

I think its dumb that people cant tell the difference between New York and New Jersey

I am from NY, I know the difference. But, the differences are subtle and not practical.

Christie is from Newark and spent most of his career in Northern NJ, which are suburbs of NYC and a part of the NY metro area. May be point out that the NY Giants and the NY Jets play their games in NJ. Actually, people that get hung up on the distinction that because you reside the west side of the Hudson River you are are not a New Yorker are not really familiar with the area. We are talking about two guys from the New York Metropolitan area; we are talking about two New Yorkers.

So, to put it in Texan terms, you have can have a ticket of a guy from Dallas and a guy from Ft Worth and tell us to you are blue in the face how they have different backgrounds, but to everyone else, they are two guys from the Metroplex; far more vanilla than neopolitan.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_metropolitan_area

 

[jimbo]

Assuming he gets the nod... Other. He should offer the VP seat to a woman democrat. It'd cut the sails out of Hillary real quick if she happens to make it to November. (God forbid) It'd also cut the sails out of anyone that attempts to call him out as a misogynist. Of course, they prolly would anyways. :shrug: But I think it would gain him support across the woman's aisle and the democrat aisle. Well...at least from the non-diehard ones. If he was able to pull off convincing a black woman democrat to take the VP seat he would prolly be guaranteed the POTUS seat.

Nope. The VP should not be chosen due to any of the PC correct reasons, but rather as the person most capable of doing the job.